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Sen. Lisa Murkowski 34 percent
Democrat Scott McAdams 29 percent
Joe Miller with 23 percent

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If the drastic change occured do to voters not wanting to vote for Miller that could be good news for Democrat McAdams who unlike Murkowski will appear on the ballot, and voters not wanting to vote for Miller but who identify as Murkowski supporters in this poll could decide its easier to just vote for McAdams.

In any case the power of the Senate could be undetermined into the wee hours of Wednesday morning and beyond.

Outside of Supreme Court nominations, is it going to really matter much either way which party holds nominal control of the Senate after this election? Heck, the Dems weren't able to do much with 59 seats (you could argue they had trouble just with their own members with the fillibuster-proof 60 seats they had for more than a year), so the Senate is going to be split more than enough to either result in flatout gridlock or an environment where deals are cut (ala the '01 to '06 Congresses). Whether it's a Republican majority leader (unlikely), or a Democratic majority leader, the Senate's going to pretty much function the same way.

Charlie the Tuna is 4th.