Brexit Thread

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby CID1990 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:15 pm

The biggest benefit of Brexit is that it is a cautionary tale against nations signing away their sovereignty to a disinterested coalition for economic benefits.

It is giving away liberty for security on a macro scale.

Fortunately, I think Brexit is poisoning the well against this for at least another 100 years.


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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby mainejeff » Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:34 am

∞∞∞ wrote:Opinion:
Brexit Britain has reached populism’s inevitable terminus. The government is collapsing as Conservative ministers vote against their own administration with impunity. The equally chaotic opposition cannot oppose. No one can say whether my country will crash out of the European Union provoking an economic and social crisis. Honest commentators don’t make predictions anymore, but stare at the wreckage with slack-jawed disbelief...

...The British crisis is deeper than the United States’ because at its heart lies a failure of truth-telling. We have no equivalent of the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives; no power center or coherent voice that can expose the populist politicians whose combination of cynicism and magical thinking led us to this pass...

...Like populist movements across the West, the Leave campaign refused to make a tough call. Instead, it promised that wrenching change could be achieved without pain. Unlike the nationalists of the 20th century, who fetishized sacrifice, their successors are the authentic representatives of a baby-boomer generation that wants to have it all. Boris Johnson, an upper-class politician who could make President Trump seem a model of integrity, and his fellow supporters of Brexit promised that the task of securing a fresh trade deal with the E.U. would be “one of the easiest in human history.” As it has turned out, the tension of reconciling the populist propaganda of the referendum campaign with protecting the economy has caused a nervous breakdown in politics, and the real negotiations haven’t even begun yet. Meanwhile, British exceptionalists, like their American counterparts, insisted that other countries would bow before us. We were repeatedly assured that the E.U. needed us more than we needed them, a brag that grows more absurd by the day...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... c2a091e713


"Unlike the nationalists of the 20th century, who fetishized sacrifice, their successors are the authentic representatives of a baby-boomer generation that wants to have it all."

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby CID1990 » Mon Mar 25, 2019 11:34 pm

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Winterborn » Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:45 am

CID1990 wrote:Powerful stuff from Hitchens

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... ation.html


The bit I read of the article was good. But there was a distraction that kept me from finishing it......

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Ivytalk » Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:51 pm

CID1990 wrote:Powerful stuff from Hitchens

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... ation.html

Not the resurrected Chris. The other one.
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby GannonFan » Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:36 pm

CID1990 wrote:Powerful stuff from Hitchens

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... ation.html


The sentiment in this article is right on and pretty much the same thing that happened here that got us Trump and the same thing happening to Macron in France. The masses who are left behind (employment, vacations, luxuries, schools, etc) do eventually grow weary of the successful elites thumbing their noses at them (cue the irredeemable basket of deplorables, or, in French, giletes jaunes) and they'll pick chaos over more elitism. It may not make a lot of sense and in the end it doesn't improve their lot in life, but I guess if they thought things weren't going to get better anyway then they might as well stick it to the elite.
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Winterborn » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:06 am

GannonFan wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Powerful stuff from Hitchens

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... ation.html


The sentiment in this article is right on and pretty much the same thing that happened here that got us Trump and the same thing happening to Macron in France. The masses who are left behind (employment, vacations, luxuries, schools, etc) do eventually grow weary of the successful elites thumbing their noses at them (cue the irredeemable basket of deplorables, or, in French, giletes jaunes) and they'll pick chaos over more elitism. It may not make a lot of sense and in the end it doesn't improve their lot in life, but I guess if they thought things weren't going to get better anyway then they might as well stick it to the elite.


Can't say I blame them. Even a mouse when backed into a corner is going to fight to get free. Scorched earth does have a nice poetic ring to it.

And the elite make convenient scapegoats, even though it was the lack of awareness and foresight from the masses that put them there in the first place. Too many choices of this is good in the short term vs. what is best long term. IMHO.

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby ∞∞∞ » Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:54 pm

Parliament passed a bill today which disallows a no-deal Brexit.

Chance of a second referendum is increasing by the day.

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby GannonFan » Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:42 am

∞∞∞ wrote:Parliament passed a bill today which disallows a no-deal Brexit.

Chance of a second referendum is increasing by the day.


That's not technically what it did. It said that the Prime Minister has to ask Europe for another extension. That doesn't mean that Europe has to give them more time. Not aware that the British Parliament can pass a law that makes Europe do anything.

As for the second referendum, there's a reason why Corbyn hasn't been adamant that there should be another referendum - what happens if they have the referendum and the vote is still to leave Europe? There's some misguidance that a second referendum automatically means a Brexit reversal - of course, most folks thought there was no chance the first referendum would've gone for Brexit.
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby SDHornet » Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:57 pm

GannonFan wrote:
∞∞∞ wrote:Parliament passed a bill today which disallows a no-deal Brexit.

Chance of a second referendum is increasing by the day.


That's not technically what it did. It said that the Prime Minister has to ask Europe for another extension. That doesn't mean that Europe has to give them more time. Not aware that the British Parliament can pass a law that makes Europe do anything.

As for the second referendum, there's a reason why Corbyn hasn't been adamant that there should be another referendum - what happens if they have the referendum and the vote is still to leave Europe? There's some misguidance that a second referendum automatically means a Brexit reversal - of course, most folks thought there was no chance the first referendum would've gone for Brexit.

