How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Political discussions

How long will the shutdown last?

Poll ended at Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:15 pm

Less than a week (open by Dec 28)
3
10%
1 to <2 weeks (open by Jan 4)
2
7%
2 to <3 weeks (open by Jan 11)
5
17%
3 to <4 weeks (open by Jan 18)
2
7%
4 to <5 weeks (open by Jan 25)
0
No votes
5 to <6 weeks (open by Feb 2)
3
10%
6 or more weeks
14
48%
 
Total votes: 29

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by mainejeff »

Declare a National Emergency if its such a fucking problem!
Go Black Bears!

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by AZGrizFan »

93henfan wrote:There's no arbitrator or court involvement possible unless she ever decided to take it to court. I'm paying her the full amount on Feb 1, as I did on Jan 1. I'm good until April on my rainy day fund.
Your CU will most likely give you a 0% loan for the funds (if that's where your paycheck is normally deposited), if you don't feel like draining your savings and just using OPM.... :thumb:
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by AZGrizFan »

mainejeff wrote:Declare a National Emergency if its such a fucking problem!
Honest question, MJ: Doesn't the donks' about face on immigration and need for a wall give you ANY concern?
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by ∞∞∞ »

AZGrizFan wrote:
mainejeff wrote:Declare a National Emergency if its such a **** problem!
Honest question, MJ: Doesn't the donks' about face on immigration and need for a wall give you ANY concern?
No; I like that they've shifted their position instead of digging in.

Plus there's a bunch of new faces in the Democratic party; 2019 House isn't the same as 2013 House.

Values change...that's the point.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by 93henfan »

AZGrizFan wrote:
93henfan wrote:There's no arbitrator or court involvement possible unless she ever decided to take it to court. I'm paying her the full amount on Feb 1, as I did on Jan 1. I'm good until April on my rainy day fund.
Your CU will most likely give you a 0% loan for the funds (if that's where your paycheck is normally deposited), if you don't feel like draining your savings and just using OPM.... :thumb:
I bank with USAA, and since DoD is funded, they don't really give a shit about the rest of Government and aren't offering anything, at least publicly. I become less impressed with them each passing year. I already dumped them in favor of GEICO on auto insurance. I think USAA has lost their way, honestly. They were a no-brainer for military officers when we were the only people served. Now that they opened it up to enlisted, veterans, and everyone and their brother, their risk and rates have gone up.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by AZGrizFan »

∞∞∞ wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Honest question, MJ: Doesn't the donks' about face on immigration and need for a wall give you ANY concern?
No; I like that they've shifted their position instead of digging in.

Plus there's a bunch of new faces in the Democratic party; 2019 House isn't the same as 2013 House.

Values change...that's the point.
Values change collectively? Groupthink? It doesn't seem odd to you that not a SINGLE donk who supported the wall just 3 years ago when Obama was president supports it now that Trump is president? That doesn't seem just a taaaaaad bit hypocritical to you? It doesn't concern you that less than 3 years ago it was (in donk's words) "a border crisis" and a "crisis of epic proportions" that REQUIRED a wall to be built, and now suddenly it's a "manufactured crisis" of Trump's own doing? You can honestly say, with a straight face, that its NOT just a political stunt (to prevent Trump from achieving a campaign promise) but is actually, morally a "change in values"?
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
Last edited by AZGrizFan on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by AZGrizFan »

93henfan wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Your CU will most likely give you a 0% loan for the funds (if that's where your paycheck is normally deposited), if you don't feel like draining your savings and just using OPM.... :thumb:
I bank with USAA, and since DoD is funded, they don't really give a shit about the rest of Government and aren't offering anything, at least publicly. I become less impressed with them each passing year. I already dumped them in favor of GEICO on auto insurance. I think USAA has lost their way, honestly. They were a no-brainer for military officers when we were the only people served. Now that they opened it up to enlisted, veterans, and everyone and their brother, their risk and rates have gone up.
Same. I've moved homeowners, boat, & RV insurance away. Still bank there (really only because I don't want to bank where I work), but their rates absolutely suck. Even service has started to suck.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by dbackjon »

Chizzang wrote:
dbackjon wrote:

There is no such thing as an unessential employee. There are people whose jobs can be delayed, but the work are still important.

National Parks are being destroyed. Economies are being hurt. There are real damages being done.
:suspicious:

Jon you know I love you dearly but...
National park are being "destroyed" might be a bit of an exaggeration
and our economy isn't going to even blip over these jobs
and as SDcorndog poited out - everybody will get their back pay

:coffee:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/11/us/calif ... index.html

And local economies that depend on tourism ARE being hurt. Losing 10 or 20 thousand dollars may not mean much to you, but it can make or break a small business.

