Blue Wave 2018

[GannonFan]

I think the GOP losses are being pooh poohed too much. A lot of these donks are conservative but they could easily be arm-twisted by donk leaders in congress or a future donk president to do things their platforms would suggest they wouldn't do (see the Obamacare vote). And you know some deep-blue districts are going to have their versions of tea party candidates win races, that will just embolden them.

I honestly wonder if Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell's thinking here is "let's let the donks re-take the house in November, then we can dump Trump without pissing off quite as many people".

One more thing...I haven't followed this race at all but I betcha a zillion bucks Lamb never once uttered the words "war on wimmin™" or "systemic racism".

If Trump's voters really were just a bunch of xenophobic racists why would they vote for a Democrat?

HHHHHHHHmmmm......

Well, according to Hillary, white women just vote however their husbands, Dads, or sons tell them to so apparently that's where some of those votes came from - their men told them to vote for Lamb.

[89Hen]

It was actually a great paper for conservatives.

There's a joke there, I just know it!

Not sure if you're serious. The Washington Times was the right wing response to the Post. I never knew it was owned by Moon until much later.

[BDKJMU]

Connor Lamb wins in PA-18.

2008 presidential: McCain +11%
2008 House: Murphy +28%
2010 House: Murphy +35%
2012 presidential: Romney +17%
2012 House: Murphy +28%
2014 House: Murphy unopposed
2016 presidential: Trump +20%
2016 House: Murphy unopposed

Over 100 races more competitive.

Democrats now need 23.

When was the race called?

[Skjellyfetti]

Ah. Enter BDK.

[BDKJMU]

I can’t figure out how Lamb is a Democrat.

Theres a D by the name but he doesn’t check too many other boxes

I like the one quote from a miner in the Wash Times (I had no idea that was a newspaper) -

“He is not exactly creating a smear campaign like his opponent is, and if somebody is doing that, there seems to be they might have something to hide,” the 66-year-old miner said, adding that he thinks Mr. Trump and Mr. Lamb are cut from a similar cloth.

“We need someone like Conor, and we need somebody like Trump to fight the establishment, which has gone too far,” he said.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... vania-cam/

Yeah. This is a heavily conk district, BUT:
-The Reuters article that was just posted 20 min ago said of the results which were 49.8% to 49.6%, few hundred votes:
“The earliest the election result could be certified is March 26, according to a state official, but the final tally could be unknown for weeks.

County officials are expected to begin counting provisional paper ballots late this week, and military ballots next week, officials said.

Republicans have until the results are officially certified to challenge the outcome or pursue a recount...”

Even if this Lamb guy is declared the winner:
-Lamb practically ran as a conk who took pains to distance himself from the donk party.
-The conk candidate was pretty bad.
-The district no longer exists come the Nov elections.

[Ivytalk]

Drumpf has no coattails. None.

[dbackjon]

LMAO at the spin. This is the same guy that the White House and GOP were calling a Nancy Pelosi Liberal on Monday.

He is Pro-Choice
He is Pro-Obamacare
He is for Social Security and Medicare
He is against the GOP Tax Scam
He is for Job Training - something the Dems push, Trump has opposed
Student Loan reform

Yeah, that looks like he distanced himself from the Democrats.

And the Conk Candidate - typical GOP - if you are saying he was pretty bad, then you just described 90% of the Republcan Party.

As for the district not existing - yes and no. The heavily GOP Gerrymandered map was thrown out and re-drawn (which the GOP is still fighting). Lamb will be in A district. And an incumbent.

[JohnStOnge]

I heard Rush Limbaugh trying to put lipstick on this pig today. Now, let me say that we have to wait and see what happens with legal challenges and such. But either way...

Limbaugh's take was that both candidates support the Trump agenda. Also said something about the polls saying Lamb had a 5 point lead and so there was worry among the liberals about the polls not seeing Trump voters.

But, look, Trump made a special trip to that district to use his supposed cred to get the Republican elected. There is no way to see this as some kind of Trump validation.

And then there's the polls thing. First of all, the RCP average at the end was Lamb by 2. It's true that the last poll, by Monmouth, the point estimate was Lamb by 6. But it was a small sample size with a 5.1 percentage point margin of error for the amount that a candidate would get. The margin of error for the margin of victory is about twice that. So the poll was basically saying that the result could be anywhere from the Democrat winning by 16 percentage points to the Republican winning by 4 percentage points. The actual outcome is well within that margin of error.

Then, of course, there's the fact that the polls were taken before Trump went down there and made his pitch. It's possible that the numbers changed some after he did that.

I don't know if there is going to be a blue wave. Lots of time between now and the 2018 election overall. All we who care about the country can do is hope that there is one because right now the Republican Party is off the rails. The country desperately needs to have at least one house of Congress go Democrat. If nothing else we need to have a situation where an effort will actually be made to look into potential Trump corruption.

[CID1990]

LMAO at the spin. This is the same guy that the White House and GOP were calling a Nancy Pelosi Liberal on Monday.

