The Ukraine Crisis

[BDKJMU]

"..... In some cases, Ukrainian military units surrounded in their bases refused to surrender their weapons...

Russian soldiers are digging trenches at the narrow land crossing between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, according to a report from the BBC.

Hundreds of Russian troops appeared Sunday morning at the Ukrainian army base at Perevalne in Crimea, as Ukrainians soldiers stood at the gates in a tense standoff.

In Kiev, the head of State Security Council, Andriy Parubiy, said all Ukrainian reservists should report immediately to their mobilization stations....."

Ukranian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk: “we are on the brink of disaster.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukr ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But according to KYJelly, this isn't agression on the part of Russia..

[Grizalltheway]

The Poles have officially mobilized.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrStBRDl ... r_embedded[/youtube]

[dbackjon]

I just wish we had Reagan still in office. He would have backed up his rhetoric...unlike Obama...

Lol. How so?

[kalm]

I just wish we had Reagan still in office. He would have backed up his rhetoric...unlike Obama...

Lol. How so?

Selling arms to both sides, cutting high rate and corporate taxes, raising taxes on workers, and through harsh words...

[∞∞∞]

Lol. How so?

Selling arms to both sides, cutting high rate and corporate taxes, raising taxes on workers, and through harsh words...

[∞∞∞]

Militarily involving ourselves is a no-win situation. No one wants to go to war with Russia.

There is another historic solution and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up as "breaking news."

[Ibanez]

Militarily involving ourselves is a no-win situation. No one wants to go to war with Russia.

There is another historic solution and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up as "breaking news."

[dbackjon]

Lol. How so?

Selling arms to both sides, cutting high rate and corporate taxes, raising taxes on workers, and through harsh words...

Don't forget stationing hundreds of marines in barracks in a hostile area with little security, then abandoning said area

[kalm]

Selling arms to both sides, cutting high rate and corporate taxes, raising taxes on workers, and through harsh words...

Don't forget stationing hundreds of marines in barracks in a hostile area with little security, then abandoning said area

That's because he didn't negotiate with terrorists...

[dbackjon]

Don't forget stationing hundreds of marines in barracks in a hostile area with little security, then abandoning said area

That's because he didn't negotiate with terrorists...

He just armed them

[Seahawks08]

"..Putin “is running circles around” the U.S. in his maneuvering on the global stage..

...“I think Putin is playing chess, and I think we’re playing marbles. It’s not even close,”...
http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... ogers-says

The comments on that website relate to your point of view well. Are you a member?

[CID1990]

Putin and Lavrov are acting in (at least as they see it) Russia's interests. Really nothing to see here, unless you want to observe how a country can actually act pragmatically in its own best interests

A foreign concept to us, I know

What is interesting is the progression here-

Once it was decided to
Lash Ukraine to Russia as a client state, Putin stacked the Ukraine parliament and the president was his man. That was plan A

Plan B is what we are seeing now. It's ruthless and beautifully pragmatic. Plan A fails dismally, but hey, we gave it our best shot- and now we get to show the world that once we set on a course we will see it through to the end

they're practicing diplomacy by other means now heh

[Grizalltheway]

Putin and Lavrov are acting in (at least as they see it) Russia's interests. Really nothing to see here, unless you want to observe how a country can actually act pragmatically in its own best interests

A foreign concept to us, I know

What is interesting is the progression here-

Once it was decided to
Lash Ukraine to Russia as a client state, Putin stacked the Ukraine parliament and the president was his man. That was plan A

Plan B is what we are seeing now. It's ruthless and beautifully pragmatic. Plan A fails dismally, but hey, we gave it our best shot- and now we get to show the world that once we set on a course we will see it through to the end

they're practicing diplomacy by other means now heh

You're right, we really only act in our multinational oil companies' best interests anymore.

[CitadelGrad]

That's because he didn't negotiate with terrorists...

He just armed them

At the time they weren't terrorists. They were our proxy in the Cold War.

Now, Obama, on the other hand is arming Al-Qaeda in Syria. He supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and armed radical Islamists in Libya, who later thanked him by killing our ambassador.

[∞∞∞]

Just some points that I thought were interesting. Putin/Russian people have a lot to lose by invading Crimea, both militarily and economically. It's still a lot, but I tried summarizing the key stuff:

Ukraine is no pushover...

...Western personnel I have spoken to consider the Ukrainian forces to be more prepared than their Russian counterparts. One way to understand the difference in quality is to look at the the ratio of professional soldiers to conscripts. Ukraine’s armed forces are 60% professional; Russia’s only 30%.

Further, when the Soviet Union broke up, much of its arms industry was located in Ukraine, which even today remains the world’s 9th largest arms supplier. And Ukraine would most likely receive support, both overt and covert, from NATO allies on its borders—Poland especially—and electronic intelligence from the United States.

Of course, Russia’s armed forces are far larger, but there would be no easy victory. In the meantime, harsh sanctions would surely go into effect. Many of Russia’s elite would see their assets frozen and travel visas revoked. Its banks would be cut off from the international financial system. Trade with the West would grind to a halt. Within weeks, shoppers in Moscow would start to see empty shelves.

