The Ukraine Crisis

[AZGrizFan]

Selling arms to both sides, cutting high rate and corporate taxes, raising taxes on workers, and through harsh words...

Don't forget stationing hundreds of marines in barracks in a hostile area with little security, then abandoning said area

Agreed. We should just shoot on sight. No more rules of engagement.

[Cap'n Cat]

Don't forget stationing hundreds of marines in barracks in a hostile area with little security, then abandoning said area

Agreed. We should just shoot on sight. No more rules of engagement.

Yes, like ultra-Conks at family planning clinics…….

[Skjellyfetti]

I have no doubt that Obama will take us to war with Russia to distract from the Benghazi and IRS scandals.

[YoUDeeMan]

It will be fun when the next WikiLeaks break deciphers all the Western deals that were made with/promised to the Ukraine elite/business interests in order to ferment the rebellion against Russia's pet President.

[93henfan]

Did somebody say "war with Russia"?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0[/youtube]

[Skjellyfetti]

Did somebody say "war with Russia"?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0[/youtube]

Putin vs. Obama

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SEhIkMhNQU[/youtube]

[SDHornet]

Ukraine in crisis | Russian fleet reportedly issues ultimatum: Surrender or 'face storm'
A day after Ukraine's interim prime minister called Russia's military intervention "a declaration of war," a Russian fleet has reportedly issued an ultimatum to Ukrainian forces in Crimea: Surrender or "face storm."

http://yahoonews.tumblr.com/post/78440354349

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has told Ukrainian forces in Crimea to surrender by 5 a.m. on Tuesday or face a military assault, Interfax news agency quoted a source in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry as saying. The ultimatum, Interfax said, was issued by Alexander Vitko, the fleet's commander.

"If they do not surrender before 5 a.m. tomorrow, a real assault will be started against units and divisions of the armed forces across Crimea," the agency quoted the ministry source as saying.

According to the Kyiv Post, the ultimatum was broadcast from a Russian ship via a loudspeaker offshore, but "the words were muffled."

So by 7pm PST we should see if this escalates to a full on war.

[Skjellyfetti]

Ukraine in crisis | Russian fleet reportedly issues ultimatum: Surrender or 'face storm'
A day after Ukraine's interim prime minister called Russia's military intervention "a declaration of war," a Russian fleet has reportedly issued an ultimatum to Ukrainian forces in Crimea: Surrender or "face storm."

http://yahoonews.tumblr.com/post/78440354349

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has told Ukrainian forces in Crimea to surrender by 5 a.m. on Tuesday or face a military assault, Interfax news agency quoted a source in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry as saying. The ultimatum, Interfax said, was issued by Alexander Vitko, the fleet's commander.

"If they do not surrender before 5 a.m. tomorrow, a real assault will be started against units and divisions of the armed forces across Crimea," the agency quoted the ministry source as saying.

According to the Kyiv Post, the ultimatum was broadcast from a Russian ship via a loudspeaker offshore, but "the words were muffled."

So by 7pm PST we should see if this escalates to a full on war.

Russia is denying that it has made an ultimatum.

Do not think it will escalate tonight.... but, true case of "who fucking knows?"

Any claims that the Russian military has warned Ukraine to surrender in Crimea or face an assault on Tuesday are "total nonsense," a Russian Defense Ministry official says, according to The Voice of Russia.

The unidentified official turned the accusation back at Ukraine, saying that "we are used to daily accusations about using force against our Ukrainian colleagues. ... Efforts to make us clash won't work."

As we said earlier, accounts often vary in situations such as this when news is breaking. We'll keep an eye out for changes in the story.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/201 ... e-of-storm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[93henfan]

I think Putin was ready to roll across Crimea until he saw what happened to Russian stocks and the Ruble today. He's more capitalist than we give him credit for.

[Skjellyfetti]

[dbackjon]

I think Putin was ready to roll across Crimea until he saw what happened to Russian stocks and the Ruble today. He's more capitalist than we give him credit for.

Yup...

The Russian stock market took a beating today and the ruble is way down against the euro and the dollar.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... E820140303" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Moscow stock market fell by 11.3 percent, wiping nearly $60 billion off the value of Russian companies in a day, and the central bank spent $10 billion of its reserves to prop up the rouble as investors took fright at escalating tensions with the West over the former Soviet republic.

