How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Political discussions

How long will the shutdown last?

Poll ended at Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:15 pm

Less than a week (open by Dec 28)
3
10%
1 to <2 weeks (open by Jan 4)
2
7%
2 to <3 weeks (open by Jan 11)
5
17%
3 to <4 weeks (open by Jan 18)
2
7%
4 to <5 weeks (open by Jan 25)
0
No votes
5 to <6 weeks (open by Feb 2)
3
10%
6 or more weeks
14
48%
 
Total votes: 29

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby houndawg » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:47 am

CID1990 wrote:
Grizalltheway wrote:Alright chumps, sit still for a minute and read this



He's right on many points

(it doesnt take an engineer to know it though)

Instead of a wall (since those are immoral) we could have a fence, patrolled by a CBP which is 20 times bigger

all we just have to do is create a hundred thousand new Federal workers! Democrat LOVE them some Federal workers

Done



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That part has already done been did :coffee:
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 89Hen » Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:36 pm

dbackjon wrote:
89Hen wrote:What's more amazing to me than the reversal of many of the Dem politicians on this one is the fact that I don't see many (if any) Dem supporters upset by it or even acknowledging it. It is undeniable. When you have videos of Schumer going on and on about the need for border security and the evils of illegal immigration.... :suspicious:

They funded border security. That funding is working. All stats show that it is working. Trump is trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist to the degree it does. He is wasting money on a solution that will be ineffective and environmentally destructive.

Democrats want border security. They have voted for border security. But not for a quarter mile clearing of US land through sensitive areas.


But that is not black and white, it requires thinking and understanding, which the right can't do.

:lol: You're such a shill.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby AZGrizFan » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:01 pm

dbackjon wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Who cares about 1/4 mile of clearing. There's wide swaths of the border up to EIGHTY FUCKING MILES into America that we can not go into because of activity of illegals and drug runners. Sacrificing 1/4 mile to get back that 80 mile stretch is well worth it.


I care. Many care. It clears and destroys some of the best habitat in South Texas, and creates a wildlife/migrational barrier. Wildlife viewing contributes billions of dollars to South Texas and southern Arizona yearly. Trump's folly will harm that.

And your wide swathes of the border that Americans can't go? BULLFUCKING SHIT. I have many friends that bird the border areas constantly. Never afraid to go down there. You are falling for more of Trump's and whatever extremist rightwing sites you frequent's lies.


I’ve seen the signs 60-80 miles deep into America. With my own two eyes, Jon. I’ve been there. I’ve seen the coyote trails and trash. It has nothing to do with any imaginary websites or anything Trump says. The fact that YOU want to ignore it can’t be helped. But it’s a true statement.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Grizalltheway » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:32 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
dbackjon wrote:
I care. Many care. It clears and destroys some of the best habitat in South Texas, and creates a wildlife/migrational barrier. Wildlife viewing contributes billions of dollars to South Texas and southern Arizona yearly. Trump's folly will harm that.

And your wide swathes of the border that Americans can't go? BULLFUCKING SHIT. I have many friends that bird the border areas constantly. Never afraid to go down there. You are falling for more of Trump's and whatever extremist rightwing sites you frequent's lies.


I’ve seen the signs 60-80 miles deep into America. With my own two eyes, Jon. I’ve been there. I’ve seen the coyote trails and trash. It has nothing to do with any imaginary websites or anything Trump says. The fact that YOU want to ignore it can’t be helped. But it’s a true statement.

And you accuse him of hyperventilating over the national parks? :lol:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby DSUrocks07 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:52 pm

dbackjon wrote:But that is not black and white



I think its been proven time and time again that "black and white" is all that the Dems care about :coffee:
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:12 am

Here’s are two honest questions:

1) Who thinks President Trump can allow the shutdown to continue for the length of his presidency?

2) who thinks Speaker Pelosi can allow the shutdown to continue for the length of Trump’s presidency?

If Trump is everything the left says he is (doesn’t care about anyone but himself, etc) then either the Dems will cave on the wall, or we will be shut down until 2020 at least
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:16 am

CID1990 wrote:Here’s are two honest questions:

1) Who thinks President Trump can allow the shutdown to continue for the length of his presidency?

2) who thinks Speaker Pelosi can allow the shutdown to continue for the length of Trump’s presidency?

If Trump is everything the left says he is (doesn’t care about anyone but himself, etc) then either the Dems will cave on the wall, or we will be shut down until 2020 at least


Yeah, that's not happening. The Coast Guard will go AWOL.

