How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Yes, nothing is perfect. That’s why I advocate two short (6’) fences, about 50’ apart, with land mines between them.

So you advocate murder. Noted.

If you come in my house illegally you are going out cold. So hell yes

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[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Yes, nothing is perfect. That’s why I advocate two short (6’) fences, about 50’ apart, with land mines between them.

We don't need Middle East type shit over here asshole!

That's why we want a wall

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[JohnStOnge]

Trump is gambling big time. Here's an article with an interesting note in it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/18/busi ... onomy.html

I view the numbers from the Survey Monkey poll referenced in the article with caution because Survey Monkey is an on line poll that is rated D- by 538. But I WOULD take the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index seriously:

On Friday, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to the lowest point of the Trump presidency, well below forecasters’ expectations. Analysts attributed the drop largely to the partial government shutdown, which has entered its fifth week.

Actually, it's the lowest index number since August 2014. Note also that it was produced on January 1 when the shutdown hadn't been going on for very long. It'll be interesting to see what the February 1 number is.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

I advocate defense of our borders. Just like every other country on earth.

Yeah those women and children, they're all terrorists. Damn them tunneling under the border and peacefully waiting for CBP to show up and detain them; we should've blown them up instead. #notmurder

Here we have people who believe in the American Dream so much they're willing to walk thousands of dangerous miles for a chance at it. It's a shame so many Americans view this as un-American.

Maybe if embassies, consulates, or ports of entry actually allowed asylum seekers to turn themselves in, people wouldn't have to resort to desperate acts.

Fix their own fucking country or come here legally. There is no compromise Trump gets it!

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[BDKJMU]

And the Democrats won’t compromise or meet the GOP.


Both sides are at fault...though Trump surely has the lions share


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I think the Democrats might compromise once government is funded. That's the thing. The Democrat position is that they're not going to submit to extortion and I can understand them saying that. The Democrats are going to have to compromise on some things to get what THEY want at some point. But I think they're reasonable in saying they're not going to negotiate until all the things both already agree on are funded.

I mean, we all know the principle with respect to extortion. If you submit to it you encourage future instances of it. And we have a situation in which we know that what he's asking for now is just the first installment.

For Pete's sake if he really believes in the wall let him continue to make the case for it so that the People will want it. If the People want it the Democrats will see that. It'll impact their behavior. Right now they can see that most people DON'T want it. It's not the time to push them on it.

Barely. Last Sunday WaPo/ABC has 54% opposed to a “wall”, 42% approve. How the question is asked, and what is included/omitted can make a big difference. Change “wall” to “fence” or “physical barrier” and approval would increase (ever heard the term “fences make good neighbors”?). .Just like more people will approve of protecting wetlands versus a swamp, a rain forest versus a jungle, etc. Can’t find any recent poll that asks about a “physical barrier” or “fence”. They all use “wall”.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... -high-poll

I’d like to see a poll of likely voters, do you approve/disaprove of additonal “physical barrier” to the current 700+ miles already in place.

[JohnStOnge]

Yeah those women and children, they're all terrorists. Damn them tunneling under the border and peacefully waiting for CBP to show up and detain them; we should've blown them up instead. #notmurder

Here we have people who believe in the American Dream so much they're willing to walk thousands of dangerous miles for a chance at it. It's a shame so many Americans view this as un-American.

Maybe if embassies, consulates, or ports of entry actually allowed asylum seekers to turn themselves in, people wouldn't have to resort to desperate acts.

Fix their own **** country or come here legally. There is no compromise Trump gets it!

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Trump is an idiot who has boxed himself in and the country is suffering as a result. And yes the country is suffering. Some more than others. But this is hurting the economy and it'll get worse as time goes on and the effects accumulate.

As I've said before, if Trump hangs on, the Democrats may cave to at least some extent because they have a positive outlook on government and care about Federal employees. But I don't think that'll be good for Trump and the Republicans in the long run because it'll mean they'll have inflicted a lot of pain in order to force something down the throats of the People that most of the People don't want.

Here's an interesting quote from the article at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/18/busi ... onomy.html that I quoted for another reason in an earlier post:

A former advertising executive, Ms. Cafferata, 74, viewed the shutdown through a business lens.

“Any government shutdown is a reflection of poor management,” she said. “You don’t run a business this way, and to run a country this way is just terrible.”

Trump is the Chief Executive Officer. He should take the blame for what's going on right now and he IS taking the blame as far as most voters are concerned.

