Blue Wave 2018

[Baldy]

There has been lots of talk concerning the inevitable Donk massacre in the 2018 midterms. Many "experts" have predicted that the Conks were going to get slaughtered because Trump. Generic ballots have been showing Donks up +10 all through 2017.

Until now.

Poll: GOP gains on generic ballot, Trump approval ticks upward

Republicans have erased the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot in a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that, for the first time since April, also shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating equaling the percentage of voters who disapprove of his job performance.

Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, are undecided.

The GOP’s 1-point advantage comes after three months of tracking in which Democrats maintained a lead ranging between 2 and 10 points on the generic ballot. That has been generally smaller than the party’s lead in other public surveys: The most recent RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats ahead by 7 points on the generic ballot, though that’s down from a high of 13 points late last year.

The new year has also produced a Trump polling bump. In the new poll, 47 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while the same percentage disapprove.

And while House Democrats have pledged to yoke GOP candidates to House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the poll suggests that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will be a more effective foil for Republicans than Ryan will be for Democrats.

Voters are split on their perceptions of Ryan: 36 percent view him favorably, and 40 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

But Pelosi’s numbers are more negative: Only 28 percent of voters have a favorable impression of her, while nearly half, 49 percent, view her unfavorably.

Please put jelly, dback, and DonkStOnge on suicide watch.

Oh and shhhhhhhh, don't tell DSO that it's all about the economy.

[kalm]

There has been lots of talk concerning the inevitable Donk massacre in the 2018 midterms. Many "experts" have predicted that the Conks were going to get slaughtered because Trump. Generic ballots have been showing Donks up +10 all through 2017.

Until now.

Poll: GOP gains on generic ballot, Trump approval ticks upward

Republicans have erased the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot in a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that, for the first time since April, also shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating equaling the percentage of voters who disapprove of his job performance.

Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, are undecided.

The GOP’s 1-point advantage comes after three months of tracking in which Democrats maintained a lead ranging between 2 and 10 points on the generic ballot. That has been generally smaller than the party’s lead in other public surveys: The most recent RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats ahead by 7 points on the generic ballot, though that’s down from a high of 13 points late last year.

The new year has also produced a Trump polling bump. In the new poll, 47 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while the same percentage disapprove.

And while House Democrats have pledged to yoke GOP candidates to House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the poll suggests that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will be a more effective foil for Republicans than Ryan will be for Democrats.

Voters are split on their perceptions of Ryan: 36 percent view him favorably, and 40 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

But Pelosi’s numbers are more negative: Only 28 percent of voters have a favorable impression of her, while nearly half, 49 percent, view her unfavorably.

Please put jelly, dback, and DonkStOnge on suicide watch.

Oh and shhhhhhhh, don't tell DSO that it's all about the economy.

Keep an eye on the Democratic primaries. The party right now is still in the clutches of the Pelosi's, Schumers, and Tom Perez establishment types who have managed to lose a 1,000 seats nationwide over the past few years.

There are movements afoot to run progressive candidates in the primaries (and a number of them are vets and small business owners which helps) who refuse to take money from PAC's and the DNC is trying it's hardest to lock them out of the process.

If more than a few slip through do they have a shot at winning? Perhaps not, but they are certainly closer to riding a populist wave like Trump did and could potentially unseat some more Republicans. We've seen that a "Republican Lite" establishment Dem strategy is not a winner. But if the establishment manages to knock the rebellion back down, then I expect at least a small portion of the left to sit home or vote 3rd party. Will it be enough to prevent a Blue Wave? It might.

[GannonFan]

There has been lots of talk concerning the inevitable Donk massacre in the 2018 midterms. Many "experts" have predicted that the Conks were going to get slaughtered because Trump. Generic ballots have been showing Donks up +10 all through 2017.

Until now.

Poll: GOP gains on generic ballot, Trump approval ticks upward



Please put jelly, dback, and DonkStOnge on suicide watch.

Oh and shhhhhhhh, don't tell DSO that it's all about the economy.

