How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

[CAA Flagship]

You think the donks would have been willing to negotiate and compromise with no government shutdown. It still would have been zero $$ for any physical barrier..

The donks weren't willing to compromise before the shutdown and during the shutdown. They won't be willing to compromise during the next 3 weeks, or in Sept for FY 2020, or for FY 2021..There's going to be more shutdownS.

You know the shutdown began before Donks controlled the House, right?

The Senate passed a very similar compromise before Christmas to fund the government through Feb 8 by unanimous consent. The House didn't bring it to the floor for a vote because Trump threw a temper tantrum.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 336303002/

Things are a bit different now though. The pain of the shutdown has been felt. Now the Dems have to negotiate in good faith. They really didn't have to before.

For the Dems, this is both a problem and an opportunity. They will likely have to give in to something, but they can get something for it.

[CID1990]

I'm hearing Feb 28. Either way, it's a can kicker.

Back pay, n****.

Hey Ivy I don’t know about you but I’m not bringing any money to Sambos next time


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[CID1990]

The potholes on Clara Barton Parkway had better be filled by Monday morning.

No sh1t!

How bad that road has gotten is a modern wonder


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[CID1990]

Good thing we didn't wager money on this or it would be one of those gambling conspiracies. Trump has to sign it to become official, so that could be after this Saturday, pushing it into the column of those who voted 5 weeks.

I actually paid off a bet to Jellybelly a couple years back. I think it wa the first cash money seen in the town of Blowing Rock that year.

Blowing Rock is the title of Jim Nabors’ biography



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[css75]

You know the shutdown began before Donks controlled the House, right?

The Senate passed a very similar compromise before Christmas to fund the government through Feb 8 by unanimous consent. The House didn't bring it to the floor for a vote because Trump threw a temper tantrum.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 336303002/

Things are a bit different now though. The pain of the shutdown has been felt. Now the Dems have to negotiate in good faith. They really didn't have to before.

For the Dems, this is both a problem and an opportunity. They will likely have to give in to something, but they can get something for it.

I don’t trust them, but if they fail to do so, Trump can do the emergency thing and blame them. Lindsey Graham suggested this approach a couple weeks ago.


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[93henfan]

I don’t trust them, but if they fail to do so, Trump can do the emergency thing and blame them. Lindsey Graham suggested this approach a couple weeks ago.


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And then the dominoes fall.

In 2021, President Harris will declare emergencies for:

1. Climate change
2. Gun violence
3. Medicare for all
4...(fill in the liberal wet dreams)

[dbackjon]

I don’t trust them, but if they fail to do so, Trump can do the emergency thing and blame them. Lindsey Graham suggested this approach a couple weeks ago.


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And then the dominoes fall.

In 2021, President Harris will declare emergencies for:

1. Climate change
2. Gun violence
3. Medicare for all
4...(fill in the liberal wet dreams)

Yup. Many, many more issues that are more of a National Emergency that a worthless border wall, and none of them should have National Emergencies declared for them.

[SeattleGriz]

And then the dominoes fall.

In 2021, President Harris will declare emergencies for:

1. Climate change
2. Gun violence
3. Medicare for all
4...(fill in the liberal wet dreams)

Yup. Many, many more issues that are more of a National Emergency that a worthless border wall, and none of them should have National Emergencies declared for them.

I thought I had read there was a 3rd option that didn't involve emergency and could be fully funded, but only in drug corridors.

[Ivytalk]

I actually paid off a bet to Jellybelly a couple years back. I think it wa the first cash money seen in the town of Blowing Rock that year.

As the first to pick correct date, each contestant should send the bourbon to me - assuming the deal isn't finished by midnight. PM me for the address of get it from Z man or the Colonel.

Who are you kidding? You can’t even pick your nose.

[Ivytalk]

Back pay, n****.

Hey Ivy I don’t know about you but I’m not bringing any money to Sambos next time


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Me neither. 93 will be crying all the way to the bank. Beer’s on him!

