2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

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Re: RE: Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by Ivytalk »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Glad to hear that you think a person can take a dump wherever he or she wants, John. But Warren has absolutely no instinct or core belief in personal liberty. She’s an unrelenting statist. Which makes you a fellow traveler, and (as 88 correctly points out) a hypocrite of the first order.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/where-p ... marijuana/

She's got an "A" grade from NORML.
:lol:

So did my late mother.

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Glad to hear that you think a person can take a dump wherever he or she wants, John. But Warren has absolutely no instinct or core belief in personal liberty. She’s an unrelenting statist. Which makes you a fellow traveler, and (as 88 correctly points out) a hypocrite of the first order.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/where-p ... marijuana/

She's got an "A" grade from NORML.
She’s also behind Trump in a plurality of battleground states according to the latest NYT poll. Biden leads Trump in those states.

Stop rationalizing Warren as some kind of libertarian. The only reason you’re doing that is because she’s pulling ahead of Biden in a few places. But she is not the answer to your overarching desire. Biden is - and your heavenly polling generally supports that

She’s nearly identical to Trump on trade and she openly supports confiscatory tax policies and the dismantling of the largest insurance industry in the country to pay for government run healthcare for all. She’s nobody’s definition of a libertarian so quit being so transparently dishonest about her.

If you think Warren is libertarian in the slightest sense then it would be indeed on social issues- which are literally some of the most insignificant political points possible.

Pot and bathrooms .... yeah those will destroy Trump in November


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/where-p ... marijuana/

She's got an "A" grade from NORML.
She’s also behind Trump in a plurality of battleground states according to the latest NYT poll. Biden leads Trump in those states.

Stop rationalizing Warren as some kind of libertarian. The only reason you’re doing that is because she’s pulling ahead of Biden in a few places. But she is not the answer to your overarching desire. Biden is - and your heavenly polling generally supports that

She’s nearly identical to Trump on trade and she openly supports confiscatory tax policies and the dismantling of the largest insurance industry in the country to pay for government run healthcare for all. She’s nobody’s definition of a libertarian so quit being so transparently dishonest about her.

If you think Warren is libertarian in the slightest sense then it would be indeed on social issues- which are literally some of the most insignificant political points possible.

Pot and bathrooms .... yeah those will destroy Trump in November


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Yes I saw those battleground State poll results. As I've said for some time now, I recognize that Trump could win again and I recognize that Warren is not the best candidate the Democrats could pick to run against him. I do not disagree at all with the statement that Biden would be the best choice.

However, those battleground State results are from one polling effort consisting of a series of polls with large margins of error and all of the differences, including the differences involving Biden, are within the margins of error. I do not like the results. I would love to see any of the three Democrat candidates ahead by more than the margin of error (which for the difference between candidates is 8.8 percentage points for five of the States and 10.2 percentage points for the other one). But what they basically show is "too close to call" for each State and each matchup.

And yes I would rather see the point estimates be more in the favor of the Democrat in each case. At the same time, I would not be comfortable with the kinds of edges Biden has in that particular poll. They are simply too small to achieve a high confidence level.

The polls do show high confidence that Biden is a stronger candidate than Warren. That's because he polled better against Trump in six of six States. The probability of that happening by chance is only about 0.02.

It's not pot and bathrooms that make Trump vulnerable. It's that there is a strong "anybody but Trump" sentiment in the population.

What I've said all along is that there is reasonable HOPE regardless of who the Democrats nominate. And that remains the case.

What I've said is that Warren would have a good chance. And she would.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

BTW this is an example of why I mentioned something about it being a single poll:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6769.html

I just Googled for the Real Clear Politics average of polls for Trump vs. Warren in Michigan. Note that Warren holds an edge in the average. Also, there is an Emerson poll that was conducted during a period that ended later than the Sienna poll everybody's been discussing today. It has Warren up by 8 percentage points over Trump in Michigan. The Sienna poll has Trump up.

There is "scatter" in polls.

That does not mean I am happy with what the polls show. I would much prefer that the polls show that if the election was held tomorrow Trump would clearly lose. They do not. But they also do not show that he would clearly win.