[JohnStOnge]

I think the Democrats might compromise once government is funded. That's the thing. The Democrat position is that they're not going to submit to extortion and I can understand them saying that. The Democrats are going to have to compromise on some things to get what THEY want at some point. But I think they're reasonable in saying they're not going to negotiate until all the things both already agree on are funded.

I mean, we all know the principle with respect to extortion. If you submit to it you encourage future instances of it. And we have a situation in which we know that what he's asking for now is just the first installment.

For Pete's sake if he really believes in the wall let him continue to make the case for it so that the People will want it. If the People want it the Democrats will see that. It'll impact their behavior. Right now they can see that most people DON'T want it. It's not the time to push them on it.

Barely. Last Sunday WaPo/ABC has 54% opposed to a “wall”, 42% approve. How the question is asked, and what is included/omitted can make a big difference. Change “wall” to “fence” or “physical barrier” and approval would increase (ever heard the term “fences make good neighbors”?). .Just like more people will approve of protecting wetlands versus a swamp, a rain forest versus a jungle, etc. Can’t find any recent poll that asks about a “physical barrier” or “fence”. They all use “wall”.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... -high-poll

I’d like to see a poll of likely voters, do you approve/disaprove of additonal “physical barrier” to the current 700+ miles already in place.

It's hard to model "likely voters" when there is no election imminent. The most recent poll I've seen that provides wording other than "wall" is a Harvard/Harris poll conducted December 24 - 25 just after the shutdown started. It's at https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-conten ... opline.pdf.

It asked the question of registered voters in two different ways. It does have the question "Do you support building a security barrier on the Mexican border?" 54% of respondents answered "No" vs. 46% who answered "Yes."

It also asked the question: "Do you support building a wall on the Mexican border?" 56% answered "No" and 44% answered "yes."

So using "barrier" instead of "wall" made some difference. But not all that much.

There are another two questions that I think were interesting in terms of response. One was this:

"The House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution that had $5 billion of boarder wall and security but the Democrats in the Senate blocked it, saying they will not fund the barrier the president wants, triggering the partial shutdown. Do you think that the Democrats should fund the $5 billion for the border security or not?"

55% answered "Should not fund" while 45% answered "Should fund."

Then there is the distribution of answers to this question:

"Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?"

58% said "Trump should give in" while 42% said "Should not give in."

There are distributions of answers to questions in another poll of registered voters, one conducted by Qunnipiac during January 9 - 13, that kind of reflect the same general distribution of sentiment. That poll is at https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/u ... tsc21.pdf/. One question is this:

" As you may know, Democrats in Congress have proposed opening the parts of the government that have nothing to do with border security while continuing to negotiate funding for the wall. President Trump has not agreed. Do you support or oppose this proposal?"

63% said "Support" while 30% said "Oppose."

Another question from that poll:

"Do you support or oppose building a wall along the border with Mexico?"

55% said "Oppose" while 43% said "Support."

Nothing I've seen in subsequent polls suggests a detectable change in the general distribution of sentiment.
Things could change with public opinion at any time. Maybe we'll soon see evidence that Trump helped himself with his presentation today. But Trump has clearly been on the short end of the public opinion stick. Voters may not oppose the wall by an overwhelming margin but it's a solid margin. And it's the majority. Trump has clearly pushing for something that has been against the wishes of the majority of the voters. And things haven't changed much over time. Exit polling during the 2016 Presidential election had those who voted opposing a building a wall along the border by 54% to 41%. It did have reference to building a wall along the "entire" border and maybe that had an impact. But the margin is very similar to what's seen in the Harvard and Qunnipiac polls taken during the past month.

The final thing is that the Harvard poll has 43% saying Trump is mostly to blame and 23% saying Democrats are mostly to blame. The Quinnipiac has it 56% Trump vs. 36% Democrats.

I just don't think he should be doing this during these circumstances. If the public supported his wall proposal he'd have a lot better shot and he wouldn't have to cause all this disruption. Focus on getting the public to support the proposal.

[CID1990]

Why can't Trump admit that the vast majority of drugs coming across the border are coming through legal ports of entry? You have to be honest before you can be negotiated with in good faith.

That’s true -

there are plenty of legitimate reasons to be talking better border security - the narcotics angle is largely false

I dont know if it rings true with his base or not... but even if it was true I wouldn’t care anyway. It all needs to be decriminalized


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[CID1990]

Why must Pelosi and Trump play this game? The solution is obvious:

Trump gives: permanent (not 3-year) DACA and TSP protection
Pelosi gives: $3.5B for border security (halfway between her $1.3B and Trump's $5.7B)

This is not hard.

I think it's fine as long as the money doesn't go to the wall. Doubt Trump would agree to that.

