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Looks like a dead heat with 36% counted. Far from over.

93henfan wrote:Looks like a dead heat with 36% counted. Far from over.

You cant just look at data, you gotta look at where the data is from. It Is OVER!

UNHWildCats wrote:

93henfan wrote:Looks like a dead heat with 36% counted. Far from over.

You cant just look at data, you gotta look at where the data is from. It Is OVER!

Explain please. It's a dead heat with only 36% of the votes in. It's certainly trending Sestak's way, but no one has called anything.

Sestak takes a 3K vote lead (173K to 170K) at 37%. Looking better and better.

Now Sestak takes a 12K lead in votes at 42% reporting. Maybe this will get called soon. Go Joe.

Sestak moves ahead 52/48% with 45% reporting.

93henfan wrote:

UNHWildCats wrote: You cant just look at data, you gotta look at where the data is from. It Is OVER!

Explain please. It's a dead heat with only 36% of the votes in. It's certainly trending Sestak's way, but no one has called anything.

Ok lets look at it this way. If Delaware and James Madison are going head to head for votes for best football team and are tied at 50% each with 95% of the votes in Virginia already counted buy only 48% in Delaware counted, even though the race was tied its easy to assume Delaware would win.

Same here. The race is close but Specters strong areas are for the most part in already whereas Sestak will do very well in the areas that have yet to report.

AP calls it for Sestak.

NBC calls it 30 mins after I did :p

Specter ran this ad a lot..probably helped do him in.

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Bronco wrote:Specter ran this ad a lot..probably helped do him in.

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Actually, if Specter could have gotten the Philadelphia black vote to turn out, he could have won handily. That's why he was running that commercial. He wanted Obama to campaign for him in person, and I'm sure Ed Rendell was lobbying the White House hard to get Obama to walk the hood with Specter, but the messiah kept his distance. I'm guessing Obama was hedging his bets in case Sestak did pull it out. Now he can campaign for Sestak through November without looking like his first choice of candidate flopped.

Obama did everything he could for Specter, short of walking the 'hood with him. This doesn't reflect well on Obama any way you look at it.

CitadelGrad wrote:Obama did everything he could for Specter, short of walking the 'hood with him. This doesn't reflect well on Obama any way you look at it.

Hate blinds you. Specter lost his job because Obama wanted him gone. It's a no-brainer: do you keep a smart, politically savvy, traitor, who is actuarially challenged anyway, in your house or do you replace him with some new, perhaps more malleable, talent? Dropped him like sandbag out of a hot-air balloon.

93henfan is right: AF1 flys in, Obama and Specter eat some soul food in the hood, and Arlen has a job this morning.

houndawg wrote:

CitadelGrad wrote:Obama did everything he could for Specter, short of walking the 'hood with him. This doesn't reflect well on Obama any way you look at it.

Hate blinds you. Specter lost his job because Obama wanted him gone. It's a no-brainer: do you keep a smart, politically savvy, traitor, who is actuarially challenged anyway, in your house or do you replace him with some new, perhaps more malleable, talent? Dropped him like sandbag out of a hot-air balloon.

93henfan is right: AF1 flys in, Obama and Specter eat some soul food in the hood, and Arlen has a job this morning.

Say what? No heaping helping of soul food would have saved Arlen yesterday. Obama is a coward. He had short political coattails in Massachusetts, NJ and Virginia this past year, and probably figured that what little political capital he has wasn't worth wasting on Specter when the "Big Mo" of anti-incumbency was swinging Sestak's way.

houndawg wrote:

CitadelGrad wrote:Obama did everything he could for Specter, short of walking the 'hood with him. This doesn't reflect well on Obama any way you look at it.

Hate blinds you. Specter lost his job because Obama wanted him gone. It's a no-brainer: do you keep a smart, politically savvy, traitor, who is actuarially challenged anyway, in your house or do you replace him with some new, perhaps more malleable, talent? Dropped him like sandbag out of a hot-air balloon.

93henfan is right: AF1 flys in, Obama and Specter eat some soul food in the hood, and Arlen has a job this morning.

