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Accurate from a number of perspectives very close to me...and hopefully accurate on the others that are not to close...

For generations, we’ve seen the political landscape in this country teeter back and forth between the Left and the Right. Usually about every 8 years or so, whichever political party is dominating Congress, the Executive Branch, and the state legislatures, is kicked out by voters and replaced with the other political party.

However, there’s something very different going on this time around. Donald Trump’s ascent to the oval office represents a major shift in our society and culture, and I’m not talking about the intermittent shuffle of politicians that we see every few years. Instead, the pendulum is about to swing very hard to the right.

I think that the political landscape in America is going to be drifting towards conservatism for the next 20-40 years. Though it may not be identical to what we view as conservative today, and it certainly won’t be the phony neoconservatism that dominated the past, it will be right-wing nonetheless

http://www.anonews.co/america-conservative-country/

Col Hogan wrote:Accurate from a number of perspectives very close to me...and hopefully accurate on the others that are not to close...

For generations, we’ve seen the political landscape in this country teeter back and forth between the Left and the Right. Usually about every 8 years or so, whichever political party is dominating Congress, the Executive Branch, and the state legislatures, is kicked out by voters and replaced with the other political party.

However, there’s something very different going on this time around. Donald Trump’s ascent to the oval office represents a major shift in our society and culture, and I’m not talking about the intermittent shuffle of politicians that we see every few years. Instead, the pendulum is about to swing very hard to the right.

I think that the political landscape in America is going to be drifting towards conservatism for the next 20-40 years. Though it may not be identical to what we view as conservative today, and it certainly won’t be the phony neoconservatism that dominated the past, it will be right-wing nonetheless

http://www.anonews.co/america-conservative-country/

it may be a different take but it will be just as phony as the veneer of conservatism on the core racism of the so-called "family values" crowd.

alea jacta est

I think the author is kidding themselves. Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 Presidential elections. Here's another interesting thing that is going on:

The four biggest electoral college prizes are California, Texas, New York, and Florida. In recent years the Democrats have been able to count on California and New York. The Republicans have been able to count on Texas. Florida has flipped back and forth.

This past year, the results went like this:

California: Democrat by 37 percentage points
New York: Democrat by 23
Texas: Republican by 9
Florida: Republican by 1

Combine that with a set of numbers on demographics. I'm comparing 2008 to 2016. State by state demographics aren't readily available to me for 2012. But everybody knows the trends. Here are numbers for Texas and Florida:



As I've noted many times: The handwriting is on the wall. Texas and Florida are both headed for the "Reliably blue" column.

Texas will become blue, probably in my lifetime. Anecdotal, but it seems like half of my (liberal) high school and college friends have moved there in the last 10 years. And have stayed liberal.

And I don't know why people think Gen Z is conservative (all based on a study funded by a conservative think-tank). They may be more so by millennial standards, but that's a pretty far-left standard.

Ultimately, the conservative goal-post will continue shifting left because developed nations naturally need to progress forward to stay relevant; change is always needed.

Democrats control 7 states, GOP 35, 8 split


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LAWL predictable JSO trigger


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As a general rule we've expanded the size of local and federal government nonstop since the civil war...
Maybe we're hitting critical mass and people are starting to catch on

?

Who knows

Chizzang wrote:As a general rule we've expanded the size of local and federal government nonstop since the civil war...
Maybe we're hitting critical mass and people are starting to catch on

?

Who knows

I was going to say the premise might depend on the definition of "conservative"

On the narrow issue of government size and ineffectiveness, I definitely think we will see some consensus

I read an article the other day, in what I think was a right leaning paper, which made mention of this Congress being in danger of not passing any landmark legislation (and painting it as a negative)

If conservatives see that as a negative then I think we need to redefine the term




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CID1990 wrote:

Chizzang wrote:As a general rule we've expanded the size of local and federal government nonstop since the civil war...
Maybe we're hitting critical mass and people are starting to catch on

?

Who knows

I was going to say the premise might depend on the definition of "conservative"

On the narrow issue of government size and ineffectiveness, I definitely think we will see some consensus

I read an article the other day, in what I think was a right leaning paper, which made mention of this Congress being in danger of not passing any landmark legislation (and painting it as a negative)

If conservatives see that as a negative then I think we need to redefine the term




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∞∞∞ wrote:Texas will become blue, probably in my lifetime. Anecdotal, but it seems like half of my (liberal) high school and college friends have moved there in the last 10 years. And have stayed liberal.

And I don't know why people think Gen Z is conservative (all based on a study funded by a conservative think-tank). They may be more so by millennial standards, but that's a pretty far-left standard.

Ultimately, the conservative goal-post will continue shifting left because developed nations naturally need to progress forward to stay relevant; change is always needed.

JohnStOnge wrote:I think the author is kidding themselves. Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 Presidential elections. Here's another interesting thing that is going on:

The four biggest electoral college prizes are California, Texas, New York, and Florida. In recent years the Democrats have been able to count on California and New York. The Republicans have been able to count on Texas. Florida has flipped back and forth.

