Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Political discussions
User avatar
Winterborn
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 8812
Joined: Wed May 25, 2016 2:33 pm
I am a fan of: Beer and Diesel Pickups
Location: Wherever I hang my hat

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by Winterborn »

JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:33 pm
Winterborn wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:28 pm

No shit Sherlock.

The Biden administration is exactly like the Trump administration in this regard. They can't help themselves but screw up and stick their collective feet in their mouths.
I don't think the two Administrations are similar at all with respect to communicating. Trump was constantly lying and exaggerating. Doing stuff like saying it was the greatest economy ever when it wasn't and saying he built it when he didn't. He'd do things like brag about how many jobs the economy created under his watch when the rate of job growth actually slowed as compared to Obama's second term. Trump was very good at convincing the gullible that he was just the greatest thing ever when he wasn't. Biden doesn't even really try.
Probably cause he knows that it is a lost cause or can't remember his script. At least Trump put effort into his lies. :coffee:
“The best of all things is to learn. Money can be lost or stolen, health and strength may fail, but what you have committed to your mind is yours forever.” – Louis L’Amour

“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf

"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

UNI88 wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:25 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:13 pm

Fine if you think that. But the numbers do not support your belief at this point. You could end up being right. But if you do it'd be because you made a lucky guess. There are no trends towards things getting better for Republicans among Hispanics, Blacks, or Asians.
You're too focused on macro-data. Data collection in the social sciences is not like data collection in the physical sciences. The data is not as solid as you seem to want to believe it is. Flaws and biases in how the data is collected take time to discover and fix. It is completely rational to believe that the macro-data is lagging and that the examples of Republicans doing well with Latins on a local level are indicators of a potential shift.
I did a "to do" on what I'm about to write when I first saw that post. I do look at State things too. Like for instance I noted that the Republican did relatively well among Hispanics in Florida in 2020. The exit polling estimate is that the Republican only lost among Hispanics in Florida by 53% to 46%. And that was an improvement over 2016, when the Republican lost by 62% to 35% among Hispanics in Florida.

But the Republican doing well among Hispanics in Florida is not unprecedented. See the 2004 Florida exit polling results at https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages ... lls.0.html. That year, the Republican WON among Hispanics by a solid margin. The exit poll estimate is that the Republican won among Hispanics by 56% to 44%. You can also see an indication of how things changed from 2000. The indication is that the Republican got 7 percentage points more among Hispanics than he did in 2000. That means he got 49% in 2000. So that is two elections during which the Republican did better in Florida than the Republican did in 2020.

It's hard to find State by State exit poll results from the past. But we know that 2020 was no better than #3 on the list in terms of how well the Republican did in Florida among Hispanics during a Presidential race. I suspect Reagan did better as well both times but I can't find data on that.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
UNI88
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 19955
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
I am a fan of: UNI
Location: the foggy, woggy banks Of the Limpopo River

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by UNI88 »

JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:44 pm
UNI88 wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:25 pm
You're too focused on macro-data. Data collection in the social sciences is not like data collection in the physical sciences. The data is not as solid as you seem to want to believe it is. Flaws and biases in how the data is collected take time to discover and fix. It is completely rational to believe that the macro-data is lagging and that the examples of Republicans doing well with Latins on a local level are indicators of a potential shift.
I did a "to do" on what I'm about to write when I first saw that post. I do look at State things too. Like for instance I noted that the Republican did relatively well among Hispanics in Florida in 2020. The exit polling estimate is that the Republican only lost among Hispanics in Florida by 53% to 46%. And that was an improvement over 2016, when the Republican lost by 62% to 35% among Hispanics in Florida.

But the Republican doing well among Hispanics in Florida is not unprecedented. See the 2004 Florida exit polling results at https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages ... lls.0.html. That year, the Republican WON among Hispanics by a solid margin. The exit poll estimate is that the Republican won among Hispanics by 56% to 44%. You can also see an indication of how things changed from 2000. The indication is that the Republican got 7 percentage points more among Hispanics than he did in 2000. That means he got 49% in 2000. So that is two elections during which the Republican did better in Florida than the Republican did in 2020.

