This is why Trump flakes must believe polls are wrong

[JohnStOnge]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/203264/half- ... -fast.aspx

His nomination and election severely damaged the conservative brand. His performance is damaging it even more.

[JohnStOnge]

Got called away before I could elaborate. What I was talking about is the lack of support for his executive orders.

I've written pretty much about how you have to look at the margins of error for the DIFFERENCES between positions. They're bigger than the "margin of error" you see reported for the poll. The "margin" of error reported for the poll is for an individual estimate. Like the margin of error of +/- 4 in this Gallup poll means you're concluding somewhere in the range of 38% to 48% favor Trump's executive order for a temporary ban on ingress from the 7 countries. The margin of error for differences is more like +/- 8. For example the difference between those who favor that order and those who oppose that order could be anywhere from 5 percentage points (favor 46% vs. oppose 51%) up to 21 percentage points (favor 38% vs. oppose 59%). Very fuzzy. But very likely that that the majority oppose what Trump did.

Then there's the overall approval rating. The quantity Disapprove - Approve is estimated to be in the range 48 - 47 (1%) up to 56 - 39 (17%).

Again: very fuzzy. But not good news for the Republican and/or conservative brand. Yes, they have power now. But their credibilty has been and is continuing to be destroyed because of Trump and because they didn't have the integrity and sense to reject him.

[BDKJMU]

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah polls. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah margin of error. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah mentally unstable. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah immature. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah petulant child. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah 2 year old. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah judgement. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah polls. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah margin of error. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah mentally unstable. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah immature. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah petulant child. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah 2 year old. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah judgement. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah polls. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah margin of error. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah mentally unstable. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah immature. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah petulant child. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah 2 year old. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah judgement. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump.

[Gil Dobie]

From the poll on this webesite, only 3 out of 39 people voted for Hillary and 23 didn't vote for Trump or Hillary.

Most of us don't care, others are just poking you to get a reaction.

CS.Com voter pol.

[OL FU]

Got called away before I could elaborate. What I was talking about is the lack of support for his executive orders.

I've written pretty much about how you have to look at the margins of error for the DIFFERENCES between positions. They're bigger than the "margin of error" you see reported for the poll. The "margin" of error reported for the poll is for an individual estimate. Like the margin of error of +/- 4 in this Gallup poll means you're concluding somewhere in the range of 38% to 48% favor Trump's executive order for a temporary ban on ingress from the 7 countries. The margin of error for differences is more like +/- 8. For example the difference between those who favor that order and those who oppose that order could be anywhere from 5 percentage points (favor 46% vs. oppose 51%) up to 21 percentage points (favor 38% vs. oppose 59%). Very fuzzy. But very likely that that the majority oppose what Trump did.

Then there's the overall approval rating. The quantity Disapprove - Approve is estimated to be in the range 48 - 47 (1%) up to 56 - 39 (17%).

Again: very fuzzy. But not good news for the Republican and/or conservative brand. Yes, they have power now. But their credibilty has been and is continuing to be destroyed because of Trump and because they didn't have the integrity and sense to reject him.

This is what you should have said

"I've written too much about...."

[kalm]

I don't think the Republicans have too much to worry about. If Trump's favorability goes up, they get to ride his coattails but if not, they get to appear non-partisan and sensible for rejecting him.

[ASUG8]

She lost John. It's over.

[HI54UNI]

[89Hen]

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah polls. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah margin of error. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah mentally unstable. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah immature. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah petulant child. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah 2 year old. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah judgement. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah polls. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah margin of error. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah mentally unstable. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah immature. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah petulant child. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah 2 year old. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah judgement. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah polls. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah margin of error. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah mentally unstable. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah immature. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah petulant child. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah 2 year old. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah judgement. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump.

Agreed.

[Rob Iola]

Ooooo - the Spanos treatment!!! Me likey!!!

[Ivytalk]

Aaannndd... / thread!

[CID1990]

I don't think the Republicans have too much to worry about. If Trump's favorability goes up, they get to ride his coattails but if not, they get to appear non-partisan and sensible for rejecting him.

Exactly. This may be the first President in a long time where his own party can reject parts of his agenda without too much political fallout.

All in all my gauge for Trump success is this:

1. Appoint conservatives to SCOTUS

2. Don't do anything else

[houndawg]

Ooooo - the Spanos treatment!!! Me likey!!!

Nah, he's showing John some bimodal distribution..

[houndawg]

....Trumpflakes..lol..John makes a funny...

[JohnStOnge]

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah polls. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah margin of error. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah mentally unstable. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah immature. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah petulant child. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah 2 year old. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah judgement. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah polls. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah margin of error. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah mentally unstable. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah immature. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah petulant child. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah 2 year old. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah judgement. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah polls. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah margin of error. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah mentally unstable. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah immature. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah petulant child. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah 2 year old. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah judgement. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah Trump.

Yep. That pretty much describes the thought process of a Trump supporter confronted with information contradicting their zombie-like support for the guy.

[JohnStOnge]

When I started this thread I knew this kind of thing was coming. Trump, confronted with overwhelming evidence that most people don't support him or what he's doing does a Tweet:

Any negative polls are fake news, just like the CNN, ABC, NBC polls in the election.

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/sta ... 0800539648

Just one problem: The polls showing most Americans don't support either Trump or what he's been doing are national polls and the last CNN, ABC, and NBC national polls had it like this:

CNN: Trump by 2 through Clinton by 12
ABC: Trump by 1 through Clinton by 9
NBC: Trump by 1.4 through Clinton by 9.4

Actual Result: Clinton by 2.1. With in the range of estimate outcomes estimated by all three of the polls. And BTW, if you do something like I did in another thread and look at ALL of the polls used for the RCP final average to generate a "margin of error" you get that they were saying the result would be in the range Clinton by 1.7 through Clinton by 4.7. So the body of national polling WAS saying that Clinton would win the popular vote. And she did.