[JohnStOnge]

You think the donks would have been willing to negotiate and compromise with no government shutdown.

I think that's what was going on. I think that back in December Democrats and Republicans were negotiating. They agreed to pass another continuing resolution to continue. Then Trump decided to use an extortion tactic. Then he took a very hard position of "wall" and Pelosi took a very hard position of "no wall."

It's a split government now. Neither side can force the other to give it everything it wants. I think if they can tone down the rhetoric they CAN negotiate. Each side gives some to get some.

But, really, if Trump wants the wall he needs to do a better job of selling it. It's crazy to cause that big of a thing pushing for something a majority of the People are opposed to. Make his case and convince people.

Another thing: If it's THAT important the Republicans could've used that reconciliation process thing they used to do tax reform and almost repeal the Affordable Care Act. Here's an article where some Republicans proposed that late but they could've done it earlier during their two years of control:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/ ... nciliation

If they wanted the wall THAT badly why didn't they do that instead of waiting until the Democrats are about to take over the House then throwing a fit about it?

[CID1990]

Hey Ivy I don’t know about you but I’m not bringing any money to Sambos next time


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Me neither. 93 will be crying all the way to the bank. Beer’s on him!

... and if he makes SES I’ll never bring money again


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[JohnStOnge]

Watching a panel discussion with Kirsten Powers and Rick Santorum on it. Powers made the point I've been thinking about. Left leaning media have been yucking it up and doing victory dances. That's not a good thing. It can't do anything but make it harder to negotiate and less likely for Trump to be willing to compromise. Santorum agreed. And I agree.

DON'T RUB IT IN.

[JohnStOnge]

I don’t trust them, but if they fail to do so, Trump can do the emergency thing and blame them. Lindsey Graham suggested this approach a couple weeks ago.


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And then the dominoes fall.

In 2021, President Harris will declare emergencies for:

1. Climate change
2. Gun violence
3. Medicare for all
4...(fill in the liberal wet dreams)

Nah. I don't think he'll get anywhere with it. It could very well be that if Trump tries to do it the experience will be so bad that it'll actually discourage future Presidents from trying it.

BUT...it would allow him to make other entities including the Judiciary his foil and to show his base that he's fighting against the "swamp" for his wall.

[houndawg]

I actually paid off a bet to Jellybelly a couple years back. I think it wa the first cash money seen in the town of Blowing Rock that year.

Blowing Rock is the title of Jim Nabors’ biography



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Ever the Neanderthal....

[houndawg]

As the first to pick correct date, each contestant should send the bourbon to me - assuming the deal isn't finished by midnight. PM me for the address of get it from Z man or the Colonel.

Who are you kidding? You can’t even pick your nose.

Open by Feb. 2. Called it weeks ago.

[93henfan]

What a debacle President Trump’s shutdown proved to be — what a toddler’s pageant of foot-stomping and incompetence, of vainglory and self-defeat. Mr. Trump tormented public servants and citizens and wounded the country, and, in conceding on Friday after holding the government hostage for 35 days, could claim to have achieved nothing.

He succeeded only in exposing the emptiness of his bully’s bravado, of his “I alone can fix it” posturing. Once upon a time, Mr. Trump promised that Mexico would pay for a wall. He instead made all Americans pay for a partisan fantasy.

Maybe you want a wall. Can you possibly argue that Mr. Trump’s shutdown strategy advanced your cause? He made the right decision on Friday — to sign a bill reopening the government through Feb. 15, giving lawmakers time to reach a permanent deal. But he could have had this same outcome without a shutdown. He ultimately agreed to the sort of bill that Democrats have been pitching for weeks — one that contains not one dollar in wall funding.

