Don't Follow The Herd

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Col Hogan
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Don't Follow The Herd

Post by Col Hogan »

Glen Beck has an interesting item on cnn.com that I just finished...and got be thinking...

I've seen the beginings of what he talks about here in the DC area...what about where you are???

Are we headed for a depression??? If yes, 1929 level??? or not as bad???

Read...and I'd love your thoughts...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/02/28/beck.c ... index.html
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Re: Don't Follow The Herd

Post by dbackjon »

Interesting.

Some of it becomes self-fulfilling.
Take my boss - she is trying to move to a bigger house - her two stepdaughters are getting older, and want a separate room each. She makes 200K year, great credit, etc. She found a house they like, that is in the same elementary, middle and high school boundary (actually only three blocks from her house). But she is having problems getting a mortgage - the mortgage company is afraid that since she is buying a house so close to her old one, she is just buying the new one as an investment. They are basically wanting her to mover out of the old, and either sell the old house, or get renters with signed lease before they will loan her the money (they want to sell old house).

CRAZY!!


And no, we will not have a 1929 meltdown. All the safety nets that BigApp and others decry (Medicare, Social Security, Welfare) will see to that.
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Re: Don't Follow The Herd

Post by bobbythekidd »

Thanks for the support story Jon. It points out an interesting human reaction to a perceived down turn. I'm not saying that there is no downturn, but I am saying people tend to think every downturn is bigger than it really is.

The sub prime loans are the ones going belly up. Subprimes are a small portion of the entire mortgage market. The ENTIRE market is not really in any trouble, but people are reacting to the news of the sub primes as it it were the market as a whole. It is this reaction that is affecting the entire market. We are causing it ourselves to some degree.

When gas goes up by a dime people scream that they can't afford it for about a month then the cries die out. A tank of gas stays with us for about a week then we buy it again. After a few fill ups, we get used to it. Houses stay around a lot longer so we freak out about the market for alot longer. In a couple or three years everything will go back to chugging along like we were before.
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Re: Don't Follow The Herd

Post by dbackjon »

There is a housing "crisis" in places like Phoenix - but it is mainly the speculators that are being burned - that and under funded companies that thought the housing market was a get rich scheme. Even though housing prices have declined, they are still way up over 4-5 years ago. But people panic, because they though they had a right to 10-15% appreciation every year, and built their financial house of cards on that assumption. Now, they can't get that fifth home equity loan to pay off Christmas/Caribbean cruise because they have no equity, and Congress/FED/Bush et all think that is a major reason to panic.


So, a family has to move from a 3,000 square foot McMansion to a tiny 2,000 square foot house. So, you have to give up the "Media Room" and actually watch TV with the rest of the family. Big fucking deal.
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Re: Don't Follow The Herd

Post by AZGrizFan »

dbackjon wrote:There is a housing "crisis" in places like Phoenix - but it is mainly the speculators that are being burned - that and under funded companies that thought the housing market was a get rich scheme. Even though housing prices have declined, they are still way up over 4-5 years ago. But people panic, because they though they had a right to 10-15% appreciation every year, and built their financial house of cards on that assumption. Now, they can't get that fifth home equity loan to pay off Christmas/Caribbean cruise because they have no equity, and Congress/FED/Bush et all think that is a major reason to panic.


So, a family has to move from a 3,000 square foot McMansion to a tiny 2,000 square foot house. So, you have to give up the "Media Room" and actually watch TV with the rest of the family. Big f**k[*] deal.
You've never attempted to watch TV with my family. :evil: :evil: :evil:
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Re: Don't Follow The Herd

Post by dbackjon »

AZGrizFan wrote:
dbackjon wrote:There is a housing "crisis" in places like Phoenix - but it is mainly the speculators that are being burned - that and under funded companies that thought the housing market was a get rich scheme. Even though housing prices have declined, they are still way up over 4-5 years ago. But people panic, because they though they had a right to 10-15% appreciation every year, and built their financial house of cards on that assumption. Now, they can't get that fifth home equity loan to pay off Christmas/Caribbean cruise because they have no equity, and Congress/FED/Bush et all think that is a major reason to panic.


So, a family has to move from a 3,000 square foot McMansion to a tiny 2,000 square foot house. So, you have to give up the "Media Room" and actually watch TV with the rest of the family. Big f**k[*] deal.
You've never attempted to watch TV with my family. :evil: :evil: :evil:
I thought you were the "Man" of the house, and what you wanted to watch was the rule...
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Re: Don't Follow The Herd

Post by Ibanez »

We'll never see a Depression like 1929 ever again. Bank Failures do occur, but standards and back ups are in place where people won't lose money like they did in 1929. Also, many of these people losing homes are people that honestly, couldn't afford it in the first place. Arms, Pay Option Arms, 5 year Interest Only loans are good but many people have gotten in without fully understanding them and/or without planning ahead.
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Re: Don't Follow The Herd

Post by AZGrizFan »

dbackjon wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote: You've never attempted to watch TV with my family. :evil: :evil: :evil:
I thought you were the "Man" of the house, and what you wanted to watch was the rule...
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

That's funny. :evil:

I'll be the man of the house tonight, but only because I took my wife to the airport today. :roll:
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Re: Don't Follow The Herd

Post by dbackjon »

AZGrizFan wrote:
dbackjon wrote: I thought you were the "Man" of the house, and what you wanted to watch was the rule...
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

That's funny. :evil:

I'll be the man of the house tonight, but only because I took my wife to the airport today. :roll:
LMGAO!!!
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