Russia isn't in great financial shape, especially after spending as much as they did on the Olympics. This dispute may be better handled monetarily rather than militarily.

[GannonFan]

I think Putin was ready to roll across Crimea until he saw what happened to Russian stocks and the Ruble today. He's more capitalist than we give him credit for.

Yup...

The Russian stock market took a beating today and the ruble is way down against the euro and the dollar.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... E820140303" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Moscow stock market fell by 11.3 percent, wiping nearly $60 billion off the value of Russian companies in a day, and the central bank spent $10 billion of its reserves to prop up the rouble as investors took fright at escalating tensions with the West over the former Soviet republic.

Russia isn't in great financial shape, especially after spending as much as they did on the Olympics. This dispute may be better handled monetarily rather than militarily.

I agree, and that's where our real power lies anyway. We certainly aren't going to lob any missiles into this and we certainly aren't going to put any boots on the ground. But what we can do is really tighten the noose on Russia's neck when it comes to economics. They need Western money badly or it's back to the early 1990's for them and quite possibly Soviet-era bread lines. We kick them out of the G8 (and frankly, this should happen anyway - we let them into the G7 because they were finally acting responsibly on the international front and we wanted to reward them, especially since they still had all those nuclear weapons. The still have the nukes, but Putin has had them off the reservation for years now) is an easy thing to do. If their market and currency don't do them in as it is, we can freeze Russian assets in the West and close off lending options there as well. Sure, they'll cut off natural gas to Europe, especially Germany, but we're coming into the Spring and the natural gas won't be as important as the need for heating diminishes. And besides, Russia needs the money it gets from selling natural gas as much or as more than those who are buying the natural gas need that - they couldn't hold up a sales embargo for long.

Drop them from the G8 now and wait a few days for the other economic nooses to close around Putin. Putin has the military options clearly in his favor, but he can't sustain that with the economic realities that he doesn't have in his favor. He's a small man with a losing hand trying to bluff his way to us believing he has more than he does. We can squeeze him and never even have to think about doing anything militarily.

[YoUDeeMan]

If we keep freezing everyone's assets, there will come a time when China and a good chuck of the world will tell Western banks to f-off.

That would be hilarious. China/Russia, the Middle East, and a whole host of badly behaving countries (also known as energy producing countries) could just tell the West to go freeze themselves to death next winter while they exchange goods and services on their own terms.

Think about it...Western Europe and America have controlled the world through their financial strength for centuries. China has been talking about replacing the dollar as the world's currency. No time like the present to make a move.

[SDHornet]

Per Wiki, in ’07 Russia supplied about 33% of the EU’s crude and almost 40% of its natural gas (no idea on up to date numbers, but probably higher now). I bet Germany is second guessing its decision to phase out its nuke plants right about now…

Good luck with the concept of the EU standing firm with strategy of biting the hand that feeds them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_ ... rgy_sector

I agree with the sanctions, but that hand is only good until next winter. As Gannon implied can Russia economically hold out on the sanctions through the spring and summer? Once those temperatures start to dip then Russia has all the leverage. The EU is fucked, I have a hard time seeing them take a hard line stance on anything.

[GannonFan]

If we keep freezing everyone's assets, there will come a time when China and a good chuck of the world will tell Western banks to f-off.

That would be hilarious. China/Russia, the Middle East, and a whole host of badly behaving countries (also known as energy producing countries) could just tell the West to go freeze themselves to death next winter while they exchange goods and services on their own terms.

Think about it...Western Europe and America have controlled the world through their financial strength for centuries. China has been talking about replacing the dollar as the world's currency. No time like the present to make a move.

Wanting to do it and being able to do it are entirely different things. China doesn't have the means necessary to shift the world's currency or they would've done it already. It takes a lot more than just sheer desire to do something like that.

[Grizalltheway]

Per Wiki, in ’07 Russia supplied about 33% of the EU’s crude and almost 40% of its natural gas (no idea on up to date numbers, but probably higher now). I bet Germany is second guessing its decision to phase out its nuke plants right about now…

Good luck with the concept of the EU standing firm with strategy of biting the hand that feeds them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_ ... rgy_sector

I agree with the sanctions, but that hand is only good until next winter. As Gannon implied can Russia economically hold out on the sanctions through the spring and summer? Once those temperatures start to dip then Russia has all the leverage. The EU is fucked, I have a hard time seeing them take a hard line stance on anything.

