2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[kalm]

You think the right is going to make a comeback regarding the culture wars or that they simply no longer matter when it comes to elections?

Neither. The right still matters. They are generally more motivated to vote than the left.

My bad. I meant to ask do culture wars even matter now? It doesn’t seem like gay marriage, weed, and racism are going to move the needle as much anymore.

[Ivytalk]

Neither. The right still matters. They are generally more motivated to vote than the left.

My bad. I meant to ask do culture wars even matter now? It doesn’t seem like gay marriage, weed, and racism are going to move the needle as much anymore.

I agree with that. Heck, I evolved on gay marriage, thanks to my progressive daughter (who is marrying her boyfriend of 7+ years in June).

[JohnStOnge]

Just saw something that relates to previous posts I've made about the handwriting being on the wall for Republicans. You can see it at the RealClearPolitics page at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... _election/. Scroll down to the February 28 Quinnipiac poll of Texas for Trump vs. various Democrat candidates. The majority of respondents went for Trump in every case. But it was sometimes very close and never overwhelming. It was Trump over Biden by 1. Also Trump by 1 over O'Rourke. Trump by 2 over Sanders. The other extreme was Trump by 7 over Warren and Harris.

Look, when you see a quality poll like Quinnipiac with respondents favoring the Republican President over somebody like Elizabeth Warren by 7 percentage points you either realize that Texas is slipping away for Republicans over time or you are in denial.

What do you think polls like that would look like for Trump in the two big Electoral College States that have been reliably Democrat? I think you know. You'd probably see any Democrat you choose to match Trump up against up by 20 percentage points or more over Trump in California or New York.

Texas is moving towards the Democrat column in the electoral college. And when that happens it's all over.

[CID1990]

The world’s least self-aware man appears to be throwing his hat in the ring:

https://hotair.com/archives/2019/04/01/ ... y-2020-im/


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[Ivytalk]

The world’s least self-aware man appears to be throwing his hat in the ring:

https://hotair.com/archives/2019/04/01/ ... y-2020-im/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I thought you were talking about JSO.

[BDKJMU]

The world’s least self-aware man appears to be throwing his hat in the ring:

https://hotair.com/archives/2019/04/01/ ... y-2020-im/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He must have been uncoordinated as fuck in his youth. I’ve seen where Comey, 58, is reporteldy 6’8”, which means he was probably 6’9”-6’10” at William and Mary in the late 70s/early 80s. How the fuck can you be that tall back then (when players probably averaged an inch or 2 less than they do now) and not play college basketball at a mid major?

[AZGrizFan]

Just saw something that relates to previous posts I've made about the handwriting being on the wall for Republicans. You can see it at the RealClearPolitics page at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... _election/. Scroll down to the February 28 Quinnipiac poll of Texas for Trump vs. various Democrat candidates. The majority of respondents went for Trump in every case. But it was sometimes very close and never overwhelming. It was Trump over Biden by 1. Also Trump by 1 over O'Rourke. Trump by 2 over Sanders. The other extreme was Trump by 7 over Warren and Harris.

Look, when you see a quality poll like Quinnipiac with respondents favoring the Republican President over somebody like Elizabeth Warren by 7 percentage points you either realize that Texas is slipping away for Republicans over time or you are in denial.

What do you think polls like that would look like for Trump in the two big Electoral College States that have been reliably Democrat? I think you know. You'd probably see any Democrat you choose to match Trump up against up by 20 percentage points or more over Trump in California or New York.

Texas is moving towards the Democrat column in the electoral college. And when that happens it's all over.

Yes. Any Dem will win by 20 points in NY and Commiefornia. So what? That’s what Hildabeast did and she’s still not your president. What, exactly, is your point here, except to point out that Trump is still in the lead for getting reelected....

[Pwns]

Buttgig fields a question about free college.

"I don't support free college cuz I'm so progressive and that would hurt poor people."

Not surprising from a guy who doesn't want to have a platform with specific policy proposals in it.