Keep an eye on the Democratic primaries. The party right now is still in the clutches of the Pelosi's, Schumers, and Tom Perez establishment types who have managed to lose a 1,000 seats nationwide over the past few years.

There are movements afoot to run progressive candidates in the primaries (and a number of them are vets and small business owners which helps) who refuse to take money from PAC's and the DNC is trying it's hardest to lock them out of the process.

If more than a few slip through do they have a shot at winning? Perhaps not, but they are certainly closer to riding a populist wave like Trump did and could potentially unseat some more Republicans. We've seen that a "Republican Lite" establishment Dem strategy is not a winner. But if the establishment manages to knock the rebellion back down, then I expect at least a small portion of the left to sit home or vote 3rd party. Will it be enough to prevent a Blue Wave? It might.

Even if some of the far left do break through, it could be a tea party-like impact - you may have a more "pure" candidate get into the general election, but they may find they have a harder time getting elected in the general election versus the more partisan-involved primaries.

Still way too early to tell how November is going to go. Kalm's right, I wouldn't bet the ranch on the Pelosi-led Dems suddenly reversing what has been a decade of losing up and down the ticket (seriously, why haven't they been able to move on past her and Schumer by now? At least they finally got Reid to leave), but it'll be more about the current state of the nation in the month or two leading up to November that will matter. If the economy is cruising along and everyone is feeling honky dory about their economic prospects, and if Trump hasn't nuked a nation, the GOP might end up keeping both houses. If the economy is trash and Trump is even loonier than he is now and has done something awful, then the impeachment crowd will be voted in and we'll have another impeachment (Dems unlikely to get 2/3 of the Senate so removal from office would be unlikely). But still too early, IMO, to judge if a blue wave is likely or not.

[Pwns]

Keep an eye on the Democratic primaries. The party right now is still in the clutches of the Pelosi's, Schumers, and Tom Perez establishment types who have managed to lose a 1,000 seats nationwide over the past few years.

There are movements afoot to run progressive candidates in the primaries (and a number of them are vets and small business owners which helps) who refuse to take money from PAC's and the DNC is trying it's hardest to lock them out of the process.

If more than a few slip through do they have a shot at winning? Perhaps not, but they are certainly closer to riding a populist wave like Trump did and could potentially unseat some more Republicans. We've seen that a "Republican Lite" establishment Dem strategy is not a winner. But if the establishment manages to knock the rebellion back down, then I expect at least a small portion of the left to sit home or vote 3rd party. Will it be enough to prevent a Blue Wave? It might.

Nothing wrong with outsiders, but if you're going to nominate a bunch of Chelsea Mannings and Angelina Anistons that could possibly backfire.

Or maybe Trump has started a new trend. Who knows?

[BDKJMU]

There has been lots of talk concerning the inevitable Donk massacre in the 2018 midterms. Many "experts" have predicted that the Conks were going to get slaughtered because Trump. Generic ballots have been showing Donks up +10 all through 2017.

Until now.

Poll: GOP gains on generic ballot, Trump approval ticks upward



Please put jelly, dback, and DonkStOnge on suicide watch.

Oh and shhhhhhhh, don't tell DSO that it's all about the economy.

Keep an eye on the Democratic primaries. The party right now is still in the clutches of the Pelosi's, Schumers, and Tom Perez establishment types who have managed to lose a 1,000 seats nationwide over the past few years.

There are movements afoot to run progressive candidates in the primaries (and a number of them are vets and small business owners which helps) who refuse to take money from PAC's and the DNC is trying it's hardest to lock them out of the process.

If more than a few slip through do they have a shot at winning? Perhaps not, but they are certainly closer to riding a populist wave like Trump did and could potentially unseat some more Republicans. We've seen that a "Republican Lite" establishment Dem strategy is not a winner. But if the establishment manages to knock the rebellion back down, then I expect at least a small portion of the left to sit home or vote 3rd party. Will it be enough to prevent a Blue Wave? It might.

