The Ukraine Crisis

[HI54UNI]

Apple has prohibited sales of their product in Russia. What are they going to do when China invades Taiwan? Close all their factories and prohibit sales in China?

[Ibanez]

You mean the convoy that hasn’t moved in 3 days? Because of fuel shortages? Is their cruise control set on ‘0’?

What is is 4 days now and hasn’t moved much? Too bad the Ukranians don’t have adequate air power. Could turn those trucks, APCs & tanks into another Falaise Gap or Highway of Death (Gulf War Highway 80 between Kuwait City & Basrah where Coalition (ok US) air power dedtroyed upwards of 2700 Iraqi vehicles)..

A few A-10s are all you need to clear that highway...

[kalm]

The invasion doesn't happen without a foreign policy that is set on getting Ukraine into NATO. Biden and his foreign policy advisors, who are the same ones with the same policy that resulted in Crimea getting eaten, completely own this.

Can you tell me what moves were made to get Ukraine into NATO?

Ukraine was under a Putin stooge until 2014. Afterwards, NATO wasn't touching Ukraine with a 1000km pole with a proxy war raging with Russia in Donbass and Lukhansk. What steps were being made to get Ukraine into NATO?




And, why would Ukraine ever want NATO? Could it be the threat of invasion by Russia? Get them in NATO. And Finland and Sweden ASAP.

All of this.

Putin and the Oligarchs are either at or past the point of no return financially and their ability to simultaneously fight a war and maintain order at home. Economic and PR warfare is being openly waged and pretty much declared on them. There’s no short term rolling back of these consequences.

Both promising and frightening for obvious reasons.

[Ibanez]

Can you tell me what moves were made to get Ukraine into NATO?

Ukraine was under a Putin stooge until 2014. Afterwards, NATO wasn't touching Ukraine with a 1000km pole with a proxy war raging with Russia in Donbass and Lukhansk. What steps were being made to get Ukraine into NATO?




And, why would Ukraine ever want NATO? Could it be the threat of invasion by Russia? Get them in NATO. And Finland and Sweden ASAP.

All of this.

Putin and the Oligarchs are either at or past the point of no return financially and their ability to simultaneously fight a war and maintain order at home. Economic and PR warfare is being openly waged and pretty much declared on them. There’s no short term rolling back of these consequences.

Both promising and frightening for obvious reasons.

At this point, there's only 2 options

1) Russia quits and whimpers home in embarrassment
2) Push forward

We all know what Vlad is going to chose....he's pushing for a #2

[kalm]

All of this.

Putin and the Oligarchs are either at or past the point of no return financially and their ability to simultaneously fight a war and maintain order at home. Economic and PR warfare is being openly waged and pretty much declared on them. There’s no short term rolling back of these consequences.

Both promising and frightening for obvious reasons.

At this point, there's only 2 options

1) Russia quits and whimpers home in embarrassment
2) Push forward

We all know what Vlad is going to chose....he's pushing for a #2

Might not be much of a home to back to for years and years. So yes.

[kalm]

Then there’s this piece written by Russian economist and Chicago School of Economics PhD Maxim Mironov.

