2018 Election Predictions

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby CAA Flagship » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:55 am

93henfan wrote:Joo nose, Bash isn't terrible from the teeth down.

I think Bash is 1/1024 horse.

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby 93henfan » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:59 am

CAA Flagship wrote:
93henfan wrote:Joo nose, Bash isn't terrible from the teeth down.

I think Bash is 1/1024 horse.


Wtf? That was supposed to be "You know, Bash...."

Fucking autocorrect.
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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby CAA Flagship » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:01 am

93henfan wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:I think Bash is 1/1024 horse.


Wtf? That was supposed to be "You know, Bash...."

Fucking autocorrect.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby Grizalltheway » Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:17 am

Big Jon defeats Maryland Matt. :clap:

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby CAA Flagship » Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:40 am

Grizalltheway wrote:Big Jon defeats Maryland Matt. :clap:

Heard CNN mention Helena last night.
They pronounced it Helena.

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby Grizalltheway » Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:43 am

CAA Flagship wrote:
Grizalltheway wrote:Big Jon defeats Maryland Matt. :clap:

Heard CNN mention Helena last night.
They pronounced it Helena.

That's some serious fake news.

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby Skjellyfetti » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:33 pm

Didn't feel too good about my predictions Tuesday night. But, looking better and better. :D

Something in the range of:

House - +36-40 D
Senate - +1-3 R
Governors - +7-8 D



state legislative chambers - +6 D

state legislative seats - +323 D

state AGs - +4 D

:rockon:
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Cid1990 wrote:It is going to be a sad day for a lot of people when all that comes of all of this is Flynn getting whacked.

Mueller is going to take a beating on the left before this business is over

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby Skjellyfetti » Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:03 pm

Bump.

Just hit +38 D in the House with two still outstanding. :clap:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source= ... 7741210905
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Cid1990 wrote:It is going to be a sad day for a lot of people when all that comes of all of this is Flynn getting whacked.

Mueller is going to take a beating on the left before this business is over

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby Skjellyfetti » Tue Nov 27, 2018 12:56 pm

"The unmasking thing was all created by Devin Nunes"
- Richard Burr, (R-NC)

Cid1990 wrote:It is going to be a sad day for a lot of people when all that comes of all of this is Flynn getting whacked.

Mueller is going to take a beating on the left before this business is over

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby houndawg » Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:09 pm

Skjellyfetti wrote:House - D +40
Senate - R +1
Governor's - D +7


On the nose. :lol:


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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby css75 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:56 pm

It is amazing what stuffing ballot boxes can do.


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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby houndawg » Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:57 pm

css75 wrote:It is amazing what stuffing ballot boxes can do.


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or changing clothes and voting again... :lol:
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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:39 am

Doesn't exactly fit but this thread but close enough. When I was in some exchanges about the mid terms on another site I noticed some things about the 2018 Senate mid terms.

There were 35 Senate races. 18 were in States won by Trump in 2016 and 17 were in States won by Clinton. Republicans were 0 - 17 in States won by Clinton. Democrats were 7 - 11 in States won by Trump.

As we know, the four biggest Electoral College prizes during Presidential elections are California (55), Texas (38), Florida, and New York. The Senate elections illustrated the point that the Democrat hold on California and New York is much stronger and more reliable than the Republican hold on Texas and Florida. There was no Republican in the California Senate race. In that State they were not even able to field a competitive candidate. The Democrat candidate won the New York Senate race by 34 percentage points (67% to 33%). Republicans won the Texas Senate race by 2.6 percentage points (50.9% to 48.3%) and won the Florida Senate race by 0.12 percentage points (50.05% to 49.93%)

Overall popular vote doesn't matter much per se in Senate races. But it does say something about overall combined public sentiment in the States involved. 59.3% of people who voted during the 2018 Senate elections voted for Democrats while 39.1% voted for Republicans. That edge is distorted some by the fact that there was no Republican in the California Senate race California accounts for 13% of the national vote total. But if we leave California out Democrats still had a 55% to 45% edge in all of the other States combined.
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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby tribe_pride » Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:42 am

JohnStOnge wrote:Doesn't exactly fit but this thread but close enough. When I was in some exchanges about the mid terms on another site I noticed some things about the 2018 Senate mid terms.

There were 35 Senate races. 18 were in States won by Trump in 2016 and 17 were in States won by Clinton. Republicans were 0 - 17 in States won by Clinton. Democrats were 7 - 11 in States won by Trump.

As we know, the four biggest Electoral College prizes during Presidential elections are California (55), Texas (38), Florida, and New York. The Senate elections illustrated the point that the Democrat hold on California and New York is much stronger and more reliable than the Republican hold on Texas and Florida. There was no Republican in the California Senate race. In that State they were not even able to field a competitive candidate. The Democrat candidate won the New York Senate race by 34 percentage points (67% to 33%). Republicans won the Texas Senate race by 2.6 percentage points (50.9% to 48.3%) and won the Florida Senate race by 0.12 percentage points (50.05% to 49.93%)

Overall popular vote doesn't matter much per se in Senate races. But it does say something about overall combined public sentiment in the States involved. 59.3% of people who voted during the 2018 Senate elections voted for Democrats while 39.1% voted for Republicans. That edge is distorted some by the fact that there was no Republican in the California Senate race California accounts for 13% of the national vote total. But if we leave California out Democrats still had a 55% to 45% edge in all of the other States combined.


The thing that you are not taking into account though is that there were 24 Democratic Senate seats (+2 independents who side with Dems) who were up for election and only 9 Republican Senate seats up for election. The incumbent wins much more than not notwithstanding which side won the Presidential seat. In this election, the incumbents won 27 of the 32 seats where the incumbent was in the General Election.

The next two Senate elections have more Republicans who are up for election and they will probably get more votes than the Dems even if President Trump loses and the Republicans lose the majority in the Senate.

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Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Postby houndawg » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:28 pm

CID1990 wrote:
Pwns wrote:Post 'em here.

GOP holds the Senate, Nancy becomes speaker again which ultimately proves to be a gift to Trump.


Agree

And you bring an interesting point - I think that if the Dems take back the House it will improve Trump's chances of winning a second term (assuming he runs). We'll have a circus for the next two years (after an insurgency within the Dem Party to deny Pelosi the speakership)- with Pelosi and the old guard trying to keep a cap on impeachment, defunding ICE, etc - while the young Turks like Occasional-Cortex whip up the fringe. Two years will be all it takes for them to swing independent voters towards the GOP

The irony is that the easiest path back to the WH for the Dems will be to appear as the adults in the room, but they will wind up doing the opposite. And the sad part is that Trump is a statist big spender and there would likely be a lot of common ground between him and the Dems... particularly on infrastructure - but you can't do business with Hitler regardless of what you might achieve


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since we agree on this it has to be true - Nancy Pelosi seems to be bigly outperforming the predictions of this thread too.
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