And we’ve seen that a "Democrat Lite" establishment conk strategy is not a winner either...

[Ivytalk]

Keep an eye on the Democratic primaries. The party right now is still in the clutches of the Pelosi's, Schumers, and Tom Perez establishment types who have managed to lose a 1,000 seats nationwide over the past few years.

There are movements afoot to run progressive candidates in the primaries (and a number of them are vets and small business owners which helps) who refuse to take money from PAC's and the DNC is trying it's hardest to lock them out of the process.

If more than a few slip through do they have a shot at winning? Perhaps not, but they are certainly closer to riding a populist wave like Trump did and could potentially unseat some more Republicans. We've seen that a "Republican Lite" establishment Dem strategy is not a winner. But if the establishment manages to knock the rebellion back down, then I expect at least a small portion of the left to sit home or vote 3rd party. Will it be enough to prevent a Blue Wave? It might.

Even if some of the far left do break through, it could be a tea party-like impact - you may have a more "pure" candidate get into the general election, but they may find they have a harder time getting elected in the general election versus the more partisan-involved primaries.

Still way too early to tell how November is going to go. Kalm's right, I wouldn't bet the ranch on the Pelosi-led Dems suddenly reversing what has been a decade of losing up and down the ticket (seriously, why haven't they been able to move on past her and Schumer by now? At least they finally got Reid to leave), but it'll be more about the current state of the nation in the month or two leading up to November that will matter. If the economy is cruising along and everyone is feeling honky dory about their economic prospects, and if Trump hasn't nuked a nation, the GOP might end up keeping both houses. If the economy is trash and Trump is even loonier than he is now and has done something awful, then the impeachment crowd will be voted in and we'll have another impeachment (Dems unlikely to get 2/3 of the Senate so removal from office would be unlikely). But still too early, IMO, to judge if a blue wave is likely or not.

Hunky.

Unless you’re dal.

[GannonFan]

Even if some of the far left do break through, it could be a tea party-like impact - you may have a more "pure" candidate get into the general election, but they may find they have a harder time getting elected in the general election versus the more partisan-involved primaries.

Still way too early to tell how November is going to go. Kalm's right, I wouldn't bet the ranch on the Pelosi-led Dems suddenly reversing what has been a decade of losing up and down the ticket (seriously, why haven't they been able to move on past her and Schumer by now? At least they finally got Reid to leave), but it'll be more about the current state of the nation in the month or two leading up to November that will matter. If the economy is cruising along and everyone is feeling honky dory about their economic prospects, and if Trump hasn't nuked a nation, the GOP might end up keeping both houses. If the economy is trash and Trump is even loonier than he is now and has done something awful, then the impeachment crowd will be voted in and we'll have another impeachment (Dems unlikely to get 2/3 of the Senate so removal from office would be unlikely). But still too early, IMO, to judge if a blue wave is likely or not.

Hunky.

Unless you’re dal.

Indeed.

[dbackjon]

Democrat Margaret Good flipped a Florida State House seat last night, the 39th state seat flipped since Trump's election.


Trump keeps throwing bombs - his budget, slashing Medicare and SS, etc will catch up.

Plus, court rulings in states like PA where the GOP has gerrymandered their way to more House seats than they should have based on voting, will flip a number of seats in of itself.

[dbackjon]

It's funny you complain about Pelosi and Schumer, when the GOP leadership is far more repugnant.

A clean election results in a Blue Wave. Would have had it in 2016 if the election had been clean.

[Baldy]

It's funny you complain about Pelosi and Schumer, when the GOP leadership is far more repugnant.

A clean election results in a Blue Wave. Would have had it in 2016 if the election had been clean.

I guess you didn't read the last sentence in the quotes. Ryan and McConnell are polarizing with 50/50 support, but Pelosi and Schumer are downright HATED by a vast majority...to quote the article, they are "repugnant".

Oh, and please define a "clean election".

[houndawg]

There has been lots of talk concerning the inevitable Donk massacre in the 2018 midterms. Many "experts" have predicted that the Conks were going to get slaughtered because Trump. Generic ballots have been showing Donks up +10 all through 2017.

