Verifying what Exit Polls say about voting Demographics

[JohnStOnge]

Not that anybody should doubt it. But we were in a discussion the other day, I cited exit polling data on demographics of voting, and someone chided me about believing exit polls. I responded that we could easily check to see if the picture they present is correct by looking at actual votes in districts that are majority non White.

So I had time on my hands today and I did. There are 435 Congressional Districts. Trump beat Clinton in 230 of them (53%). But Trump beat Clinton in only 9 of the 113 Congressional Districts (8%) that are majority non White. Clinton won majority non White districts by 40 percentage points on average.

In contrast, Trump won majority White districts by 10 percentage points on average. He won 221 of 322 of them (69%). The picture painted is the same as that consistently painted during recent decades by exit polling: Republicans consistently win in national elections by a solid but relatively modest margin among Whites while Democrats win by an overwhelming margin among non Whites.

I guess Republicans can take something positive from the fact that 8 of the 9 majority non White districts Trump did win were in places where the largest minority group was Hispanics. But the picture still isn't all that pretty. Trump won four majority non White districts with sizable Hispanic components in California. But he lost 33 majority non White districts in that State and those all have sizable Hispanic components too. Trump won two majority non White districts in Texas but lost 13 there. Same kind of thing for the most part. In the overwhelming majority of instances, a large Hispanic component to the population was not a positive thing for Trump.

The most interesting anomaly is from Florida where Trump won a Congressional District that is only 19.7% White. Florida District 25. it's 69.8% Hispanic and it's near the southern tip of the State. Kind of a relatively sparsely populated area west of District with Miami in it. I suspect we're looking at traditionally conservative Cuban Americans there.

Bottom line is that the picture painted is the same as that painted by the exit polling. If something doesn't change very significantly in the way non Whites vote the long term does not look good for the Republican Party.

I think I see a gerrymandering effect too. The US population is 63% non Hispanic White but 74% of the Congressional Districts are non Hispanic White majority districts.

Sources:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/1 ... l-district (Yes I know it's the Daily Kos but I see no reason for them to lie about what the District by District voting results were).

https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Overview (Click on a State, Click "Congressional Districts," then Click on "Race and Ethnicity." I picked this source because "White" is only non Hispanic White and "Hispanic" is basically "Hispanic White." No overlap in groups so the percentages add up to 100).

[93henfan]

[GannonFan]

Dude, you've lost it. You're basically saying there will be one political party going forward (although we've always had two) and that non-white people only vote in blocs when that's only ever been the voting pattern of African-Americans. And you're wrong on both of those points. And I did that in just 4 sentences, as opposed to your treatise.

[Chizzang]

I love that movie so much... so much

[houndawg]

Not that anybody should doubt it. But we were in a discussion the other day, I cited exit polling data on demographics of voting, and someone chided me about believing exit polls. I responded that we could easily check to see if the picture they present is correct by looking at actual votes in districts that are majority non White.

So I had time on my hands today and I did. There are 435 Congressional Districts. Trump beat Clinton in 230 of them (53%). But Trump beat Clinton in only 9 of the 113 Congressional Districts (8%) that are majority non White. Clinton won majority non White districts by 40 percentage points on average.

In contrast, Trump won majority White districts by 10 percentage points on average. He won 221 of 322 of them (69%). The picture painted is the same as that consistently painted during recent decades by exit polling: Republicans consistently win in national elections by a solid but relatively modest margin among Whites while Democrats win by an overwhelming margin among non Whites.

I guess Republicans can take something positive from the fact that 8 of the 9 majority non White districts Trump did win were in places where the largest minority group was Hispanics. But the picture still isn't all that pretty. Trump won four majority non White districts with sizable Hispanic components in California. But he lost 33 majority non White districts in that State and those all have sizable Hispanic components too. Trump won two majority non White districts in Texas but lost 13 there. Same kind of thing for the most part. In the overwhelming majority of instances, a large Hispanic component to the population was not a positive thing for Trump.