"Malleable?" Are you talking about the Sestak who refused a job offer from the White House in return for staying out of the race?

With friends like Obama, who needs enemies?!?!???

Ivytalk wrote:

houndawg wrote:
Hate blinds you. Specter lost his job because Obama wanted him gone. It's a no-brainer: do you keep a smart, politically savvy, traitor, who is actuarially challenged anyway, in your house or do you replace him with some new, perhaps more malleable, talent? Dropped him like sandbag out of a hot-air balloon.

93henfan is right: AF1 flys in, Obama and Specter eat some soul food in the hood, and Arlen has a job this morning.

Say what? No heaping helping of soul food would have saved Arlen yesterday. Obama is a coward. He had short political coattails in Massachusetts, NJ and Virginia this past year, and probably figured that what little political capital he has wasn't worth wasting on Specter when the "Big Mo" of anti-incumbency was swinging Sestak's way.

I know it may be hard for people outside of Pennsylvania to understand, but Obama clearly went for Specter in this one, as well as did the Democratic establishment. Sestak is not terribly well liked by that establishment and guys like Rendell couldn't have done more to try to help Specter in this race. Obama stayed away late because it was clear that Specter was in tons of trouble and there was nothing Obama could do to turn the tide. Specter was a bad bet and it kept getting worse as we got closer to the election. No sense trying to come in late and back a losing candidate when your presence won't change the inevitable.

Going forward, it'll be an interesting race. Sestak could campaign easily against Specter because of so many reasons not to like Specter. However, Toomey's going to be able to paint Sestak as a Pelosi Democrat since he's been there since the Dems took over Congress in '06 and Toomey wasn't there during the worst excesses of the Republican Congress that came before it. But Toomey is also too socially conservative for most people's taste and that will offset his fiscal positions. Should make for a lively election in the Fall.

Ivytalk wrote:

houndawg wrote:
Hate blinds you. Specter lost his job because Obama wanted him gone. It's a no-brainer: do you keep a smart, politically savvy, traitor, who is actuarially challenged anyway, in your house or do you replace him with some new, perhaps more malleable, talent? Dropped him like sandbag out of a hot-air balloon.

93henfan is right: AF1 flys in, Obama and Specter eat some soul food in the hood, and Arlen has a job this morning.

Say what? No heaping helping of soul food would have saved Arlen yesterday. Obama is a coward. He had short political coattails in Massachusetts, NJ and Virginia this past year, and probably figured that what little political capital he has wasn't worth wasting on Specter when the "Big Mo" of anti-incumbency was swinging Sestak's way.

Spot on. Specter has always been a RINO (which PA'ers seemed to like...allowed them to self-define as "conservatives" despite being left-of-mainstream/center). His jump was unquestionably out of self-preservation once he saw polls showing his constituency had moved farther to the left (and the Hill Rep's had told him to take a hike). Bottomline is, he abandoned the most important tenet of Hill politics: Once you take a stand, you run with it as, from a voter's viewpoint, few things are worse than a waffling politician.

To suggest he lost because Obama wanted him gone is pure delusion.

houndawg wrote:

CitadelGrad wrote:Obama did everything he could for Specter, short of walking the 'hood with him. This doesn't reflect well on Obama any way you look at it.

Hate blinds you. Specter lost his job because Obama wanted him gone. It's a no-brainer: do you keep a smart, politically savvy, traitor, who is actuarially challenged anyway, in your house or do you replace him with some new, perhaps more malleable, talent? Dropped him like sandbag out of a hot-air balloon.

93henfan is right: AF1 flys in, Obama and Specter eat some soul food in the hood, and Arlen has a job this morning.

Dawg, do you have even a clue how much more credible your post would have been if you had left out the first three words? Accusing those who have different opinions than you of "hate" simply because their line of thinking is incongruous with your own is not conducive to changing heart OR minds.

But then maybe that isn't your intent anyway?

Question for you Pa folks. While I am certain the anti-Washington fervor didn't help Specter, this seems to be more anti-Specter than anti-Washington. Am I right?

