2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:00 am

houndawg wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
The last one is the interesting one.

Right now, the candidates are simply “not Trump”

But if the Dems nominate anyone other than Biden, the gap is going to close within the margin of error, and Trump will win the rust belt states again

Because the socialist label will stick easily to any of them except Biden


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby CID1990 » Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:10 am

houndawg wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
The last one is the interesting one.

Right now, the candidates are simply “not Trump”

But if the Dems nominate anyone other than Biden, the gap is going to close within the margin of error, and Trump will win the rust belt states again

Because the socialist label will stick easily to any of them except Biden


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They're lazy deadbeat scum and they better to piss in a cup before they get one single cent in handouts from my hard-earned taxes.


Oh yes

Gonna spread your paltry wealth all over the place


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby CID1990 » Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:13 pm

Biden is still chugging along:

https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrisse ... ps-keepin/



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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Skjellyfetti » Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:24 pm

You've been posting a metric fuckton of HotAir articles :?
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Cid1990 wrote:It is going to be a sad day for a lot of people when all that comes of all of this is Flynn getting whacked.

Mueller is going to take a beating on the left before this business is over

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby CID1990 » Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:36 pm

Skjellyfetti wrote:You've been posting a metric **** of HotAir articles :?


And you posted a metric ton of conspiracy theory, Reek

HotAir does very good poll analysis


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby SDHornet » Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:19 pm

CID1990 wrote:
Skjellyfetti wrote:You've been posting a metric **** of HotAir articles :?


And you posted a metric ton of conspiracy theory, Reek

HotAir does very good poll analysis


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Did jellybelly really just question someone for posting questionable sources? Bwahahahaah

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby houndawg » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:39 am

CID1990 wrote:
houndawg wrote:

They're lazy deadbeat scum and they better to piss in a cup before they get one single cent in handouts from my hard-earned taxes.


Oh yes

Gonna spread your paltry wealth all over the place


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It may look paltry from up on the gubmint gravy train but its a lifetime of hard work to me. :thumb:
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby houndawg » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:41 am

CID1990 wrote:Biden is still chugging along:

https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrisse ... ps-keepin/



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He's Trump's chance to keep turnout down.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Jul 21, 2019 5:49 am

Just for fun I used the series of Economist YouGov polls to get an idea as to which of the issues the poll addresses are good for Trump and the Republicans and which are good for the Democrats. You can access the series of polls by going to https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6179.html and scrolling down.

I used the most recent 6 polls because 6 is the minimum number I needed to potentially develop "statistical significance." I also applied a trend test to check and see if it was reasonable to treat it as a static situation. It was. Very little suggestion of Trump doing better or worse over the time frame covered with respect to any issue. Maybe something there with the economy. But if the situation improved there for him it wasn't by much. He was 10 points up in the Approval minus Disapproval number (53% Approve minus 43% Disapprove) among registered voter respondents to the June 9 - 11 poll and 11 points up (52% Approve minus 41% Disapprove) among registered voter respondents to the July 14 - 16 poll.

The table below shows how it worked out. Issues are ranked in order of how well Trump did with respect to each. Black numbers mean he was in positive territory and red numbers means he was in negative territory. Blue shading indicates a "statistically significant" result. If it's blue shaded and black you can be more than 95% confident he's in positive territory with the population of registered voters. If it's blue shaded and red you can be more than 95% confident he's in negative territory with respect to that population.

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As an aside: The Democrats appear to enjoy an intensity advantage in that, with respect to every issue, looking at Trump's position is worse among those who feel strongly about his performance than it is among all registered voters. Take the Gun Control issue numbers in the last poll in the series (July 14 - 16). Trump was in the red by only 4 percentage points on the Gun Control issue among all registered voter respondents (43 minus 47). But he was in the red by 12 percentage points among those who either "Strongly Approve" or "Strongly Disapprove" of his handling of the issue (27 minus 39). It's like that with every issue. There are notably more people who feel strongly about Trump in a negative way than there are those who feel strongly about him in a positive way.

You can also see it in the overall Job Approval. Like in the last poll of the series he was 5 in the red among all registered voter respondents but 12 points in the red among registered voter respondents who felt "Strongly" about his performance.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:35 am

National polls don’t mean shit.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Chizzang » Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:25 am

AZGrizFan wrote:National polls don’t mean shit.



Considering that you don't have to win the popular election - they sure as hell don't

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:33 pm

Chizzang wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:National polls don’t mean ****.