“Many have asked me to comment on sanctions. In a nutshell, my scientific conclusion as a professor of finance, PhD at the University of Chicago is FUCK. And double fucking that the citizens of Russia, even educated, in the majority of their own do not understand what awaits them. Explaining on my fingers.
Very soon, Russians are waiting for a shortage of basic products. I'm not talking about all kinds of iPhones that have already been imported, but about food, clothing, cars, household appliances, etc. d. Russia is very strongly integrated into world trade. And the largest operators refuse to send containers to Russia. But even if a miracle happens, and Russia will find someone who is ready to send containers to Russia for three meters, the question is how to pay for it? Export revenues will be reduced by times, as all buyers will try to refuse Russian goods. We see that even non-dedication oil companies cannot find buyers for their own oil. Gazprom, the main exporter of gas, is already under sanctions, that is, it is unclear how it will receive foreign currency. The Russian Central Bank accumulated a huge cube, of 650 billion dollars. Only more than half of these reserves have already been arrested, and what to do with gold is not very clear either. There is not enough which bank in the world will want to buy it from the Russian Central Bank, so that it does not fall under sanctions or huge fines. Many people think that Russia has built a bunch of factories over the past years, only all these factories - automobile, aviation, household appliances, etc. d. - use the imported components. That is, in the coming months, we are expected to stop whole industries with all the consequences - the shortage of goods, mass unemployment, respectively, the fall of tax collection and, as a result, problems with paying salaries to budgeters. Airplanes even inside Russia will soon stop flying too. After all, they are almost all imported, and the West has already banned the supply of spare parts. That is why we will soon see a mass withdrawal from aircraft operations. The Internet, as we knew it, will also be covered. They have already blocked a bunch of information sites, the other day they are going to block Wikipedia. Twitter, Facebook, is already slowing down. Bout to turn off YouTube. On the occasion of agriculture. Are you aware that in Russia the share of imported seeds is almost 40%? And according to potatoes, the share of imported seeds is 90%? That is, of course, the farmers will come up with something over time, but at least in the short-term it is worth expecting a deficit of basic s/h products and a sharp rise in prices.
And that's not all. Anyone who can get out of the country will begin to get out of the house. It's already raining heavily. The government understands this, that's why they introduced a bunch of measures today to hold back the IT supporters. Only they won't work. Therefore, it is very likely that they will soon introduce travel visas for certain categories or close the country completely.
The only advantage of this story is that those who were nostalgic for the USSR will be able to feel all its charms on their skin. And it will not be a relatively herbivorous USSR like Khrushchev-Brezhneva-Gorbachev, but the USSR, headed by a crazy dictator.”

[Ibanez]

At this point, there's only 2 options

1) Russia quits and whimpers home in embarrassment
2) Push forward

We all know what Vlad is going to chose....he's pushing for a #2

Might not be much of a home to back to for years and years. So yes.

That's right. To go home where your people are protesting against you, your "military" is crying and doesn't want to fight, you are cut off from world financially and your country can be purchased for $10,000 and the M*A*S*H box set.

[Skjellyfetti]

Then there’s this piece written by Russian economist and Chicago School of Economics PhD Maxim Mironov.

“Many have asked me to comment on sanctions. In a nutshell, my scientific conclusion as a professor of finance, PhD at the University of Chicago is FUCK. And double fucking that the citizens of Russia, even educated, in the majority of their own do not understand what awaits them. Explaining on my fingers.
Very soon, Russians are waiting for a shortage of basic products. I'm not talking about all kinds of iPhones that have already been imported, but about food, clothing, cars, household appliances, etc. d. Russia is very strongly integrated into world trade. And the largest operators refuse to send containers to Russia. But even if a miracle happens, and Russia will find someone who is ready to send containers to Russia for three meters, the question is how to pay for it? Export revenues will be reduced by times, as all buyers will try to refuse Russian goods. We see that even non-dedication oil companies cannot find buyers for their own oil. Gazprom, the main exporter of gas, is already under sanctions, that is, it is unclear how it will receive foreign currency. The Russian Central Bank accumulated a huge cube, of 650 billion dollars. Only more than half of these reserves have already been arrested, and what to do with gold is not very clear either. There is not enough which bank in the world will want to buy it from the Russian Central Bank, so that it does not fall under sanctions or huge fines. Many people think that Russia has built a bunch of factories over the past years, only all these factories - automobile, aviation, household appliances, etc. d. - use the imported components. That is, in the coming months, we are expected to stop whole industries with all the consequences - the shortage of goods, mass unemployment, respectively, the fall of tax collection and, as a result, problems with paying salaries to budgeters. Airplanes even inside Russia will soon stop flying too. After all, they are almost all imported, and the West has already banned the supply of spare parts. That is why we will soon see a mass withdrawal from aircraft operations. The Internet, as we knew it, will also be covered. They have already blocked a bunch of information sites, the other day they are going to block Wikipedia. Twitter, Facebook, is already slowing down. Bout to turn off YouTube. On the occasion of agriculture. Are you aware that in Russia the share of imported seeds is almost 40%? And according to potatoes, the share of imported seeds is 90%? That is, of course, the farmers will come up with something over time, but at least in the short-term it is worth expecting a deficit of basic s/h products and a sharp rise in prices.
And that's not all. Anyone who can get out of the country will begin to get out of the house. It's already raining heavily. The government understands this, that's why they introduced a bunch of measures today to hold back the IT supporters. Only they won't work. Therefore, it is very likely that they will soon introduce travel visas for certain categories or close the country completely.
The only advantage of this story is that those who were nostalgic for the USSR will be able to feel all its charms on their skin. And it will not be a relatively herbivorous USSR like Khrushchev-Brezhneva-Gorbachev, but the USSR, headed by a crazy dictator.”