But, see, this is Trump. He's trying to deceive. He's telling his zombies that they should think the national polls on public opinion with respect to him and his policies are false because the national polls on the general election were false. Only the national polls on the general election weren't false.

[YoUDeeMan]

I predict the sun will blow up in about 2.5 and 14,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.

And JSO will say that my margin of error was within tolerance levels.

[JohnStOnge]

I predict the sun will blow up in about 2.5 and 14,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.

And JSO will say that my margin of error was within tolerance levels.

Well I guess you would probably be correct if that's what you establish. But seriously. All this Trump stuff aside, it would be to your benefit to think in those terms when it comes to sampling surveys because that is the way in which they are properly interpreted.

Let's just take the CNN poll as an example. The last CNN poll listed at the RealClearPolitics site had the "point estimates" as Clinton 49, Trump 44 with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error. That's telling you the estimate for Clinton was 45.5 through 52.5 and that for Trump was 40.5 through 47.5. The actual result was Clinton 48.2, Trump 46.1. Both final tallies within the margins of error for the candidates. And even if you weren't looking at it that way (as you should) 49 to 44 isn't that far off of 48.2 to 46.1.

The latest CNN poll on Trump's approval is 44% approving of him and 53% disapproving of him. He's asking you to believe that poll is wrong on the basic question of whether or not most people approve of him because CNN had the popular vote at 49 to 44 and it turned out to be 48 to 46.

I't more of the Donald Trump "don't believe your lying eyes" crap. Most people in the United States do not approve of him. Most people in the United States don't approve of what he's doing. Most people in the United States did not and do not want him to be President.

[JohnStOnge]

I don't think the Republicans have too much to worry about. If Trump's favorability goes up, they get to ride his coattails but if not, they get to appear non-partisan and sensible for rejecting him.

Too late for that. The die is cast. The time to reject him was prior to the end of the candidate nomination process. The Republican Party is the Party that nominated Donald Trump. The Republican Party is the Party that rallied behind him, casting all sense of principle to the wind, once he was nominated. The Republican Party cannot escape those things.

[kalm]

I don't think the Republicans have too much to worry about. If Trump's favorability goes up, they get to ride his coattails but if not, they get to appear non-partisan and sensible for rejecting him.

Too late for that. The die is cast. The time to reject him was prior to the end of the candidate nomination process. The Republican Party is the Party that nominated Donald Trump. The Republican Party is the Party that rallied behind him, casting all sense of principle to the wind, once he was nominated. The Republican Party cannot escape those things.

You're first mistake was in expecting Republicans to be principled. There's even something to be admired that they were willing to break with principle in this regard.

A bunch of notable Republicans were either luke warm or publicly didn't support him. They can still avoid being held responsible for his gaffs.

[Rob Iola]

I don't think the Republicans have too much to worry about. If Trump's favorability goes up, they get to ride his coattails but if not, they get to appear non-partisan and sensible for rejecting him.

Too late for that. The die is cast. The time to reject him was prior to the end of the candidate nomination process. The Republican Party is the Party that nominated Donald Trump. The Republican Party is the Party that rallied behind him, casting all sense of principle to the wind, once he was nominated. The Republican Party cannot escape those things.

Gorsuch instead of Garland. For the next 40 years.

[YoUDeeMan]

Too late for that. The die is cast. The time to reject him was prior to the end of the candidate nomination process. The Republican Party is the Party that nominated Donald Trump. The Republican Party is the Party that rallied behind him, casting all sense of principle to the wind, once he was nominated. The Republican Party cannot escape those things.

Gorsuch instead of Garland. For the next 40 years.

WIN!

[BDKJMU]

Gorsuch instead of Garland. For the next 40 years.

WIN!

Yep. Even though more likely 30 years +/-, still a win..

[GannonFan]

I don't think the Republicans have too much to worry about. If Trump's favorability goes up, they get to ride his coattails but if not, they get to appear non-partisan and sensible for rejecting him.

Too late for that. The die is cast. The time to reject him was prior to the end of the candidate nomination process. The Republican Party is the Party that nominated Donald Trump. The Republican Party is the Party that rallied behind him, casting all sense of principle to the wind, once he was nominated. The Republican Party cannot escape those things.

What do they have to escape? A GOP'er has to be pretty happy today. They've avoided the Scalia vacancy going well to the left from where it was when Gorsuch replace Garland, if Kennedy retires this term they'll get to replace him with a likely more right judge, and of course if one of the older left members of the Court leaves that's even more space to fill with right-leaning judges. The Court was poised to take a dramatic shift to the left and the Trump election has reversed that entirely. And of top of that, in the Trump election the GOP held on to majorities in both chambers of the federal legislature, and almost regardless of what Trump does in the next two years it's very likely the GOP picks up even more seats in the Senate in the midterm elections just based on where the seats are up for re-election. Come 2020, sure, they'll need to find a candidate as it's hard to see Trump deciding to run again at his age, but for the next 4 years the GOP controls the government. I can't imagine they're too upset about that.

[Ivytalk]

I don't think the Republicans have too much to worry about. If Trump's favorability goes up, they get to ride his coattails but if not, they get to appear non-partisan and sensible for rejecting him.

Too late for that. The die is cast. The time to reject him was prior to the end of the candidate nomination process. The Republican Party is the Party that nominated Donald Trump. The Republican Party is the Party that rallied behind him, casting all sense of principle to the wind, once he was nominated. The Republican Party cannot escape those things.

By the way, has your old lady changed her registration yet?