kalm wrote:UNI88 wrote:
You know I can't stand the neo-cons - they're socially repressive bullies who are fiscally irresponsible but what has Obama really changed from the Bush administration? His words have less saber rattling but his actions haven't really been that different:
- Iraq? Yes
- Patriot Act? No
- Gitmo? No
- Afghanistan? No
- Libya? Took the Bush model to another level by taking military action w/o Congressional approval thus canceling out the positive of getting out of Iraq.
Agreed, but John Bolton and Co. have a hard on for Iran and Paul Ryan's budget calls for a marked increase in defense spending.
IMO, Simpson-Bowles is a much better starting point for budget talks than Ryan's budget. But at least Ryan had the courage to come up with a budget unlike our intrepid President whose job it is do such things.
I'm not sure what the answer is for Iran but I'm pretty sure it's not sticking our heads in the sand and hoping the problem goes away. I didn't used to think it would be that bad if Iran developed nuclear capability but a column by Charles Krauthammer made me reconsider that line of thinking.
What I have decided is that deterring Iran is fundamentally different from deterring the Soviet Union. You could rely on the latter but not on the former.
The reasons are obvious and threefold:
(1) The nature of the regime...It’s one thing to live in a state of mutual assured destruction with Stalin or Brezhnev, leaders of a philosophically materialist, historically grounded, deeply here-and-now regime. It’s quite another to be in a situation of mutual destruction with apocalyptic clerics who believe in the imminent advent of the Mahdi, the supremacy of the afterlife and holy war as the ultimate avenue to achieving it.
...
(2) The nature of the grievance...The Soviet quarrel with America was ideological. Iran’s quarrel with Israel is existential. The Soviets never proclaimed a desire to annihilate the American people. For Iran, the very existence of a Jewish state on Muslim land is a crime, an abomination, a cancer with which no negotiation, no coexistence, no accommodation is possible.
...
(3) The nature of the target...In U.S.-Soviet deterrence, both sides knew that a nuclear war would destroy them mutually. The mullahs have thought the unthinkable to a different conclusion. They know about the Israeli arsenal. They also know, as Rafsanjani said, that in any exchange Israel would be destroyed instantly and forever, whereas the ummah — the Muslim world of 1.8 billion people whose redemption is the ultimate purpose of the Iranian revolution — would survive damaged but almost entirely intact.
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