Lindsey Graham is on FauxNews right now, and he's speaking a bit of sense. He believes Trump's only way out is to reopen the Government contingent on a short window, say 3 weeks or 30 days, whereby Congress will either agree to a wall solution or he will declare emergency action. That will alleviate him of being accused of unilateral action. He can pin it on Pelosi.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Pwns » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:43 am

Why can't the donks just trick Trump into signing off on a wall plan that either would get shot down by a judge on a technicality or end up in limbo because it's deliberately under-budgeted in some way or even calls for some kind of building materials that don't exist?
We get the government we deserve. :nod:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby ∞∞∞ » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:47 am

Pwns wrote:Why can't the donks just trick Trump into signing off on a wall plan that either would get shot down by a judge on a technicality or end up in limbo because it's deliberately under-budgeted in some way or even calls for some kind of building materials that don't exist?

So you advocate trickery and deceit to run a government? :?

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:52 am

Ok if there was any reasonable doubt as to who is on the short end of the stick in terms of public opinion on this thing right now it's gone. The "gold standard" polling effort has weighed in and the Republicans are clearly underwater. As noted before, I pay particular attention to ABC News/Washington Post polls. To review: It is one of only 6 polls among the 396 graded by 538 to receive Grade A+. Among the A+ rated polls it has the smallest average departure from the actual results in political races (2.9 percentage points off one way or another on average). It has a very small bias (0 is no bias and it's got a 0.6 to the Democrat side).

Now it's reported results of a poll it conducted January 8 - 11. + or - 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

53 percent of respondents blamed Trump and the Republicans for the shutdown, 29 percent blamed Democrats, and 13 percent blamed both. Advantage Democrats.

79 percent said the shutdown will be either a crisis (38%) or a serious problem (41%) if it continues for several months. Only 19% said it would either be a minor problem (18%) or not a problem at all (1%). So the Rush Limbaugh argument that a government shutdown is no big deal is not gaining traction.

54% said they oppose building a wall along the US border with Mexico while 42% said they support doing it. So the Republicans are dug in on the basis of trying to do something most people don't want. Well...the "most people" thing is close because if you take the margin of error into account it could be 49.5% opposing. But best case scenario for the "build the wall" position taking the margin of error into account is 49.5% opposing and 46.5% supporting so it's underwater. And at the other extreme it could be as bad as 58.5% opposing vs. 37.5% supporting. "Build the wall" is not a position supported by the public.

The best news for Republicans is that, among respondents who oppose the wall or have no opinion on it, 45% think the Democrats should compromise vs. 48% think they should just outright refuse to fund it. That's a statistical tie. 52% of those that support the wall or have no opinion on it think Trump should demand wall funding vs. 41% who think he should compromise. However, it all works out to only 24% of ALL respondents thinking Trump should demand funding for the wall in the context of a situation in which, by a 25 percentage point margin, more blamed Trump and the Republicans for a shutdown that 79% think will be a crisis or a serious problem if it continues.

Things can change at any time. I've seen public opinion change rapidly before. But right now there is no question that the Democrats are winning the public relations battle. Or at least they were through January 11.

If you're interested the subject poll is at: https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/ ... 2019/2354/
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Col Hogan » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:11 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:Ok if there was any reasonable doubt as to who is on the short end of the stick in terms of public opinion on this thing right now it's gone. The "gold standard" polling effort has weighed in and the Republicans are clearly underwater. As noted before, I pay particular attention to ABC News/Washington Post polls. To review: It is one of only 6 polls among the 396 graded by 538 to receive Grade A+. Among the A+ rated polls it has the smallest average departure from the actual results in political races (2.9 percentage points off one way or another on average). It has a very small bias (0 is no bias and it's got a 0.6 to the Democrat side).

Now it's reported results of a poll it conducted January 8 - 11. + or - 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

53 percent of respondents blamed Trump and the Republicans for the shutdown, 29 percent blamed Democrats, and 13 percent blamed both. Advantage Democrats.

79 percent said the shutdown will be either a crisis (38%) or a serious problem (41%) if it continues for several months. Only 19% said it would either be a minor problem (18%) or not a problem at all (1%). So the Rush Limbaugh argument that a government shutdown is no big deal is not gaining traction.

54% said they oppose building a wall along the US border with Mexico while 42% said they support doing it. So the Republicans are dug in on the basis of trying to do something most people don't want. Well...the "most people" thing is close because if you take the margin of error into account it could be 49.5% opposing. But best case scenario for the "build the wall" position taking the margin of error into account is 49.5% opposing and 46.5% supporting so it's underwater. And at the other extreme it could be as bad as 58.5% opposing vs. 37.5% supporting. "Build the wall" is not a position supported by the public.

