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In response to the thread Jelly started yesterday. With an election looming, if the poll isn't likely voters, its BS.

"Republican candidates now hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 18, the widest gap between the two parties in several weeks...."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... nal_ballot" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

BDKJMU wrote:With an election looming, if the poll isn't likely voters, its BS.

The election isn't looming. You're right that likely voter models become more and more accurate as the election approaches... but, not 3 or 4 MONTHS before an election. All the major pollsters will begin switching to likely voter models... but... 2 or 3 weeks away from the election.

The further away you are from the election... the least accurate "likely voter" models are.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Erikson,% ... lezien.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Skjellyfetti wrote:

BDKJMU wrote:With an election looming, if the poll isn't likely voters, its BS.

The election isn't looming. You're right that likely voter models become more and more accurate as the election approaches... but, not 3 or 4 MONTHS before an election. All the major pollsters will begin switching to likely voter models... but... 2 or 3 weeks away from the election.

The further away you are from the election... the least accurate "likely voter" models are.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Erikson,% ... lezien.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There still more accurate than polls of just registered voters.

BDKJMU wrote:
There still more accurate than polls of just registered voters.

Not this far out from the election. You want to provide any sort of study or facts to back up your assertion... or just make an unsupported statement followed by an assertive emoticon?

Skjellyfetti wrote:

BDKJMU wrote:
There still more accurate than polls of just registered voters.

Not this far out from the election. You want to provide any sort of study or facts to back up your assertion... or just make an unsupported statement followed by an assertive emoticon?

Yeah, Rasmussen's track record.

Care to make a wager on which poll will be closer come early November- Rasmussen Republican 9 point lead (Republicans gain seats) or the Gallup you cited Democrat 6 point lead (Democrats gain seats)?

BDKJMU wrote:
Care to make a wager on which poll will be closer come early November- Rasmussen Republican 9 point lead (Republicans gain seats) or the Gallup you cited Democrat 6 point lead (Democrats gain seats)?

Not sure how we would bet on that.

Count up all votes cast in all elections for Democrats vs. votes cast in all elections for Republicans?

Skjellyfetti wrote:

BDKJMU wrote:
There still more accurate than polls of just registered voters.

Not this far out from the election. You want to provide any sort of study or facts to back up your assertion... or just make an unsupported statement followed by an assertive emoticon?

Why not? You do it all the time.

BDKJMU wrote:

Skjellyfetti wrote:
Not this far out from the election. You want to provide any sort of study or facts to back up your assertion... or just make an unsupported statement followed by an assertive emoticon?

Yeah, Rasmussen's track record.

Care to make a wager on which poll will be closer come early November- Rasmussen Republican 9 point lead (Republicans gain seats) or the Gallup you cited Democrat 6 point lead (Democrats gain seats)?

Hey, Asshole, you got busted and lost. Take it like a man.

CitadelGrad wrote:

Skjellyfetti wrote:
Not this far out from the election. You want to provide any sort of study or facts to back up your assertion... or just make an unsupported statement followed by an assertive emoticon?

Why not? You do it all the time.

Response of the Year Nomination!

Skjellyfetti wrote: ...You want to provide any sort of study or facts to back up your assertion... or just make an unsupported statement followed by an assertive emoticon?

You are just tooooo much, skelly!

D1B wrote:

BDKJMU wrote:
Yeah, Rasmussen's track record.

Care to make a wager on which poll will be closer come early November- Rasmussen Republican 9 point lead (Republicans gain seats) or the Gallup you cited Democrat 6 point lead (Democrats gain seats)?

Hey, *******, you got busted and lost. Take it like a man.

BS. If you take:

A. A poll of registered voters who have a history of voting in fed mid term elections.

B. A poll of registered voters, some of whom have a history of voting in fed mid term elections, and some who don't.

If you don't think A is more reliable than B, then you're a lot dumber than I thought you were.

And, you put a guy with 15 years experience... including a lot of work for the Republican National Committee, George W. Bush, and World Net Daily over an organization with 50+ years experience putting out unbiased, accurate polling.

Not to mention the problems with likely voter models many months before an election that I linked earlier...