The most interesting anomaly is from Florida where Trump won a Congressional District that is only 19.7% White. Florida District 25. it's 69.8% Hispanic and it's near the southern tip of the State. Kind of a relatively sparsely populated area west of District with Miami in it. I suspect we're looking at traditionally conservative Cuban Americans there.

Bottom line is that the picture painted is the same as that painted by the exit polling. If something doesn't change very significantly in the way non Whites vote the long term does not look good for the Republican Party.

I think I see a gerrymandering effect too. The US population is 63% non Hispanic White but 74% of the Congressional Districts are non Hispanic White majority districts.

Sources:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/1 ... l-district (Yes I know it's the Daily Kos but I see no reason for them to lie about what the District by District voting results were).

https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Overview (Click on a State, Click "Congressional Districts," then Click on "Race and Ethnicity." I picked this source because "White" is only non Hispanic White and "Hispanic" is basically "Hispanic White." No overlap in groups so the percentages add up to 100).

Dry your eyes, sweetheart, the electoral college will keep the brown people away....there's a good boy

[andy7171]

I love that movie so much... so much

Really? I was so excited to see it on TV last weekend. The youtube clips are funny as hell, but I couldn't get through 15 minutes.

[93henfan]

I love that movie so much... so much

Really? I was so excited to see it on TV last weekend. The youtube clips are funny as hell, but I couldn't get through 15 minutes.

There’s your sign.

[Ibanez]

[SDHornet]

Here is where I typically troll JSO with a 29% of Team Brown voted for Trump line to trigger him into another pages long response about polls...but per this article by the Atlantic, I'm wrong...

...per a SurveyMonkey poll that is within range of other polls indicating overall Trump support, Team Brown (and black) support has actually increased during Trum's first year. Buried at the very end of the leftist slanted article are these gems:

Among African Americans and Hispanics, reactions to Trump depend more on gender than age or education. In every age group, and at every level of education, about twice as many African American men as women gave Trump positive marks. In all, 23 percent of black men approved of Trump’s performance versus 11 percent of black women. “The outlier here isn’t [black] men … it’s [black] women, where you have near-universal disapproval of Trump,” said Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster who studies African American voters. Still, black men are one of the few groups for which Trump’s 2017 average approval rating significantly exceeds his 2016 vote share.

Among Hispanics, men were also much more likely than women to express positive views about Trump. Among Hispanic men older than 50, Trump’s approval— strikingly—exceeded 40 percent. But at least three-fifths of Hispanic women in every age group (including both those with and without a college degree) disapproved. Trump’s 2017 approval rating slightly exceeded his 2016 vote share among Hispanic men, and was slightly below it among Hispanic women.

... and these folks haven't even seen their pay bumps due to the Trump tax reform yet. JSO and his fellow donks should be shitting thier pants with this news.

Whoops.

[houndawg]

Here is where I typically troll JSO with a 29% of Team Brown voted for Trump line to trigger him into another pages long response about polls...but per this article by the Atlantic, I'm wrong...

...per a SurveyMonkey poll that is within range of other polls indicating overall Trump support, Team Brown (and black) support has actually increased during Trum's first year. Buried at the very end of the leftist slanted article are these gems:

Among African Americans and Hispanics, reactions to Trump depend more on gender than age or education. In every age group, and at every level of education, about twice as many African American men as women gave Trump positive marks. In all, 23 percent of black men approved of Trump’s performance versus 11 percent of black women. “The outlier here isn’t [black] men … it’s [black] women, where you have near-universal disapproval of Trump,” said Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster who studies African American voters. Still, black men are one of the few groups for which Trump’s 2017 average approval rating significantly exceeds his 2016 vote share.

Among Hispanics, men were also much more likely than women to express positive views about Trump. Among Hispanic men older than 50, Trump’s approval— strikingly—exceeded 40 percent. But at least three-fifths of Hispanic women in every age group (including both those with and without a college degree) disapproved. Trump’s 2017 approval rating slightly exceeded his 2016 vote share among Hispanic men, and was slightly below it among Hispanic women.