Saw a Sargon of Akkad YT video on Brexit a few days before this vote. Basically the UK Parliament is in a death spiral wrt options for Brexit. The EU already rejected the UKs proposals and now it's either Hard Exit (which one can argue is exactly what the voters wanted) or a delay given by the EU to get a sweeter deal from the UK. I believe April 12th is the hard deadline unless the EU give the UK an extension.

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Ivytalk » Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:20 am

Theresa May reminds me of those ditzy Brit housewives in the BBC comedies. Sort of like Hyacinth Bucket, but a bit higher-class.
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby GannonFan » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:08 am

SDHornet wrote:
GannonFan wrote:
That's not technically what it did. It said that the Prime Minister has to ask Europe for another extension. That doesn't mean that Europe has to give them more time. Not aware that the British Parliament can pass a law that makes Europe do anything.

As for the second referendum, there's a reason why Corbyn hasn't been adamant that there should be another referendum - what happens if they have the referendum and the vote is still to leave Europe? There's some misguidance that a second referendum automatically means a Brexit reversal - of course, most folks thought there was no chance the first referendum would've gone for Brexit.

Saw a Sargon of Akkad YT video on Brexit a few days before this vote. Basically the UK Parliament is in a death spiral wrt options for Brexit. The EU already rejected the UKs proposals and now it's either Hard Exit (which one can argue is exactly what the voters wanted) or a delay given by the EU to get a sweeter deal from the UK. I believe April 12th is the hard deadline unless the EU give the UK an extension.


Sounds like Europe may give them a bigger delay (up to 12 months) to figure things out. No sure thing, and if the EU does nothing then April 12th is the exit whether the UK wants it or not.
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Ivytalk » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:50 am

GannonFan wrote:
SDHornet wrote:Saw a Sargon of Akkad YT video on Brexit a few days before this vote. Basically the UK Parliament is in a death spiral wrt options for Brexit. The EU already rejected the UKs proposals and now it's either Hard Exit (which one can argue is exactly what the voters wanted) or a delay given by the EU to get a sweeter deal from the UK. I believe April 12th is the hard deadline unless the EU give the UK an extension.


Sounds like Europe may give them a bigger delay (up to 12 months) to figure things out. No sure thing, and if the EU does nothing then April 12th is the exit whether the UK wants it or not.

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Ibanez » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:55 am

Ivytalk wrote:
GannonFan wrote:
Sounds like Europe may give them a bigger delay (up to 12 months) to figure things out. No sure thing, and if the EU does nothing then April 12th is the exit whether the UK wants it or not.

Kick the spotted dick down the road...

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby GannonFan » Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:10 am

Ibanez wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:Kick the spotted dick down the road...

Accuracy


Yup
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Ivytalk » Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:44 am

GannonFan wrote:
Ibanez wrote:Accuracy


Yup

Nope. The EU is in Brussels. Hence, soufflé.
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby SDHornet » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:14 pm

I heard the EU gave the UK an extension.

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby GannonFan » Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:09 am

SDHornet wrote:I heard the EU gave the UK an extension.


Yup, not as long as I thought, but still longer than the UK was seeking - deadline is now Halloween of this year. No expectation that the UK will be able to function in Parliament, though, so I suspect they still won't have a deal come October.
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Winterborn » Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:42 am

GannonFan wrote:
SDHornet wrote:I heard the EU gave the UK an extension.


Yup, not as long as I thought, but still longer than the UK was seeking - deadline is now Halloween of this year. No expectation that the UK will be able to function in Parliament, though, so I suspect they still won't have a deal come October.


If they do, I will be shocked. The inability to find a solution is really complicating some of the engine emission work I am involved with on imports/exports.

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Ivytalk » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:01 pm

GannonFan wrote:
SDHornet wrote:I heard the EU gave the UK an extension.


Yup, not as long as I thought, but still longer than the UK was seeking - deadline is now Halloween of this year. No expectation that the UK will be able to function in Parliament, though, so I suspect they still won't have a deal come October.

Tusk and his Brussels bunch are betting that there will be a new referendum by then.
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby SDHornet » Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:50 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
GannonFan wrote:
Yup, not as long as I thought, but still longer than the UK was seeking - deadline is now Halloween of this year. No expectation that the UK will be able to function in Parliament, though, so I suspect they still won't have a deal come October.

Tusk and his Brussels bunch are betting that there will be a new referendum by then.

I would put my money on another UK referendum on the matter. That has been the "Remain" goal the entire time.

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby GannonFan » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:21 pm

SDHornet wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:Tusk and his Brussels bunch are betting that there will be a new referendum by then.

I would put my money on another UK referendum on the matter. That has been the "Remain" goal the entire time.


Like I said, it's a be careful what you wish for thing, and probably why they haven't really pushed full out for a second referendum yet. There's no guarantee that a second referendum will be any different than the first, and if the UK votes again to leave the EU then the Labor party as it's currently constituted pretty much falls apart as "Remain" goes away forever. That's a whole lot to risk and why they aren't more vocal about a second referendum.
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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby Pwns » Fri May 24, 2019 7:51 am

Theresa May is out. Who is going to want the job of PM?
We get the government we deserve. :nod:

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby BDKJMU » Fri May 24, 2019 8:43 am

Boris Johnson. May was an abysmal failure that ignored the will of the people. The people voted for Brexit. They should have been given that.

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Re: Brexit Thread

Postby CID1990 » Fri May 24, 2019 9:18 am

It’s going to be Johnson and a no-deal Brexit now
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