2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[SDHornet]

Agreed. The Dems have taken a sharp left turn and they’ve boost their collective minds.


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Yet Trump is clearly down in polls to the top potential Democratic candidates. Like the results of the most recent Fox News poll:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... and-harris

Bear in mind that Trump won the Electoral College when polls generally showed him down by 3 to 4 points to Clinton in the popular vote (he lost that by 2.1 percentage points). That Fox News poll shows him as down by 12 percentage points to Biden at the high end and down by 6 percentage points to Warren at the low end. It has him down to far-left Sanders by 9 percentage points.

And at this point I don't think there are too many people among those polled who don't realize that Sanders is a leftist.

A polls says Trump won't win? When did we hear that before?

[JohnStOnge]

Yet Trump is clearly down in polls to the top potential Democratic candidates. Like the results of the most recent Fox News poll:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... and-harris

Bear in mind that Trump won the Electoral College when polls generally showed him down by 3 to 4 points to Clinton in the popular vote (he lost that by 2.1 percentage points). That Fox News poll shows him as down by 12 percentage points to Biden at the high end and down by 6 percentage points to Warren at the low end. It has him down to far-left Sanders by 9 percentage points.

And at this point I don't think there are too many people among those polled who don't realize that Sanders is a leftist.

A polls says Trump won't win? When did we hear that before?

As I've posted many times before, the polls did not say Clinton was a lock to win. They said she was likely to win the popular vote but the Electoral vote was too close to call. We don't have a lot of State by State polls right now. But what we do have are polls that show the top Democrat candidates farther ahead of Trump than Clinton was in the popular vote.

You can believe that someone can win the Electoral vote when they lose the popular vote by something like 6 percentage points. And it IS possible.

But, on the overwhelming majority of occasions, the candidate that won the popular vote also won the Electoral vote. Also, the 2016 election is the most "disconcordant" election of our history in terms of one candidate winning the popular vote while the other candidate wins the Electoral vote. And the candidate that won the popular vote won it by only 2.1 percentage points.

Things can change. But the current polls do not portend well for Trump. And if things do change we will probably see that reflected in the polls. If he does win it's not likely he's going to do so if the polls immediately prior to the election show him as being where he is right now.

[css75]

A polls says Trump won't win? When did we hear that before?

As I've posted many times before, the polls did not say Clinton was a lock to win. They said she was likely to win the popular vote but the Electoral vote was too close to call. We don't have a lot of State by State polls right now. But what we do have are polls that show the top Democrat candidates farther ahead of Trump than Clinton was in the popular vote.

You can believe that someone can win the Electoral vote when they lose the popular vote by something like 6 percentage points. And it IS possible.

But, on the overwhelming majority of occasions, the candidate that won the popular vote also won the Electoral vote. Also, the 2016 election is the most "disconcordant" election of our history in terms of one candidate winning the popular vote while the other candidate wins the Electoral vote. And the candidate that won the popular vote won it by only 2.1 percentage points.

Things can change. But the current polls do not portend well for Trump. And if things do change we will probably see that reflected in the polls. If he does win it's not likely he's going to do so if the polls immediately prior to the election show him as being where he is right now.

Polls don’t mean anything now, it is well over a year before the election. Primaries haven’t even started yet. This like doing a top 25 for the 2020 football season now.


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[kalm]

A polls says Trump won't win? When did we hear that before?

As I've posted many times before, the polls did not say Clinton was a lock to win. They said she was likely to win the popular vote but the Electoral vote was too close to call. We don't have a lot of State by State polls right now. But what we do have are polls that show the top Democrat candidates farther ahead of Trump than Clinton was in the popular vote.

You can believe that someone can win the Electoral vote when they lose the popular vote by something like 6 percentage points. And it IS possible.

But, on the overwhelming majority of occasions, the candidate that won the popular vote also won the Electoral vote. Also, the 2016 election is the most "disconcordant" election of our history in terms of one candidate winning the popular vote while the other candidate wins the Electoral vote. And the candidate that won the popular vote won it by only 2.1 percentage points.

Things can change. But the current polls do not portend well for Trump. And if things do change we will probably see that reflected in the polls. If he does win it's not likely he's going to do so if the polls immediately prior to the election show him as being where he is right now.

This one is also interesting. Trump smoked Hillary with independents who held their nose.

To be sure, Clinton’s unpopularity increased massively as the 2016 campaign progressed. And once the Democratic Party settles on a standard-bearer, Trump and his allies will do everything in their power to turn him or her radioactive. Still, the president and Fox News have both already hit Warren pretty hard. And Bernie Sanders has been a nationally renowned, self-avowed socialist for nearly four years now. The fact that both those candidates still have solidly positive approval ratings — even after turning in nationally televised debate performances that multiple New York Times columnists deemed politically suicidal — suggests that the president may have a harder time sliming his Democratic adversary in 2020 than he did last time around.