Why don’t you want a “wall”?

Did you oppose barrier extensions when they were done over the last ten years?

curious


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[∞∞∞]

So you advocate murder. Noted.

If you come in my house illegally you are going out cold. So hell yes

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Except America isn't your personal home. It's just a big f*cking piece of land.

[∞∞∞]

I think it's fine as long as the money doesn't go to the wall. Doubt Trump would agree to that.

Why don’t you want a “wall”?

Did you oppose barrier extensions when they were done over the last ten years?

curious

I'm on record for an open border. Hell I'd love an EU-type system in the Americas.

As far as I'm concerned, go the other way and tear down everything we have now.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

If you come in my house illegally you are going out cold. So hell yes

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Except America isn't your personal home. It's just a big f*cking piece of land.

Its our land and we have fucking laws to follow. It should be do it or go out cold.

This problem is easily fixed if you are not a fucking pussy. Trump gets it and is gonna get it fixed.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Why don’t you want a “wall”?

Did you oppose barrier extensions when they were done over the last ten years?

curious

I'm on record for an open border. Hell I'd love an EU-type system in the Americas.

As far as I'm concerned, go the other way and tear down everything we have now.

Go to the EU if you want open borders. Quit fucking up our country

[JohnStOnge]

Except America isn't your personal home. It's just a big f*cking piece of land.

Its our land and we have **** laws to follow. It should be do it or go out cold.

This problem is easily fixed if you are not a **** pussy. Trump gets it and is gonna get it fixed.

Trump is not going to get anything fixed. All he's going to do is worsen the discord we've had in recent decades and accelerate the process by which the Democrat Party will gain total dominance as ethnic demographics change. He doesn't even really believe in what he's doing as evidenced by how he's historically conducted his own business while using illegal immigrants. He just came up with some demagoguery to fire people up and get him elected and now he feels like he has to keep the frothing at the mouth nut jobs who sent him to the Republican nomination on his side.

[Grizalltheway]

Except America isn't your personal home. It's just a big f*cking piece of land.

Its our land and we have fucking laws to follow. It should be do it or go out cold.

This problem is easily fixed if you are not a fucking pussy. Trump gets it and is gonna get it fixed.

What's this we shit? You got a turd in your pocket?

[Chizzang]

Its our land and we have fucking laws to follow. It should be do it or go out cold.

This problem is easily fixed if you are not a fucking pussy. Trump gets it and is gonna get it fixed.

What's this we shit? You got a turd in your pocket?

Don't interrupt him, he's on a roll...

[Ibanez]

So what does the base think?

My family is his base and they’ve been tired of his shit.


But they’re like Jon and MJ- they vote for the establishment then complain about the status quo


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[Ibanez]

Except America isn't your personal home. It's just a big f*cking piece of land.

Its our land and we have fucking laws to follow. It should be do it or go out cold.

This problem is easily fixed if you are not a fucking pussy. Trump gets it and is gonna get it fixed.

Oh STFU. I doubt you’ve never broken the law. Ever get a ticket?


And how about your court visits last year?


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[ALPHAGRIZ1]

I never broke any law last year but this year is going to be a lot different since laws don't matter anymore.

I just want to fit in with you liberal fuck heads

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[mainejeff]

I never broke any law last year but this year is going to be a lot different since laws don't matter anymore.

I just want to fit in with you liberal fuck heads

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With Trump in charge you're right....laws don't matter anymore.

I am looking forward to the free-for-all. I love gorilla warfare on social media.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Trump hasn't broke any laws, if he had can you imagine how much you pussies would cry if you had any proof!!?

Your made up stuff everyday is laughable and your tears are embarrassing

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[mainejeff]

Trump hasn't broke any laws, if he had can you imagine how much you pussies would cry if you had any proof!!?

Your made up stuff everyday is laughable and your tears are embarrassing

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I can't wait to take your guns!

[Skjellyfetti]

Thought 93 would enjoy

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Trump hasn't broke any laws, if he had can you imagine how much you pussies would cry if you had any proof!!?

Your made up stuff everyday is laughable and your tears are embarrassing

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I can't wait to take your guns!

Molon Labe......... And I want YOU to do it.

I know you are the kind of douche that runs his mouth then wants somebody else to do the heavy lifting. Please try

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[houndawg]

Isn’t that also exactly what the donks are doing?

Dont’ answer...it’s rhetorical.

No. The House has passed a budget. Trump and McConnell won't consider it until they get ransom.

#TrumpShutdown

They keep fvcking around and Pelosi will just go over their heads and deal directly with Ann Coulter.