This past year, the results went like this:

California: Democrat by 37 percentage points
New York: Democrat by 23
Texas: Republican by 9
Florida: Republican by 1

Combine that with a set of numbers on demographics. I'm comparing 2008 to 2016. State by state demographics aren't readily available to me for 2012. But everybody knows the trends. Here are numbers for Texas and Florida:



As I've noted many times: The handwriting is on the wall. Texas and Florida are both headed for the "Reliably blue" column.

Maybe Trump won because he is actually more liberal than Hillary?

∞∞∞ wrote:Texas will become blue, probably in my lifetime. Anecdotal, but it seems like half of my (liberal) high school and college friends have moved there in the last 10 years. And have stayed liberal.

And I don't know why people think Gen Z is conservative (all based on a study funded by a conservative think-tank). They may be more so by millennial standards, but that's a pretty far-left standard.

Ultimately, the conservative goal-post will continue shifting left because developed nations naturally need to progress forward to stay relevant; change is always needed.

Do you have any idea of how many back country Texans don’t vote?

Do you know how conservative Mexican Catholics really are?

A blue Texas within the next 75 years is a tempting, but ultimately crazy idea

CID1990 wrote:

∞∞∞ wrote:Texas will become blue, probably in my lifetime. Anecdotal, but it seems like half of my (liberal) high school and college friends have moved there in the last 10 years. And have stayed liberal.

And I don't know why people think Gen Z is conservative (all based on a study funded by a conservative think-tank). They may be more so by millennial standards, but that's a pretty far-left standard.

Ultimately, the conservative goal-post will continue shifting left because developed nations naturally need to progress forward to stay relevant; change is always needed.

Do you have any idea of how many back country Texans don’t vote?

Do you know how conservative Mexican Catholics really are?

A blue Texas within the next 75 years is a tempting, but ultimately crazy idea

The study that JSO loves to quote (the one about the browning of America and how all the Democrats have to do is sit back and let the demographics work for them) was already debunked by none other than the original author of that study. Yes, America will continue to brown, if that's the right word, and the white population will continue to shrink as a percentage, but there's real evidence that very few of the current minority blocks will vote as a block going forward (and right now, only African Americans really vote as a block relative to one party over the other). That's what the author of that study said he missed when he revised his study and said that a default Democratic majority, forever, based on demographics was not actually going to happen.

On this, I agree with JSO. I don't know how you can possibly say Donald Trump's election is any kind of collective affirmation on conservatism.

The Republicans will probably hold on to congress in the mid-terms next year, but the only way that a Mit Romney or Jeb Rush wins is if the donks sabotage themselves pushing too much on guns and identity politics.

I think the country ripe for some left-center, nativist candidate. That person would mop the floor with any of the big names in either party if they ran a decent campaign.

Pwns wrote:On this, I agree with JSO. I don't know how you can possibly say Donald Trump's election is any kind of collective affirmation on conservatism.

The Republicans will probably hold on to congress in the mid-terms next year, but the only way that a Mit Romney or Jeb Rush wins is if the donks sabotage themselves pushing too much on guns and identity politics.

I think the country ripe for some left-center, nativist candidate. That person would mop the floor with any of the big names in either party if they ran a decent campaign.

Donald Trump’s election has nothing to do with it

The shift hasn’t happened yet, but it is coming

The Democratic Party has lost Team Brown... they just don’t know it yet- and when I say team brown, I mean ALL nonwhites but NOT African Americans.

Cue Jelly with the numbers on how many Hispanics voted for Hillary

Pwns wrote:On this, I agree with JSO. I don't know how you can possibly say Donald Trump's election is any kind of collective affirmation on conservatism.

The Republicans will probably hold on to congress in the mid-terms next year, but the only way that a Mit Romney or Jeb Rush wins is if the donks sabotage themselves pushing too much on guns and identity politics.

I think the country ripe for some left-center, nativist candidate. That person would mop the floor with any of the big names in either party if they ran a decent campaign.

Maybe, but there's also a chance that Trump will scare voters back to confort of the safe and sane establishment.

kalm wrote:

Pwns wrote:On this, I agree with JSO. I don't know how you can possibly say Donald Trump's election is any kind of collective affirmation on conservatism.

The Republicans will probably hold on to congress in the mid-terms next year, but the only way that a Mit Romney or Jeb Rush wins is if the donks sabotage themselves pushing too much on guns and identity politics.

I think the country ripe for some left-center, nativist candidate. That person would mop the floor with any of the big names in either party if they ran a decent campaign.

Maybe, but there's also a chance that Trump will scare voters back to confort of the safe and sane establishment.

I don't think Trump's election had any great impact on conservatism - people picked him because they hated Hillary and they hated the status quo of politics in Washington. Presidential elections are much more about the two people running and their personalities than it does with any overarching political ideology. In the end, there are two political parties, and people will generally gravitate to either one. The Democrats will back in the White House no later than say 8 years. The big question is what they do about the massive amount of losses they have taken in everything that isn't the Presidency.