But for Trump, the most alarming takeaway from Fox’s survey may be this: Even if the president does manage to turn the Democratic nominee’s favorability steeply negative, he could still lose in a rout. In 2016, Trump won voters who disapproved of both major-party candidates by 50 to 39 percent margin in national exit polls. Respondents who disliked both Biden and Trump in Fox’s poll favored the Democrat over the president by a whopping 43 to 10 percent margin.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/ ... _medium=s1

[Ivytalk]

As I've posted many times before, the polls did not say Clinton was a lock to win. They said she was likely to win the popular vote but the Electoral vote was too close to call. We don't have a lot of State by State polls right now. But what we do have are polls that show the top Democrat candidates farther ahead of Trump than Clinton was in the popular vote.

You can believe that someone can win the Electoral vote when they lose the popular vote by something like 6 percentage points. And it IS possible.

But, on the overwhelming majority of occasions, the candidate that won the popular vote also won the Electoral vote. Also, the 2016 election is the most "disconcordant" election of our history in terms of one candidate winning the popular vote while the other candidate wins the Electoral vote. And the candidate that won the popular vote won it by only 2.1 percentage points.

Things can change. But the current polls do not portend well for Trump. And if things do change we will probably see that reflected in the polls. If he does win it's not likely he's going to do so if the polls immediately prior to the election show him as being where he is right now.

This one is also interesting. Trump smoked Hillary with independents who held their nose.

To be sure, Clinton’s unpopularity increased massively as the 2016 campaign progressed. And once the Democratic Party settles on a standard-bearer, Trump and his allies will do everything in their power to turn him or her radioactive. Still, the president and Fox News have both already hit Warren pretty hard. And Bernie Sanders has been a nationally renowned, self-avowed socialist for nearly four years now. The fact that both those candidates still have solidly positive approval ratings — even after turning in nationally televised debate performances that multiple New York Times columnists deemed politically suicidal — suggests that the president may have a harder time sliming his Democratic adversary in 2020 than he did last time around.

But for Trump, the most alarming takeaway from Fox’s survey may be this: Even if the president does manage to turn the Democratic nominee’s favorability steeply negative, he could still lose in a rout. In 2016, Trump won voters who disapproved of both major-party candidates by 50 to 39 percent margin in national exit polls. Respondents who disliked both Biden and Trump in Fox’s poll favored the Democrat over the president by a whopping 43 to 10 percent margin.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/ ... _medium=s1

Now that’s an interesting stat! Waiting for BDK’s standard “the election is over a year away polls mean nothing” response in 3-2-1...

[kalm]

This one is also interesting. Trump smoked Hillary with independents who held their nose.



http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/ ... _medium=s1

Now that’s an interesting stat! Waiting for BDK’s standard “the election is over a year away polls mean nothing” response in 3-2-1...

I had the exact same thought as I was posting this. "Pre-general election stats are about as worthless as tits on a boar" ...or something like that.

[CID1990]

Trump won because he was the least vile option

He won’t have that advantage in the next election

Unless the Dem primary produces someone other than Biden


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[Gil Dobie]

Dems are going to get their old White man in Biden, unless schit happens.

[GannonFan]

Dems are going to get their old White man in Biden, unless schit happens.

Still hard to see how Biden doesn't get the nomination. I think Warren is picking up a lot of steam, but it's mainly among the white SJW crowd, but that segment is already splintered between her, Bernie, and a host of other candidates. I'm not sure she's going to get enough of the Black vote in the southern states and elsewhere, which Biden will get, to stop him from getting to the nomination. It's basically the same way that Hillary got the nomination over Sanders. It's hard to beat the party establishment, especially in the Democratic party, and this time around Biden is that guy. I wonder if Warren would take the VP nomination if it was offered. Interesting, without checking, it could be the first time ever that the President and VP on one party's ticket were both at least 70 years old (Biden would be 78 when he takes office if he wins and Warren would be 71). Still think Joe would go with Harris though.

[Ivytalk]

Dems are going to get their old White man in Biden, unless schit happens.

Still hard to see how Biden doesn't get the nomination. I think Warren is picking up a lot of steam, but it's mainly among the white SJW crowd, but that segment is already splintered between her, Bernie, and a host of other candidates. I'm not sure she's going to get enough of the Black vote in the southern states and elsewhere, which Biden will get, to stop him from getting to the nomination. It's basically the same way that Hillary got the nomination over Sanders. It's hard to beat the party establishment, especially in the Democratic party, and this time around Biden is that guy. I wonder if Warren would take the VP nomination if it was offered. Interesting, without checking, it could be the first time ever that the President and VP on one party's ticket were both at least 70 years old (Biden would be 78 when he takes office if he wins and Warren would be 71). Still think Joe would go with Harris though.