Considering that you don't have to win the popular election - they sure as hell don't

:nod:


Guys, the first election in which the popular vote was recorded was 1824. That was a weird one. Nobody won a majority of the popular vote and nobody won a majority of the electoral college. After that we've had 48 elections. There have been four instances in which someone won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. So in 44 of 48 instances, the person who won the popular vote also won the electoral college. That's 92% of the time.

Also, there has only been one instance in which a candidate got more than 50% of the popular vote but lost the electoral vote. That was in 1876.

I understand that it is not 100% predictive. But if you win the majority of the popular vote nationally you are probably going to win the electoral vote.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:38 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
Chizzang wrote:

Considering that you don't have to win the popular election - they sure as hell don't

:nod:


Guys, the first election in which the popular vote was recorded was 1824. That was a weird one. Nobody won a majority of the popular vote and nobody won a majority of the electoral college. After that we've had 48 elections. There have been four instances in which someone won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. So in 44 of 48 instances, the person who won the popular vote also won the electoral college. That's 92% of the time.

Also, there has only been one instance in which a candidate got more than 50% of the popular vote but lost the electoral vote. That was in 1876.

I understand that it is not 100% predictive. But if you win the majority of the popular vote nationally you are probably going to win the electoral vote.


I’ll give you one thing...you’re consistent. :rofl: :rofl:

When libs are SO concentrated in 2-3 states, it’s meaning less and less, John. Look at how Hildabeast did in CA and NY, then look at the other 48 states, DC and PR. Here’s a hint: She LOST the popular vote, by quite a bit, in the other 50 combined....

It’s not a NATIONAL election. It’s 52 individual elections. There’s a reason Donks want to abolish the electoral college. They all live in about 7 or 8 states.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Chizzang » Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:28 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Guys, the first election in which the popular vote was recorded was 1824. That was a weird one. Nobody won a majority of the popular vote and nobody won a majority of the electoral college. After that we've had 48 elections. There have been four instances in which someone won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. So in 44 of 48 instances, the person who won the popular vote also won the electoral college. That's 92% of the time.

Also, there has only been one instance in which a candidate got more than 50% of the popular vote but lost the electoral vote. That was in 1876.

I understand that it is not 100% predictive. But if you win the majority of the popular vote nationally you are probably going to win the electoral vote.


I’ll give you one thing...you’re consistent. :rofl: :rofl:

When libs are SO concentrated in 2-3 states, it’s meaning less and less, John. Look at how Hildabeast did in CA and NY, then look at the other 48 states, DC and PR. Here’s a hint: She LOST the popular vote, by quite a bit, in the other 50 combined....

It’s not a NATIONAL election. It’s 52 individual elections. There’s a reason Donks want to abolish the electoral college. They all live in about 7 or 8 states.


True... it is indeed 52 individual elections

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby css75 » Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:48 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Guys, the first election in which the popular vote was recorded was 1824. That was a weird one. Nobody won a majority of the popular vote and nobody won a majority of the electoral college. After that we've had 48 elections. There have been four instances in which someone won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. So in 44 of 48 instances, the person who won the popular vote also won the electoral college. That's 92% of the time.

Also, there has only been one instance in which a candidate got more than 50% of the popular vote but lost the electoral vote. That was in 1876.

I understand that it is not 100% predictive. But if you win the majority of the popular vote nationally you are probably going to win the electoral vote.


I’ll give you one thing...you’re consistent. :rofl: :rofl:

When libs are SO concentrated in 2-3 states, it’s meaning less and less, John. Look at how Hildabeast did in CA and NY, then look at the other 48 states, DC and PR. Here’s a hint: She LOST the popular vote, by quite a bit, in the other 50 combined....

It’s not a NATIONAL election. It’s 52 individual elections. There’s a reason Donks want to abolish the electoral college. They all live in about 7 or 8 states.


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby CID1990 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:33 am

I also love Marianne Williamson and hope she stays in the race as long as possible -

https://hotair.com/archives/karen-towns ... -buzz-off/


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby mainejeff2 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:25 am

AZGrizFan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Guys, the first election in which the popular vote was recorded was 1824. That was a weird one. Nobody won a majority of the popular vote and nobody won a majority of the electoral college. After that we've had 48 elections. There have been four instances in which someone won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. So in 44 of 48 instances, the person who won the popular vote also won the electoral college. That's 92% of the time.

Also, there has only been one instance in which a candidate got more than 50% of the popular vote but lost the electoral vote. That was in 1876.

