2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Ibanez » Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:00 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
As you know, I am not a Democrat. However, we are a point in history right now where an overwhelming defeat of the Republican Party would be good for the country. In fact the country really needs for that to happen. The Republican Party has now shown itself to be a totally corrupt institution that needs to be consigned to irrelevance. In that regard, I would like to see Beto run for the Senate in Texas. The odds are against him winning but he would probably be the best chance of defeating the Republican.

I don’t know that, John. You say you’re no longer a Republican, and you back any Democrat with a pulse (and a few without). If it walks like a Donk and talks like a Donk....

...It’s coming for your guns and disposable income?


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby BDKJMU » Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:08 am

CID1990 wrote:Looks like Trump isn’t the only one with a “Mexico will pay for it” policy


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Except with the wall were talking billions. With Pocahontas’s health care plan are talking 10s of trillions, 52 trillion over 10 years to be exact..

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:03 am

Question: If Creepy Joe gets the POTUS nomination, would he choose septuagenarian white chick Warren to get the hopey-changey vote out, or 50-something mixed race chick Caramel Harris to get the minority vote out?
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:07 am

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Pop quiz: can you name three Libertarian Party candidates for POTUS without Googling them?


If you're talking about for the current cycle, no. If you're talking about Libertarian candidates running in general elections in the past, yes.

I am registered as a Libertarian because a higher proportion of my own positions are held by the Libertarian Party than are held by Democrat or Republican Parties. I am not involved in Libertarian Party processes like selecting candidates. And, as I've said before, I will not vote in a general election for someone who has no chance to win.

Now, if they would go to "instant primary" or "ranked" voting as I wish they would, I would.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:09 am

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
If I was ever a Republican, I was not recently. I have been registered as a Libertarian for as long as I can remember. At the same time, I was born in 1957 and can only remember one case in my lifetime where i voted for a Democrat prior to 2016. And I am a person who votes in every election local, state and national.

I did not vote Republican because I thought the Republican Party is great. I did it because I thought it was the lessor of two evils among realistic choices. That has changed. I now see the Democrat Party as the lessor of two evils as the Republican Party has really plunged into darkness in association with this Trump thing. Just completely thrown any semblance of integrity out the window and is all in with a totally corrupt, dishonest, and mentally ill guy.


You calling yourself a Libertarian while supporting any Dem candidate currently in the field is just as incongruent as Republicans supporting runaway deficit spending under Trump

You just make it sound as though you are ill yourself when you try to reconcile that.


Each Party has Libertarian aspects. I consider the Republicans to be a bigger threat to Liberty over the long term right now.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:25 am

I do not think Elizabeth Warren is a good candidate. She's got extreme positions. She also comes off as shrill.

That's why it amazes me that she continues to run ahead of Trump in popular vote polls. She's farther ahead of him in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, to a fairly substantial degree, then Clinton was on election eve 2016.

Right now her margin in that average is 5.2 percentage points. On election even 2016, Clinton's edge in that average was 3.2 percentage points. Also, as I posted earlier (in this thread I think), maximum extent to which the Real Clear Politics average of polling has been off in the most recent 10 national elections (President and House) going back through 2006 (as far back as I could find averages) is 3.6 percentage points. So Warren being up by 5.2 on Trump in that average is notable.

That's not the only result that makes me think Republicans may over estimate the extent to which people are afraid of the "Socialist" label. The last Real Clear Politics average for Sanders vs. Trump in 2016, reported on June 6, 2016, had Sanders up by 10.3 percentage points. On the same date, the average had Clinton up on Trump by just 2 percentage points. If anybody didn't know Sanders was a Socialist at the time, they must've been hiding under a pretty thick rock. Actually I'm sure some people didn't know because we have a pretty uninformed population. Still, Sanders was widely known to be openly Socialist.

