Coronavirus COVID-19

[Gil Dobie]

This is a way to manage statistics to your favor. Maybe the vulnerable people have been in personal lockdown, and that keeps the death percentage down. It's just as deadly to those people, maybe the percentage of deaths is less than originally estimated. A gun is just as deadly, even if no one is shot.

I’m not managing anything, Gil. I’ve been clear from the start that none of this changes the NUMBER of deaths. It just changes the LIKELIHOOD of death if 10 or 20x the number of people actually get the virus.

And I have no idea what you’re saying about an inanimate object. There’s nothing inherently dangerous about a firearm.

Covid did not get less deadly because a higher percentage are found to be living thru it. It's still just as deadly. The same people are going to get very sick and/or die, not the same percentage. I'll use a rattle snake. People live thru rattle snake bites, but if no one is bit, the snake is just as deadly.

[BDKJMU]

The lesson is that we underestimated it and got our shit together too late.

[kalm]

The lesson is that we underestimated it and got our shit together too late.

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

[kalm]

Some positive things come out of pandemics too...

“According to historian Robert Tombs, author of The English and Their History, one of the many repercussions was especially pertinent to establishments like Ye Olde Fighting Cocks: the rise of pub culture in England.

When the plague arrived in 1348, drinking beer was already a fundamental component of Englishness. In his tome, Tombs writes that the English fighting the Norman invaders at Hastings in 1066 were suffering from hangovers. Drinking was even enshrined into the Magna Carta of 1215, which “called for uniform measures of ale.”


Drinking pre-Black Death, though, was comparably amateurish. In Man Walks Into a Pub: A Sociable History of Beer, beer journalist Pete Brown writes that “Society revolved around popular celebrations known as ‘ales’: bride-ales, church-ales … were gatherings where plenty of alcohol was drunk, and they frequently degenerated into mayhem.” Anyone could brew up a batch of ale in their home, and standards and strengths varied wildly. Homebrewed ale was advertised with “an ale stake,” Brown adds, which consisted of “a pole covered with some kind of foliage above the door.“


https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/w ... -qHh4YVwjU

[∞∞∞]

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

Trying?

We dressed the pee-wee team against the Chiefs, it's the end of 1st and the score is 350-0, and we still think the kids can win.

The response has been embarrassing and delusional.

[kalm]

“Herd immunity” has been replacing “it’s the flu”. Neither are proven yet.

The study's results have provided further fuel for the critics of the Swedish approach. With 39.57 deaths per 100,000, Sweden's mortality rate is not only higher than that of the U.S. (30.02 deaths per 100,000) but also exponentially higher than those of its neighbors Norway (4.42 per 100,000) and Finland (5.58 per 100,000), which both enacted strict lockdown measures, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University....

For some anti-lockdown protesters in the U.S., "Be like Sweden" has become a rallying cry at protests. But given the political, social and cultural differences between the two countries, simply adopting the Swedish model might not work....

"Despite the comprehensive measures both in Sweden and abroad, the economic consequences of the pandemic will be considerable," the Riksbank said in a statement in April. "The consequences for the economy will vary depending on how long the spread of infection continues and on how long the restrictions implemented to slow it down are in place."

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/86192354 ... mpaign=npr

[Gil Dobie]

Watching an interview with a Bethesda nurse, Minnesota COVID hospital. She said PPE is dwindling. Only given to people that need it the most.

[UNI88]

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

I agree with Jelly that we did underestimate it early. And unlike the leftists, I'm willing to place the initial responsibility for that where it belongs, with China and the WHO. After that Trump and others on both sides tripped over their dicks in their responses and there is the special case of Cuomo who fell off a cliff and should have broken his neck but somehow came through unscathed.

So we underestimated it early and then responded but there is still a lot we don't know about the virus so at this point it is premature to say that we are underestimating it. It's possible that some are overestimating it.

And those of you advocating for continued lockdowns haven't answered my question about how we're realistically going to pay for them.

[AshevilleApp]

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

I agree with Jelly that we did underestimate it early. And unlike the leftists, I'm willing to place the initial responsibility for that where it belongs, with China and the WHO. After that Trump and others on both sides tripped over their dicks in their responses and there is the special case of Cuomo who fell off a cliff and should have broken his neck but somehow came through unscathed.

So we underestimated it early and then responded but there is still a lot we don't know about the virus so at this point it is premature to say that we are underestimating it. It's possible that some are overestimating it.

And those of you advocating for continued lockdowns haven't answered my question about how we're realistically going to pay for them.

Good question, we will eventually have to chance reopening. Some states have started the process already. NC is in phase 2 right now. We've also seen a spike in the number of new cases and deaths. It could just be that we have more access to testing as well.

I've also noticed that those who favor reopening here usually include the caveat of "proper protocols and safety measures in place". What exactly would they be and how would it be timed? Do we maintain social distancing? Wearing masks? Limited capacity for restaurants, bars and gyms? Just say fuck it and roll the dice? Again I know how it is being implemented here, but am curious how others would go about it.

