2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[CID1990]

You make some laaaaarge assumptions in your future predictions:

1) that the increasing non-white population will actually bother to vote (see the difference between # of blacks voting when Obama ran, versus normal presidential elections)
2) that the non-white population will never change the way in which they vote
3) that the non-white population will automatically favor the donk candidate

It's true that "non-Whites" (those who are not non Hispanic Whites) do not turn out as well as non Hispanic Whites do. But that doesn't change the fact that the percentage of non-Whites voting in Presidential elections has been consistently increasing over time. Starting with 1976 and continuing through 2016 it's been 11%, 12%, 14%, 15%, 13%, 17%, 19%, 23%, 26%, 28%, and 30%. There is no reason to doubt that the general trend will continue. Yes, we might see a downtick as we did when it was 15% in 1988 then 13% in 1992. But the general trend is going to be upward.

BTW, if "non-Whites" did vote at the same rate as non-Hispanic Whites they would've been about 39% of the vote in 2016. That's the effect you're talking about. But also notice that the percent non Whites voting in 2016 was the highest ever. It was higher than the two Obama elections even though non White turnout was suppressed.

To me it looks like your items 2 and 3 are basically the same thing. I don't think it's a huge assumption to assume that the non White population is going to continue to vote Democrat by an overwhelming margin. That's because absolutely nothing has happened to suggest that that's going to change. The most recent national gauge we have was the 2018 overall House vote and in that one "non-Whites" voted for Democrats by 76% to 22%.

I think Republicans recognized this problem after the 2012 Presidential election. They recognized that for the long term they MUST find a way to change that basic dynamic to remain viable. Then Trump came along and completely blew up their effort to change that basic dynamic.

Too vague

I think you need to flesh this out in a little more detail


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[Ibanez]

It's true that "non-Whites" (those who are not non Hispanic Whites) do not turn out as well as non Hispanic Whites do. But that doesn't change the fact that the percentage of non-Whites voting in Presidential elections has been consistently increasing over time. Starting with 1976 and continuing through 2016 it's been 11%, 12%, 14%, 15%, 13%, 17%, 19%, 23%, 26%, 28%, and 30%. There is no reason to doubt that the general trend will continue. Yes, we might see a downtick as we did when it was 15% in 1988 then 13% in 1992. But the general trend is going to be upward.

BTW, if "non-Whites" did vote at the same rate as non-Hispanic Whites they would've been about 39% of the vote in 2016. That's the effect you're talking about. But also notice that the percent non Whites voting in 2016 was the highest ever. It was higher than the two Obama elections even though non White turnout was suppressed.

To me it looks like your items 2 and 3 are basically the same thing. I don't think it's a huge assumption to assume that the non White population is going to continue to vote Democrat by an overwhelming margin. That's because absolutely nothing has happened to suggest that that's going to change. The most recent national gauge we have was the 2018 overall House vote and in that one "non-Whites" voted for Democrats by 76% to 22%.

I think Republicans recognized this problem after the 2012 Presidential election. They recognized that for the long term they MUST find a way to change that basic dynamic to remain viable. Then Trump came along and completely blew up their effort to change that basic dynamic.

Too vague

I think you need to flesh this out in a little more detail


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Not a fan of nuance?

[CID1990]

Buttigieg not always singing off the same sheet of music as the rest of the field:

http://reason.com/archives/2019/04/08/p ... eresting-d


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[GannonFan]

Buttigieg not always singing off the same sheet of music as the rest of the field:

http://reason.com/archives/2019/04/08/p ... eresting-d


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I like him so far. He has misteps, I thought his idea of 5 Dem's, 5 GOP'ers on the SCOTUS, and then having those 10 pick the other 5 for a 15 person SCOTUS was unnecessarily complex and would be far more political than it is today, but I doubt that will end up being a big, must-do item on his agenda. I liked the idea he had of making public service more about the service part - that's really divergent from where both parties have been for some time now.