I understand that it is not 100% predictive. But if you win the majority of the popular vote nationally you are probably going to win the electoral vote.


I’ll give you one thing...you’re consistent. :rofl: :rofl:

When libs are SO concentrated in 2-3 states, it’s meaning less and less, John. Look at how Hildabeast did in CA and NY, then look at the other 48 states, DC and PR. Here’s a hint: She LOST the popular vote, by quite a bit, in the other 50 combined....

It’s not a NATIONAL election. It’s 52 individual elections. There’s a reason Donks want to abolish the electoral college. They all live in about 7 or 8 states.


#FakeNews

Hillary won in 22 states.

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby CID1990 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:28 am

mainejeff2 wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
I’ll give you one thing...you’re consistent. :rofl: :rofl:

When libs are SO concentrated in 2-3 states, it’s meaning less and less, John. Look at how Hildabeast did in CA and NY, then look at the other 48 states, DC and PR. Here’s a hint: She LOST the popular vote, by quite a bit, in the other 50 combined....

It’s not a NATIONAL election. It’s 52 individual elections. There’s a reason Donks want to abolish the electoral college. They all live in about 7 or 8 states.


#FakeNews

Hillary won in 22 states.


You aren’t good at that readin stuff are ya?


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Skjellyfetti » Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:18 pm

AZGrizFan wrote: Look at how Hildabeast did in CA and NY, then look at the other 48 states, DC and PR. Here’s a hint: She LOST the popular vote, by quite a bit, in the other 50 combined....


Oh wow. If you remove California and New York, Democrats lost the popular vote. Wooooow! Unbelievable!

Kinda like how if you magically flip Trump's 2 biggest states for electoral college votes... she wins quite easily. :lol:
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Mueller is going to take a beating on the left before this business is over

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:22 pm

CID1990 wrote:But if the Dems nominate anyone other than Biden, the gap is going to close within the margin of error, and Trump will win the rust belt states again


Could happen but I don't think it's a given at all. 2016 involved a very unique set of circumstances including the Democrat candidate being under FBI investigation then having Comey drop his late bomb along with resentment among Sanders supporters over perceptions of unfairness. I've posted the details before but the changes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from the previous election were much more the Democrat getting less support than the Republican getting more. More people in those States voted third Party. It was much more a matter of Clinton getting less than Obama than it was Trump getting more than Romney. Also declines in minority turnout.

Even with all that Trump's margins in those States were very narrow. He did not win a majority in any of the three States.

I can never know but I think Clinton would've won all three States if she had never created her private server issue. Almost certainly she'd have won all three without that as well as without the Sanders supporter resentment factor. The next Democrat candidate isn't going to have either of those problems.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby mainejeff2 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:33 pm

CID1990 wrote:
mainejeff2 wrote:
#FakeNews

Hillary won in 22 states.


You aren’t good at that readin stuff are ya?


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7 or 8 = 22? Huh.

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby CID1990 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:38 pm

mainejeff2 wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
You aren’t good at that readin stuff are ya?


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7 or 8 = 22? Huh.


You may want to go back and read carefully, Pythagoras

Even Reek got it


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:39 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Guys, the first election in which the popular vote was recorded was 1824. That was a weird one. Nobody won a majority of the popular vote and nobody won a majority of the electoral college. After that we've had 48 elections. There have been four instances in which someone won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. So in 44 of 48 instances, the person who won the popular vote also won the electoral college. That's 92% of the time.

Also, there has only been one instance in which a candidate got more than 50% of the popular vote but lost the electoral vote. That was in 1876.

I understand that it is not 100% predictive. But if you win the majority of the popular vote nationally you are probably going to win the electoral vote.


I’ll give you one thing...you’re consistent. :rofl: :rofl:


I am also correct. Historically, the person who won the popular vote also won the Electoral college on the overwhelming majority of occasions.

When libs are SO concentrated in 2-3 states, it’s meaning less and less, John. Look at how Hildabeast did in CA and NY, then look at the other 48 states, DC and PR. Here’s a hint: She LOST the popular vote, by quite a bit, in the other 50 combined....

It’s not a NATIONAL election. It’s 52 individual elections. There’s a reason Donks want to abolish the electoral college. They all live in about 7 or 8 states.


Trump won by extremely narrow margins in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And if you're going to talk about small number of States changing everything Trump would've lost the election if just one State, Texas, had gone the other way. So take away Texas and the rest of the country voted for Clinton in the Electoral College.