[BDKJMU]

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

This thing has been over estimated by the fear porn peddlers since the beginning..

[kalm]

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

I agree with Jelly that we did underestimate it early. And unlike the leftists, I'm willing to place the initial responsibility for that where it belongs, with China and the WHO. After that Trump and others on both sides tripped over their dicks in their responses and there is the special case of Cuomo who fell off a cliff and should have broken his neck but somehow came through unscathed.

So we underestimated it early and then responded but there is still a lot we don't know about the virus so at this point it is premature to say that we are underestimating it. It's possible that some are overestimating it.

And those of you advocating for continued lockdowns haven't answered my question about how we're realistically going to pay for them.

Nobody wants continued lockdowns.

We pay for it by printing money. We guaranteed private equity firms and companies like Boeing first with less strings attached regarding keeping workers whole than the rules that applied with PPP. So the investor class (which I’m also a part of) were protected but that has less to do with stimulus in a consumer based economy than it does political favors. I’m still waiting to see if any of the EIDL loans will be forgivable.

I get the long term concerns over debt but the leverage is still there at least for now.

Phased in reopening is happening regardless and will continue. The question remains mid and long term economic impacts of re-closures and productivity interruptions. I think it’s looking better on both fronts but will be a rollercoaster with additional casualties.

In other words...we ain’t going back to normal but if we’re smart and innovative we can still ride the storm out.

[mainejeff]

Trump can do no wrong!

[kalm]

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

This thing has been over estimated by the fear porn peddlers since the beginning..

And you know that because?

[SDHornet]

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

The economy was literally shutdown over this, and people think we underestimated it?

[SDHornet]

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

This thing has been over estimated by the fear porn peddlers since the beginning..

Not true, the fear porn didn't start until Trump started taking actions against the Chinese Flu. Then the peddlers went full fear porn retard about the virus.

[kalm]

Why does that point make you suspicious?

Christ. We are still trying to underestimate it.

The economy was literally shutdown over this, and people think we underestimated it?

Something something 15 cases and it will be zero in days...or it will be gone by summer....it’s time to open back up.

You’re smarter than this, SD.

[SDHornet]

The economy was literally shutdown over this, and people think we underestimated it?

Something something 15 cases and it will be zero in days...or it will be gone by summer....it’s time to open back up.

You’re smarter than this, SD.

And compare one of Trumps stupid tweets to what actually happened. Go ahead, I'll wait.

[UNI88]

I agree with Jelly that we did underestimate it early. And unlike the leftists, I'm willing to place the initial responsibility for that where it belongs, with China and the WHO. After that Trump and others on both sides tripped over their dicks in their responses and there is the special case of Cuomo who fell off a cliff and should have broken his neck but somehow came through unscathed.

So we underestimated it early and then responded but there is still a lot we don't know about the virus so at this point it is premature to say that we are underestimating it. It's possible that some are overestimating it.

And those of you advocating for continued lockdowns haven't answered my question about how we're realistically going to pay for them.

Nobody wants continued lockdowns.

We pay for it by printing money. We guaranteed private equity firms and companies like Boeing first with less strings attached regarding keeping workers whole than the rules that applied with PPP. So the investor class (which I’m also a part of) were protected but that has less to do with stimulus in a consumer based economy than it does political favors. I’m still waiting to see if any of the EIDL loans will be forgivable.

I get the long term concerns over debt but the leverage is still there at least for now.

Phased in reopening is happening regardless and will continue. The question remains mid and long term economic impacts of re-closures and productivity interruptions. I think it’s looking better on both fronts but will be a rollercoaster with additional casualties.

In other words...we ain’t going back to normal but if we’re smart and innovative we can still ride the storm out.

We can only print so much money. At some point, that money will start to become worthless and inflation will skyrocket. Plus we'll be sticking forcing our kids, grandkids, and great-grandkids to pay the interest on that debt with the income they haven't even earned yet. Trip likes to bitch about Boomers spending young people's money on themselves, how is this different?

And the number of governments, organizations, and people asking for money is going to grow logarithmically the longer this goes on. And those government bodies that are so much more ethical then corporations are going to try and stick the federal government (and ultimately our kids, grandkids, and great-grandkids) with the costs of bailing out their pension systems and other financial disasters of their own making. Look at what Illinois wants if you doubt me.

I think we should be seriously considering finding a way to stick China with the cost of any required stimulus. We should at least write down our debt to them by the amounts we're spending.

[kalm]

Nobody wants continued lockdowns.

We pay for it by printing money. We guaranteed private equity firms and companies like Boeing first with less strings attached regarding keeping workers whole than the rules that applied with PPP. So the investor class (which I’m also a part of) were protected but that has less to do with stimulus in a consumer based economy than it does political favors. I’m still waiting to see if any of the EIDL loans will be forgivable.

I get the long term concerns over debt but the leverage is still there at least for now.

Phased in reopening is happening regardless and will continue. The question remains mid and long term economic impacts of re-closures and productivity interruptions. I think it’s looking better on both fronts but will be a rollercoaster with additional casualties.