It's hard to find State by State exit poll results from the past. But we know that 2020 was no better than #3 on the list in terms of how well the Republican did in Florida among Hispanics during a Presidential race. I suspect Reagan did better as well both times but I can't find data on that.
John, the data that is collected is imperfect. You're dealing with a social science where a fraction of data is typically collected and then projections are made.

Republicans doing well among Hispanics in Florida is partially due to a large Cuban population. If you'd lift your head up from the macro-data you might be able to understand the context which is important when evaluating social science data.

Florida is not Texas. The context is different. Republicans doing well in a majority Hispanic district that went to Biden just one year ago is a big deal and a potential indicator.
Being wrong about a topic is called post partisanism - kalm
houndawg
Level5
Level5
Posts: 23236
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:14 pm
I am a fan of: SIU
A.K.A.: houndawg
Location: Egypt

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by houndawg »

UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:23 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:17 pm

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

You haven’t a clue.
Houndy is just applying CRT to politics. To him, racism is the foundation of Republican politics.
CRT?

What's that? :?

But racism is a great way to keep the little people at each other :thumb:
Last edited by houndawg on Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

Winterborn wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:39 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:33 pm

I don't think the two Administrations are similar at all with respect to communicating. Trump was constantly lying and exaggerating. Doing stuff like saying it was the greatest economy ever when it wasn't and saying he built it when he didn't. He'd do things like brag about how many jobs the economy created under his watch when the rate of job growth actually slowed as compared to Obama's second term. Trump was very good at convincing the gullible that he was just the greatest thing ever when he wasn't. Biden doesn't even really try.
Probably cause he knows that it is a lost cause or can't remember his script. At least Trump put effort into his lies. :coffee:
There are things Biden could say. The economy is actually doing quite well right now. There are caveats, but we are probably going to end the year with more annual GDP growth, more job creation, and a larger decline in unemployment than we had during any year during which Trump was President during most of it (I say that because Trump was President until January 21).

Trump was great at exaggerating what was going on with the economy and claiming credit for things he had nothing to do with. Biden is not.

BTW, I am not saying Biden is the reason why there is probably going to be more annual GDP growth, more job growth, and a bigger decline in unemployment rate for 2021 than there was during any year 2017 through 2020. But politicians usually fall all over themselves taking credit for things like that. Biden's doing it a little bit. But Trump was a person that would claim credit if there was a rainfall after a drought. If anything good happened, Trump was all over it claiming credit for it. If anything bad happened, it was ALWAYS somebody else's fault. For better or for worse, Biden isn't like that.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

UNI88 wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:52 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:44 pm

I did a "to do" on what I'm about to write when I first saw that post. I do look at State things too. Like for instance I noted that the Republican did relatively well among Hispanics in Florida in 2020. The exit polling estimate is that the Republican only lost among Hispanics in Florida by 53% to 46%. And that was an improvement over 2016, when the Republican lost by 62% to 35% among Hispanics in Florida.

But the Republican doing well among Hispanics in Florida is not unprecedented. See the 2004 Florida exit polling results at https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages ... lls.0.html. That year, the Republican WON among Hispanics by a solid margin. The exit poll estimate is that the Republican won among Hispanics by 56% to 44%. You can also see an indication of how things changed from 2000. The indication is that the Republican got 7 percentage points more among Hispanics than he did in 2000. That means he got 49% in 2000. So that is two elections during which the Republican did better in Florida than the Republican did in 2020.

It's hard to find State by State exit poll results from the past. But we know that 2020 was no better than #3 on the list in terms of how well the Republican did in Florida among Hispanics during a Presidential race. I suspect Reagan did better as well both times but I can't find data on that.
John, the data that is collected is imperfect. You're dealing with a social science where a fraction of data is typically collected and then projections are made.

Republicans doing well among Hispanics in Florida is partially due to a large Cuban population. If you'd lift your head up from the macro-data you might be able to understand the context which is important when evaluating social science data.

Florida is not Texas. The context is different. Republicans doing well in a majority Hispanic district that went to Biden just one year ago is a big deal and a potential indicator.
I am fully aware of the fact that there is a large Cuban population in Florida and that that is a factor. A one year to the next change is not a trend. For example: After going for the Republican by 56% to 44% in 2004, Hispanics in Florida went for the Democrat by 57% to 42% in 2008.