[kalm]

Then there’s this piece written by Russian economist and Chicago School of Economics PhD Maxim Mironov.

“Many have asked me to comment on sanctions. In a nutshell, my scientific conclusion as a professor of finance, PhD at the University of Chicago is FUCK. And double fucking that the citizens of Russia, even educated, in the majority of their own do not understand what awaits them. Explaining on my fingers.
Very soon, Russians are waiting for a shortage of basic products. I'm not talking about all kinds of iPhones that have already been imported, but about food, clothing, cars, household appliances, etc. d. Russia is very strongly integrated into world trade. And the largest operators refuse to send containers to Russia. But even if a miracle happens, and Russia will find someone who is ready to send containers to Russia for three meters, the question is how to pay for it? Export revenues will be reduced by times, as all buyers will try to refuse Russian goods. We see that even non-dedication oil companies cannot find buyers for their own oil. Gazprom, the main exporter of gas, is already under sanctions, that is, it is unclear how it will receive foreign currency. The Russian Central Bank accumulated a huge cube, of 650 billion dollars. Only more than half of these reserves have already been arrested, and what to do with gold is not very clear either. There is not enough which bank in the world will want to buy it from the Russian Central Bank, so that it does not fall under sanctions or huge fines. Many people think that Russia has built a bunch of factories over the past years, only all these factories - automobile, aviation, household appliances, etc. d. - use the imported components. That is, in the coming months, we are expected to stop whole industries with all the consequences - the shortage of goods, mass unemployment, respectively, the fall of tax collection and, as a result, problems with paying salaries to budgeters. Airplanes even inside Russia will soon stop flying too. After all, they are almost all imported, and the West has already banned the supply of spare parts. That is why we will soon see a mass withdrawal from aircraft operations. The Internet, as we knew it, will also be covered. They have already blocked a bunch of information sites, the other day they are going to block Wikipedia. Twitter, Facebook, is already slowing down. Bout to turn off YouTube. On the occasion of agriculture. Are you aware that in Russia the share of imported seeds is almost 40%? And according to potatoes, the share of imported seeds is 90%? That is, of course, the farmers will come up with something over time, but at least in the short-term it is worth expecting a deficit of basic s/h products and a sharp rise in prices.
And that's not all. Anyone who can get out of the country will begin to get out of the house. It's already raining heavily. The government understands this, that's why they introduced a bunch of measures today to hold back the IT supporters. Only they won't work. Therefore, it is very likely that they will soon introduce travel visas for certain categories or close the country completely.
The only advantage of this story is that those who were nostalgic for the USSR will be able to feel all its charms on their skin. And it will not be a relatively herbivorous USSR like Khrushchev-Brezhneva-Gorbachev, but the USSR, headed by a crazy dictator.”

Saw that one too. They know they’re fucked.

[GannonFan]

Saw that one too. They know they’re fucked.

I think they know that too. Big question is what they do as a response to knowing they're screwed (do they go all in on attacking NATO) and if any other nation state *cough* China *cough* comes in to their rescue. China is still thinking about how all of this factors into their plan to swallow up Taiwan. If they think the world order is breaking down enough that now's the time to pull the trigger on Taiwan they will.

[Skjellyfetti]

I think China is less likely to invade Taiwan than they were previously.

If Russia's Ukraine 'special military operation' went smoothly and western nations were not united in hammering Russia economically, I think they would be emboldened.

China definitely has more available to hurt the West if they choose, but I do not think they are looking at Russia and saying "Ooooo, let's do that as well!" at the moment.

China not emerging as lifeline for sanction-slammed Russian economy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... t-ukraine/

[Skjellyfetti]

regarding that long RU column...