In his announcement, the president struggled to obscure his failure with yet another rambling infomercial about the glory of walls. “No matter where you go, they work,” he said (raising the question of how you can get there if, in fact, there’s a wall in your way). He had nothing of substance to offer beyond the usual specious claims that only his wall can end the border flood of drugs, crime and migrant women who have been duct-taped and stuffed into vans by human traffickers. To repeat: Fewer border-crossing apprehensions were made in 2017 than at any time since 1971; drugs are overwhelmingly smuggled through established points of entry; and the only crisis at the border is a humanitarian one, of people fleeing violence and seeking asylum — again, mostly at established points of entry — under international law.

There is nothing to celebrate about this sorry shutdown, though it’s perhaps understandable that congressional Democrats were reveling in Mr. Trump’s collapse. Members of Mr. Trump’s conservative fan base demonstrated that, even if the president continues to insist on alternative facts, they are capable of acknowledging that truth.

Within minutes of the announcement, the bomb-throwing pundit Ann Coulter — among those credited with having scolded Mr. Trump into rejecting the temporary funding bill passed by the Senate last month — tweeted her judgment:

“Good news for George Herbert Walker Bush: As of today, he is no longer the biggest wimp ever to serve as President of the United States.”

The president tried to stand tough for Ms. Coulter and her ilk. Even as federal workers lined up at food banks, sought unemployment benefits and took backup gigs driving for Uber, he insisted he would not give an inch. He stormed out of meetings with Democratic leaders. He indulged in a public spat with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over his State of the Union address. He tweeted angrily. On Thursday, he was still vowing, “We will not cave!”

But on Friday he caved. With a growing number of overworked, stressed-out air traffic controllers calling in sick, staffing shortages at two airports on the East Coast began to snarl air travel. The spectacle of enraged travelers, canceled flights and imperiled safety turned up the heat on the White House and Congress.

Republican lawmakers were already in a foul mood. On Thursday, the Senate voted on, and failed to pass, two competing plans for reopening the government. Afterward, there were reports of sniping and finger-pointing within the Republican conference.

Along with their concerns about the human cost of the shutdown, Republicans were no doubt antsy about the negative impact the shutdown was having on their president’s public standing. Polls consistently showed that most Americans did not support the shutdown and that most blamed Mr. Trump for it. An ABC poll released this week put Mr. Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent and showed him to have the lowest two-year average approval of any president in the past seven decades. Perhaps he noticed that a poll released on Wednesday found that 59 percent of Americans thought he cared little about their problems.

On top of all that, the Russia investigation hit the headlines again, when, in a predawn raid on Friday, F.B.I. agents — working without pay — arrested Roger Stone, a longtime adviser to Mr. Trump. Mr. Stone has been indicted on seven counts related to Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election, including witness tampering, obstruction and making false statements.

It was, in short, shaping up to be a very bad day for the president, who really cannot be blamed for wanting to change the story line.

Of course, the new narrative — that Mr. Trump got owned by Ms. Pelosi — isn’t likely to sit well with him, either. And who knows what he’ll do next to try to salve his ego, and salvage some political capital with the minority of Americans who still seem inclined to support him.

In his Friday remarks, Mr. Trump made threatening noises about declaring a national emergency if Congress cannot reach a compromise by the time this agreement expires. Polls suggest that such a move would be wildly unpopular, causing the president and his party even more grief. Maybe that danger will motivate congressional Republicans to hammer out a deal without him.

Here’s hoping that this mess leaves Mr. Trump with a vital lesson — even if he doesn’t care about a functional government, the rest of America does.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/25/opin ... -deal.html

[93henfan]

Me neither. 93 will be crying all the way to the bank. Beer’s on him!

... and if he makes SES I’ll never bring money again


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No worries. That ain't happening. SES folks generally have a layer of polished veneer, so well laid over their underlying bullshit, that I just wasn't born with. I was born with the fatal trait of "keeping it real" that won't allow me to rise to that level. When the emperor isn't wearing clothes, I point.