There are two things about that I think are notable: One is that there is a lot of year to year variation. The other is that the Republican got 42% of the Hispanic vote in Florida in 2008 even though the Republican was running against Obama.

The State has a history such that the Republican doing relatively well among Hispanics is not unusual, and I suspect the fact that a large percentage of Hispanics in Florida are of Cuban ancestry is a factor in that. Also Central American ancestries. And, yes, I am aware of the fact that Republicans addressed that, in part, by doing the "communist" boogeyman thing.

The point is: It's not historically remarkable that the Republican did relatively well among the Hispanics in Florida.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
UNI88
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 19955
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
I am a fan of: UNI
Location: the foggy, woggy banks Of the Limpopo River

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by UNI88 »

houndawg wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:58 pm
UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:23 pm
Houndy is just applying CRT to politics. To him, racism is the foundation of Republican politics.
CRT?

What's that? :?

But racism is a great way to keep the little people at each other :thumb:
Both parties are great at exploiting race to "keep the little people at each other."
Being wrong about a topic is called post partisanism - kalm
houndawg
Level5
Level5
Posts: 23236
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:14 pm
I am a fan of: SIU
A.K.A.: houndawg
Location: Egypt

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by houndawg »

UNI88 wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:10 pm
houndawg wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:58 pm

CRT?

What's that? :?

But racism is a great way to keep the little people at each other :thumb:
Both parties are great at exploiting race to "keep the little people at each other."
Both parties are run by the hyper-wealthy and always have been of course. Citizens United made it officially GAME OVER for you and me about 10 years ago.
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
User avatar
DSUrocks07
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 5236
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:32 pm
I am a fan of: Delaware State
A.K.A.: phillywild305
Location: The 9th Circle of Hellaware

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by DSUrocks07 »

houndawg wrote:
UNI88 wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:10 pm Both parties are great at exploiting race to "keep the little people at each other."
Both parties are run by the hyper-wealthy and always have been of course. Citizens United made it officially GAME OVER for you and me about 10 years ago.
More proof? Look at how gung-ho Democrats have been about wanting to repeal the SALT cap ever since it passed.

Sent from my SM-G781U1 using Tapatalk

MEAC, last one out turn off the lights.

@phillywild305 FB
User avatar
Winterborn
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 8812
Joined: Wed May 25, 2016 2:33 pm
I am a fan of: Beer and Diesel Pickups
Location: Wherever I hang my hat

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by Winterborn »

JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:59 pm
Winterborn wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:39 pm

Probably cause he knows that it is a lost cause or can't remember his script. At least Trump put effort into his lies. :coffee:
There are things Biden could say. The economy is actually doing quite well right now. There are caveats, but we are probably going to end the year with more annual GDP growth, more job creation, and a larger decline in unemployment than we had during any year during which Trump was President during most of it (I say that because Trump was President until January 21).

Trump was great at exaggerating what was going on with the economy and claiming credit for things he had nothing to do with. Biden is not.

BTW, I am not saying Biden is the reason why there is probably going to be more annual GDP growth, more job growth, and a bigger decline in unemployment rate for 2021 than there was during any year 2017 through 2020. But politicians usually fall all over themselves taking credit for things like that. Biden's doing it a little bit. But Trump was a person that would claim credit if there was a rainfall after a drought. If anything good happened, Trump was all over it claiming credit for it. If anything bad happened, it was ALWAYS somebody else's fault. For better or for worse, Biden isn't like that.
Maybe he should address inflation being the highest it has been in 30 years. Currently at 6.2% and climbing. Doesn't matter how well the economy is doing if your wages are being devalued due to inflation.
The Labor Department said the consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, increased at the fastest annual pace since 1990. Inflation also topped 5% for the fifth straight month.