Similarly, I think Warren's general approaches to government is pretty well known. And her voice is like fingernails on a blackboard for those of us old enough to remember that. Yet polling consistently suggests more people nationally would vote for her than for Trump. And if she to be the candidate and win the popular vote by something like 5 percentage points I think her chances of also winning the Electoral College would be good.
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Re: RE: Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby UNI88 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:43 am

JohnStOnge wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:


If you're talking about for the current cycle, no. If you're talking about Libertarian candidates running in general elections in the past, yes.

I am registered as a Libertarian because a higher proportion of my own positions are held by the Libertarian Party than are held by Democrat or Republican Parties. I am not involved in Libertarian Party processes like selecting candidates. And, as I've said before, I will not vote in a general election for someone who has no chance to win.

Now, if they would go to "instant primary" or "ranked" voting as I wish they would, I would.
John you calling yourself a libertarian and supporting the current crop of Donk candidates is like evangelicals supporting Trump.

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Ibanez » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:24 pm

That’s something I’ve always thought about and there’s never a good answer - what happens to all the people who work in health insurance when you eliminate their jobs. Bring them over to the govt? Not sure what the right answer is.


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:I do not think Elizabeth Warren is a good candidate. She's got extreme positions. She also comes off as shrill.

That's why it amazes me that she continues to run ahead of Trump in popular vote polls. She's farther ahead of him in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, to a fairly substantial degree, then Clinton was on election eve 2016.

Right now her margin in that average is 5.2 percentage points. On election even 2016, Clinton's edge in that average was 3.2 percentage points. Also, as I posted earlier (in this thread I think), maximum extent to which the Real Clear Politics average of polling has been off in the most recent 10 national elections (President and House) going back through 2006 (as far back as I could find averages) is 3.6 percentage points. So Warren being up by 5.2 on Trump in that average is notable.

That's not the only result that makes me think Republicans may over estimate the extent to which people are afraid of the "Socialist" label. The last Real Clear Politics average for Sanders vs. Trump in 2016, reported on June 6, 2016, had Sanders up by 10.3 percentage points. On the same date, the average had Clinton up on Trump by just 2 percentage points. If anybody didn't know Sanders was a Socialist at the time, they must've been hiding under a pretty thick rock. Actually I'm sure some people didn't know because we have a pretty uninformed population. Still, Sanders was widely known to be openly Socialist.

Similarly, I think Warren's general approaches to government is pretty well known. And her voice is like fingernails on a blackboard for those of us old enough to remember that. Yet polling consistently suggests more people nationally would vote for her than for Trump. And if she to be the candidate and win the popular vote by something like 5 percentage points I think her chances of also winning the Electoral College would be good.

And you will vote for her, principles be damned, solely because she has a chance to win. Got it.
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Re: RE: Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby UNI88 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:52 pm

Ibanez wrote:That’s something I’ve always thought about and there’s never a good answer - what happens to all the people who work in health insurance when you eliminate their jobs. Bring them over to the govt? Not sure what the right answer is.


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Ibanez » Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:47 pm

UNI88 wrote:
Ibanez wrote:That’s something I’ve always thought about and there’s never a good answer - what happens to all the people who work in health insurance when you eliminate their jobs. Bring them over to the govt? Not sure what the right answer is.


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Naturally.


But not Liberty Mutual. Those bastards and their emu are heartless scum.


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:27 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:I do not think Elizabeth Warren is a good candidate. She's got extreme positions. She also comes off as shrill.

That's why it amazes me that she continues to run ahead of Trump in popular vote polls. She's farther ahead of him in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, to a fairly substantial degree, then Clinton was on election eve 2016.

Right now her margin in that average is 5.2 percentage points. On election even 2016, Clinton's edge in that average was 3.2 percentage points. Also, as I posted earlier (in this thread I think), maximum extent to which the Real Clear Politics average of polling has been off in the most recent 10 national elections (President and House) going back through 2006 (as far back as I could find averages) is 3.6 percentage points. So Warren being up by 5.2 on Trump in that average is notable.