[Winterborn]

Apple has prohibited sales of their product in Russia. What are they going to do when China invades Taiwan? Close all their factories and prohibit sales in China?

If had to bet, it is nothing. Boycotting China would hit the old wallet. Russia is just a blip in that regards.

[Winterborn]

I think China is less likely to invade Taiwan than they were previously.

If Russia's Ukraine 'special military operation' went smoothly and western nations were not united in hammering Russia economically, I think they would be emboldened.

China definitely has more available to hurt the West if they choose, but I do not think they are looking at Russia and saying "Ooooo, let's do that as well!" at the moment.

China not emerging as lifeline for sanction-slammed Russian economy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... t-ukraine/

Disagree. Comparing Ukraine to Taiwan is like comparing apples and oranges.

If anything, Ukraine provides a distraction to the world (cover for China) and gives some "legitimacy" for China taking over Taiwan.

Xi has made too many promises to back down from his claim over Taiwan.

[Skjellyfetti]

I didn't say he's going to backdown from his claim. I just doubt an invasion looks appealing atm. But, who knows.

[GannonFan]

I think China is less likely to invade Taiwan than they were previously.

If Russia's Ukraine 'special military operation' went smoothly and western nations were not united in hammering Russia economically, I think they would be emboldened.

China definitely has more available to hurt the West if they choose, but I do not think they are looking at Russia and saying "Ooooo, let's do that as well!" at the moment.

China not emerging as lifeline for sanction-slammed Russian economy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... t-ukraine/

Well, China is nothing if not patient. They can certainly say they'll wait until the time is better.

But, they've been far more nationalistic and imperial now than ever in recent memory, and they have a lot of face to lose by not completing the re-consolidation of what they consider to be China than ever before. What they could be learning from this is simply just to plan it better and make it quick. They could see the mistake Russia made is that they let Ukraine survive long enough to show their defiance and to put faces on that resistance. And Russia has always been notorious for plodding when it comes to the military - China could just be seeing this the mistake to avoid.

In addition, while we think the response from the West has been great in this instance, there are questions to be asked. For how long will the West pay attention to this? If Russia just goes real slow, lays siege to multiple cities in Ukraine, and just slow walks the absorption of Ukraine over the next year or two, will the West keep caring? Also, while we're all patting ourselves on the back that we're sending money and weapons, China is certainly noticing that we're not helping in any other military matters (air support, naval support, boots on the ground). If China becomes convinced that we won't engage militarily with them as they invade Taiwan then taking Taiwan becomes a much simpler matter. And lastly, shutting off Russia from the world economy, in the grand scheme of things, was/is a pretty easy thing to do. Russia doesn't really make a lot of things and no one really relies on Russia for things other than natural gas and oil, and there are certainly other options for that, even with a rise in prices. We can cut Russia off and it's no real pain for the rest of the world. However, we try to do that with China and the world as we know it pretty much comes to a close. And that's even assuming we can get worldwide consensus on that, which, given the reliance on China for so many nations, is pretty much unlikely.

The fact that China hasn't been siding with the world in their condemnation of Russia looks to me like China is just biding their time to take Taiwan.

[Skjellyfetti]

Well, China is nothing if not patient. They can certainly say they'll wait until the time is better.

That's essentially what I'm saying as well. I'm not saying China has given up the desire to ever have Taiwan. I'm saying that if China was looking at Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a trial balloon... they'll be postponing it indefinitely, imo.

In addition, while we think the response from the West has been great in this instance, there are questions to be asked. For how long will the West pay attention to this? If Russia just goes real slow, lays siege to multiple cities in Ukraine, and just slow walks the absorption of Ukraine over the next year or two, will the West keep caring?

I really doubt Russia can sustain this for a couple of years. They're already having trouble feeding their troops. Putin's 'war chest' has all but evaporated.

Also, while we're all patting ourselves on the back that we're sending money and weapons, China is certainly noticing that we're not helping in any other military matters (air support, naval support, boots on the ground). If China becomes convinced that we won't engage militarily with them as they invade Taiwan then taking Taiwan becomes a much simpler matter.