And that’s what makes recent events so scary. Putin knows all this and he still seems determined to press his luck. He isn't, as some would believe, playing the role of a chess master, but that of a desperate man with nothing left to lose...

...He faces growing opposition at home, a continuing crisis in the Northern Caucasus and poor economic prospects. A significant drop in the price of oil could send his economy into free fall...

...Putin cannot win. I would suspect that even he knows that. What we need to do now is diminish his determination to impose a price on the rest of the world.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/ ... right-now/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It is this last move that may be the most significant. Russia is no longer a great power. While its military retains some important capabilities, its army is largely made up of ill-equipped and poorly disciplined conscripts, whose families lack the means for them to avoid service. In the 2008 war, Georgia shot down 9 of its planes in less than a week...

...If Putin does annex Crimea, it will surely bring international condemnation and, quite probably, some form of implicit or explicit trade sanctions. With its weakened economy, that is not something that Russia can easily afford and a downturn can be expected. If the price of oil drops 15%-20%, the country could suffer a crisis on the level of what it endured in the 1990′s.

Putin will also see a military buildup in his backyard. NATO membership for Georgia, with the advanced weapon systems and training it will bring, will surely degrade Russian national security. The port of Batumi (see map above), could also serve as an important military asset.

Perhaps most importantly, annexation of Crimea will mean that Putin has lost Ukraine for good. It will be a transgression that will not be forgotten or forgiven and will speed up European aid and integration.

The Crimean Tatars, with their deep hatred of Russia, will resist Russian sovereignty, possibly resulting in a situation similar to the one in war-torn Chechnya. The Russian President is, in effect, sowing the seeds of conflict for decades to come.

And that is what is so worrying about Putin’s latest moves. They show that he is clearly a desperate man, willing to make a clean break with Ukraine and Europe, risk an acceleration of Georgia’s membership in NATO—an event that he wants to avoid almost as much as losing Ukraine—cripple his own economy and suppress yet another indigenous population. All for little tangible gain.

It appears that Putin feels that he has nothing left to lose.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/ ... to-crimea/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Baldy]

I just wish we had Reagan still in office. He would have backed up his rhetoric...unlike Obama...

Lol. How so?

Certainly not like this...

[CID1990]

Putin and the Russians are going to have a field day in Ukraine.

The Crimea asked them to come. It's not aggression on the part of Russia (despite what Obama and others have said). If they want to be a part of Russia... so be it.

The Crimea asked them to come because it was engineered that way.

I don't think we should get involved over there given the current circumstances, but by your calculus it would be A-OK if Russia just extended their buffer with the EU by reoccupying all of their former Soviet republics. After all, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all have sizeable Russian minorities. It would be just as easy to grant those minorities citizenship and then have them "ask" Russia to come "protect them". What is going on in the Crimea is happening in precisely the same way as it happened in Georgia- Russia is punishing a neighbor for leaning towards the west, EU, NATO. They've granted citizenship to ethnic Russians in the Crimea, just as they did in Georgia for the same purposes - to lay a security claim to what they see as a strategic area.

This has nothing to do with Crimea "asking" the Russians to come any more than Georgia did. In the Crimea it has everything to do with the port of Sevastopol and Russia's Black Sea fleet.

Go read up on Sergei Lavrov- there's a long standing, deeply held philosophy among high ranking Russian officials who were also around during the Cold War that drives everything Russia has done since the early 1990s.

Believing Crimea's "request" was legitimate is willful ignorance.

[∞∞∞]

Russia lost 64 soldiers, 4 fighter jets, 5 airplanes, and 20+ tanks in five days against Georgia. The Georgian military is ranked #64 in the world. The Ukraine's is ranked #21.

Even setting aside the fact that Russia has huge economic problems at home (even worse than here), this would be a costly war for Russia and I think Putin knows it.

[HI54UNI]

Interesting for discussion....

What to do about Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

Here are some suggestions of what the United States can do.

(1) Announce it will not only not attend the G-8 conference scheduled for Sochi but will move to expel Russia from the G-8. Russia doesn't belong in the G-8 anyway; the other members, the original G-7, have much larger economies with electoral democracies, free markets and the rule of law. Russia is deficient on each count.

(2) Move U.S. and other NATO military forces into Poland and other Eastern European NATO countries, particularly the Baltic republics. These nations have been extremely cooperative with the United States and have received the back of our hand in return.

(3) Move to set up the anti-ballistic missile facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic which Obama scuttled in 2009--on the anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland, when it was an ally of Nazi Germany, in 1939.

(4) Cut off Russian banks' access to U.S., European Union and Japanese banking facilities. Such moves squeezed Iran">Iran hard enough to get it to the bargaining table.

(5) Extend the list of Russians barred from the United States under the Magnitsky Act.