The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, in October climbed 4.6% from a year earlier, higher than September’s 4% rise and the largest increase since 1991.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflati ... 1636491959
“The best of all things is to learn. Money can be lost or stolen, health and strength may fail, but what you have committed to your mind is yours forever.” – Louis L’Amour

“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf

"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
Ivytalk
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 26827
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2009 6:22 pm
I am a fan of: Salisbury University
Location: Republic of Western Sussex

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by Ivytalk »

Winterborn wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:05 am
JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:59 pm

There are things Biden could say. The economy is actually doing quite well right now. There are caveats, but we are probably going to end the year with more annual GDP growth, more job creation, and a larger decline in unemployment than we had during any year during which Trump was President during most of it (I say that because Trump was President until January 21).

Trump was great at exaggerating what was going on with the economy and claiming credit for things he had nothing to do with. Biden is not.

BTW, I am not saying Biden is the reason why there is probably going to be more annual GDP growth, more job growth, and a bigger decline in unemployment rate for 2021 than there was during any year 2017 through 2020. But politicians usually fall all over themselves taking credit for things like that. Biden's doing it a little bit. But Trump was a person that would claim credit if there was a rainfall after a drought. If anything good happened, Trump was all over it claiming credit for it. If anything bad happened, it was ALWAYS somebody else's fault. For better or for worse, Biden isn't like that.
Maybe he should address inflation being the highest it has been in 30 years. Currently at 6.2% and climbing. Doesn't matter how well the economy is doing if your wages are being devalued due to inflation.
The Labor Department said the consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, increased at the fastest annual pace since 1990. Inflation also topped 5% for the fifth straight month.

The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, in October climbed 4.6% from a year earlier, higher than September’s 4% rise and the largest increase since 1991.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflati ... 1636491959
I can’t wait to see what excuse StWronge comes up with to excuse the Biden gang for this inconvenient development. :coffee:

Nah, I really can wait.
“I’m tired and done.” — 89Hen 3/27/22.
User avatar
89Hen
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 39223
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm
I am a fan of: High Horses
A.K.A.: The Almighty Arbiter

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by 89Hen »

JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:59 pm we are probably going to end the year with more annual GDP growth, more job creation, and a larger decline in unemployment than...
Thanks Covid. :lol:
Image
User avatar
SDHornet
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 19443
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:50 pm
I am a fan of: Sacramento State Hornets

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by SDHornet »

This is that truck driver that spent $153 on his campaign and beat the most senior NJ state senator. :lol: :clap: :notworthy:

User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

Ivytalk wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:09 am
Winterborn wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:05 am

Maybe he should address inflation being the highest it has been in 30 years. Currently at 6.2% and climbing. Doesn't matter how well the economy is doing if your wages are being devalued due to inflation.



https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflati ... 1636491959
I can’t wait to see what excuse StWronge comes up with to excuse the Biden gang for this inconvenient development. :coffee:

Nah, I really can wait.
Over the years I have been consistent in saying that people tend to dramatically over-estimate the impact a particular President has on the economy. It looks to me like most analysts think that most of what is going on with inflation right now is due to the fact that the economy is recovering after being really whacked a year ago. One illustration of the thought process is in the article at https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investin ... right-now/. It uses airline ticket prices to illustrate:
To get a sense of what’s happening with inflation, let’s look at airfare.

Once the Covid-19 pandemic began last spring, demand for travel plummeted. Folks canceled tickets en masse, delayed vacations and hunkered down as stay-at-home orders took effect. This, of course, led to airfare prices to drop precipitously.

In April 2020, for instance, airfares fell 24% year over year, and they would spend most of the rest of 2020 at these depressed levels. When you compared airline ticket prices in the time of Covid-19 to prices from the before-times, they were typically about 25% less expensive.

But once a year passes, these year-over-year comparisons turn: The June CPI report, for instance, compared vaccine-era airline prices to what they were after Covid-19 struck. So it’s not terribly surprising that June 2021 airline prices were almost 25% higher than a year before, if only because so few people were buying tickets then.

This is one of the key points that the Fed has been pounding away at: You must pay attention to these so-called base effects. Now that vaccines are widely available and Covid-19 cases are dropping, more people will fly. Yes, airline prices are much higher than a year ago, but they remain cheaper than where they were pre-pandemic.
The article does go on to say the effect doesn't explain everything.