That's not the only result that makes me think Republicans may over estimate the extent to which people are afraid of the "Socialist" label. The last Real Clear Politics average for Sanders vs. Trump in 2016, reported on June 6, 2016, had Sanders up by 10.3 percentage points. On the same date, the average had Clinton up on Trump by just 2 percentage points. If anybody didn't know Sanders was a Socialist at the time, they must've been hiding under a pretty thick rock. Actually I'm sure some people didn't know because we have a pretty uninformed population. Still, Sanders was widely known to be openly Socialist.

Similarly, I think Warren's general approaches to government is pretty well known. And her voice is like fingernails on a blackboard for those of us old enough to remember that. Yet polling consistently suggests more people nationally would vote for her than for Trump. And if she to be the candidate and win the popular vote by something like 5 percentage points I think her chances of also winning the Electoral College would be good.

And you will vote for her, principles be damned, solely because she has a chance to win. Got it.


Are those the same polls that had Beta beating Trump 52-48? And yet he polled at 0% in his own fucking primary? :rofl:
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby css75 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:39 pm

UNI88 wrote:
Ibanez wrote:That’s something I’ve always thought about and there’s never a good answer - what happens to all the people who work in health insurance when you eliminate their jobs. Bring them over to the govt? Not sure what the right answer is.


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I have heard that 2 million jobs would be lost with her health plan.


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby BDKJMU » Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:27 pm

Ibanez wrote:That’s something I’ve always thought about and there’s never a good answer - what happens to all the people who work in health insurance when you eliminate their jobs. Bring them over to the govt? Not sure what the right answer is.


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Re: RE: Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:33 pm

UNI88 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
If you're talking about for the current cycle, no. If you're talking about Libertarian candidates running in general elections in the past, yes.

I am registered as a Libertarian because a higher proportion of my own positions are held by the Libertarian Party than are held by Democrat or Republican Parties. I am not involved in Libertarian Party processes like selecting candidates. And, as I've said before, I will not vote in a general election for someone who has no chance to win.

Now, if they would go to "instant primary" or "ranked" voting as I wish they would, I would.
John you calling yourself a libertarian and supporting the current crop of Donk candidates is like evangelicals supporting Trump.

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No it's not. The phenomenon that led to Trump being where he is is not a phenomenon friendly to the cause of Liberty.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:37 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:And you will vote for her, principles be damned, solely because she has a chance to win. Got it.


Are those the same polls that had Beta beating Trump 52-48? And yet he polled at 0% in his own fucking primary? :rofl:


There is, for obvious reasons, no current Real Clear Politics average of polls for that match up. But it doesn't matter. The reason Beto dropped out is because he could see he wasn't going to win the Democrat nomination. That does not mean he would not have had a solid chance at beating Trump if he COULD get the Democrat nomination.
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Re: RE: Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:40 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
UNI88 wrote:John you calling yourself a libertarian and supporting the current crop of Donk candidates is like evangelicals supporting Trump.

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No it's not. The phenomenon that led to Trump being where he is is not a phenomenon friendly to the cause of Liberty.

And Warren’s a friend of Liberty? Turn in your Libertarian card, John. You just don’t get it. And you don’t do anything for the party. You’re a drone.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:42 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
Are those the same polls that had Beta beating Trump 52-48? And yet he polled at 0% in his own fucking primary? :rofl:


As I've tried to get you guys to see, there is a historical record on the Real Clear Politics average of polls and it provides an idea as to how far off it might be. The maximum extent to which it has been off in national elections is 3.6 percentage points. The average is 2.01 percentage points.

When you see something like Warren leading Trump by 5.2 percentage points in that average, that is notable. If you are a Trump fan and you are dismissing her leading him by that much in that average you are sticking your head in the sand.
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Re: RE: Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:45 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
No it's not. The phenomenon that led to Trump being where he is is not a phenomenon friendly to the cause of Liberty.

