I’d like a defense of capitalism, please.
Let all the companies starting with oil die if you want to walk the walk.
Who’s in?
I’d like a defense of capitalism, please.
I want AOC to stay relevant. The stupid things she says are funny and she's a nice Yang to Trump's Ying.
Capitalism is better than socialism. Case dismissed.
Mixed market economy with Keynesianism in times of crisis are more honest and better than both.
Oh fuck. Shit just got real. We're talking Keynesianism now.
Or we could let the free market just run its course.CitadelGrad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:27 pmOh fuck. Shit just got real. We're talking Keynesianism now.
Now yer talkin’!kalm wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:02 pmOr we could let the free market just run its course.CitadelGrad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:27 pm
Oh fuck. Shit just got real. We're talking Keynesianism now.
So no government bailouts, no Fed lending, let's just let it all burn! You've skipped libertarian and gone straight to anarchist?
I wonder if you realize Fed policy is largely what made the U.S. economy so vulnerable to an emergent crisis this like nation-wide lock-down.
I respect your stances on monetary policy and I’m skeptical too but right now would seem like the best argument for it.CitadelGrad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:54 pmI wonder if you realize Fed policy is largely what made the U.S. economy so vulnerable to an emergent crisis this like nation-wide lock-down.
COVID19 isn't the crisis. The fiscal and monetary response to it is.
What has the Fed done? Lowered rates? Bought up US debt and MBS's? Neither of those have prevented any "collapse".kalm wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:00 pmI respect your stances on monetary policy and I’m skeptical too but right now would seem like the best argument for it.CitadelGrad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:54 pm
I wonder if you realize Fed policy is largely what made the U.S. economy so vulnerable to an emergent crisis this like nation-wide lock-down.
COVID19 isn't the crisis. The fiscal and monetary response to it is.
Without it, what would prevent a total collapse of the supply chain for most goods (from oil to bacon) not to mention the banking system?
You obviously have no understanding of the concept of “libertarian.” And your posts would be more effective without the emojis.
Well. That hurt.
At a time when banks are socking away billions of dollars for projected loan losses from the unnecessary and self-induced economic calamity that’s about to hit, The Fed lowers rates 150 bp and costs us even MORE money on our entire variable rate portfolio....Additionally, any money we had in OUR bank (and yes, even banks have to bank somewhere) is now earning essentially zip squat nada. At my credit union we’ve got $700 million in cash (and growing) sitting earning zero and can’t get people to take it out.I can tell you this: there’s PLENTY of money in the system...and there was even before the fed lowered rates. People are hoarding cash. Plain and simple. And not in their mattresses....but in their bank accounts. Loan payments across the country have been deferred 90 days, and people are sitting on THAT money too, waiting to see what happens with the economy and businesses coming back online. Hell, some folks have MORE money (thanks to the brilliance of the CARES package and the $600 weekly unemployment bump) than they did when they were working.
Thank you Z. Much of that makes sense.AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:19 pmAt a time when banks are socking away billions of dollars for projected loan losses from the unnecessary and self-induced economic calamity that’s about to hit, The Fed lowers rates 150 bp and costs us even MORE money on our entire variable rate portfolio....Additionally, any money we had in OUR bank (and yes, even banks have to bank somewhere) is now earning essentially zip squat nada. At my credit union we’ve got $700 million in cash (and growing) sitting earning zero and can’t get people to take it out.I can tell you this: there’s PLENTY of money in the system...and there was even before the fed lowered rates. People are hoarding cash. Plain and simple. And not in their mattresses....but in their bank accounts. Loan payments across the country have been deferred 90 days, and people are sitting on THAT money too, waiting to see what happens with the economy and businesses coming back online. Hell, some folks have MORE money (thanks to the brilliance of the CARES package and the $600 weekly unemployment bump) than they did when they were working.
The treasury curve (upon which mortgage pricing is loosely based) is at an historic low (thanks to demand/flight to safety from the stock market crashing, and the Fed’s buying spree (QE8) among other things), so in the midst of this financial crisis we’re about to have a record month of mortgage fundings....problem is, 87% of the $200 million we’re funding this month are refi’s....nobody’s BUYING, they’re all just ratcheting down their mortgage payment...and hey, good for them...banks don’t hold those on their books anyways, for the most part.
Honestly, IMHO the Fed shouldn’t have done shit. This was NOT, in any way, shape or form, an “economic” issue that needed the Fed to adjust their policies. Crashing their rates, opening up their pocketbook and buying up US Debt, etc., all that did was honestly pour gasoline on an earnings fire for most financial institutions, with no apparent goal...they completely misread the situation and the “fix” (which was really to do nothing). And to top it all off, they essentially used all their dry powder so now if action IS needed, where do they go? Negative rates? $10T on their balance sheet?
Fed done fucked up....
Boom.AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:19 pmAt a time when banks are socking away billions of dollars for projected loan losses from the unnecessary and self-induced economic calamity that’s about to hit, The Fed lowers rates 150 bp and costs us even MORE money on our entire variable rate portfolio....Additionally, any money we had in OUR bank (and yes, even banks have to bank somewhere) is now earning essentially zip squat nada. At my credit union we’ve got $700 million in cash (and growing) sitting earning zero and can’t get people to take it out.I can tell you this: there’s PLENTY of money in the system...and there was even before the fed lowered rates. People are hoarding cash. Plain and simple. And not in their mattresses....but in their bank accounts. Loan payments across the country have been deferred 90 days, and people are sitting on THAT money too, waiting to see what happens with the economy and businesses coming back online. Hell, some folks have MORE money (thanks to the brilliance of the CARES package and the $600 weekly unemployment bump) than they did when they were working.