In other words...we ain’t going back to normal but if we’re smart and innovative we can still ride the storm out.

We can only print so much money. At some point, that money will start to become worthless and inflation will skyrocket. Plus we'll be sticking forcing our kids, grandkids, and great-grandkids to pay the interest on that debt with the income they haven't even earned yet. Trip likes to bitch about Boomers spending young people's money on themselves, how is this different?

And the number of governments, organizations, and people asking for money is going to grow logarithmically the longer this goes on. And those government bodies that are so much more ethical then corporations are going to try and stick the federal government (and ultimately our kids, grandkids, and great-grandkids) with the costs of bailing out their pension systems and other financial disasters of their own making. Look at what Illinois wants if you doubt me.

I think we should be seriously considering finding a way to stick China with the cost of any required stimulus. We should at least write down our debt to them by the amounts we're spending.

Agree...especially on that last point.

This...is a terrific listen for anyone who fancies history in light of today’s crisis. It even speaks to your point about Trip and Boomers. I’d love to hear your feedback on it as well as the history buffs on the board like Ganny. It provides some really cool economic framework.

[JohnStOnge]

I’m not managing anything, Gil. I’ve been clear from the start that none of this changes the NUMBER of deaths. It just changes the LIKELIHOOD of death if 10 or 20x the number of people actually get the virus.

And I have no idea what you’re saying about an inanimate object. There’s nothing inherently dangerous about a firearm.

Covid did not get less deadly because a higher percentage are found to be living thru it. It's still just as deadly. The same people are going to get very sick and/or die, not the same percentage. I'll use a rattle snake. People live thru rattle snake bites, but if no one is bit, the snake is just as deadly.

I think when all is said and done it will be concluded that COVID-19 has a higher death rate than influenza does. Don't know about the Spanish flu back in 1918. But certainly higher than seasonal flu and probably higher than the Asian flu or the Hong Kong flu. I linked this article once but I will link it again:

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

Now, it's true that it impacts high risk people in general and older people in particular but so does influenza. Thankfully, COVID-19 does not appear to be a big threat to the very young as a population. But it does appear to be a significant threat threat to people in the 45 through 65 age group.

[kalm]

Covid did not get less deadly because a higher percentage are found to be living thru it. It's still just as deadly. The same people are going to get very sick and/or die, not the same percentage. I'll use a rattle snake. People live thru rattle snake bites, but if no one is bit, the snake is just as deadly.

I think when all is said and done it will be concluded that COVID-19 has a higher death rate than influenza does. Don't know about the Spanish flu back in 1918. But certainly higher than seasonal flu and probably higher than the Asian flu or the Hong Kong flu. I linked this article once but I will link it again:

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

Now, it's true that it impacts high risk people in general and older people in particular but so does influenza. Thankfully, COVID-19 does not appear to be a big threat to the very young as a population. But it does appear to be a significant threat threat to people in the 45 through 65 age group.

It’s a greater threat for recovery but the confirmed case rate may not be that great of a gap. Preliminary study shows 40% of cases in WA state, post peak are under 40. Without comprehensive testing that number could be skewed but it’s another example of how we’re still learning...

https://www.king5.com/mobile/article/ne ... 29ae06be7f

[AZGrizFan]

Covid did not get less deadly because a higher percentage are found to be living thru it. It's still just as deadly. The same people are going to get very sick and/or die, not the same percentage. I'll use a rattle snake. People live thru rattle snake bites, but if no one is bit, the snake is just as deadly.

I think when all is said and done it will be concluded that COVID-19 has a higher death rate than influenza does. Don't know about the Spanish flu back in 1918. But certainly higher than seasonal flu and probably higher than the Asian flu or the Hong Kong flu. I linked this article once but I will link it again:

Yeah it will, especially when anybody who dies is counted as a COVID death. Gotta pump those numbers up!

[Skjellyfetti]

There will be estimates. Just like there are with the flu.

[Gil Dobie]

I think when all is said and done it will be concluded that COVID-19 has a higher death rate than influenza does. Don't know about the Spanish flu back in 1918. But certainly higher than seasonal flu and probably higher than the Asian flu or the Hong Kong flu. I linked this article once but I will link it again:

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

Now, it's true that it impacts high risk people in general and older people in particular but so does influenza. Thankfully, COVID-19 does not appear to be a big threat to the very young as a population. But it does appear to be a significant threat threat to people in the 45 through 65 age group.

It’s a greater threat for recovery but the confirmed case rate may not be that great of a gap. Preliminary study shows 40% of cases in WA state, post peak are under 40. Without comprehensive testing that number could be skewed but it’s another example of how we’re still learning...

https://www.king5.com/mobile/article/ne ... 29ae06be7f

I just looked at the stats for my county and 40 and under is the highest number of cases, with elderly people being the highest number of deaths. That's why masks are important when being around the vulnerable at home and in public places.

[Ibanez]

Did you register with Selective Service?

Well, he’s a Marine, so I guess we know the answer to that.....

He said Army a few months ago.