2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[Baldy]

Unless they go to jail, then they can still vote.

Did I get that right?

I can support non violent offenders like someone serving time for smoking weed getting their right to vote.


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Virtually nobody is serving time for *just smoking weed*.

[JohnStOnge]

The cliff notes are

"Here's a poll. Trump is weak."

Correct. And we have another example released today. The headline for the poll at https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/02/politics ... index.html is "CNN Poll: Trump's approval rating on the economy hits a new high."

Yet the same poll had respondents saying they would vote as follows in matchups between six potential Democrats and Trump:

Sanders 50%, Trump 44%
Biden 51%, Trump 45%
Buttigieg 47%, Trump 44%
Harris 49%, Trump 45%
Warren 47%, Trump 48%
O'Rourke 52%, Trump 42%

So Trump had the highest approval rating on the economy yet among respondents in this poll but he trailed among respondents with respect to 5 of the 6 Democrat candidate respondents were asked about. And he only led by 1 percentage point vs. the other one.

He's a very beatable candidate. Whoever the Democrats nominate is going to have a reasonable shot. And if the inevitable downturn in the economy happens before the election he is toast.

[JohnStOnge]

I would say, considering JSOs history, that yes he made a significantly "new" post.

He gets a gold star.

Disagree. He pulls out a marginally newer poll, from a source he always uses, to make the same point he’s belabored dozens of times.

I use many polls. But the ABC News/Washington Post poll is one I watch for because it is a very good poll. It's got a very small simple average error as well as a very small bias. That's based on how it's actually performed historically. It's also rated A+ by 538 and I do think 538 people know what they are doing in terms of rating polls.

[JohnStOnge]

I must have hit a nerve with the straight white guy.

Not at all - I’m just wondering why you’re so scared

I don't know if "scared" is the right word but I can understand why someone supporting the homosexual agenda would be concerned about Trump. Trump depends heavily on the White Evangelical Christian vote. That group voted for him by an estimated 80% to 14% while the rest of the electorate voted for Clinton by an estimated 60% to 34%. He's got NO chance without overwhelming support among White Evangelical Christians. That's not a good sign for people supporting the homosexual agenda.

[mainejeff]

O'Rourke 52%, Trump 42%

Good grief.....America is full of dummies.

[Ivytalk]

Not at all - I’m just wondering why you’re so scared

I don't know if "scared" is the right word but I can understand why someone supporting the homosexual agenda would be concerned about Trump. Trump depends heavily on the White Evangelical Christian vote. That group voted for him by an estimated 80% to 14% while the rest of the electorate voted for Clinton by an estimated 60% to 34%. He's got NO chance without overwhelming support among White Evangelical Christians. That's not a good sign for people supporting the homosexual agenda.

“The homosexual agenda”?

Guess you won’t vote for Buttigieg over Trump, then.

[JohnStOnge]

Here's another thing that should worry Republicans: Texas could be in play in 2020. This one depends on who the Democrat candidate is. But check this out:

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.c ... ic-primary

It has Texas respondents narrowly favoring Biden over Trump by 50% to 49% and even at 50% to 50% between Trump and O'Rourke. And they favored Trump over Sanders by only 51% to 49%.

That poll was taken April 25 - 28. You can see that the basic "It's close in Texas between those three and Trump" situation was reflected in another poll taken during February by looking at these three links:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6818.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6822.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6819.html

What we're seeing in Texas is significant. I guarantee you that you would have to go back to the 1970s to see a situation in which the presumptive Republican candidate polled like that at this point in Texas.

[BDKJMU]

Unless they go to jail, then they can still vote.

Did I get that right?

I can support non violent offenders like someone serving time for smoking weed getting their right to vote.

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That can’t be very many people..

Edit-I see Baldy above:

Virtually nobody is serving time for *just smoking weed*.

had already beat me to it.

[mainejeff]

Here's another thing that should worry Republicans: Texas could be in play in 2020. This one depends on who the Democrat candidate is. But check this out:

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.c ... ic-primary

It has Texas respondents narrowly favoring Biden over Trump by 50% to 49% and even at 50% to 50% between Trump and O'Rourke. And they favored Trump over Sanders by only 51% to 49%.