Another thing is that, during my lifetime, I have seen no association between higher deficits and higher inflation. For example: Inflation plunged during the Reagan Administration while deficits generally rose. So I don't think the empirical data support the classic "deficits spur inflation" argument in the context of what's gone on in the United States. I think there are things that have happened in the world at large that are consistent with that concept. But I haven't seen evidence that it's been that way in the United States.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

Well, here's a good one for you. I just went ahead and ran a correlation between annual inflation rate and annual budget deficit for the years of my lifetime through 2020 (1957 through 2020). I used the inflation rates reported at https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us ... ndex-1913- and the budget deficit numbers reported at https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306. And there is a significant (p = 0.02) NEGATIVE correlation. In other words, there is an association such that inflation rates have tended to be LOWER when budget deficits have been HIGHER.

I'll do more with this probably. Stuff like adjusting budget deficits FOR inflation and looking at deficits as percent of GDP. But the first cut was consistent with the impression I've formed over my lifetime. In the United States during my lifetime, there just hasn't been a thing where inflation rates tended to be higher when deficit spending was higher.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

Ok. I did inflation rate vs. deficit as a percent of GDP. Correlation coefficient is -0.141472221. A little different in that that's not a "significant" negative correlation (p = 0.26). But still absolutely no evidence that higher deficits have meant greater inflation during my lifetime.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
89Hen
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 39223
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm
I am a fan of: High Horses
A.K.A.: The Almighty Arbiter

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by 89Hen »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:36 pm Over the years I have been consistent in saying that people tend to dramatically over-estimate the impact a particular President has on the economy.
Neato. So Biden is responsible for "GDP growth, more job creation, and a larger decline in unemployment" but not inflation. That's awfully convenient my liberal friend.
Image
User avatar
Pwns
Level4
Level4
Posts: 7273
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:38 pm
I am a fan of: Georgia Friggin' Southern
A.K.A.: FCS_pwns_FBS (AGS)

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by Pwns »

Have to agree with JSO on this one TBH. People think of inflation as being created by demand shocks like a greater money supply but they can also be created by supply shocks, which we clearly have with our supply chain and labor shortage issues.

As for blaming Biden, what goes around comes around. Donks blamed the GOP for the financial crisis and got so mad at Wall Street that they punished small banks with Dodd-Frank.
Celebrate Diversity.*
*of appearance only. Restrictions apply.
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

Another check on my memory that started my impression years ago. The image below shows inflation rates and budget deficits as percentage of GDP for the Carter and Reagan years. There is a "significant" negative correlation such that inflation rates tended to go down as deficits as percentage of GDP went up (r = -0.715638887, p = 0.005).

To me, when you see stuff like that you really need to be willing to question the conventional wisdom of higher deficit spending causing higher inflation. I mean in the context of what happens in the United States.

Now, you are going to get a data pair contributing to the higher deficit associated with higher inflation rate side with this year. But it's not going to be enough to change the overall association. And you're still going to have the three highest annual inflation rates (1979, 1980, 1981) associated with three relatively low deficits as percentages of GDP. And, if you were just looking at it empirically based on what's happened in the past (over my lifetime at least), you would not be looking at higher deficit spending as a probable cause of the increase in inflation. Not if you were just looking at the numbers themselves and looking in the numbers for associations that might indicate causes. Higher deficit spending would not be on the radar.

Image
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
89Hen
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 39223
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm
I am a fan of: High Horses
A.K.A.: The Almighty Arbiter

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by 89Hen »

Pwns wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:22 pm they can also be created by supply shocks, which we clearly have with our supply chain and labor shortage issues.
I've had zero problem finding milk, meat, eggs, bacon, etc... but the cost of them is going up very quickly. Maybe I'm just lucky and live where all the groceries are being shipped.
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

89Hen wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:17 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:36 pm Over the years I have been consistent in saying that people tend to dramatically over-estimate the impact a particular President has on the economy.
Neato. So Biden is responsible for "GDP growth, more job creation, and a larger decline in unemployment" but not inflation. That's awfully convenient my liberal friend.
I didn't say Biden is responsible for GDP growth, job creation, and a larger decline in unemployment. I said there are caveats to those things. I think it's obvious that coming out of the really bad declines that happened due to the pandemic, at least to some extent, is the primary driver of those things. When I mentioned that stuff what I was talking about was the contrast between Biden and Trump in terms of claiming credit for things. I think Biden does it to SOME extent. But it's not like Trump was. Trump is the type that...say we would have had a year during his Presidency when no hurricanes made landfall in the United States...he'd claim credit for that. Again: Anything good that happened was because of him and anything bad that happened was somebody else's fault. And I mean ANYTHING.