... and these folks haven't even seen their pay bumps due to the Trump tax reform yet. JSO and his fellow donks should be shitting thier pants with this news.

Whoops.

Team Brown is who should be shitting their pants. Conks hate your guts and would rather go extinct than associate with mud people from shithole countries.

and you know it.

[SDHornet]

Team Brown is who should be shitting their pants. Conks hate your guts and would rather go extinct than associate with mud people from shithole countries.

and you know it.

So donks are openly sabotaging the immigration reform effort and its the conks that hate us?

Someone got their daily talking points from the leftists again.

[JohnStOnge]

Dude, you've lost it. You're basically saying there will be one political party going forward (although we've always had two) and that non-white people only vote in blocs when that's only ever been the voting pattern of African-Americans. And you're wrong on both of those points. And I did that in just 4 sentences, as opposed to your treatise.

Except you're wrong. I don't normally speak in terms of "blocks." I speak in terms of percentages. Blacks do consistently vote in larger percentages than Asians and Hispanics do. But Asians and Hispanics still vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. Below is a table of how Hispanics and Asians voted according to exit polls by State in the 2016 election where numbers are available due to sufficient sample sizes. The BEST situation for Trump was North Carolina where he lost among Hispanics by "only" 17 percentage points (that's the 57% to 40% one). The problem is that, in North Carolina, Hispanics were only 5% of the voters while Blacks were 20%. So among all non Whites he lost by 40 percentage points. Honestly, I don't understand why you can't just admit that you're wrong on this one.

[CID1990]

Team Brown is who should be shitting their pants. Conks hate your guts and would rather go extinct than associate with mud people from shithole countries.

and you know it.

So donks are openly sabotaging the immigration reform effort and its the conks that hate us?

Someone got their daily talking points from the leftists again.

You triggered poor houndawg

now you just got scolded for not knowing what's good for you

I think he's conflating his own hate for team brown leaving the plantation with that of the imaginary klukker in the white house


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JohnStOnge]

Since I forgot to indicate States while I was making my last table I made another one looking just at Hispanics. It shows the national vote among Hispanics and all of the State by State exit polling results readily available as far as I can tell. There is just no way to look at it and not see that if something doesn't change with respect to how Hispanics vote a growing percentage of Hispanics in the electorate is not good news for the Republican Party. I highlighted Texas and Florida because those two are huge. The Democrats already have California and New York firmly in their back pocket when it comes to the Electoral College. Florida is now borderline and flips back and forth. Texas has been reliably Republican but Trump only won it 9 percentage points this last time. Hispanic populations are rapidly growing in both States.

It's just ridiculous to contend that the Republicans aren't in trouble if something doesn't change in the demographic voting patterns. That's not to say there necessarily won't be any Republican Party. For one thing the Senate could allow Republicans to hang on to influence because of the way that works. But it's moving towards being a permanent minority Party that almost never if not never at all wins the Presidency.

[JohnStOnge]

And by the way looking at Hispanics in particular doesn't really matter. The fact is that if you just look at Congressional Districts in which Whites aren't the majority in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by an average of 40 percentage points. You can quibble around about how Blacks vote more overwhelmingly against Republicans than other non White groups do all you want. But the fact is that the results in Districts that were majority non White pretty clearly indicate that if only non Whites were voting Trump would not have had a snowball's chance in hell. You can break the non Whites down however you want but the bottom line is the same.

And the fact that non Whites are increasing as a percentage of the popluation is not good news for the Republican Party UNLESS Republicans can find a way to significantly alter the ways in which non Whites vote.

Why would any rational person even argue with that proposition?

[BDKJMU]

[JohnStOnge]

Have your fun. But you know I'm right.

[JohnStOnge]

Dry your eyes, sweetheart, the electoral college will keep the brown people away....there's a good boy

No, it won't. Texas and Florida are becoming browner at a rapid rate.