[SDHornet]

Buttgig fields a question about free college.

"I don't support free college cuz I'm so progressive and that would hurt poor people."

Not surprising from a guy who doesn't want to have a platform with specific policy proposals in it.

When leftist ideals mindfuck themselves...

[JohnStOnge]

Just saw something that relates to previous posts I've made about the handwriting being on the wall for Republicans. You can see it at the RealClearPolitics page at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... _election/. Scroll down to the February 28 Quinnipiac poll of Texas for Trump vs. various Democrat candidates. The majority of respondents went for Trump in every case. But it was sometimes very close and never overwhelming. It was Trump over Biden by 1. Also Trump by 1 over O'Rourke. Trump by 2 over Sanders. The other extreme was Trump by 7 over Warren and Harris.

Look, when you see a quality poll like Quinnipiac with respondents favoring the Republican President over somebody like Elizabeth Warren by 7 percentage points you either realize that Texas is slipping away for Republicans over time or you are in denial.

What do you think polls like that would look like for Trump in the two big Electoral College States that have been reliably Democrat? I think you know. You'd probably see any Democrat you choose to match Trump up against up by 20 percentage points or more over Trump in California or New York.

Texas is moving towards the Democrat column in the electoral college. And when that happens it's all over.

Yes. Any Dem will win by 20 points in NY and Commiefornia. So what? That’s what Hildabeast did and she’s still not your president. What, exactly, is your point here, except to point out that Trump is still in the lead for getting reelected....

My point is that the four biggest electoral prizes are California, Texas, New York, and Florida. California and New York are firmly in the Democrat column. Florida flips back and forth. Texas has been firmly in the Republican column for a while but the margin has been narrowing. Now we are seeing a situation where every Democrat candidate polled is within 7 percent of the incumbent Republican President among respondents and a couple are within 1 point. The Republicans are hanging on by their fingernails. Texas is going to flip to being reliably Democrat. It is not a question of if. It's just a question of when. And when that happens it's curtains for the Republican Party in the electoral college.

[AZGrizFan]

Yes. Any Dem will win by 20 points in NY and Commiefornia. So what? That’s what Hildabeast did and she’s still not your president. What, exactly, is your point here, except to point out that Trump is still in the lead for getting reelected....

My point is that the four biggest electoral prizes are California, Texas, New York, and Florida. California and New York are firmly in the Democrat column. Florida flips back and forth. Texas has been firmly in the Republican column for a while but the margin has been narrowing. Now we are seeing a situation where every Democrat candidate polled is within 7 percent of the incumbent Republican President among respondents and a couple are within 1 point. The Republicans are hanging on by their fingernails. Texas is going to flip to being reliably Democrat. It is not a question of if. It's just a question of when. And when that happens it's curtains for the Republican Party in the electoral college.

Question: If Texas is “trending” to eventually flip, how do you explain FL flipping back and forth? How does ANY state, once Blue, EVER turn red again?

[SDHornet]

My point is that the four biggest electoral prizes are California, Texas, New York, and Florida. California and New York are firmly in the Democrat column. Florida flips back and forth. Texas has been firmly in the Republican column for a while but the margin has been narrowing. Now we are seeing a situation where every Democrat candidate polled is within 7 percent of the incumbent Republican President among respondents and a couple are within 1 point. The Republicans are hanging on by their fingernails. Texas is going to flip to being reliably Democrat. It is not a question of if. It's just a question of when. And when that happens it's curtains for the Republican Party in the electoral college.

Question: If Texas is “trending” to eventually flip, how do you explain FL flipping back and forth? How does ANY state, once Blue, EVER turn red again?

The polls say Texas is done for, and as we all know the polls are never wrong.