[Col Hogan]

Buttigieg not always singing off the same sheet of music as the rest of the field:

http://reason.com/archives/2019/04/08/p ... eresting-d


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I like him so far. He has misteps, I thought his idea of 5 Dem's, 5 GOP'ers on the SCOTUS, and then having those 10 pick the other 5 for a 15 person SCOTUS was unnecessarily complex and would be far more political than it is today, but I doubt that will end up being a big, must-do item on his agenda. I liked the idea he had of making public service more about the service part - that's really divergent from where both parties have been for some time now.

He talks some good talk...but his experience as mayor of South Bend Indiana incidactes he’s someone I would not want running the country...

While Chicago is notorious for its murder rate, in 2015, Buttigieg’s South Bend actually topped Chicago’s 16.4 homicides per 100,000 people with a homicide rate of 16.79 per 100,000 people. Those numbers put Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s city on the list of the top 30 murder capitals in the country for the year.

In January, three shootings in one week killed two teens and left a woman paralyzed from the waist down. In one summer week, the casualties included a 12 and a 13-year-old. Last year, a man shot 6 people when he opened fire on 50 partygoers in a house and was sentenced to 100 years in jail.

By 2017, shootings had risen 20% on Mayor Buttigieg’s watch. Rapes increased 27% and aggravated assaults rose from 183 in 2013, the year before Buttigieg took office, to a stunning 563 assaults.

\

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/273361 ... greenfield

Buttigieg won re-election with 80% of the cast votes...but in a city of about 100,000, that 80% represented about 8300 votes...

[Ibanez]

I like him so far. He has misteps, I thought his idea of 5 Dem's, 5 GOP'ers on the SCOTUS, and then having those 10 pick the other 5 for a 15 person SCOTUS was unnecessarily complex and would be far more political than it is today, but I doubt that will end up being a big, must-do item on his agenda. I liked the idea he had of making public service more about the service part - that's really divergent from where both parties have been for some time now.

He talks some good talk...but his experience as mayor of South Bend Indiana incidactes he’s someone I would not want running the country...

While Chicago is notorious for its murder rate, in 2015, Buttigieg’s South Bend actually topped Chicago’s 16.4 homicides per 100,000 people with a homicide rate of 16.79 per 100,000 people. Those numbers put Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s city on the list of the top 30 murder capitals in the country for the year.

In January, three shootings in one week killed two teens and left a woman paralyzed from the waist down. In one summer week, the casualties included a 12 and a 13-year-old. Last year, a man shot 6 people when he opened fire on 50 partygoers in a house and was sentenced to 100 years in jail.

By 2017, shootings had risen 20% on Mayor Buttigieg’s watch. Rapes increased 27% and aggravated assaults rose from 183 in 2013, the year before Buttigieg took office, to a stunning 563 assaults.

\

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/273361 ... greenfield

Buttigieg won re-election with 80% of the cast votes...but in a city of about 100,000, that 80% represented about 8300 votes...

You can't hold a mayor solely responsible for all crime. Are you trying to imply he's responsible for all the rape and murder?

He's an educated vet who doesn't appear to be super progressive like Booker or Harris. He's someone to watch


If we're going off past experience, Trumps track record of bad business deals, bankruptcy, not paying people and adultery makes he someone I don't want running the country.

[Col Hogan]

He talks some good talk...but his experience as mayor of South Bend Indiana incidactes he’s someone I would not want running the country...

\

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/273361 ... greenfield

Buttigieg won re-election with 80% of the cast votes...but in a city of about 100,000, that 80% represented about 8300 votes...

You can't hold a mayor solely responsible for all crime. Are you trying to imply he's responsible for all the rape and murder?

He's an educated vet who doesn't appear to be super progressive like Booker or Harris. He's someone to watch


If we're going off past experience, Trumps track record of bad business deals, bankruptcy, not paying people and adultery makes he someone I don't want running the country.