CID1990 wrote:

Chizzang wrote:As a general rule we've expanded the size of local and federal government nonstop since the civil war...
Maybe we're hitting critical mass and people are starting to catch on

?

Who knows

I was going to say the premise might depend on the definition of "conservative"

On the narrow issue of government size and ineffectiveness, I definitely think we will see some consensus

I read an article the other day, in what I think was a right leaning paper, which made mention of this Congress being in danger of not passing any landmark legislation (and painting it as a negative)

If conservatives see that as a negative then I think we need to redefine the term

I see more people believing that government is bloated, corrupt and dysfunctional
That used to be a lunatic fringe thing, now it seems like damn near everybody feels that way

The problem is everybody presently "in government" points across the isle
So I don't see anything getting any better as far as "we're all starting to come together"

Not happening...
We'll quite literally have to dismantle it completely
with Senators swinging from lamp posts and Federal buildings burning
before anything changes - this road is paved

I’ll make sure my Mexican daughter-in-law knows she’s suppose to be a dem...she’s so conservative she makes me look liberal...

I’ll also tell my next door neighbor, and Tex-Mex native that he and his family need to stop being so conservative so Texas can go blue...

Team Brown is learning who supports whom...which side talks, but doesn’t walk...

Meanwhile, as this youngest generation moves more pro-life and pro-2A, we’ll see what happens...

And how is the Democratic Party planning to make up all the local, State and federal seats it has lost since 2010???

Okay, I give up, someone explain to me how Republicans are going to win back hispanics. As I see it immigration is going to continue to be an issue and will make it hard to bring together the coalition the GOP has used in the past to win games.

If you're economically and socially conservative and pro-immigration you could get decent hispanic support and win...but those guys are not going to get nominated as they stand now.

Col Hogan wrote:I’ll make sure my Mexican daughter-in-law knows she’s suppose to be a dem...she’s so conservative she makes me look liberal...

I’ll also tell my next door neighbor, and Tex-Mex native that he and his family need to stop being so conservative so Texas can go blue...

Team Brown is learning who supports whom...which side talks, but doesn’t walk...

Meanwhile, as this youngest generation moves more pro-life and pro-2A, we’ll see what happens...

And how is the Democratic Party planning to make up all the local, State and federal seats it has lost since 2010???

Because all trip's friends in his bubble told him so.......

Chizzang wrote:

CID1990 wrote:
I was going to say the premise might depend on the definition of "conservative"

On the narrow issue of government size and ineffectiveness, I definitely think we will see some consensus

I read an article the other day, in what I think was a right leaning paper, which made mention of this Congress being in danger of not passing any landmark legislation (and painting it as a negative)

If conservatives see that as a negative then I think we need to redefine the term

I see more people believing that government is bloated, corrupt and dysfunctional
That used to be a lunatic fringe thing, now it seems like damn near everybody feels that way

The problem is everybody presently "in government" points across the isle
So I don't see anything getting any better as far as "we're all starting to come together"

Not happening...
We'll quite literally have to dismantle it completely
with Senators swinging from lamp posts and Federal buildings burning
before anything changes - this road is paved

I know where to find some sturdy lamp posts.

Pwns wrote:Okay, I give up, someone explain to me how Republicans are going to win back hispanics. As I see it immigration is going to continue to be an issue and will make it hard to bring together the coalition the GOP has used in the past to win games.

If you're economically and socially conservative and pro-immigration you could get decent hispanic support and win...but those guys are not going to get nominated as they stand now.

You can be that and pro immigration and anti illegal immigration.

Pwns wrote:Okay, I give up, someone explain to me how Republicans are going to win back hispanics. As I see it immigration is going to continue to be an issue and will make it hard to bring together the coalition the GOP has used in the past to win games.

If you're economically and socially conservative and pro-immigration you could get decent hispanic support and win...but those guys are not going to get nominated as they stand now.

The Mexicans I know and associate with are opposed to an easy path to citizenship...their families had to work and do it the right way...they don’t want it any other way...

I’m second generation of an immigrant family too...my grandparents had to be sponsored and/or have a job to enter...why make it easier???

Chizzang wrote:

CID1990 wrote:
I was going to say the premise might depend on the definition of "conservative"

On the narrow issue of government size and ineffectiveness, I definitely think we will see some consensus

I read an article the other day, in what I think was a right leaning paper, which made mention of this Congress being in danger of not passing any landmark legislation (and painting it as a negative)

If conservatives see that as a negative then I think we need to redefine the term

I see more people believing that government is bloated, corrupt and dysfunctional
That used to be a lunatic fringe thing, now it seems like damn near everybody feels that way

The problem is everybody presently "in government" points across the isle
So I don't see anything getting any better as far as "we're all starting to come together"

Not happening...
We'll quite literally have to dismantle it completely
with Senators swinging from lamp posts and Federal buildings burning
before anything changes - this road is paved

Big Government enjoys about the same following as crony capitalism. Yet here we are!

But we're only allowed two choices because money is speech and corporations are people. Hurrah!