I could have put this in the Ukraine thread but I thought Vance's desire to reorient the U.S.’s role in the global order was more interesting and more important in the long-term.Yet that opposition also emerged as one small part of Vance’s much broader — and more sweeping — theory of international affairs. If Vance gets his way, cutting off U.S. funding to Ukraine will be only the first step in a much broader reorientation of the U.S.’s role in the global order.
Vance is deeply skeptical of the so-called rules-based international order — the system of laws, norms and multilateral institutions established in the years following the Second World War to mitigate global conflict and facilitate international economic activity. As Vance sees it, this system has enriched economic elites while harming working-class people who are rooted in older industrial economies — all while failing to deliver on the ultimate goal of liberalizing non-democratic countries like China and Russia.
From this perspective, Vance does not see the United States’ decision to defend “the principles at the heart of the international rules-based order” in Ukraine as part of some high-minded and honorable policy. Instead, Vance sees it as a self-interested effort by economic elites to preserve a global order that advanced their interests while screwing over the type of people he represents in post-industrial Ohio.
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In place of the rules-based international order, Vance thinks the U.S. needs to chart a new, more nationalistic system where individual nations are solely responsible for their own security and economic well-being, and more insulated from global economic and military entanglements. According to Vance, the first step toward nudging the world in that direction is ending U.S. aid to Ukraine — which, as became clear this week, depends on convincing his Republican colleagues in the House to kill Johnson’s foreign aid package.
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Yet Vance’s efforts this week to persuade his Republican colleagues in the House of these specific objections are, in many respects, secondary to his broader goal of shifting the Republican paradigm on foreign policy. As Vance explained to me during our conversations, this larger project goes beyond injecting some “realism” — or, as his critics would call it, “isolationism” — into the foreign policy debates on the right. In a more expansive sense, Vance sees the debate over Ukraine aid as a proxy for the debate over the direction of what he openly calls “the American empire” — and, by extension, of America as a whole.
“The really interesting debate that is happening between the establishment right and the populist right is [about] challenging the premise … that things are going really well,” Vance told me. On the one side, establishment Republicans believe that the American empire is trending in the right direction; populist Republicans believe that the American empire is on the verge of collapse. The establishment points to falling poverty rates around the world; the populist right points to falling birth and life expectancies at home.
Vance maybe right that the rules-based international order has not delivered on the ultimate goal of liberalizing non-democratic countries like China and Russia and has enriched economic elites but I think he's underestimating its impact on peace & prosperity.
- I think the rules-based international order has led to more economic interconnectivity and trade, reduced conflict and because of those, improved the lives of working-class people more than they would have been without it. It's difficult to prove but I also think that we've lost fewer lives to conflict then we would have without it.
- Is he ignoring or undervaluing the role of the "rules-based international order" in the fall of the Berlin Wall/liberalization of eastern Europe and the myriad countries around the world that have become more Democratic since WWII? Would those things have happened in a more nationalistic system where individual nations are solely responsible for their own security and economic well-being?
- The poor in the USA and 1st world nations are living large compared to the rest of the world and to where they were 100+ years ago.
- Would we have the prosperity (and major technological advancements) that we have without the "rules-based international order" that Vance and others want to tear down?