OL FU wrote:Question for you Pa folks. While I am certain the anti-Washington fervor didn't help Specter, this seems to be more anti-Specter than anti-Washington. Am I right?

I'm not "Pa folk" but I am in the Philly TV market and absorbed all the ads and news coverage.

I'd actually say this was more anti-Washington than anti-Specter. Specter has pulled in tremendous amounts of pork for the state and the governor (Ed Rendell) was doing everything he could for Specter. I think this was a referendum on career politicians in general, not the man himself. Sestak's TV spot, which I posted a couple weeks back here, was very, very effective as well.

Now, I'll let the real PA folks talk...

93henfan wrote:

OL FU wrote:Question for you Pa folks. While I am certain the anti-Washington fervor didn't help Specter, this seems to be more anti-Specter than anti-Washington. Am I right?

I'm not "Pa folk" but I am in the Philly TV market and absorbed all the ads and news coverage.

I'd actually say this was more anti-Washington than anti-Specter. Specter has pulled in tremendous amounts of pork for the state and the governor (Ed Rendell) was doing everything he could for Specter. I think this was a referendum on career politicians in general, not the man himself. Sestak's TV spot, which I posted a couple weeks back here, was very, very effective as well.

Now, I'll let the real PA folks talk...

Not disagreeing just asking. you think that was more important than Democrats voting against Specter for years and then all of a sudden being ask to vote for him. Primaries generally get participation from the base.

OL FU wrote:

93henfan wrote:
I'm not "Pa folk" but I am in the Philly TV market and absorbed all the ads and news coverage.

I'd actually say this was more anti-Washington than anti-Specter. Specter has pulled in tremendous amounts of pork for the state and the governor (Ed Rendell) was doing everything he could for Specter. I think this was a referendum on career politicians in general, not the man himself. Sestak's TV spot, which I posted a couple weeks back here, was very, very effective as well.

Now, I'll let the real PA folks talk...

Not disagreeing just asking. you think that was more important than Democrats voting against Specter for years and then all of a sudden being ask to vote for him. Primaries generally get participation from the base.

I think a lot of Democrats were voting for Specter all those years. Democrats have voted for Mike Castle in Delaware in droves for decades. As has been mentioned before, Specter was a RINO, as is Castle.

93henfan wrote:

OL FU wrote:
Not disagreeing just asking. you think that was more important than Democrats voting against Specter for years and then all of a sudden being ask to vote for him. Primaries generally get participation from the base.

I think a lot of Democrats were voting for Specter all those years. Democrats have voted for Mike Castle in Delaware in droves for decades. As has been mentioned before, Specter was a RINO, as is Castle.

Alrighty, just glad he is gone

93henfan wrote:

OL FU wrote:
Not disagreeing just asking. you think that was more important than Democrats voting against Specter for years and then all of a sudden being ask to vote for him. Primaries generally get participation from the base.

I think a lot of Democrats were voting for Specter all those years. Democrats have voted for Mike Castle in Delaware in droves for decades. As has been mentioned before, Specter was a RINO, as is Castle.

Yeah, Specter has had broad based support for years and had always counted on a fair number of Democrats voting him in. His biggest obstacle in the past wasn't Democrats, it was the hard right of the Republican party (both the social and the fiscal conservative crowd). He almost lost to Toomey in the '04 primaries and would've lost by at least 20% points this time around had he stayed with the GOP.

But I think this was a combination of anti-Washington and anti-Specter sentiment. Specter represented the old model of just bringing in as much money to the state as possible, national ramifications be damned. And if that involved a lot of messy backdoor deals then so be it. That's gone out of vogue a little bit in lots of places as runaway government spending has gotten bad enough that an actual movement opposed to it is flourishing. And to top it off, outside of places like Massachusetts and West Virginia, people tend to be turned off by really old, creepy looking, career politicians still trying to be reelected for what seems to be just the attraction of holding power. Specter's sudden change in party, and then the video clip of him gleefully saying that by doing so he'll get to be re-elected, couldn't have gone over well with many people.