You've probably had the same conversation that I've had with co-equals within government. We make a solid wage, with solid benefits, and we're not digging ditches out in the January cold or the July heat. We put up with the occasional pay freezes and shut downs, but at the end of the day, it still feels good to be a gangsta. The sheer politicality of an SES spot, and the on-call 24/7 nature, makes you ask if the couple of extra shekels is worth it. My conclusion is it's probably not, at least for 9 years (when I can retire). Maybe for three, but not nine. I have a line on a non-sup 15 vacated by a retiree in November. I was already pulled in by my SES and asked if I was interested and I replied affirmatively. I've acted for that retiree, with flair, several times and the intent is to make it a quick internal posting. I don't know if others were pinged internally as well, but I think my chances are good. The only drawback to the position (which is a contract review board chairperson) is that the role is being phased out in the near future. So, the writing on the wall says I'd be transitioned to some sort of aide-de-camp type job, which could in turn make me on call 24/7. I don't really want that sort of situation, but I'm willing to roll the dice.

Anyway, I'll get the beers if you get the crabs.

[CID1990]

... and if he makes SES I’ll never bring money again


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You've probably had the same conversation that I've had with co-equals within government. We make a solid wage, with solid benefits, and we're not digging ditches out in the January cold or the July heat.

I’ll never make SES for similar reasons

But I’ve only rarely had that conversation ^^^^ with other State folks. It is the seldom encountered person there that isn’t on the borderline of thinking that government exists to provide us all with jobs..... and that the ones we do have are onerous and underpaid

Hell, I know some civil service types who are already on Guaranteed Basic Income.... if you get my drift

[houndawg]

What is SES?

[SDHornet]

Perhaps rational people are angry because what Trump's doing is irrational. It's also super weird that you take pleasure in the anger of others.

Now here's the reality: the more insane Trump and the GOP behave, the more moderate and sensible people willing to consider other opinions and viewpoints leave the party. All you're left with is a dwindling pool of increasingly myopic and hard line voters.

Pleasure? Naw, more like entertainment. You can't tell me the quick devolution of 93 into JSO2.0 in a matter of days wasn't entertaining. That was some quality CS.com entertainment right there.

Moderate and sensible people have long gotten off the conk and donk BS long ago.

[SDHornet]

The more I think about this the more I think it’s a brilliant move by Trump. Trump now gets to do his SOTU address. He can sit up there and say, with Pelosi sitting right behind him, in front of a national TV audience on every network: “The democrats said they would negotiate only after the govt was fully reopened. So I temporary fully reopened the govt. I am willing to negotiate and compromise”. And turn and look at Pelosi and ask “Are you willing to negotiate and compromise” as she just has to sit there. And he can also make his case for more physical barrier on the border, point out that he's only asking to go from 700ish miles of physical barrier to 900+, and hammer donks on immigration, to a national TV audience on every network.

And then after the 3 weeks is up, and if the democrats still refuse to compromise and say zero $$ for additional physical barrier, on Feb 15 when the govt partially shuts down again, he can say, “See, the democrats lied when they said that if the government was reopened they would negotiate.

So basically in 3 weeks we’d be right back to where we are now, but he’ll have had the opportunity do his SOTU, to sway public opinion more to his side and show that the whole democrat stance of “reopen the government and then we’ll negotiate” was a lie, and they wouldn't be able to use that angle again.

Brilliant move by Trump..

I don't post in 4 days or so and only browsed the 15ish pages on this thread since then, but holy fuck this is a terrible post.

[SDHornet]

My thoughts on the Trump cave:

Called it on the conk senators being the first to cave.

Anyone thinking the donks will offer anything substantial in the next 3 weeks is delusional.

That said, no way Trump has another shutdown. My money is him going the "Emergency Act" route. donks will judge shop to get the wall stopped but some of it will get built while it takes its time going through the courts.

Good news is the "new NAFTA" trade deals will now get passed as that was being held up due to the shutdown.

What was the final tally on the duration? Did it hit the 6 week mark?

[93henfan]

What is SES?

Civilian equivalent of military general. (loosely)

[CID1990]

What is SES?

Senior Exec Service