Greece
Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:01 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... t-ibh78tb7
Greece Imposes Capital Controls as Risk of Euro Exit Climbs
Greece shut its banks and imposed capital controls in a dead-of-night announcement designed to avert the collapse of its financial system as the country edges closer to an exit from the euro.
The measures, which were announced just before 3 a.m. in Athens, limit daily cash withdrawals to 60 euros ($66) and ban payments and transfers abroad, according to the decree. Banks will be closed at least until July 6.
The move followed a weekend of turmoil that started with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s shock announcement late Friday of a July 5 referendum on austerity measures demanded by the country’s creditors, sending people rushing to line up at ATMs and gas stations. The risk of potential contagion if Greece leaves the euro spurred a 1.5 percent fall in the euro on Monday and sparked declines in Asian stocks.
Tsipras struck a defiant tone as he announced the move in a televised statement and on Twitter.
“If you were to put a gun to my head and say ‘give me a probability right now that Greece is in the euro zone in the next few weeks,’ I would tell you it’s 15 percent,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “There’s an 85 percent probability it will be forced to leave the euro zone, not because it wants to do so but because it simply is no longer able to stay.”
The bank controls follow the breakdown of aid talks with international creditors late Friday and a European Central Bank decision to freeze its lifeline to Greek banks. Greece is the second euro-area country, after Cyprus in 2013, to impose capital controls.
El-Erian Sees 85% Chance of Greece Leaving Euro Zone
‘Patience, Composure’
“In the coming days, what’s needed is patience and composure,” Tsipras said in a televised statement. “The bank deposits of the Greek people are fully secure. The same applies to the payment of wages and pensions -- they are also guaranteed.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to President Barack Obama on Sunday, agreeing on the importance of keeping Greece in the euro.
The weekend developments marked an abrupt turn from last week, when markets rallied on hopes a deal between Tsipras’s anti-austerity government and creditors -- the ECB, European Commission and International Monetary Fund -- was at hand.
The optimism vanished after midnight on Friday with Tsipras’s call for the referendum just days before the June 30 expiry of the current bailout and a $1.7 billion payment due to the IMF. Greece also faces repayment of 3.5 billion euros of bonds held by the European Central Bank that mature July 20.
Markets React
The ECB on Sunday froze the ceiling on Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek lenders at just below 89 billion euros, refusing for the first time this year to maintain a buffer as deposits sank.
In Asian trading Monday the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.4 percent at 10 a.m. in Hong Kong, its biggest intraday decline since April 30. The euro fell as low $1.0955, its weakest level since June 1 and biggest fall since late January.
“If they wanted a referendum, which by the way is a good way to go as it will show whether the Greeks want to stay in the euro or not, they could have easily done it a few weeks ago,” Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages $124 billion, said by e-mail.
“By leaving it till after their IMF payment is due and their loan program will lapse, they have just ensured maximum uncertainty and chaos.”
Referendum Confusion
Adding to the confusion is uncertainty over the contents of the referendum as there was no defined aid proposal. The European Commission on Sunday published a 10-point summary of what they said was the state-of-play when talks collapsed.
The list was published “in the interest of transparency and for the information of the Greek people” before the vote and included increases in value-added taxes, cuts in pension spending and primary-surplus targets through 2018.
The bank controls follow the breakdown of aid talks with international creditors late Friday and a European Central Bank decision to freeze its lifeline to Greek banks. Greece is the second euro-area country, after Cyprus in 2013, to impose capital controls. Photographer: Konstantinos Tsakalidis/Bloomberg
In the aftermath of the Brussels talks, Greeks lined up to get access to as much of their money as they could from ATMs. Skai television reported as much as 1 billion euros was withdrawn.
“When you close the banks for several days, you basically trigger an economic depression,” said El-Erian, who is a Bloomberg View columnist. “The government is going to have to issue IOUs and that’s going to become a parallel currency, so this is a tragic situation that is very difficult to control on the ground.”
Blackmail, Injustice
Tsipras moved to bolster confidence and focus blame on Greece’s creditors, who have demanded continued austerity after extending 240 billion euros in bailout commitments since 2010.
“The dignity of the Greek people in the face of blackmail and injustice will send a message of hope and pride to all of Europe,” he said in the televised statement, maintaining the confrontational tone that has characterized his six-month old government.
While Tsipras and his government urged a “no” vote in the referendum, he repeated his request to the European Commission to extend the bailout at least until the ballot.
“A very dark day for Greece,” Nicholas Economides, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said by phone. “The Greek economy, already at standstill, will go to deep freeze.”
Agreed... 