And while federal employees will get back pay, the businesses and their employees won't
:thumb:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by dbackjon »

89Hen wrote:
dbackjon wrote:Dems still care about DACA
Only when it suits them.

Incorrect.
:thumb:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by dbackjon »

89Hen wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:only reason they DON'T support a wall now is because Trump DOES.
What's more amazing to me than the reversal of many of the Dem politicians on this one is the fact that I don't see many (if any) Dem supporters upset by it or even acknowledging it. It is undeniable. When you have videos of Schumer going on and on about the need for border security and the evils of illegal immigration.... :suspicious:
They funded border security. That funding is working. All stats show that it is working. Trump is trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist to the degree it does. He is wasting money on a solution that will be ineffective and environmentally destructive.

Democrats want border security. They have voted for border security. But not for a quarter mile clearing of US land through sensitive areas.


But that is not black and white, it requires thinking and understanding, which the right can't do.
:thumb:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by dbackjon »

AZGrizFan wrote:
mainejeff wrote:Declare a National Emergency if its such a fucking problem!
Honest question, MJ: Doesn't the donks' about face on immigration and need for a wall give you ANY concern?

Except it is NOT an about face, unlike flipflop Trump
:thumb:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Chizzang »

93henfan wrote:
Chizzang wrote:Update:
Trump rejects Graham's shutdown deal Republicans negotiated with Republicans...
This ^ is kinda important - Fox News won't cover this

It's fully on Trump now
:nod:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/ ... wn-1096118
Bump!
This is really the conversation for the day regarding The Wall

:nod:
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by 93henfan »

He may be a soulless piece of shit, but he does crack me up.

Peaches :rofl:

phpBB [video]
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by AZGrizFan »

dbackjon wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Honest question, MJ: Doesn't the donks' about face on immigration and need for a wall give you ANY concern?

Except it is NOT an about face, unlike flipflop Trump
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Google is your friend, Jon. It's an about face by Clinton, Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Reid, and every other swinging dick who proclaimed it a "crisis" and passed legislation just 5 short years ago supporting the wall...because then it was "Obama's Wall"...now that it's Trump's wall they (for some strange reason) no longer support it. Go figure.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by AZGrizFan »

dbackjon wrote:
89Hen wrote: What's more amazing to me than the reversal of many of the Dem politicians on this one is the fact that I don't see many (if any) Dem supporters upset by it or even acknowledging it. It is undeniable. When you have videos of Schumer going on and on about the need for border security and the evils of illegal immigration.... :suspicious:
They funded border security. That funding is working. All stats show that it is working. Trump is trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist to the degree it does. He is wasting money on a solution that will be ineffective and environmentally destructive.

Democrats want border security. They have voted for border security. But not for a quarter mile clearing of US land through sensitive areas.


But that is not black and white, it requires thinking and understanding, which the right can't do.
Who cares about 1/4 mile of clearing. There's wide swaths of the border up to EIGHTY FUCKING MILES into America that we can not go into because of activity of illegals and drug runners. Sacrificing 1/4 mile to get back that 80 mile stretch is well worth it.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Chizzang »

93henfan wrote:He may be a soulless piece of shit, but he does crack me up.

Peaches :rofl:

phpBB [video]
Trump wins the day if he just signs the Republican proposal
puts everybody back to work
and then blames the Democrats

It's not that complicated
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A: The actual teachings of Jesus

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Grizalltheway »

Alright chumps, sit still for a minute and read this
Howdy.

To recap: I’m a licensed structural and civil engineer with a MS in structural engineering from the top program in the nation and over a decade of experience on high-performance projects, and particularly of cleaning up design disasters where the factors weren’t properly accounted for, and I’m an adjunct professor of structural analysis and design at UH-Downtown. I have previously been deposed as an expert witness in matters regarding proper construction of walls and the various factors associated therein, and my testimony has passed Daubert.

Am I a wall expert? I am. I am literally a court-accepted expert on walls.

Structurally and civil engineering-wise, the border wall is not a feasible project. Trump did not hire engineers to design the thing. He solicited bids from contractors, not engineers. This means it’s not been designed by professionals. It’s a disaster of numerous types waiting to happen.

What disasters?

Off the top of my head...
1) It will mess with our ability to drain land in flash flooding. Anything impeding the ability of water to get where it needs to go (doesn’t matter if there are holes in the wall or whatever) is going to dramatically increase the risk of flooding.
2) Messes with all kind of stuff ecologically. For all other projects, we have to do an Environmental Site Assessment, which is arduous. They’re either planning to circumvent all this, or they haven’t accounted for it yet, because that’s part of the design process, and this thing hasn’t been designed.
3) The prototypes they came up with are nearly impossible to build or don’t actually do the job. This article explains more:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.eng ... 17599.html

And so on.