[GannonFan]

My point is that the four biggest electoral prizes are California, Texas, New York, and Florida. California and New York are firmly in the Democrat column. Florida flips back and forth. Texas has been firmly in the Republican column for a while but the margin has been narrowing. Now we are seeing a situation where every Democrat candidate polled is within 7 percent of the incumbent Republican President among respondents and a couple are within 1 point. The Republicans are hanging on by their fingernails. Texas is going to flip to being reliably Democrat. It is not a question of if. It's just a question of when. And when that happens it's curtains for the Republican Party in the electoral college.

Question: If Texas is “trending” to eventually flip, how do you explain FL flipping back and forth? How does ANY state, once Blue, EVER turn red again?

One of JSO's biggest flaws is his inability to see more than one step in front of him. He has this weird notion that the next step will be the last step and things will never change after it. Hence his weird notion that there will be one-party control, Democrats, for decades to come. Nevermind that we've never had one party control like that ever in the past 200+ years, but that's what you get to when you hyper-focus on the very next step but ignore what comes after it. Like I said, weird.

[CID1990]

Question: If Texas is “trending” to eventually flip, how do you explain FL flipping back and forth? How does ANY state, once Blue, EVER turn red again?

One of JSO's biggest flaws is his inability to see more than one step in front of him. He has this weird notion that the next step will be the last step and things will never change after it. Hence his weird notion that there will be one-party control, Democrats, for decades to come. Nevermind that we've never had one party control like that ever in the past 200+ years, but that's what you get to when you hyper-focus on the very next step but ignore what comes after it. Like I said, weird.

That's a classic characteristic of OCD, which 93, Ivy and I properly diagnosed him with over beers and crabs at Sambo's a couple years ago.

[Ivytalk]

My point is that the four biggest electoral prizes are California, Texas, New York, and Florida. California and New York are firmly in the Democrat column. Florida flips back and forth. Texas has been firmly in the Republican column for a while but the margin has been narrowing. Now we are seeing a situation where every Democrat candidate polled is within 7 percent of the incumbent Republican President among respondents and a couple are within 1 point. The Republicans are hanging on by their fingernails. Texas is going to flip to being reliably Democrat. It is not a question of if. It's just a question of when. And when that happens it's curtains for the Republican Party in the electoral college.

Question: If Texas is “trending” to eventually flip, how do you explain FL flipping back and forth? How does ANY state, once Blue, EVER turn red again?

Make them more like Utah: much whiter, richer, and less unionized.

[Pwns]

Question for the board donks, since I keep seeing this being brought up on liberal websites.

Which of the following statements are true?

1. Being female or non-white is a disadvantage when running against Trump.

2. The 2020 election is extremely important because of Trump/Climate Change/Income inequality/ whatever.

3. White men should step aside and give a woman or a "person of color" a chance.

You can accept 2 of these 3, but a lot of leftists seem to want all of them to be true.

[JohnStOnge]

Question: If Texas is “trending” to eventually flip, how do you explain FL flipping back and forth? How does ANY state, once Blue, EVER turn red again?

One of JSO's biggest flaws is his inability to see more than one step in front of him. He has this weird notion that the next step will be the last step and things will never change after it. Hence his weird notion that there will be one-party control, Democrats, for decades to come. Nevermind that we've never had one party control like that ever in the past 200+ years, but that's what you get to when you hyper-focus on the very next step but ignore what comes after it. Like I said, weird.

Not at all. I understand that there is variability and a trend doesn't mean a straight unwavering line. If Florida is historically moving towards the Democrat column, for instance, you would expect there to be a period where it moves back and forth.

BTW we have had a major political party die before.

Unless something changes with the basic way non Whites vote Florida and Texas will both become reliably Democrat.

Of course, you could think maybe something will change with the basic way in which non Whites vote. That's always possible. But no Republican has won the non White vote since the onset of exit polling in 1976 and the closest they've come nationally was G.W. Bush losing among non Whites by 39 percentage points in 2004. It's never been close.