Everybody knows it's 52 individual elections. Nevertheless, winning the popular vote usually means winning the Electoral College as well and I guarantee you that after the Democrats pick their horse either major Party candidate would rather be up in polls on the popular vote than down in them.
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2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby CID1990 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:49 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
I’ll give you one thing...you’re consistent. :rofl: :rofl:


I am also correct. Historically, the person who won the popular vote also won the Electoral college on the overwhelming majority of occasions.

When libs are SO concentrated in 2-3 states, it’s meaning less and less, John. Look at how Hildabeast did in CA and NY, then look at the other 48 states, DC and PR. Here’s a hint: She LOST the popular vote, by quite a bit, in the other 50 combined....

It’s not a NATIONAL election. It’s 52 individual elections. There’s a reason Donks want to abolish the electoral college. They all live in about 7 or 8 states.


Trump won by extremely narrow margins in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And if you're going to talk about small number of States changing everything Trump would've lost the election if just one State, Texas, had gone the other way. So take away Texas and the rest of the country voted for Clinton in the Electoral College.

Everybody knows it's 52 individual elections. Nevertheless, winning the popular vote usually means winning the Electoral College as well and I guarantee you that after the Democrats pick their horse either major Party candidate would rather be up in polls on the popular vote than down in them.


It does usually follow the popular vote - except in cases where a candidate carries essentially the east and west coast population centers only

funny how it works as intended

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue Jul 23, 2019 5:15 pm

A Marist poll with some interesting info on issues came out yesterday (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content ... pdf#page=3). I posted the specifics on how registered voters responded on issues below. I coded response outcomes I think favor Democrats blue and those I think favor Republicans red. There are a couple I left with no color as I don't thin they favor either party.

Once again I think the results suggest Democrats have somewhat of an advantage on issues. I'm particularly struck by the fact that overwhelming majorities of respondents think rejoining the Paris Climate accord, providing a path to citizenship for illegal aliens, a wealth tax, minimum wage, banning semi automatic "assault weapons, and implementing a Medicare for all plan as long as the option for retaining private insurance is allowed are good ideas.

And 60% of respondents thought a "Green New Deal" is a good idea vs. 34% who thought it was a bad idea. That one is particularly interesting because I get the impression that a lot of Republicans think they REALLY have something on that issue.

I think the results on things like health care and immigration are mixed. But the results on things like environment, "tax the rich," minimum wage, and gun control are not. The Democrats are in far better position with respect to those general areas.

Do you think Medicare for all, that is a national health insurance program for all Americans that replaces private health insurance, is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 40% Bad idea: 55%

Do you think Medicare for all that want it, that is allow all Americans to choose between a national health insurance program or their own private health insurance, is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 69% Bad idea: 26%


Do you think a national health insurance program available for immigrants who are in the US illegally is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 32% Bad idea: 62%


Do you think repealing Obamacare is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 45% Bad idea: 50%


Do you think government regulation of prescription drug prices is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 67% Bad idea: 28%

Do you think a tax on emissions of carbon based fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 50% Bad idea: 44%

Do you think a Green New Deal to address climate change by investing government money in green jobs and energy efficient infrastructure is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 60% Bad idea: 34%

Do you think having the United States rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 52% Bad idea: 32%

Do you think a ban on the sale of semi-automatic assault guns such as the AK-47 or the AR-15, is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 57% Bad idea: 41%

Do you think background checks for gun purchases at gun shows or other private sales is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 88% Bad idea: 10%

Do you think free college tuition at public colleges or universities is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 51% Bad idea: 45%

Do you think a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who are in the US illegally is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 63% Bad idea: 32%


Do you think decriminalizing illegal border crossings is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 27% Bad idea: 67%


Do you think a national minimum wage of 15 dollars an hour is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 55% Bad idea: 42%


Do you think a Universal Basic Income of $1,000 per month for each American 18 or older is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 26% Bad idea: 66%


Do you think a Wealth Tax, that is a higher tax rate on income above one million dollars, is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 61% Gad idea: 34%


Do you think legalizing marijuana nationally is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 62% Bad idea: 33%


Do you think abolishing the death penalty is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 36% Bad idea: 58%

Do you think providing reparations for slavery is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 26% Bad idea: 63%

Do you think getting rid of the electoral college as part of the presidential election process is a good idea or a bad idea?

Good idea: 42% Bad idea: 50%
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
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