He is Pro-Choice
He is Pro-Obamacare
He is for Social Security and Medicare
He is against the GOP Tax Scam
He is for Job Training - something the Dems push, Trump has opposed
Student Loan reform

Yeah, that looks like he distanced himself from the Democrats.

And the Conk Candidate - typical GOP - if you are saying he was pretty bad, then you just described 90% of the Republcan Party.

As for the district not existing - yes and no. The heavily GOP Gerrymandered map was thrown out and re-drawn (which the GOP is still fighting). Lamb will be in A district. And an incumbent.

He's pro abortion?

I had heard the opposite. Maybe my info is wrong

My impression is that he's slightly right of Joe Manchin

doesn't that make him Hitler?


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[JohnStOnge]

I know some of you think CNN if "fake news" but I'll go ahead and use their description at https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics ... index.html of Lamb's position on abortion because it's succinct and consistent with what I've heard/seen from multiple sources:

Abortion: Lamb personally opposes abortion but backs the Supreme Court's decision legalizing it. "Once you make something a right, it's a right. And it's like that for a reason," he told HuffPost. Lamb told the Weekly Standard he doesn't support a ban on abortion at 20 weeks.

So it looks to me like he's doing that thing of saying "I'm personally opposed to it but I'm not going to impose my view on others."

[CID1990]

I know some of you think CNN if "fake news" but I'll go ahead and use their description at https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics ... index.html of Lamb's position on abortion because it's succinct and consistent with what I've heard/seen from multiple sources:

Abortion: Lamb personally opposes abortion but backs the Supreme Court's decision legalizing it. "Once you make something a right, it's a right. And it's like that for a reason," he told HuffPost. Lamb told the Weekly Standard he doesn't support a ban on abortion at 20 weeks.

So it looks to me like he's doing that thing of saying "I'm personally opposed to it but I'm not going to impose my view on others."

Precisely my view on it

I've been called right wing to my face for it.


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[Chizzang]

I know some of you think CNN if "fake news" but I'll go ahead and use their description at https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics ... index.html of Lamb's position on abortion because it's succinct and consistent with what I've heard/seen from multiple sources:



So it looks to me like he's doing that thing of saying "I'm personally opposed to it but I'm not going to impose my view on others."

Precisely my view on it

I've been called right wing to my face for it.

Oh the humanity...



Conservatives and abortion is always good for a laugh
If men got pregnant you could get an abortion at the airport between flights
and birth control would be in beer as an additive

[CID1990]

Precisely my view on it

I've been called right wing to my face for it.

Oh the humanity...



Conservatives and abortion is always good for a laugh
If men got pregnant you could get an abortion at the airport between flights
and birth control would be in beer as an additive

You have mistaken me for someone who gives a sh1t, Margaret

Being classified as a nazi by the soft headed left isn't high on the list that keeps me up at night

The point is that even though I wouldnt outlaw abortion I'm not ideologically pure

or I have the temerity to have an opinion at all


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[Ivytalk]

I know some of you think CNN if "fake news" but I'll go ahead and use their description at https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics ... index.html of Lamb's position on abortion because it's succinct and consistent with what I've heard/seen from multiple sources:

Abortion: Lamb personally opposes abortion but backs the Supreme Court's decision legalizing it. "Once you make something a right, it's a right. And it's like that for a reason," he told HuffPost. Lamb told the Weekly Standard he doesn't support a ban on abortion at 20 weeks.

So it looks to me like he's doing that thing of saying "I'm personally opposed to it but I'm not going to impose my view on others."

So now we’re seeing the beginning of the JSO Connor Lamb Apology Tour? This from a guy who has said that it’s critical to flip at least one house of Congress to the Donks, so I guess it makes sense in a “foolish consistency” sort of way.

Some “conservative” you are.

[Baldy]

Precisely my view on it

I've been called right wing to my face for it.

Oh the humanity...



Conservatives and abortion is always good for a laugh
If men got pregnant you could get an abortion at the airport between flights
and birth control would be in beer as an additive

It's pretty much that way now.

[93henfan]

I know some of you think CNN if "fake news" but I'll go ahead and use their description at https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics ... index.html of Lamb's position on abortion because it's succinct and consistent with what I've heard/seen from multiple sources:



So it looks to me like he's doing that thing of saying "I'm personally opposed to it but I'm not going to impose my view on others."

Precisely my view on it

I've been called right wing to my face for it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Precisely my view on it as well, and I’ve been called left wing here and on AGS over many years for it. Funny how that works.

I like the Lamb guy. I have a soft spot for fellow Devil Dogs. And he’s pro 2nd Amendment.

[Skjellyfetti]

Yeah, if you think Roe v. Wade should be overturned - you're pretty far to the right on abortion.

If you're not personally opposed to it except in extreme cases - you're pretty far to the left on abortion.

Both sides love trying to paint the other side as all on the extreme either way - overwhelming majority essentially agree on abortion.