Also I've never seen it close in any State. This last time Clinton beat Trump among non Whites by 47 percentage points in Florida and by 37 percentage points in Texas. Just what do you think is going to happen as Florida and Texas become more and more non White? I mean if the basic way in which non Whites have historically voted doesn't change from what it's been for over 40 years now.

[JohnStOnge]

Question for the board donks, since I keep seeing this being brought up on liberal websites.

Which of the following statements are true?

1. Being female or non-white is a disadvantage when running against Trump.

2. The 2020 election is extremely important because of Trump/Climate Change/Income inequality/ whatever.

3. White men should step aside and give a woman or a "person of color" a chance.

You can accept 2 of these 3, but a lot of leftists seem to want all of them to be true.

I don't think female would be a disadvantage when running against Trump. I think the Clinton thing was a unique situation. Again: You had somebody who was under FBI investigation through most of the campaign and who had Comey drop that bomb on her at the end. I also do think the Russians were a factor. Not so much in impacting people to vote for Trump but rather in suppressing the vote that would normally vote for the Democrat.

Trump is already going to get creamed among females. A decent female candidate would, I think, get him creamed among females by an even larger margin. And I don't think it'd hurt the Democrats much among males.

[JohnStOnge]

Since the subject is up again I'm going to give you guys some information on variation. There have been 11 Presidential elections since exit polling started in 1976. The average margin among non whites has been Democrats by 61 percentage points. The range is 39 percentage points through 73 percentage points. So pretty much variation. Part of that variation is the fact that the non White population used to be overwhelmingly Black and Blacks REALLY vote Democrat. In 1976 Blacks were 82% of the non White vote. In 2016 they were 40%.

Blacks typically vote somewhere around 9 to 1 for Democrats. Other non Whites typically vote somewhere around 2 to 1 for Democrats. So as the percent of non Whites who are Blacks shrinks the percent of non Whites voting for Democrats tends to shrink. But, because the percent of non Whites overall is increasing at a sufficient rate, the advantage to Democrats provided by the non White vote is increasing.

Meanwhile Whites have always voted majority Republican during the subject period. But not by as large a margin. The average is 15 percentage points. The range is 2 through 32 percentage points.

Meanwhile, the percent non White voters in 1976 was 11. It was 30 in 2016.

Because of the variation it's hard to say when the cup will tip. But the cup will tip UNLESS Republicans find a way to change the basic dynamic of non White voters voting overwhelmingly for Democrats. Yes, for now, they can do better in a year when "overwhelming" means losing by 39 percentage points instead of by 60 percentage points. But in the long run that's not going to save them. At some point they're going to have to do a lot better than losing by 39 percentage points among non Whites to remain viable as a factor in the direction of the nation.

[AZGrizFan]

Since the subject is up again I'm going to give you guys some information on variation. There have been 11 Presidential elections since exit polling started in 1976. The average margin among non whites has been Democrats by 61 percentage points. The range is 39 percentage points through 73 percentage points. So pretty much variation. Part of that variation is the fact that the non White population used to be overwhelmingly Black and Blacks REALLY vote Democrat. In 1976 Blacks were 82% of the non White vote. In 2016 they were 40%.

Blacks typically vote somewhere around 9 to 1 for Democrats. Other non Whites typically vote somewhere around 2 to 1 for Democrats. So as the percent of non Whites who are Blacks shrinks the percent of non Whites voting for Democrats tends to shrink. But, because the percent of non Whites overall is increasing at a sufficient rate, the advantage to Democrats provided by the non White vote is increasing.

Meanwhile Whites have always voted majority Republican during the subject period. But not by as large a margin. The average is 15 percentage points. The range is 2 through 32 percentage points.

Meanwhile, the percent non White voters in 1976 was 11. It was 30 in 2016.

Because of the variation it's hard to say when the cup will tip. But the cup will tip UNLESS Republicans find a way to change the basic dynamic of non White voters voting overwhelmingly for Democrats. Yes, for now, they can do better in a year when "overwhelming" means losing by 39 percentage points instead of by 60 percentage points. But in the long run that's not going to save them. At some point they're going to have to do a lot better than losing by 39 percentage points among non Whites to remain viable as a factor in the direction of the nation.