That poll was taken April 25 - 28. You can see that the basic "It's close in Texas between those three and Trump" situation was reflected in another poll taken during February by looking at these three links:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6818.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6822.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6819.html

What we're seeing in Texas is significant. I guarantee you that you would have to go back to the 1970s to see a situation in which the presumptive Republican candidate polled like that at this point in Texas.

If the Republicans lose Texas.....they are toast for the foreseeable future.

[Gil Dobie]

Here's another thing that should worry Republicans: Texas could be in play in 2020. This one depends on who the Democrat candidate is. But check this out:

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.c ... ic-primary

It has Texas respondents narrowly favoring Biden over Trump by 50% to 49% and even at 50% to 50% between Trump and O'Rourke. And they favored Trump over Sanders by only 51% to 49%.

That poll was taken April 25 - 28. You can see that the basic "It's close in Texas between those three and Trump" situation was reflected in another poll taken during February by looking at these three links:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6818.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6822.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6819.html

What we're seeing in Texas is significant. I guarantee you that you would have to go back to the 1970s to see a situation in which the presumptive Republican candidate polled like that at this point in Texas.

If the Republicans lose Texas.....they are toast for the foreseeable future.

Dems just need a decent person to run, for that to happen.

[mainejeff]

If the Republicans lose Texas.....they are toast for the foreseeable future.

Dems just need a decent person to run, for that to happen.

Yes, I know. You hold the Democrats to a higher standard than Republicans.

[Ibanez]

I can support non violent offenders like someone serving time for smoking weed getting their right to vote.

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That can’t be very many people..

Edit-I see Baldy above:

Virtually nobody is serving time for *just smoking weed*.

had already beat me to it.

Who cares about quantity? And congrats on ignoring the point.

[Baldy]

That can’t be very many people..

Edit-I see Baldy above:

had already beat me to it.

Who cares about quantity? And congrats on ignoring the point.

I understand the point. You just used a bad example.

I don't have a problem with ex-cons earning back their privilege to vote, but if their current address includes the words state or federal penitentiary then no.

[AZGrizFan]

Here's another thing that should worry Republicans: Texas could be in play in 2020. This one depends on who the Democrat candidate is. But check this out:

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.c ... ic-primary

It has Texas respondents narrowly favoring Biden over Trump by 50% to 49% and even at 50% to 50% between Trump and O'Rourke. And they favored Trump over Sanders by only 51% to 49%.

That poll was taken April 25 - 28. You can see that the basic "It's close in Texas between those three and Trump" situation was reflected in another poll taken during February by looking at these three links:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6818.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6822.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6819.html

What we're seeing in Texas is significant. I guarantee you that you would have to go back to the 1970s to see a situation in which the presumptive Republican candidate polled like that at this point in Texas.

John, do you want to place a wager on how many points Trump wins Texas by? I say minimum 51.5/48.5 and I'll take the over. Name your price. Put your money where your polls are.

[AZGrizFan]

He's a very beatable candidate. Whoever the Democrats nominate is going to have a reasonable shot. And if the inevitable downturn in the economy happens before the election he is toast.

There's John again, rooting for the country to fail.

[BDKJMU]

Maybe we should start a new poll on which of the 21 announced Donk candidates will get out first, now that Biden is in. Probably one of the nimrods like Inslee or Swalwell or Yang who never should have gotten in to begin with.

Trump is probably shitting his pants right now, with Biden in and the legal wolves howling after his business records. He can’t pull that “Little Marco” or “Lyin’ Ted” crap on Biden.

But does Biden bring out the voters? He's still a really old white man (he'll be over 80 by the time his term is over) who's been in government for close to 50 years. He's the epitome of Democratic Party establishment. Does that excite voters? I agree, he'll do better in the Trump baiting stuff than other candidates, but will he excite people enough to come out and vote? Kerry went with the "not Bush" style and Romney went with the "not Obama" style and neither of them are former Presidents now.

He would be running for re election for a 2nd term (if he lived that long), entering office at 81, 85 (if he lived that long) by the end of a 2nd term. Before anyone says he wouldn’t have any intention of running for a 2nd term, EVERYBODY who doesn’t die in office runs for a 2nd term. Unless I missed someone, you have to go all the way back to the late 1800s and at least Grover Cleveland to find someone who didn’t die in office, and didn’t run for a 2nd term. And since Cleveland had already had 2 non consecutive terms, he probably shouldn’t count, so you’d have to go back further.