Joe has to take Harris to make sure the Indian/Jamaican vote gets out.

[Ibanez]

Still hard to see how Biden doesn't get the nomination. I think Warren is picking up a lot of steam, but it's mainly among the white SJW crowd, but that segment is already splintered between her, Bernie, and a host of other candidates. I'm not sure she's going to get enough of the Black vote in the southern states and elsewhere, which Biden will get, to stop him from getting to the nomination. It's basically the same way that Hillary got the nomination over Sanders. It's hard to beat the party establishment, especially in the Democratic party, and this time around Biden is that guy. I wonder if Warren would take the VP nomination if it was offered. Interesting, without checking, it could be the first time ever that the President and VP on one party's ticket were both at least 70 years old (Biden would be 78 when he takes office if he wins and Warren would be 71). Still think Joe would go with Harris though.

Joe has to take Harris to make sure the Indian/Jamaican vote gets out.

I'd love to see a Biden/Buttigieg ticket.

[GannonFan]

Joe has to take Harris to make sure the Indian/Jamaican vote gets out.

I'd love to see a Biden/Buttigieg ticket.

I'd put that at about 0.1% chance of happening. Buttigieg (whom I like btw) isn't going to be more than the 4th or 5th place person when this all shakes out. And there's no way the Democrats put out a ticket with two white males on it, regardless of the diversity elsewhere between them (i.e. the age and sexual orientation). If Biden is the nominee, the VP will have to be a woman and preferably a woman of color. That's why it will likely be Harris over Warren (the age gap is important too - Harris is still in her 50's).

[CID1990]

I'd love to see a Biden/Buttigieg ticket.

I'd put that at about 0.1% chance of happening. Buttigieg (whom I like btw) isn't going to be more than the 4th or 5th place person when this all shakes out. And there's no way the Democrats put out a ticket with two white males on it, regardless of the diversity elsewhere between them (i.e. the age and sexual orientation). If Biden is the nominee, the VP will have to be a woman and preferably a woman of color. That's why it will likely be Harris over Warren (the age gap is important too - Harris is still in her 50's).

Not to mention the fact that you just KNOW Biden hates Warren’s guts. She’s transparently artificial.


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[Ivytalk]

Joe has to take Harris to make sure the Indian/Jamaican vote gets out.

I'd love to see a Biden/Buttigieg ticket.

Why? Queer Eye for the Straight Guy?

[SDHornet]

Trump won because he was the least vile option

He won’t have that advantage in the next election

Unless the Dem primary produces someone other than Biden


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Well lately there have been some headlines questioning Bidens sanity/mental capacity...which is ironic given that is/was one of the narratives used to attack Trump.

[CID1990]

Trump won because he was the least vile option

He won’t have that advantage in the next election

Unless the Dem primary produces someone other than Biden


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Well lately there have been some headlines questioning Bidens sanity/mental capacity...which is ironic given that is/was one of the narratives used to attack Trump.

He does appear to have slowed down a bit mentally

And we all know that that long slide into soft food and diapers can happen quickly once it begins

But a senile doddering old Joe is still preferable to anyone else in that field except maybe Buttigieg. Joe’s VP pick might well be a Presidential pick


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[SDHornet]

Well lately there have been some headlines questioning Bidens sanity/mental capacity...which is ironic given that is/was one of the narratives used to attack Trump.

He does appear to have slowed down a bit mentally

And we all know that that long slide into soft food and diapers can happen quickly once it begins

But a senile doddering old Joe is still preferable to anyone else in that field except maybe Buttigieg. Joe’s VP pick might well be a Presidential pick


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I think they go Harris for the women and minority angle. Plus the corporate donks love her. Going with a white guy on the ticket won't make much sense in this era of SJW hysteria.

[CID1990]

He does appear to have slowed down a bit mentally

And we all know that that long slide into soft food and diapers can happen quickly once it begins

But a senile doddering old Joe is still preferable to anyone else in that field except maybe Buttigieg. Joe’s VP pick might well be a Presidential pick


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I think they go Harris for the women and minority angle. Plus the corporate donks love her. Going with a white guy on the ticket won't make much sense in this era of SJW hysteria.

2024 election:

Harris/Ocasio-Cortez crushed by Amash/Crenshaw

This is teeing up nicely


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[GannonFan]

Not to mention the fact that you just KNOW Biden hates Warren’s guts. She’s transparently artificial.