[bluehenbillk]

overwhelming majority essentially agree on abortion.

I wouldn't agree with this statement at all.

I'd agree that a majority (more than 51%), nowhere near overwhelming, are OK with abortion. However, there is nowhere near a consensus on where you draw the line in terms of allowing it up to how many weeks a woman is pregnant.

[andy7171]

From what I've heard he's pro-life, pro- 1st-2nd amendment rights. In Maryland that makes you a right wing crazy. Far right of our Governor. I'd love to vote for his ass down here in the Land of Pleasant Living.

[Skjellyfetti]

Eh.

I'm talking about a similar position to Cid, 93, and Conor Lamb.

Someone that thinks abortion should be legal before 20 weeks and someone that thinks abortion should be legal before 23 weeks essentially agree, imo.

Debating what week an abortion should be illegal isn't the national debate.

Republicans will only nominate SCOTUS judges who will overturn Roe v Wade. Overturning Roe v Wade is part of the Republican Platform.

[houndawg]

I heard Rush Limbaugh trying to put lipstick on this pig today. Now, let me say that we have to wait and see what happens with legal challenges and such. But either way...

Limbaugh's take was that both candidates support the Trump agenda. Also said something about the polls saying Lamb had a 5 point lead and so there was worry among the liberals about the polls not seeing Trump voters.

But, look, Trump made a special trip to that district to use his supposed cred to get the Republican elected. There is no way to see this as some kind of Trump validation.

And then there's the polls thing. First of all, the RCP average at the end was Lamb by 2. It's true that the last poll, by Monmouth, the point estimate was Lamb by 6. But it was a small sample size with a 5.1 percentage point margin of error for the amount that a candidate would get. The margin of error for the margin of victory is about twice that. So the poll was basically saying that the result could be anywhere from the Democrat winning by 16 percentage points to the Republican winning by 4 percentage points. The actual outcome is well within that margin of error.

Then, of course, there's the fact that the polls were taken before Trump went down there and made his pitch. It's possible that the numbers changed some after he did that.

I don't know if there is going to be a blue wave. Lots of time between now and the 2018 election overall. All we who care about the country can do is hope that there is one because right now the Republican Party is off the rails. The country desperately needs to have at least one house of Congress go Democrat. If nothing else we need to have a situation where an effort will actually be made to look into potential Trump corruption.

We can hope, but you have to remember that we're talking about the Party that just blew the most unloseable national election in our history. it is not beyond their ability to fuck this one up too.

[Ibanez]

One more thing...I haven't followed this race at all but I betcha a zillion bucks Lamb never once uttered the words "war on wimmin™" or "systemic racism".

If Trump's voters really were just a bunch of xenophobic racists why would they vote for a Democrat?

HHHHHHHHmmmm......

Well, according to Hillary, white women just vote however their husbands, Dads, or sons tell them to so apparently that's where some of those votes came from - their men told them to vote for Lamb.

Doesn't anyone listen to that and thing, " Heck, Hil. This is 2018 and that's a very sexist, offensive comment. Are you saying that all men are that overbearing. Or all women are that weak?"

[Ibanez]

LMAO at the spin. This is the same guy that the White House and GOP were calling a Nancy Pelosi Liberal on Monday.

He is Pro-Choice
He is Pro-Obamacare
He is for Social Security and Medicare
He is against the GOP Tax Scam
He is for Job Training - something the Dems push, Trump has opposed
Student Loan reform

Yeah, that looks like he distanced himself from the Democrats.

And the Conk Candidate - typical GOP - if you are saying he was pretty bad, then you just described 90% of the Republcan Party.

As for the district not existing - yes and no. The heavily GOP Gerrymandered map was thrown out and re-drawn (which the GOP is still fighting). Lamb will be in A district. And an incumbent.

He is Pro-life. Those words came out of his mouth yesterday on CNN - several times.

But you touched on Student Loan reform and that I couldn't agree with more. Davos and Trump are going to screw up the student loan economy..moreso than they already are.

[Ibanez]

Precisely my view on it

I've been called right wing to my face for it.


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Precisely my view on it as well, and I’ve been called left wing here and on AGS over many years for it. Funny how that works.

I like the Lamb guy. I have a soft spot for fellow Devil Dogs. And he’s pro 2nd Amendment.

Ditto. You can be personally against something - however if your constituency (and the public in general) want something, you as a congressman are supposed to do their will. ESPECIALLY if you're a representative.

[CID1990]

Republicans will only nominate SCOTUS judges who will overturn Roe v Wade. Overturning Roe v Wade is part of the Republican Platform.

Well now that's not necessarily true - Roe v Wade has been precedent since several Republican nominees to the court - and it is by no means a litmus test for many Republicans.. and the Senate is chock full of members who won't hold up an otherwise conservative nominee on Roe alone.

I can think of many more Republicans who would confirm a justice who is squishy on Roe than ones who wouldn't



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