Until now.

Poll: GOP gains on generic ballot, Trump approval ticks upward



Please put jelly, dback, and DonkStOnge on suicide watch.

Oh and shhhhhhhh, don't tell DSO that it's all about the economy.

Keep an eye on the Democratic primaries. The party right now is still in the clutches of the Pelosi's, Schumers, and Tom Perez establishment types who have managed to lose a 1,000 seats nationwide over the past few years.

There are movements afoot to run progressive candidates in the primaries (and a number of them are vets and small business owners which helps) who refuse to take money from PAC's and the DNC is trying it's hardest to lock them out of the process.

If more than a few slip through do they have a shot at winning? Perhaps not, but they are certainly closer to riding a populist wave like Trump did and could potentially unseat some more Republicans. We've seen that a "Republican Lite" establishment Dem strategy is not a winner. But if the establishment manages to knock the rebellion back down, then I expect at least a small portion of the left to sit home or vote 3rd party. Will it be enough to prevent a Blue Wave? It might.

After watching them choke away the most unlosable Presidential election since George Washington I would not put it past the DNC to have learned nothing from 2016. I'm not sure if the DNC gets that the anti-Hillary feeling on the left was not the same as that on the right- the conks tearful sobbing and whimpering is personal
- Hillary is the demon nemesis that they couldn't lay a finger on for decades and made them look like clowns with metronomic regularity. The left's "fvck you" during the general election was directed at the DNC that fucked them over at every turn in the primary.

[GannonFan]

It's funny you complain about Pelosi and Schumer, when the GOP leadership is far more repugnant.

A clean election results in a Blue Wave. Would have had it in 2016 if the election had been clean.

The GOP leadership at least changes, relatively speaking - granted, it goes from bad to bad, but it's more fluid. Pelosi and Schumer will likely die in office. Oh, and they're bad too.

What's this about 2016? The Dems picked up 6 in the House, 2 in the Senate, and lost a net 2 governorships in 2016. The Dems would still have needed 24 more seats in the House to take the House (and remember, the House elections were the one piece of the pie in that election where the GOP actually had more actual total votes nationwide than the Dems did), and they needed 3 more seats in the Senate to take control (avoid Pence tie breaker). What in the 2016 election happened that stopped this?

[kalm]

It's funny you complain about Pelosi and Schumer, when the GOP leadership is far more repugnant.

A clean election results in a Blue Wave. Would have had it in 2016 if the election had been clean.

One of them voted for domestic spying renewal.

The other protects Wall Street.

What's not to like?

[GannonFan]

It's funny you complain about Pelosi and Schumer, when the GOP leadership is far more repugnant.

A clean election results in a Blue Wave. Would have had it in 2016 if the election had been clean.

One of them voted for domestic spying renewal.

The other protects Wall Street.

What's not to like?

You're ruining dback's pretend-clarity here: Blue Good, Red Bad. He might have a short circuit if he has to go beyond that.

[HI54UNI]

It's funny you complain about Pelosi and Schumer, when the GOP leadership is far more repugnant.

A clean election results in a Blue Wave. Would have had it in 2016 if the election had been clean.

I must've missed you complaining about "clean elections" in the Democrat primary for president.

[CID1990]

It's funny you complain about Pelosi and Schumer, when the GOP leadership is far more repugnant.

A clean election results in a Blue Wave. Would have had it in 2016 if the election had been clean.

Is a "clean" election something different from an election that isn't rigged?

Is that some new term OccupyDemocrats is pushing?

Have you gotten the establishment Dem memo that elections aren't rigged, or are you guys moving into agreement with Trump on the matter?

Do you see that your version of the left and Trump's version of the right are precise mirror images of each other?

Surely you see that your comment is 100% Trumpian

[CID1990]

One of them voted for domestic spying renewal.