And Warren’s a friend of Liberty? Turn in your Libertarian card, John. You just don’t get it. And you don’t do anything for the party. You’re a drone.


Based on what I've seen you post I have been a Libertarian for a lot longer than you have been. The Republican Party is a greater threat to Liberty right now than the Democratic Party is. The Republican Party, in the cause of protecting Trump, is actively engaged in attacking the institutions and procedures that protect Liberty.
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Re: RE: Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:56 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:And Warren’s a friend of Liberty? Turn in your Libertarian card, John. You just don’t get it. And you don’t do anything for the party. You’re a drone.


Based on what I've seen you post I have been a Libertarian for a lot longer than you have been. The Republican Party is a greater threat to Liberty right now than the Democratic Party is. The Republican Party, in the cause of protecting Trump, is actively engaged in attacking the institutions and procedures that protect Liberty.


You are not a libertarian. Not even remotely. You’re delusional if you still think so.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:57 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Are those the same polls that had Beta beating Trump 52-48? And yet he polled at 0% in his own fucking primary? :rofl:


As I've tried to get you guys to see, there is a historical record on the Real Clear Politics average of polls and it provides an idea as to how far off it might be. The maximum extent to which it has been off in national elections is 3.6 percentage points. The average is 2.01 percentage points.

When you see something like Warren leading Trump by 5.2 percentage points in that average, that is notable. If you are a Trump fan and you are dismissing her leading him by that much in that average you are sticking your head in the sand.


You didn’t answer my question. Per usual.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby CID1990 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:08 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:And Warren’s a friend of Liberty? Turn in your Libertarian card, John. You just don’t get it. And you don’t do anything for the party. You’re a drone.


Based on what I've seen you post I have been a Libertarian for a lot longer than you have been. The Republican Party is a greater threat to Liberty right now than the Democratic Party is. The Republican Party, in the cause of protecting Trump, is actively engaged in attacking the institutions and procedures that protect Liberty.


You can make an argument for Trump being a statist ... even a threat to institutions. But you cannot make an argument for Warren being a better alternative along those lines. Anyone who tries either hasnt been listening to her or is on her campaign staff


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby css75 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:17 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Are those the same polls that had Beta beating Trump 52-48? And yet he polled at 0% in his own fucking primary? :rofl:


There is, for obvious reasons, no current Real Clear Politics average of polls for that match up. But it doesn't matter. The reason Beto dropped out is because he could see he wasn't going to win the Democrat nomination. That does not mean he would not have had a solid chance at beating Trump if he COULD get the Democrat nomination.


You would have a better chance of beating Trump than Beto, which is a very low bar for Beto.


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Re: RE: Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:50 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:And Warren’s a friend of Liberty? Turn in your Libertarian card, John. You just don’t get it. And you don’t do anything for the party. You’re a drone.


Based on what I've seen you post I have been a Libertarian for a lot longer than you have been. The Republican Party is a greater threat to Liberty right now than the Democratic Party is. The Republican Party, in the cause of protecting Trump, is actively engaged in attacking the institutions and procedures that protect Liberty.

Oh, I’ll admit that you’ve been a do-nothing, name-only Libertarian for years. The fact that you don’t work for the party or support its candidates speaks volumes. Although I’ve been a member for only two years, I’ve done both.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Postby css75 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:58 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Based on what I've seen you post I have been a Libertarian for a lot longer than you have been. The Republican Party is a greater threat to Liberty right now than the Democratic Party is. The Republican Party, in the cause of protecting Trump, is actively engaged in attacking the institutions and procedures that protect Liberty.

Oh, I’ll admit that you’ve been a do-nothing, name-only Libertarian for years. The fact that you don’t work for the party or support its candidates speaks volumes. Although I’ve been a member for only two years, I’ve done both.



From since I have been here, I believe you are a libertarian as I agree with a little more than half of your posts, which fits thar party for me.


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