Again: I am consistent in having the position that people WAY over estimate the impact of who the President currently is on the economy. For that reason I have always lamented the fact that the economy plays as large a role as it does in the way people vote for President.

I do not think Biden is the reason for the inflation. I also do not think he is the reason why the economy is almost certainly going to generate significantly more jobs during 2021 than it did during any of the Trump years. I think the main factor in both of those things is the way the pandemic has played out. But I understand that a critical mass of people blame whoever the President is for bad things that happen and credit whoever the President is for good things that happen whether the President was the cause or even a real factor in the situation or not. I wish it wasn't that way. But it is.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
houndawg
Level5
Level5
Posts: 23236
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:14 pm
I am a fan of: SIU
A.K.A.: houndawg
Location: Egypt

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by houndawg »

SDHornet wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:59 pm This is that truck driver that spent $153 on his campaign and beat the most senior NJ state senator. :lol: :clap: :notworthy:


:rofl: :rofl: :clap:
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
User avatar
UNI88
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 19955
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
I am a fan of: UNI
Location: the foggy, woggy banks Of the Limpopo River

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by UNI88 »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:28 pm Another check on my memory that started my impression years ago. The image below shows inflation rates and budget deficits as percentage of GDP for the Carter and Reagan years. There is a "significant" negative correlation such that inflation rates tended to go down as deficits as percentage of GDP went up (r = -0.715638887, p = 0.005).

To me, when you see stuff like that you really need to be willing to question the conventional wisdom of higher deficit spending causing higher inflation. I mean in the context of what happens in the United States.

Now, you are going to get a data pair contributing to the higher deficit associated with higher inflation rate side with this year. But it's not going to be enough to change the overall association. And you're still going to have the three highest annual inflation rates (1979, 1980, 1981) associated with three relatively low deficits as percentages of GDP. And, if you were just looking at it empirically based on what's happened in the past (over my lifetime at least), you would not be looking at higher deficit spending as a probable cause of the increase in inflation. Not if you were just looking at the numbers themselves and looking in the numbers for associations that might indicate causes. Higher deficit spending would not be on the radar.

Image
Once again you might be too focused on macro-data. Is it best to compare annual inflation to deficit as a % of inflation or should you be looking at what happens to monthly inflation after major spending bills are implemented? Does the start of a big government outlay juice inflation? Is that a better indicator of the impact of a particular POTUS & Congress on inflation at the time.
Being wrong about a topic is called post partisanism - kalm
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

houndawg wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:39 pm
SDHornet wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:59 pm This is that truck driver that spent $153 on his campaign and beat the most senior NJ state senator. :lol: :clap: :notworthy:


:rofl: :rofl: :clap:
It's a good laugh line but, actually, government in the United States works pretty damned well at all levels. It could indeed be a lot worse. Having one guy like that in office probably won't do much damage. But it wouldn't be good to have too many people like that guy trying to run things.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
UNI88
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 19955
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
I am a fan of: UNI
Location: the foggy, woggy banks Of the Limpopo River

Re: Virginia/New Jersey Elections

Post by UNI88 »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:05 pm
houndawg wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:39 pm
:rofl: :rofl: :clap:
It's a good laugh line but, actually, government in the United States works pretty damned well at all levels. It could indeed be a lot worse. Having one guy like that in office probably won't do much damage. But it wouldn't be good to have too many people like that guy trying to run things.
Having an assembly of completely inexperienced legislators would likely be a disaster. Having one non-politician who could give the other legislators the perspective of a regular person could be a very good thing.
Being wrong about a topic is called post partisanism - kalm
Post Reply