Pretty sure China is already convinced of that. Same as Russia was pretty well convinced we could not engage them militarily over Ukraine. They're both nuclear powers. The risk of nuclear powers going to war against each other is just too great. Fighting proxy wars... sure. But, we aren't getting directly involved with China or Russia.

We do not have a defense treaty with Ukraine. We can help them fight by proxy.
We have a pretty weak treaty with Taiwan. I do not believe we would go to war with China over Taiwan and would help them fight by proxy.

And lastly, shutting off Russia from the world economy, in the grand scheme of things, was/is a pretty easy thing to do. Russia doesn't really make a lot of things and no one really relies on Russia for things other than natural gas and oil, and there are certainly other options for that, even with a rise in prices. We can cut Russia off and it's no real pain for the rest of the world. However, we try to do that with China and the world as we know it pretty much comes to a close. And that's even assuming we can get worldwide consensus on that, which, given the reliance on China for so many nations, is pretty much unlikely.

I agree and said similarly in less words.

The fact that China hasn't been siding with the world in their condemnation of Russia looks to me like China is just biding their time to take Taiwan.

Yes, I also agree that they are biding their time.

[Skjellyfetti]

[BDKJMU]

What is is 4 days now and hasn’t moved much? Too bad the Ukranians don’t have adequate air power. Could turn those trucks, APCs & tanks into another Falaise Gap or Highway of Death (Gulf War Highway 80 between Kuwait City & Basrah where Coalition (ok US) air power dedtroyed upwards of 2700 Iraqi vehicles)..

A few A-10s are all you need to clear that highway...

Does Ukraine have any A10s?

I realize the A10 is a flying tank, but wouldn’t it be vulnerable to the Soviet air superiority: Migs (29s & 31s) and SU (27 & 30s)?
Also to SAMs.

[BDKJMU]

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) panned tweet from three months ago, which used a misleading graph showing gas prices going down 2 cents per gallon and credited President Biden, is looking worse as gas prices continue to skyrocket during the Russia-Ukraine war.

Twitter users criticized the December tweet for its misleading Y axis, which had no start date and showed gas prices only dropping, ignoring the previous spike in prices during Biden's presidency….

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/dc ... weet-worse

Let’s see the Feb-March update

[BDKJMU]

US oil production
Feb 2020: 12.8 million barrels per day.
Dec 2021: 11.6 million barrels per day.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... rfpus2&f=m

So were -1.2 million barrels per day.

2021 US imported record 670k barrells per day. https://cnsnews.com/article/washington/ ... first-year

So we should be able to easily make up what import from Russia. Oil exports are Russia’s # 1 source of income. Let that sink in a minute. The Biden admin is financing Putin’s war on Ukraine via their anti production stance in the US.

[BDKJMU]

Apple has prohibited sales of their product in Russia. What are they going to do when China invades Taiwan? Close all their factories and prohibit sales in China?

If had to bet, it is nothing. Boycotting China would hit the old wallet. Russia is just a blip in that regards.

I was going to ask, when China invades Taiwan are we going to see the same across the board support (both sides of the political aisle, big business, Hollywood, sports world, etc) for Taiwan that we’re seeing for Ukraine?

[BDKJMU]

Apparently the Russians have shelled some nuke plant in Ukraine, and its on fire. That can’t be good.

[Ibanez]

A few A-10s are all you need to clear that highway...

Does Ukraine have any A10s?

I realize the A10 is a flying tank, but wouldn’t it be vulnerable to the Soviet air superiority: Migs (29s & 31s) and SU (27 & 30s)?
Also to SAMs.

From all accounts the Russian AF is MIA. No concerns there


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[CID1990]

A few A-10s are all you need to clear that highway...

Does Ukraine have any A10s?

I realize the A10 is a flying tank, but wouldn’t it be vulnerable to the Soviet air superiority: Migs (29s & 31s) and SU (27 & 30s)?
Also to SAMs.

They have Su-25s

Arguably better than the A-10, particularly when it comes to ability to operate from unprepared airfields and use multiple fuel types, including diesel

They had about 60 at the start of thr invasion. Im sure the Russians didnt kill them all. The convoy likely has imbedded BUK launchers which is its only saving grace


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