The estimates provided for the cost are arrived at unreasonably. You can look for yourself at the two-year-old estimate that you see everyone citing.

http://fronterasdesk.org/sites/default/ ... 20Wall.pdf

It does not account for rework, complexities beyond the prototype design, factors to prevent flood and environmental hazard creation, engineering redesign... It’s going to be higher than $50bn. The contractors will hit the government with near CONSTANT change orders. “Cost overrun” will be the name of the game. It will not be completed in Trump’s lifetime.

I’m a structural forensicist, which means I’m called in when things go wrong. This is a project that WILL go wrong. When projects go wrong, the original estimates are just *obliterated*. And when that happens, good luck getting it fixed, because there aren’t that many forensicists out there to right the ship, particularly not that are willing to work on a border wall project— a large quotient of us are immigrants, and besides, we can’t afford to bid on jobs that are this political. We’re small firms, and we’re already busy, and we don’t gamble our reputations on political footballs. So you’d end up with a revolving door of contractors making a giant, uncoordinated muddle of things, and it’d generally be a mess. Good money after bad. The GAO agrees with me.

And it won’t be effective. I could, right now, purchase a 32 foot extension ladder and weld a cheap custom saddle for the top of the proposed wall so that I can get over it. I don’t know who they talked to about the wall design and its efficacy, but it sure as heck wasn’t anybody with any engineering imagination.

Another thing: we are not far from the day where inexpensive drones will be able to pick up and carry someone. This will happen in the next ten years, and it’s folly to think that the coyotes who ferry people over the border won’t purchase or create them. They’re low enough, quiet enough, and small enough to quickly zip people over any wall we could build undetected with our current monitoring setup.

Let’s have border security, by all means, but let’s be smart about it. This is not smart. It’s not effective. It’s NOT cheap. The returns will be diminishing as technology advances, too. This is a ridiculous idea that will never be successfully executed and, as such, would be a monumental waste of money.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by AZGrizFan »

Sounds like every other government clusterfuck in history. Costs 4-5x as much as anticipated and takes 5 times as long. So, nothing new there...

A few questions:
1) How does he know the contractors don't employ architects? I've never know a contractor who doesn't employ (or at least subcontract out) the design of projects to architects.
2) He admits the wall hasn't been designed, but then goes on to blast the design? How does he know it will impede the flow of water when it hasn't been designed (by his own admission)?
3) Does he REALLY think we're stupid enough to believe that this is the last $5B that's going to be needed?
4) I'll be honest and admit I didn't click on the 2nd link, but that first link is a great article. :nod: :nod:
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by 93henfan »

How did the Chinks prevent flooding with the Great Wall?

What did the environmental study say?
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Grizalltheway »

93henfan wrote:How did the Chinks prevent flooding with the Great Wall?

What did the environmental study say?
Does a major river border a good chunk of it?

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by 93henfan »

Grizalltheway wrote:
93henfan wrote:How did the Chinks prevent flooding with the Great Wall?

What did the environmental study say?
Does a major river border a good chunk of it?
Do your own research, Weetag™!
"In the seventh inning fans all get up and sing 'Take Me Out to the Ball Game,' and they're already there. It's really a stupid thing to say and I don't know who made 'em sing it. Why would somebody that's there get up and sing take me out to the ball game? The first person to do it must have been a moron." - Phillies color commentator Larry Andersen

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote:
mainejeff wrote:Declare a National Emergency if its such a **** problem!
Honest question, MJ: Doesn't the donks' about face on immigration and need for a wall give you ANY concern?
Honest answer: it's payback time pure and simple. And right or wrong, he went way out of his way to bring it on himself. Imagine being such an asshole that the CIA, FBI, and NSA would go so far as to cooperate with each other to ratfuck you. And the way Mueller set up Manafort..... :shock:
Subvert the dominant paradigm

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Grizalltheway »

93henfan wrote:
Grizalltheway wrote: Does a major river border a good chunk of it?
Do your own research, Weetag™!
The answer is no, so your question is irrelevant, Billy.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by Grizalltheway »

Also I want a cut of whatever you make using the WeeTag brand. :tothehand:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Post by mainejeff »

Chizzang wrote:
Bump!
This is really the conversation for the day regarding The Wall

:nod:
They're all going home for the weekend to watch AOC dancing videos and whack off.

:coffee:
Go Black Bears!

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