You make some laaaaarge assumptions in your future predictions:

1) that the increasing non-white population will actually bother to vote (see the difference between # of blacks voting when Obama ran, versus normal presidential elections)
2) that the non-white population will never change the way in which they vote
3) that the non-white population will automatically favor the donk candidate

[Col Hogan]

Warren places third in 2020 Massachusetts poll

The Bay State is not supporting their own senator...

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Sunday placed third in a 2020 presidential poll of her home state of Massachusetts, trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe Biden.

In a poll of likely Democratic primary voters in the state, 14 percent picked Warren as their preferred Democratic nominee for president.

Sanders led the field with 26 percent of support, followed closely by Biden, who had the support of 23 percent of likely Massachusetts voters.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... usetts?amp

[Ivytalk]

Warren places third in 2020 Massachusetts poll

The Bay State is not supporting their own senator...

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Sunday placed third in a 2020 presidential poll of her home state of Massachusetts, trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe Biden.

In a poll of likely Democratic primary voters in the state, 14 percent picked Warren as their preferred Democratic nominee for president.

Sanders led the field with 26 percent of support, followed closely by Biden, who had the support of 23 percent of likely Massachusetts voters.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... usetts?amp

I wouldn’t give a cuppah chowdah for her chances.

Maybe she could be in a second-generation Mazola ad.

[css75]

Warren places third in 2020 Massachusetts poll

The Bay State is not supporting their own senator...

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Sunday placed third in a 2020 presidential poll of her home state of Massachusetts, trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe Biden.

In a poll of likely Democratic primary voters in the state, 14 percent picked Warren as their preferred Democratic nominee for president.

Sanders led the field with 26 percent of support, followed closely by Biden, who had the support of 23 percent of likely Massachusetts voters.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... usetts?amp

I think Trump eliminated her before she even started.


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[JohnStOnge]

You make some laaaaarge assumptions in your future predictions:

1) that the increasing non-white population will actually bother to vote (see the difference between # of blacks voting when Obama ran, versus normal presidential elections)
2) that the non-white population will never change the way in which they vote
3) that the non-white population will automatically favor the donk candidate

It's true that "non-Whites" (those who are not non Hispanic Whites) do not turn out as well as non Hispanic Whites do. But that doesn't change the fact that the percentage of non-Whites voting in Presidential elections has been consistently increasing over time. Starting with 1976 and continuing through 2016 it's been 11%, 12%, 14%, 15%, 13%, 17%, 19%, 23%, 26%, 28%, and 30%. There is no reason to doubt that the general trend will continue. Yes, we might see a downtick as we did when it was 15% in 1988 then 13% in 1992. But the general trend is going to be upward.

BTW, if "non-Whites" did vote at the same rate as non-Hispanic Whites they would've been about 39% of the vote in 2016. That's the effect you're talking about. But also notice that the percent non Whites voting in 2016 was the highest ever. It was higher than the two Obama elections even though non White turnout was suppressed.

To me it looks like your items 2 and 3 are basically the same thing. I don't think it's a huge assumption to assume that the non White population is going to continue to vote Democrat by an overwhelming margin. That's because absolutely nothing has happened to suggest that that's going to change. The most recent national gauge we have was the 2018 overall House vote and in that one "non-Whites" voted for Democrats by 76% to 22%.

I think Republicans recognized this problem after the 2012 Presidential election. They recognized that for the long term they MUST find a way to change that basic dynamic to remain viable. Then Trump came along and completely blew up their effort to change that basic dynamic.

[Ibanez]

Warren places third in 2020 Massachusetts poll

The Bay State is not supporting their own senator...



https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... usetts?amp

I wouldn’t give a cuppah chowdah for her chances.

Maybe she could be in a second-generation Mazola ad.

That would be a-MAIZE-ing