[JohnStOnge]

Here is where I typically troll JSO with a 29% of Team Brown voted for Trump line to trigger him into another pages long response about polls...but per this article by the Atlantic, I'm wrong...

...per a SurveyMonkey poll that is within range of other polls indicating overall Trump support, Team Brown (and black) support has actually increased during Trum's first year. Buried at the very end of the leftist slanted article are these gems:

Among African Americans and Hispanics, reactions to Trump depend more on gender than age or education. In every age group, and at every level of education, about twice as many African American men as women gave Trump positive marks. In all, 23 percent of black men approved of Trump’s performance versus 11 percent of black women. “The outlier here isn’t [black] men … it’s [black] women, where you have near-universal disapproval of Trump,” said Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster who studies African American voters. Still, black men are one of the few groups for which Trump’s 2017 average approval rating significantly exceeds his 2016 vote share.

Among Hispanics, men were also much more likely than women to express positive views about Trump. Among Hispanic men older than 50, Trump’s approval— strikingly—exceeded 40 percent. But at least three-fifths of Hispanic women in every age group (including both those with and without a college degree) disapproved. Trump’s 2017 approval rating slightly exceeded his 2016 vote share among Hispanic men, and was slightly below it among Hispanic women.

... and these folks haven't even seen their pay bumps due to the Trump tax reform yet. JSO and his fellow donks should be shitting thier pants with this news.

Whoops.

So, do you think > 23 percent of Black men will vote for Trump in the next Presidential election?

No, you don't because you know there's no way that will happen.

And that thing about Hispanic men older than 50 is laughable. We're talking about the overall Hispanic vote. What about Hispanic men younger than 50? Would you predict that Trump will get > 40 percent of the Hispanic vote overall in the next election?

No, you wouldn't because you know that's not going to happen either.

[JohnStOnge]

And you guys are being ridiculous. You look at the last election and you see that Clinton won in 102 of the 113 Districts where <50% of the voters were non Hispanic White. And the average was Clinton winning by 40 percentage points. And you're going to argue that non Hispanic Whites decreasing as a percentage of the population isn't a problem for Republicans? That's just...as I said...ridiculous.

[Chizzang]

I love that movie so much... so much

Really? I was so excited to see it on TV last weekend. The youtube clips are funny as hell, but I couldn't get through 15 minutes.

It's an American Classic
And
It was the Italians favorite movie of all time
She would laugh so hard she was crying and I'd have to pause the damned movie all the time

[houndawg]

Team Brown is who should be shitting their pants. Conks hate your guts and would rather go extinct than associate with mud people from shithole countries.

and you know it.

So donks are openly sabotaging the immigration reform effort and its the conks that hate us?

Someone got their daily talking points from the leftists again.

They hate you so much that they don't care about getting your vote even though in general you're conservatives by nature. Not to say that a lot of donks don't hate you too, but it isn't the deep-seated revulsion of those who see you as necessary to keep wages down but would cross the street if they saw you on the sidewalk...

Tio Tomas...

[houndawg]

Dude, you've lost it. You're basically saying there will be one political party going forward (although we've always had two) and that non-white people only vote in blocs when that's only ever been the voting pattern of African-Americans. And you're wrong on both of those points. And I did that in just 4 sentences, as opposed to your treatise.

Actually we're pretty much there for all practical purposes. Different rhetoric same corporate sponsors.

[Ivytalk]

Really? I was so excited to see it on TV last weekend. The youtube clips are funny as hell, but I couldn't get through 15 minutes.

It's an American Classic
And
It was the Italians favorite movie of all time
She would laugh so hard she was crying and I'd have to pause the damned movie all the time

So that’s why you broke up?

[kalm]

Dude, you've lost it. You're basically saying there will be one political party going forward (although we've always had two) and that non-white people only vote in blocs when that's only ever been the voting pattern of African-Americans. And you're wrong on both of those points. And I did that in just 4 sentences, as opposed to your treatise.

Actually we're pretty much there for all practical purposes. Different rhetoric same corporate sponsors.