He is responsible for taking leadership actions to reduce crime within his city...and if you read the article, you can see that crime has continued to grow during his leadership tenure...

Isn’t the mayor of a city responsible for making positive actions???and responsible for the lack of positive actions???

[GannonFan]

You can't hold a mayor solely responsible for all crime. Are you trying to imply he's responsible for all the rape and murder?

He's an educated vet who doesn't appear to be super progressive like Booker or Harris. He's someone to watch


If we're going off past experience, Trumps track record of bad business deals, bankruptcy, not paying people and adultery makes he someone I don't want running the country.

He is responsible for taking leadership actions to reduce crime within his city...and if you read the article, you can see that crime has continued to grow during his leadership tenure...

Isn’t the mayor of a city responsible for making positive actions???and responsible for the lack of positive actions???

How much is he truly responsible for as mayor? Does the district attorney answer to him? How much legislative authority does he hold in South Bend to be able to make laws to deal with the problems they may have there? Obviously South Bend is a college town, and there's been a push nationwide to more promptly report sexual assaults (ones that likely went unreported before) so how do the national trends for this dovetail with the increases seen in South Bend?

[Ibanez]

You can't hold a mayor solely responsible for all crime. Are you trying to imply he's responsible for all the rape and murder?

He's an educated vet who doesn't appear to be super progressive like Booker or Harris. He's someone to watch


If we're going off past experience, Trumps track record of bad business deals, bankruptcy, not paying people and adultery makes he someone I don't want running the country.

He is responsible for taking leadership actions to reduce crime within his city...and if you read the article, you can see that crime has continued to grow during his leadership tenure...

Isn’t the mayor of a city responsible for making positive actions???and responsible for the lack of positive actions???

A leader is. But that article says nothing about anything he may or may not done. So it only tells a portion of the story.



And honestly, conservatives/republicans elected Trump. Y’all don’t know what a good leader is.


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[CID1990]

You can't hold a mayor solely responsible for all crime. Are you trying to imply he's responsible for all the rape and murder?

He's an educated vet who doesn't appear to be super progressive like Booker or Harris. He's someone to watch


If we're going off past experience, Trumps track record of bad business deals, bankruptcy, not paying people and adultery makes he someone I don't want running the country.

He is responsible for taking leadership actions to reduce crime within his city...and if you read the article, you can see that crime has continued to grow during his leadership tenure...

Isn’t the mayor of a city responsible for making positive actions???and responsible for the lack of positive actions???

The tools mayors once had to affect local crime rates have largely gone away (tell the police chief to kick some ass).

All they really have now is to look the other way when the police chief cooks the books. (Joe Riley)

TBH, I think it speaks to the guy’s integrity that he at least tried.. in spite of the futility.. and didn’t resort to lying about crime stats.


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[Gil Dobie]

All the Dem emails I get talk about Trump this or that. Nothing about what they will do to on the issues.

[Ivytalk]

All the Dem emails I get talk about Trump this or that. Nothing about what they will do to on the issues.

You’re up early, Gil.

[Gil Dobie]

All the Dem emails I get talk about Trump this or that. Nothing about what they will do to on the issues.

You’re up early, Gil.

Up at 5am Wednesday and Thursday.

[JohnStOnge]

All the Dem emails I get talk about Trump this or that. Nothing about what they will do to on the issues.

Trump IS an issue. We need to get rid of him. Once we do that we can get to the other issues.

[SDHornet]

All the Dem emails I get talk about Trump this or that. Nothing about what they will do to on the issues.

Trump IS an issue. We need to get rid of him. Once we do that we can get to the other issues.

Dems just need to manufacture another smear story on Trump, because I'm sure it'll work one day...

