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In the only House race that really mattered to both parties—the special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha in Pennsylvania’s 12th District—Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition.

Given the resources the GOP poured into the effort to capture the seat and the decisiveness of the defeat—as it turned out, it wasn’t really that close—the outcome casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy and offers comfort to a Democratic Party that is desperately in search of a glimmer of hope.

The district itself couldn’t have been more primed for a Republican victory. According to one recent poll, President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the 12th was a dismal 35 percent, compared to 55 percent who disapproved. His health care plan was equally unpopular—just 30 percent of those polled supported it, while 58 percent were in opposition.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was even more disliked in the blue-collar, western Pennsylvania-based seat: Just 23 percent viewed her favorably, compared to 63 percent who viewed her unfavorably.

Still, Democrat Mark Critz managed to pull off an eight-point victory, 53 percent to 45 percent, over Republican Tim Burns in a district that John McCain narrowly won in 2008—the only one in the nation that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and McCain four years later.

The race marked the third highly-contested, fair-fight special House election that the GOP has dropped in the last year.







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The explanation that I saw on CNN actually made sense. The Democrat was Murtha's chief of staff, and the good people of Johnstown obviously felt that they would keep getting more earmarks and federal pork out of Gritz, or whatever his name is.

Ivytalk wrote:The explanation that I saw on CNN actually made sense. The Democrat was Murtha's chief of staff, and the good people of Johnstown obviously felt that they would keep getting more earmarks and federal pork out of Gritz, or whatever his name is.

And having visited Johnstown more than once on business...I feel safe in saying that after West Virginia, that is the Entitlement Capitol of the World...

I don't know how you call the 12th District a level playing field. Democrats hold a significant registration advantage in that district, the guy who won was a Murtha guy, and Murtha's widow even came out in his support. And it's hard to imagine a place that has gotten more earmarks over the past 3 decades than that district - without Murtha's ability to funnel money into that district half the people who are there now would've moved years ago. They couldn't afford to lose their lifeline by going against the current party in power.

District voted for McCain in 2008...

dbackjon wrote:District voted for McCain in 2008...

and voted for Kerry in 2004 - the only district out of 435 in America to go for both losers in both the last 2 Presidential elections.

Doesn't mean a whole lot though - it's a pretty conservative, Democratic district. And when it comes to Congressmen, they like to vote for whomever can bring in the money. Murtha did that almost better than anyone else out there - the hope is that this guy can keep it up. Maybe they can build another runway or two at the airport that no one uses.

dbackjon wrote:District voted for McCain in 2008...

Um, I think it's a pigmentation thing...

Hilarious....also in the article.

Just as important, he made plain that he was a Murtha-style Democrat– pro-gun, anti-abortion and unafraid to cross his national party. Critz opposed the healthcare bill and kept his distance from Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi – both of whom Republicans tried to tie him to.

Staying away from Obama seems to be the ticket to being a winner.

GannonFan wrote:

dbackjon wrote:District voted for McCain in 2008...

and voted for Kerry in 2004 - the only district out of 435 in America to go for both losers in both the last 2 Presidential elections.

Doesn't mean a whole lot though - it's a pretty conservative, Democratic district. And when it comes to Congressmen, they like to vote for whomever can bring in the money. Murtha did that almost better than anyone else out there - the hope is that this guy can keep it up. Maybe they can build another runway or two at the airport that no one uses.

Colonel Hogan was spot on in his assessment of the district as having an "entitlement" mentality.

Murtha was one of the sleaziest scumbuckets in history. When I was in charge of a multi-million dollar block upgrade program, I was constantly barraged with direct unequivocal threats by Murtha lobbyists to include unneeded equipment manufactured by companies in Murtha's district into the block upgrade. They weren't even subtle.

Fortunately, my boss backed me up and I was able to hold them off. ...then again, the block upgrade was severely downsized...

dbackjon wrote:District voted for McCain in 2008...

Of course, they vote for all liberals.