It will probably be a few years before it comes to fruition, but the Euros have seen the writing on the wall and are going to start exploiting their significant shale formations.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-2 ... nd-1-.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AZGrizFan]

I have no doubt that Obama will take us to war with Russia to distract from the Benghazi and IRS scandals.

Is it coincidence that this movie was on HBO last night?

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNo0BicRM8k[/youtube]

[dbackjon]

I have no doubt that Obama will take us to war with Russia to distract from the Benghazi and IRS scandals.

Is it coincidence that this movie was on HBO last night?

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNo0BicRM8k[/youtube]

I heard on youtube that Bill asked Putie to do this to distract from Hillary's being deathly sick...

[SDHornet]

Is it coincidence that this movie was on HBO last night?

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNo0BicRM8k[/youtube]

I heard on youtube that Bill asked Putie to do this to distract from Hillary's being deathly sick...

Youtube?
Heard that same thing from Spandos long before it was on Youtube.

[Skjellyfetti]

Per Wiki, in ’07 Russia supplied about 33% of the EU’s crude and almost 40% of its natural gas (no idea on up to date numbers, but probably higher now). I bet Germany is second guessing its decision to phase out its nuke plants right about now…

Good luck with the concept of the EU standing firm with strategy of biting the hand that feeds them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_ ... rgy_sector

I agree with the sanctions, but that hand is only good until next winter. As Gannon implied can Russia economically hold out on the sanctions through the spring and summer? Once those temperatures start to dip then Russia has all the leverage. The EU is fucked, I have a hard time seeing them take a hard line stance on anything.

The converse is, of course, that 60% of Russia's oil and 90% of Russia's gas go to Europe.

And, a whole lot of that relies on pipelines going through Ukraine.

[dbackjon]

I heard on youtube that Bill asked Putie to do this to distract from Hillary's being deathly sick...

Youtube?
Heard that same thing from Spandos long before it was on Youtube.

I thought Youtube was were all the real stories were

[ASUG8]

Russia lost 64 soldiers, 4 fighter jets, 5 airplanes, and 20+ tanks in five days against Georgia. The Georgian military is ranked #64 in the world. The Ukraine's is ranked #21.

Even setting aside the fact that Russia has huge economic problems at home (even worse than here), this would be a costly war for Russia and I think Putin knows it.

Coming off a $50B ho-hum Olympics certainly didn't help.

[houndawg]

Don't forget stationing hundreds of marines in barracks in a hostile area with little security, then abandoning said area

Agreed. We should just shoot on sight. No more rules of engagement.

At least they get ammo now. Not like back in the Reagan administration.

[AZGrizFan]

Agreed. We should just shoot on sight. No more rules of engagement.

At least they get ammo now. Not like back in the Reagan administration.

Yeah. Because there's NO difference in world politics now than back in '81, right?

[SDHornet]

Russia lost 64 soldiers, 4 fighter jets, 5 airplanes, and 20+ tanks in five days against Georgia. The Georgian military is ranked #64 in the world. The Ukraine's is ranked #21.

Even setting aside the fact that Russia has huge economic problems at home (even worse than here), this would be a costly war for Russia and I think Putin knows it.

UNEQUAL OPPONENTS

The Russian military has undergone a major modernization in recent years, receiving large supplies of new weapons and conducting massive exercises. Cash-strapped Ukraine couldn't afford such a buildup and its forces have slowly degraded.

In addition to the funding shortage, the Ukrainian military's readiness was hurt by last year's decision by President Viktor Yanukovych to end conscription and turn the military into a volunteer force. The last wave of conscripts is half way through its one-year term, and their morale could be low. The new Ukrainian government has tried to call up some reservists, but it's unclear whether that will work.

The Russian military has largely recovered from its post-Soviet meltdown, and it recently has run a series of war games unseen since the Cold War times. An exercise involving 150,000 troops, hundreds of tanks and dozens of combat planes has been launched across western Russia just as Russian forces overtook Crimea. President Vladimir Putin attended the maneuvers Monday at a shooting range near St. Petersburg.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/mar ... -standoff/