[houndawg]

I like him so far. He has misteps, I thought his idea of 5 Dem's, 5 GOP'ers on the SCOTUS, and then having those 10 pick the other 5 for a 15 person SCOTUS was unnecessarily complex and would be far more political than it is today, but I doubt that will end up being a big, must-do item on his agenda. I liked the idea he had of making public service more about the service part - that's really divergent from where both parties have been for some time now.

He talks some good talk...but his experience as mayor of South Bend Indiana incidactes he’s someone I would not want running the country...

While Chicago is notorious for its murder rate, in 2015, Buttigieg’s South Bend actually topped Chicago’s 16.4 homicides per 100,000 people with a homicide rate of 16.79 per 100,000 people. Those numbers put Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s city on the list of the top 30 murder capitals in the country for the year.

In January, three shootings in one week killed two teens and left a woman paralyzed from the waist down. In one summer week, the casualties included a 12 and a 13-year-old. Last year, a man shot 6 people when he opened fire on 50 partygoers in a house and was sentenced to 100 years in jail.

By 2017, shootings had risen 20% on Mayor Buttigieg’s watch. Rapes increased 27% and aggravated assaults rose from 183 in 2013, the year before Buttigieg took office, to a stunning 563 assaults.

\

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/273361 ... greenfield

Buttigieg won re-election with 80% of the cast votes...but in a city of about 100,000, that 80% represented about 8300 votes...

So there wasn't much organized opposition?

[houndawg]

All the Dem emails I get talk about Trump this or that. Nothing about what they will do to on the issues.

Trump IS an issue. We need to get rid of him. Once we do that we can get to the other issues.

Gotta hit rock bottom first. We're on the way but we aren't there yet.

[mainejeff]

When Trump (Stephen Miller) orders his SS (ICE) to fire on illegals (or actual Americans? )....it'll be game over. It WILL happen.

[GannonFan]

When Trump (Stephen Miller) orders his SS (ICE) to fire on illegals (or actual Americans? )....it'll be game over. It WILL happen.

This is textbook TDS is full display. The biggest negative of Trump and all of his buffoonery is that not only has it shed a light on the dark tiny corner where the handful of white nationalist and KKK types still left now have a media willing to give them all the press they can get, but it's also caused a larger and a should-know-better cadre on the left to display their full ignorance of history as they try to get out every denouncement they can get past the foam in their mouths. Trump was always the consequence of a dangerously detached and elitist political movement, he was never the cause of it. If we're not careful we'll be getting folks in MAGA hats putting on yellow road hazard vests.

[Winterborn]

All the Dem emails I get talk about Trump this or that. Nothing about what they will do to on the issues.

Trump IS an issue. We need to get rid of him. Once we do that we can get to the other issues.

Get rid of the reason he was elected and him (and his type) will disappear.

[CID1990]

All the Dem emails I get talk about Trump this or that. Nothing about what they will do to on the issues.

Trump IS an issue. We need to get rid of him. Once we do that we can get to the other issues.

The Democrats sure aren’t acting like it

All they have to do is not be fvcking crazy

They aren’t doing very well at that


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[css75]

Trump IS an issue. We need to get rid of him. Once we do that we can get to the other issues.

The Democrats sure aren’t acting like it

All they have to do is not be fvcking crazy

They aren’t doing very well at that


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I disagree, they are doing a fantastic job of acting crazy, even though most is not acting.


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[JohnStOnge]

He talks some good talk...but his experience as mayor of South Bend Indiana incidactes he’s someone I would not want running the country...

As opposed to Donald Trump? Seriously, if you are going to worry about relevant experience associated with someone running for President...

[Ivytalk]

He talks some good talk...but his experience as mayor of South Bend Indiana incidactes he’s someone I would not want running the country...

As opposed to Donald Trump? Seriously, if you are going to worry about relevant experience associated with someone running for President...

Book it: the earth has stood still. JSO backs a gay candidate.

[CID1990]

Democrats: please don’t make this election a choice between Nationalism and Socialism

https://thebulwark.com/democrats-please ... -disaster/


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