The best news for Republicans is that, among respondents who oppose the wall or have no opinion on it, 45% think the Democrats should compromise vs. 48% think they should just outright refuse to fund it. That's a statistical tie. 52% of those that support the wall or have no opinion on it think Trump should demand wall funding vs. 41% who think he should compromise. However, it all works out to only 24% of ALL respondents thinking Trump should demand funding for the wall in the context of a situation in which, by a 25 percentage point margin, more blamed Trump and the Republicans for a shutdown that 79% think will be a crisis or a serious problem if it continues.

Things can change at any time. I've seen public opinion change rapidly before. But right now there is no question that the Democrats are winning the public relations battle. Or at least they were through January 11.

If you're interested the subject poll is at: https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/ ... 2019/2354/


If you were around about 1774, you’d present the argument that a revolution against the British was wrong because most colonists were opposed...

If you were around in the 1850’s, you argue the abolitionists were wrong because most Northerners did not really support that radical idea...

You’d have been the guy in the late-1930’s who argued against strengthening the military because a majority of Americans were opposed to getting involved in any foreign issues...
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby SDHornet » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:27 pm

Col Hogan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:Ok if there was any reasonable doubt as to who is on the short end of the stick in terms of public opinion on this thing right now it's gone. The "gold standard" polling effort has weighed in and the Republicans are clearly underwater. As noted before, I pay particular attention to ABC News/Washington Post polls. To review: It is one of only 6 polls among the 396 graded by 538 to receive Grade A+. Among the A+ rated polls it has the smallest average departure from the actual results in political races (2.9 percentage points off one way or another on average). It has a very small bias (0 is no bias and it's got a 0.6 to the Democrat side).

Now it's reported results of a poll it conducted January 8 - 11. + or - 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

53 percent of respondents blamed Trump and the Republicans for the shutdown, 29 percent blamed Democrats, and 13 percent blamed both. Advantage Democrats.

79 percent said the shutdown will be either a crisis (38%) or a serious problem (41%) if it continues for several months. Only 19% said it would either be a minor problem (18%) or not a problem at all (1%). So the Rush Limbaugh argument that a government shutdown is no big deal is not gaining traction.

54% said they oppose building a wall along the US border with Mexico while 42% said they support doing it. So the Republicans are dug in on the basis of trying to do something most people don't want. Well...the "most people" thing is close because if you take the margin of error into account it could be 49.5% opposing. But best case scenario for the "build the wall" position taking the margin of error into account is 49.5% opposing and 46.5% supporting so it's underwater. And at the other extreme it could be as bad as 58.5% opposing vs. 37.5% supporting. "Build the wall" is not a position supported by the public.

The best news for Republicans is that, among respondents who oppose the wall or have no opinion on it, 45% think the Democrats should compromise vs. 48% think they should just outright refuse to fund it. That's a statistical tie. 52% of those that support the wall or have no opinion on it think Trump should demand wall funding vs. 41% who think he should compromise. However, it all works out to only 24% of ALL respondents thinking Trump should demand funding for the wall in the context of a situation in which, by a 25 percentage point margin, more blamed Trump and the Republicans for a shutdown that 79% think will be a crisis or a serious problem if it continues.

Things can change at any time. I've seen public opinion change rapidly before. But right now there is no question that the Democrats are winning the public relations battle. Or at least they were through January 11.

If you're interested the subject poll is at: https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/ ... 2019/2354/


If you were around about 1774, you’d present the argument that a revolution against the British was wrong because most colonists were opposed...

If you were around in the 1850’s, you argue the abolitionists were wrong because most Northerners did not really support that radical idea...

You’d have been the guy in the late-1930’s who argued against strengthening the military because a majority of Americans were opposed to getting involved in any foreign issues...

And just like that Hogan clubs JSO like a baby seal on a jap fishing boat. :rofl:

AZ and CID really ripping the tits off this thread.

Trump just needs to trade DACA for wall funding and when Pelosi and Shumer reject it, he wins bigly with Team Brown. :coffee:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Col Hogan » Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:05 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
dbackjon wrote:
I care. Many care. It clears and destroys some of the best habitat in South Texas, and creates a wildlife/migrational barrier. Wildlife viewing contributes billions of dollars to South Texas and southern Arizona yearly. Trump's folly will harm that.

And your wide swathes of the border that Americans can't go? BULLFUCKING ****. I have many friends that bird the border areas constantly. Never afraid to go down there. You are falling for more of Trump's and whatever extremist rightwing sites you frequent's lies.


I’ve seen the signs 60-80 miles deep into America. With my own two eyes, Jon. I’ve been there. I’ve seen the coyote trails and trash. It has nothing to do with any imaginary websites or anything Trump says. The fact that YOU want to ignore it can’t be helped. But it’s a true statement.