BTW Critz ran a campaign to the far right of the most conservative GOP candidate. Hes elected, now he will fu*k over his constituents and be the spend, spend, spend democrat he was in the first place.

GannonFan wrote:I don't know how you call the 12th District a level playing field. Democrats hold a significant registration advantage in that district, the guy who won was a Murtha guy, and Murtha's widow even came out in his support. And it's hard to imagine a place that has gotten more earmarks over the past 3 decades than that district - without Murtha's ability to funnel money into that district half the people who are there now would've moved years ago. They couldn't afford to lose their lifeline by going against the current party in power.

It has a PVI of R+1

UNHWildCats wrote:

GannonFan wrote:I don't know how you call the 12th District a level playing field. Democrats hold a significant registration advantage in that district, the guy who won was a Murtha guy, and Murtha's widow even came out in his support. And it's hard to imagine a place that has gotten more earmarks over the past 3 decades than that district - without Murtha's ability to funnel money into that district half the people who are there now would've moved years ago. They couldn't afford to lose their lifeline by going against the current party in power.

It has a PVI of R+1

Which goes to show you that you can lose sight of the forest if you just rely on numbers like the PVI to tell you the story. Besides, doesn't the PVI just look at Presidential elections?

Anyway, you can slap an R+1 rating on anything you like, but when registered voters break almost 2-1 for one party and when that same one party has held a Congressional seat for 36+ years and when a close confidant of the guy who sat in the seat for 36+ years is the candidate for that same party, if that's not a real steep uphill climb to unseat that party I don't know what is. And that's not even factoring in the political largesse that has been the cornerstone of those 36+ years.

GannonFan wrote:

UNHWildCats wrote: It has a PVI of R+1

Which goes to show you that you can lose sight of the forest if you just rely on numbers like the PVI to tell you the story. Besides, doesn't the PVI just look at Presidential elections?

Anyway, you can slap an R+1 rating on anything you like, but when registered voters break almost 2-1 for one party and when that same one party has held a Congressional seat for 36+ years and when a close confidant of the guy who sat in the seat for 36+ years is the candidate for that same party, if that's not a real steep uphill climb to unseat that party I don't know what is. And that's not even factoring in the political largesse that has been the cornerstone of those 36+ years.

Then why are Congressional Republicans in revolt against the House Reelection committee. Seems like the whole party had that penciled in as a win.

GannonFan wrote:

UNHWildCats wrote: It has a PVI of R+1

Which goes to show you that you can lose sight of the forest if you just rely on numbers like the PVI to tell you the story. Besides, doesn't the PVI just look at Presidential elections?

Anyway, you can slap an R+1 rating on anything you like, but when registered voters break almost 2-1 for one party and when that same one party has held a Congressional seat for 36+ years and when a close confidant of the guy who sat in the seat for 36+ years is the candidate for that same party, if that's not a real steep uphill climb to unseat that party I don't know what is. And that's not even factoring in the political largesse that has been the cornerstone of those 36+ years.

Kentucky has more registered democrats then republicans yet Rand Paul holds a 30 point lead in the latest senate poll

UNHWildCats wrote:

GannonFan wrote:
Which goes to show you that you can lose sight of the forest if you just rely on numbers like the PVI to tell you the story. Besides, doesn't the PVI just look at Presidential elections?

Anyway, you can slap an R+1 rating on anything you like, but when registered voters break almost 2-1 for one party and when that same one party has held a Congressional seat for 36+ years and when a close confidant of the guy who sat in the seat for 36+ years is the candidate for that same party, if that's not a real steep uphill climb to unseat that party I don't know what is. And that's not even factoring in the political largesse that has been the cornerstone of those 36+ years.

Kentucky has more registered democrats then republicans yet Rand Paul holds a 30 point lead in the latest senate poll

Has Kentucky voted the same Democrat into that seat for the past 36+ years? And is a close associate of that said Democrat running against Paul? There's more than one variable at work here.