And Trump happily signed off on it, too. See? They surely can get along on some things (and I suspect that as we move into the next couple years, we will find the Dems being against things they have traditionally been against, because Trump)

If you're a surveillance government Democrat, Trump's as much a fellow traveler as a surveillance government run of the mill Republican

I can't wait to see the debate over an infrastructure bill... the hypocrisy on both sides is going to be deafening

[kalm]

One of them voted for domestic spying renewal.

And Trump happily signed off on it, too. See? They surely can get along on some things (and I suspect that as we move into the next couple years, we will find the Dems being against things they have traditionally been against, because Trump)

If you're a surveillance government Democrat, Trump's as much a fellow traveler as a surveillance government run of the mill Republican

I can't wait to see the debate over an infrastructure bill... the hypocrisy on both sides is going to be deafening

To steal your term...statism.

[houndawg]

It's funny you complain about Pelosi and Schumer, when the GOP leadership is far more repugnant.

A clean election results in a Blue Wave. Would have had it in 2016 if the election had been clean.

So does a clean Democratic primary.

[Baldy]

It's funny you complain about Pelosi and Schumer, when the GOP leadership is far more repugnant.

A clean election results in a Blue Wave. Would have had it in 2016 if the election had been clean.

Is a "clean" election something different from an election that isn't rigged?

Is that some new term OccupyDemocrats is pushing?

Have you gotten the establishment Dem memo that elections aren't rigged, or are you guys moving into agreement with Trump on the matter?

Do you see that your version of the left and Trump's version of the right are precise mirror images of each other?

Surely you see that your comment is 100% Trumpian

A "clean" election is a dog whistle for the #resistance tardos.

Those idiots have been pushing that shit hard in Georgia since their 30 year old man-child no nothing candidate lost in the GA-06 special election. They think that election was actually rigged.

[JohnStOnge]

I don't think there is any question that the Republican position has improved since late December. But I also think we need to bear in mind that, as the linked article says, the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll has pretty consistently shown the Republicans as doing better than most polls do. I also noted that Real Clear Politics does not have the results of that poll as part of its average in either the generic Congressional Ballot or Trump Job Approval even though the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll polling period ended on February 12 and they have some polls reported with polling periods that ended on February 13. My guess is that means that the people at Real Clear Politics do not consider the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll to be of sufficient quality. But we'll see if it shows up over the next few days.

I think that the truth is that Republicans are still behind by something like 5 to 10 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot but they have gained ground. This does not surprise me as people are indeed seeing more take home pay due to the tax cuts and also Presidents and their Parties typically get a bump from State of the Union addresses. And I think the Republicans do have a net advantage on the gerrymandering front.

[kalm]

Is a "clean" election something different from an election that isn't rigged?

Is that some new term OccupyDemocrats is pushing?

Have you gotten the establishment Dem memo that elections aren't rigged, or are you guys moving into agreement with Trump on the matter?

Do you see that your version of the left and Trump's version of the right are precise mirror images of each other?

Surely you see that your comment is 100% Trumpian

A "clean" election is a dog whistle for the #resistance tardos.

Those idiots have been pushing that shit hard in Georgia since their 30 year old man-child no nothing candidate lost in the GA-06 special election. They think that election was actually rigged.

So you’re more a fan of dirty action?

[CID1990]

A "clean" election is a dog whistle for the #resistance tardos.

Those idiots have been pushing that **** hard in Georgia since their 30 year old man-child no nothing candidate lost in the GA-06 special election. They think that election was actually rigged.

So you’re more a fan of dirty action?

Reductio ad absurdum


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CAA Flagship]

A "clean" election is a dog whistle for the #resistance tardos.

Those idiots have been pushing that shit hard in Georgia since their 30 year old man-child no nothing candidate lost in the GA-06 special election. They think that election was actually rigged.

So you’re more a fan of dirty action?

Wrecked him?

[89Hen]

Plus, court rulings in states like PA where the GOP has gerrymandered their way to more House seats than they should have based on voting, will flip a number of seats in of itself.

Except Maryland liberal gerrymandering being overturned will have the opposite effect.