UNI88 wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 9:58 am
JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Fri May 29, 2020 5:33 pm
Remember guys that deniers with respect to how serious this is have been comparing an evolving event with completed historical events since the beginning. When public health officials first started warning about this because they were looking at what WOULD happen with a highly contagious pathogen people were comparing the case and death counts to the seasonal flu estimates. Once it became clear that it's a lot more serious situation than the seasonal flu thing we started seeing comparisons to the Asian and Hong Kong flu.
Once it became clear that the death count is going to exceed the estimates for the Asian and Hong Kong flu we started seeing "but the populations was smaller then."
It is very likely that when all is said and done that argument is not going to hold up either.
I am a person who started off saying this was not as much of a risk as the seasonal flu. But as the data came in I had to admit that it is a hell of a lot more serious. What is it about people that they can't just admit that this is a very serious pandemic?
John, please explain to me how those arguments are not going to hold up? And you completely dismissed them in advance so I don't want some argument that shows that they're not quite as relevant.
I said it's not likely that the arguments about the Asian and Hong Kong flu being worse when population is taken into account will hold up when all is said and done.
I don't think it's likely that they will because:
1) The numbers people are using for the Asian and Hong Kong flu pandemics are estimates and what we are dealing with in referring to COVID-19 right now is a count. At some point there will be an estimate of COVID-19 deaths that will be made in a manner similar to that used for estimating flu deaths. The estimated number will be a lot higher than the counted number (just as it is with the flu).
2) The COVID-19 thing is in progress. We are still recording around 1,000 deaths per day. AND it's reasonable to think we are going to have a second wave in the fall/winter.
I didn't say I know for 100% certain that the arguments about the Asian flu and the Hong Kong flu will not hold up. I said it is not LIKELY that they will. I think that if you had to bet you would do well to bet that, when all is said and done, the ESTIMATED per capita death toll in the United States for this COVID-19 thing will be greater than it was for either the Asian flu or the Hong Kong flu.