(6) Improve relations with Kazakstan, which has plenty of oil and long boundaries with both Russia and China. Don't worry overmuch about losing transit rights in other Central Asia republics and Russia, which are currently the sites for removal of military equipment from Afghanistan (because Pakistan is not making itself available). We can just leave it there for the time being.

(7) Investigate possible environmental damage caused by the Russian port of Kaliningrad, in that geographically disconnected part of Russia that was once the northern part of East Prussia. This sounds like a good task for the European Union.



http://washingtonexaminer.com/what-to-d ... le/2544931

[93henfan]

Interesting for discussion....

What to do about Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

Here are some suggestions of what the United States can do.

(1) Announce it will not only not attend the G-8 conference scheduled for Sochi but will move to expel Russia from the G-8. Russia doesn't belong in the G-8 anyway; the other members, the original G-7, have much larger economies with electoral democracies, free markets and the rule of law. Russia is deficient on each count.

(2) Move U.S. and other NATO military forces into Poland and other Eastern European NATO countries, particularly the Baltic republics. These nations have been extremely cooperative with the United States and have received the back of our hand in return.

(3) Move to set up the anti-ballistic missile facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic which Obama scuttled in 2009--on the anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland, when it was an ally of Nazi Germany, in 1939.

(4) Cut off Russian banks' access to U.S., European Union and Japanese banking facilities. Such moves squeezed Iran">Iran hard enough to get it to the bargaining table.

(5) Extend the list of Russians barred from the United States under the Magnitsky Act.

(6) Improve relations with Kazakstan, which has plenty of oil and long boundaries with both Russia and China. Don't worry overmuch about losing transit rights in other Central Asia republics and Russia, which are currently the sites for removal of military equipment from Afghanistan (because Pakistan is not making itself available). We can just leave it there for the time being.

(7) Investigate possible environmental damage caused by the Russian port of Kaliningrad, in that geographically disconnected part of Russia that was once the northern part of East Prussia. This sounds like a good task for the European Union.



http://washingtonexaminer.com/what-to-d ... le/2544931

Obama's domestic agenda is much more important. Why give away billions in welfare to people 7,000 miles away when you can do it right here?

[CID1990]

Interesting for discussion....
(2) Move U.S. and other NATO military forces into Poland and other Eastern European NATO countries, particularly the Baltic republics. These nations have been extremely cooperative with the United States and have received the back of our hand in return.

(3) Move to set up the anti-ballistic missile facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic which Obama scuttled in 2009--on the anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland, when it was an ally of Nazi Germany, in 1939.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/what-to-d ... le/2544931

I want some of what they are smoking at WaEx if they think #2 and #3 would EVER have any chance of happening- especially under this administration.

They're correct about the Baltic states, but their friendship and cooperation with the US would not save them if Russia decides possessing them again is in Russia's strategic interests.

Remember-

No allies, only interests

[Ivytalk]

There will always be a "U" in the Ukraine.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Interesting for discussion....

What to do about Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

Here are some suggestions of what the United States can do.

(1) Announce it will not only not attend the G-8 conference scheduled for Sochi but will move to expel Russia from the G-8. Russia doesn't belong in the G-8 anyway; the other members, the original G-7, have much larger economies with electoral democracies, free markets and the rule of law. Russia is deficient on each count.

(2) Move U.S. and other NATO military forces into Poland and other Eastern European NATO countries, particularly the Baltic republics. These nations have been extremely cooperative with the United States and have received the back of our hand in return.

(3) Move to set up the anti-ballistic missile facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic which Obama scuttled in 2009--on the anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland, when it was an ally of Nazi Germany, in 1939.

(4) Cut off Russian banks' access to U.S., European Union and Japanese banking facilities. Such moves squeezed Iran">Iran hard enough to get it to the bargaining table.

(5) Extend the list of Russians barred from the United States under the Magnitsky Act.

(6) Improve relations with Kazakstan, which has plenty of oil and long boundaries with both Russia and China. Don't worry overmuch about losing transit rights in other Central Asia republics and Russia, which are currently the sites for removal of military equipment from Afghanistan (because Pakistan is not making itself available). We can just leave it there for the time being.

(7) Investigate possible environmental damage caused by the Russian port of Kaliningrad, in that geographically disconnected part of Russia that was once the northern part of East Prussia. This sounds like a good task for the European Union.



http://washingtonexaminer.com/what-to-d ... le/2544931

You forgot........STAY OUT OF IT AND LET THE REST OF THE WORLD DEAL WITH IT

[93henfan]

BREAKING!!!

Obama fires first shot. USA will not send a presidential delegation to the Paralympic Games in Sochi.

I say again, NO USA PRESIDENTIAL DELEGATION TO SOCHI PARALYMPICS!!!

[dbackjon]

He just armed them

At the time they weren't terrorists. They were our proxy in the Cold War.

Now, Obama, on the other hand is arming Al-Qaeda in Syria. He supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and armed radical Islamists in Libya, who later thanked him by killing our ambassador.

You are great at revisionism. You could apply for a job in Russia