The treasury curve (upon which mortgage pricing is loosely based) is at an historic low (thanks to demand/flight to safety from the stock market crashing, and the Fed’s buying spree (QE8) among other things), so in the midst of this financial crisis we’re about to have a record month of mortgage fundings....problem is, 87% of the $200 million we’re funding this month are refi’s....nobody’s BUYING, they’re all just ratcheting down their mortgage payment...and hey, good for them...banks don’t hold those on their books anyways, for the most part.
Honestly, IMHO the Fed shouldn’t have done shit. This was NOT, in any way, shape or form, an “economic” issue that needed the Fed to adjust their policies. Crashing their rates, opening up their pocketbook and buying up US Debt, etc., all that did was honestly pour gasoline on an earnings fire for most financial institutions, with no apparent goal...they completely misread the situation and the “fix” (which was really to do nothing). And to top it all off, they essentially used all their dry powder so now if action IS needed, where do they go? Negative rates? $10T on their balance sheet?
Fed done fucked up....
While I think petrodollars are important, the US economy (typically) is a LOT more diverse than Libya’s is or was....I don’t think it’s DEPENDENT on petrodollars, but the loss of them sure doesn’t help. And we’ve lost them almost completely as the economies across the globe have essentially shut down and demand drops to historic lows over the past several weeks.CitadelGrad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:41 pmBoom.AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:19 pm
At a time when banks are socking away billions of dollars for projected loan losses from the unnecessary and self-induced economic calamity that’s about to hit, The Fed lowers rates 150 bp and costs us even MORE money on our entire variable rate portfolio....Additionally, any money we had in OUR bank (and yes, even banks have to bank somewhere) is now earning essentially zip squat nada. At my credit union we’ve got $700 million in cash (and growing) sitting earning zero and can’t get people to take it out.I can tell you this: there’s PLENTY of money in the system...and there was even before the fed lowered rates. People are hoarding cash. Plain and simple. And not in their mattresses....but in their bank accounts. Loan payments across the country have been deferred 90 days, and people are sitting on THAT money too, waiting to see what happens with the economy and businesses coming back online. Hell, some folks have MORE money (thanks to the brilliance of the CARES package and the $600 weekly unemployment bump) than they did when they were working.
The treasury curve (upon which mortgage pricing is loosely based) is at an historic low (thanks to demand/flight to safety from the stock market crashing, and the Fed’s buying spree (QE8) among other things), so in the midst of this financial crisis we’re about to have a record month of mortgage fundings....problem is, 87% of the $200 million we’re funding this month are refi’s....nobody’s BUYING, they’re all just ratcheting down their mortgage payment...and hey, good for them...banks don’t hold those on their books anyways, for the most part.
Honestly, IMHO the Fed shouldn’t have done shit. This was NOT, in any way, shape or form, an “economic” issue that needed the Fed to adjust their policies. Crashing their rates, opening up their pocketbook and buying up US Debt, etc., all that did was honestly pour gasoline on an earnings fire for most financial institutions, with no apparent goal...they completely misread the situation and the “fix” (which was really to do nothing). And to top it all off, they essentially used all their dry powder so now if action IS needed, where do they go? Negative rates? $10T on their balance sheet?
Fed done fucked up....
In real terms rates are already negative. European countries (particularly France and Germany) that went ZIRP and NIRP a few years ago in response to the financial crisis have found it impossible to exit from those policies. There is no reason to believe the Fed will be able to do what France and Germany apparently can't do.
kalm thinks liquidity has been stabilized by Fed intervention. In a sense he's right. When there is no demand or supply for credit, you have a stable situation. Not a good situation, but a stable one. The liquidity trap is real and we are in a big one now.
Another concern that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is the possibility that the US Dollar will cease to be the global reserve currency. The only silver lining there is that other currencies, particularly the Euro are getting crushed, as well. Still, the Fed seems determined to tempt the world to abandon the US Dollar. The U.S. simply cannot survive without Petrodollars. Muammar Gaddafi found that out the hard way.
I wasn't comparing the U.S. economy to Libya's. I was pointing out that Q acquiesced to every demand made by the West, but he had the audacity to reject the petrodollar as payment for Libyan oil. Now he's deader than fried chicken. That's no coincidence.AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:42 amWhile I think petrodollars are important, the US economy (typically) is a LOT more diverse than Libya’s is or was....I don’t think it’s DEPENDENT on petrodollars, but the loss of them sure doesn’t help. And we’ve lost them almost completely as the economies across the globe have essentially shut down and demand drops to historic lows over the past several weeks.CitadelGrad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:41 pm
Boom.
In real terms rates are already negative. European countries (particularly France and Germany) that went ZIRP and NIRP a few years ago in response to the financial crisis have found it impossible to exit from those policies. There is no reason to believe the Fed will be able to do what France and Germany apparently can't do.
kalm thinks liquidity has been stabilized by Fed intervention. In a sense he's right. When there is no demand or supply for credit, you have a stable situation. Not a good situation, but a stable one. The liquidity trap is real and we are in a big one now.
Another concern that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is the possibility that the US Dollar will cease to be the global reserve currency. The only silver lining there is that other currencies, particularly the Euro are getting crushed, as well. Still, the Fed seems determined to tempt the world to abandon the US Dollar. The U.S. simply cannot survive without Petrodollars. Muammar Gaddafi found that out the hard way.