So with Biden we have someone running to be POTUS from age 77 to age 85.

[SunCoastBlueHen]

Joe's too old. He really is starting to look like Bob Barker.

[css75]

Unless they go to jail, then they can still vote.

Did I get that right?

I can support non violent offenders like someone serving time for smoking weed getting their right to vote.


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Misdemeanors do not lose voting rights, only felons.


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[css75]

Disagree. He pulls out a marginally newer poll, from a source he always uses, to make the same point he’s belabored dozens of times.

I use many polls. But the ABC News/Washington Post poll is one I watch for because it is a very good poll. It's got a very small simple average error as well as a very small bias. That's based on how it's actually performed historically. It's also rated A+ by 538 and I do think 538 people know what they are doing in terms of rating polls.

JSO, Trump hasn’t started his campaign yet. Wait till he dissects their policies, he will win bigger than last time. People don’t know these nitwits running for the Dems.


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[kalm]

I use many polls. But the ABC News/Washington Post poll is one I watch for because it is a very good poll. It's got a very small simple average error as well as a very small bias. That's based on how it's actually performed historically. It's also rated A+ by 538 and I do think 538 people know what they are doing in terms of rating polls.

JSO, Trump hasn’t started his campaign yet. Wait till he dissects their policies, he will win bigger than last time. People don’t know these nitwits running for the Dems.


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Who knows them?

[CID1990]

I use many polls. But the ABC News/Washington Post poll is one I watch for because it is a very good poll. It's got a very small simple average error as well as a very small bias. That's based on how it's actually performed historically. It's also rated A+ by 538 and I do think 538 people know what they are doing in terms of rating polls.

JSO, Trump hasn’t started his campaign yet. Wait till he dissects their policies, he will win bigger than last time. People don’t know these nitwits running for the Dems.


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Trump hasn’t stopped campaigning since he took office. That’s one of the few similarities he has with Obama.


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[JohnStOnge]

I don't know if "scared" is the right word but I can understand why someone supporting the homosexual agenda would be concerned about Trump. Trump depends heavily on the White Evangelical Christian vote. That group voted for him by an estimated 80% to 14% while the rest of the electorate voted for Clinton by an estimated 60% to 34%. He's got NO chance without overwhelming support among White Evangelical Christians. That's not a good sign for people supporting the homosexual agenda.

“The homosexual agenda”?

Guess you won’t vote for Buttigieg over Trump, then.

Sure I would. He's clearly a better choice. Won't make a difference because I'll be voting in Louisiana but hell yes I'd vote for Buttigieg if the choice is him or Trump.

[JohnStOnge]

I use many polls. But the ABC News/Washington Post poll is one I watch for because it is a very good poll. It's got a very small simple average error as well as a very small bias. That's based on how it's actually performed historically. It's also rated A+ by 538 and I do think 538 people know what they are doing in terms of rating polls.

JSO, Trump hasn’t started his campaign yet. Wait till he dissects their policies, he will win bigger than last time. People don’t know these nitwits running for the Dems.


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Trump can't "dissect" anything. He's an idiot. He won last time because Hillary had so much baggage. The FBI investigation thing was particulary big. If she'd never done that e mail server thing she'd have blown him out. Everybody knows, for example, what Bernie Sanders is about policy wise. There's no mystery. But Sanders has consistenly outpolled Trump. He outpolled him as long as he was in the race during the 2016 campaign and he's been outpolling him as people have looked at the upcoming 2018 season.

It is virtually certain that Trump will lose the popular vote again. The only question is whether or not he can hang onto the extremely narrow margins he had in a few key States.

And he could even lose Texas depending on who the Democrat nominee is. If I had to bet I'd be "no." But I would not be shocked, if Biden or O'Rourke or even Sanders wins the Democrat nomination, if Texas ends up in the Democrat column this time.

[mainejeff]

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia.....could render Michigan & Wisconsin obsolete.

[SeattleGriz]

Why won't Biden speak to the press? Is he afraid to stick his foot in his mouth?