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This one was put up by the Obama Administration in 2010...
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:46 pm

SDHornet wrote:
Col Hogan wrote:
If you were around about 1774, you’d present the argument that a revolution against the British was wrong because most colonists were opposed...

If you were around in the 1850’s, you argue the abolitionists were wrong because most Northerners did not really support that radical idea...

You’d have been the guy in the late-1930’s who argued against strengthening the military because a majority of Americans were opposed to getting involved in any foreign issues...

And just like that Hogan clubs JSO like a baby seal on a jap fishing boat. :rofl:

AZ and CID really ripping the tits off this thread.

Trump just needs to trade DACA for wall funding and when Pelosi and Shumer reject it, he wins bigly with Team Brown. :coffee:


Except that I didn't say anything about right or wrong. I just said the Republicans are losing the public relations battle right now. And I'm correct.

Now, if you want to talk about right and wrong: I do think it's wrong for ANY President to do something like this. I thought it was wrong for Clinton to do it. I thought it was wrong for Obama to do it. It's an extortion tactic. And it's especially bad when the majority of the People don't even want to do what the President wants to do.

There's also the thing where Trump said Mexico was going to pay for it and wrote a memo with a specific plan about that.

If Trump wants his wall at this point he should straight up admit that it's not going to work out like he wanted. Mexico is not going to directly pay for it. Then he should make the case for why US taxpayers should pay for it, why we need one, etc. He shouldn't be doing this when it's not how he said it would happen and it's clear that a majority don't want a wall.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:54 pm

93henfan wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Here’s are two honest questions:

1) Who thinks President Trump can allow the shutdown to continue for the length of his presidency?

2) who thinks Speaker Pelosi can allow the shutdown to continue for the length of Trump’s presidency?

If Trump is everything the left says he is (doesn’t care about anyone but himself, etc) then either the Dems will cave on the wall, or we will be shut down until 2020 at least


Yeah, that's not happening. The Coast Guard will go AWOL.

Lindsey Graham is on FauxNews right now, and he's speaking a bit of sense. He believes Trump's only way out is to reopen the Government contingent on a short window, say 3 weeks or 30 days, whereby Congress will either agree to a wall solution or he will declare emergency action. That will alleviate him of being accused of unilateral action. He can pin it on Pelosi.


You mean, "Lindsey Graham is talking to Trump via Fox News"


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:27 pm

Libertarian Party organizing cleanups:

https://hotair.com/archives/2019/01/13/ ... -cleanups/


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:40 pm

CID1990 wrote:Libertarian Party organizing cleanups:

https://hotair.com/archives/2019/01/13/ ... -cleanups/


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:44 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Libertarian Party organizing cleanups:

https://hotair.com/archives/2019/01/13/ ... -cleanups/


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That might ratchet the LP vote totals up to 3.5% in 2020.


Here's Krugman with his frequent Jelly Straw Man:

http://reason.com/blog/2019/01/11/sorry ... ent-shutdo



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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:47 pm

CID1990 wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:That might ratchet the LP vote totals up to 3.5% in 2020.


Here's Krugman with his frequent Jelly Straw Man:

http://reason.com/blog/2019/01/11/sorry ... ent-shutdo



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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:49 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
Here's Krugman with his frequent Jelly Straw Man:

http://reason.com/blog/2019/01/11/sorry ... ent-shutdo



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Yeah, I saw that. It’s been all downhill for Krugman since his Nobel. Which cheapens the Nobel, when you think about it.


Well, he did actually DO something for his


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:50 pm

CID1990 wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:Yeah, I saw that. It’s been all downhill for Krugman since his Nobel. Which cheapens the Nobel, when you think about it.


Well, he did actually DO something for his


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Fair point.

But Obama.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:56 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
Well, he did actually DO something for his


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Fair point.

But Obama.


And the point is....


Nobody cheapens the Nobel more than the Nobel committee itself

One could actually make an argument for Krugman


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:00 pm

CID1990 wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:Fair point.

But Obama.


And the point is....


Nobody cheapens the Nobel more than the Nobel committee itself

One could actually make an argument for Krugman


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:01 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
And the point is....


Nobody cheapens the Nobel more than the Nobel committee itself

One could actually make an argument for Krugman


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Why Krugman became a political hack has always puzzled me. There must have been an easier way for him to make a buck.



There's an easier way at the NYT?


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:03 pm

CID1990 wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:Why Krugman became a political hack has always puzzled me. There must have been an easier way for him to make a buck.



There's an easier way at the NYT?


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No. I was thinking consulting for Bain or someone. NYT pays dick.
Anything I post passes any rational test. — John StOnge 7/12/19


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