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Her personality might be artificial but her passion is real. Biden is just the opposite.

I don't think Warren is artificial at all - I think she genuinely is that goofy. I think Biden's real as well - its tough to put up an act (personality or passion) for the 50 years he's been in politics. That's who he is.

[AZGrizFan]

Literally every single one of the candidates has leapt across the threshold and are miles away from it.

Any ONE of these would be kooky enough...but they’ve bought in on every SINGLE one!:

Reparations for blacks
Reparations for gays
Green new deal
Open borders
Roll back of tax cuts
Abolish ICE
Voting rights for illegals
Omar/Cortez/Thalib and the “face of the left”
Literally EVERYTHING is racism
Socialism over capitalism
...and the list goes on

Reparations for gays? Wow....where do I sign up? Everyone else in this country gets entitlements (especially RED state folks these days!). I may as well join in the fun.

The only reason they are talking about most of this stuff is because the Extreme Right Facists/Racists keep pushing this country to the Far Right.

If by "far right" you mean

Record low unemployment (even for those minorities we supposedly hate)
Record high stock market (even for the proletariat, 70% of whom have 401k's invested in it)
honest days work for an honest days pay (a world where you actually get to KEEP more of your paycheck)
secure borders with a functioning ICE/DNS
tax cuts for the working class and small business owners
voting rights for citizens only (w/ID required)
shooting down socialism/communism
full support for the constitution and ALL the amendments
and shutting the "PC" generation up

Then yes, we're pushing it far right. If you keep pushing policies that will make the rest of America end up looking like LA, NY SF or Portland you're gonna get some push back. Nay, a SHITLOAD of pushback.

Division BROUGHT us Trump. Trump did not bring division. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

[CID1990]

Her personality might be artificial but her passion is real. Biden is just the opposite.

I don't think Warren is artificial at all - I think she genuinely is that goofy. I think Biden's real as well - its tough to put up an act (personality or passion) for the 50 years he's been in politics. That's who he is.

There’s no way she’s genuinely that breathless

She’d have to breathe into a paper bag half the time if that moaning was her default state

I know a guy who had Obama for a law class at U of Chicago - he was exactly the same in a classroom as his public persona. I’ll bet a dollar to the nickel Warren had a completely different persona offline. What she does now is Hillary’s southern accent


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[Skjellyfetti]

I don't think Warren is artificial at all - I think she genuinely is that goofy. I think Biden's real as well - its tough to put up an act (personality or passion) for the 50 years he's been in politics. That's who he is.

There’s no way she’s genuinely that breathless

She’d have to breathe into a paper bag half the time if that moaning was her default state

I know a guy who had Obama for a law class at U of Chicago - he was exactly the same in a classroom as his public persona. I’ll bet a dollar to the nickel Warren had a completely different persona offline. What she does now is Hillary’s southern accent


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Because another President would have realized it wasn't going to happen immediately after he got done spacing out on the shitter.

[Ivytalk]

I don't think Warren is artificial at all - I think she genuinely is that goofy. I think Biden's real as well - its tough to put up an act (personality or passion) for the 50 years he's been in politics. That's who he is.

There’s no way she’s genuinely that breathless

She’d have to breathe into a paper bag half the time if that moaning was her default state

I know a guy who had Obama for a law class at U of Chicago - he was exactly the same in a classroom as his public persona. I’ll bet a dollar to the nickel Warren had a completely different persona offline. What she does now is Hillary’s southern accent


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Her accent is Okie, not Southern. But like southern/southwestern women of a certain age who have lived in the North for a long time, she milks that accent for all it’s worth.

[CID1990]

There’s no way she’s genuinely that breathless

She’d have to breathe into a paper bag half the time if that moaning was her default state

I know a guy who had Obama for a law class at U of Chicago - he was exactly the same in a classroom as his public persona. I’ll bet a dollar to the nickel Warren had a completely different persona offline. What she does now is Hillary’s southern accent


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Her accent is Okie, not Southern. But like southern/southwestern women of a certain age who have lived in the North for a long time, she milks that accent for all it’s worth.

I’m talking about the contrivance, not the accent itself.


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[AZGrizFan]

There’s no way she’s genuinely that breathless

She’d have to breathe into a paper bag half the time if that moaning was her default state

I know a guy who had Obama for a law class at U of Chicago - he was exactly the same in a classroom as his public persona. I’ll bet a dollar to the nickel Warren had a completely different persona offline. What she does now is Hillary’s southern accent


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Because another President would have realized it wasn't going to happen immediately after he got done spacing out on the shitter.

Wrong thread bro?