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I was wondering what the 2010 midterm would look like if the same swing percentages as 1994 played out. Here goes:

1994 (prior to election)

Senate
Democrats - 56
Republicans - 44

House
Democrats - 258
Republicans - 176

1994 (after election)

Senate
Democrats - 48 (-8)
Republicans - 52 (+8)

House
Democrats - 204 (-54)
Republicans - 230 (+54)


2010 (prior to election)

Senate
Democrats - 59 (includes 2 independent in caucus)
Republicans - 41

House
Democrats - 255
Republicans - 178

2010 (after election if the same swing percentages as 1994 play out)

Senate
Democrats - 51 (-8)
Republicans - 49 (+8)

House
Democrats - 201 (-54)
Republicans - 232 (+54)

The same exact number of votes would swing, as the starting numbers are nearly identical. Disclaimer: I may have missed an independent or open seat or two, but I don't think it changes much.

So are the Republicans significantly more fired up than they were in 1994 or will it play out about the same? I guess we'll know tomorrow (or whenever the recounts all play out).

Native's prediction:

Senate: Repubs will do a little bit better than predicted by gaining 8 to 9 seats.

House: Repubs will do a lot better than predicted by gaining at least 65 seats or more.

native wrote:Native's prediction:

Senate: Repubs will do a little bit better than predicted by gaining 8 to 9 seats.

House: Repubs will do a lot better than predicted by gaining at least 65 seats or more.

You're not going all in for 90 in the House like Rush? C'mon. Have some balls.