If the election were held tomorrow and it was Trump vs. Biden I would be willing to bet Biden would win. If it were held tomorrow and it was Trump vs. Warren I would consider it to be a toss up. But I would have reasonable hope that Warren would win.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

I would much prefer that we didn't have a population in this country such that somebody like Trump could ever have a snowball's chance in hell of ever getting elected President. As I've said before: Trump is a symptom. The real problem is that we have people in this country who would vote for somebody like that.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by Ivytalk »

JohnStOnge wrote:I would much prefer that we didn't have a population in this country such that somebody like Trump could ever have a snowball's chance in hell of ever getting elected President. As I've said about 5,000 times before, if anybody has lost count: Trump is a symptom. The real problem is that we have people in this country who would vote for somebody like that, and I would send all such people to the gulag.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:I would much prefer that we didn't have a population in this country such that somebody like Trump could ever have a snowball's chance in hell of ever getting elected President. As I've said before: Trump is a symptom. The real problem is that we have people in this country who would vote for somebody like that.
You keep touching on the real reason Trump won, and might win again, and yet you don't see it.

You would vote for an abhorrent candidate because that candidate is, by your perception, the lesser of two evils. You say it over and over yourself. Your mindset is the same as those who voted for Trump.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by ∞∞∞ »

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:I would much prefer that we didn't have a population in this country such that somebody like Trump could ever have a snowball's chance in hell of ever getting elected President. As I've said before: Trump is a symptom. The real problem is that we have people in this country who would vote for somebody like that.
You keep touching on the real reason Trump won, and might win again, and yet you don't see it.

You would vote for an abhorrent candidate because that candidate is, by your perception, the lesser of two evils. You say it over and over yourself. Your mindset is the same as those who voted for Trump.
That's 'cause y'all are jaded and think anybody who pursues politics is a terrible person, when most are people like us with normal flaws who want to serve their nation (even if we disagree ideologically).

Trump's flaws are not normal in any sense of the word. He's a genuinely bad human being who lacks empathy and literally couldn't give one sh*t about another soul or the nation as a whole.

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by CID1990 »

∞∞∞ wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
You keep touching on the real reason Trump won, and might win again, and yet you don't see it.

You would vote for an abhorrent candidate because that candidate is, by your perception, the lesser of two evils. You say it over and over yourself. Your mindset is the same as those who voted for Trump.
That's 'cause y'all are jaded and think anybody who pursues politics is a terrible person, when most are people like us with normal flaws who want to serve their nation (even if we disagree ideologically).

Trump's flaws are not normal in any sense of the word. He's a genuinely bad human being who lacks empathy and literally couldn't give one sh*t about another soul or the nation as a whole.
Who the hell is "y'all"? You mean people who are suspicious of people who seek higher office? I'll accept an inclusion as "y'all" on that, I guess

There are plenty of civic minded people out there - very few of them run for office.. because they know they can do more as first responders or military or teachers/professors or caregivers... hell my own grandfather did his civic duty as he saw it by giving free dental care to people who couldn't afford it, and desegregating his waiting room as well as his flight school in the heyday of the klukker assholes in my part of NC. He never once gave any thought to running for office (and he could easily have been at least a NC state senator if he had wanted it)

I have personally experienced all kinds of politicians at all levels of government and I have found that nearly all of them share some key characteristics - none of which are what I would include on a list of things I would look for when deciding who to hand the keys of government over to. You choose your poison with literally any politician above the county/city level.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by Ivytalk »

∞∞∞ wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
You keep touching on the real reason Trump won, and might win again, and yet you don't see it.

You would vote for an abhorrent candidate because that candidate is, by your perception, the lesser of two evils. You say it over and over yourself. Your mindset is the same as those who voted for Trump.
That's 'cause y'all are jaded and think anybody who pursues politics is a terrible person, when most are people like us with normal flaws who want to serve their nation (even if we disagree ideologically).
:flag: 15 yards for gross generalization
:flag: 15 more yards for non sequitur
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by CID1990 »

Ivytalk wrote:
∞∞∞ wrote: That's 'cause y'all are jaded and think anybody who pursues politics is a terrible person, when most are people like us with normal flaws who want to serve their nation (even if we disagree ideologically).
:flag: 15 yards for gross generalization
:flag: 15 more yards for non sequitur
Automatic ejection
He's right about one thing if his definition of "y'all" means people who are suspicious of anyone who finds motivation in running for higher office

I have a feeling y'all isn't what he meant it to mean though
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

∞∞∞ wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
You keep touching on the real reason Trump won, and might win again, and yet you don't see it.

You would vote for an abhorrent candidate because that candidate is, by your perception, the lesser of two evils. You say it over and over yourself. Your mindset is the same as those who voted for Trump.
That's 'cause y'all are jaded and think anybody who pursues politics is a terrible person, when most are people like us with normal flaws who want to serve their nation (even if we disagree ideologically).

Trump's flaws are not normal in any sense of the word. He's a genuinely bad human being who lacks empathy and literally couldn't give one sh*t about another soul or the nation as a whole.
There you go, getting more and more stupid by the minute. If you think there’s a shittin’ bit of difference between Trump and any other politician out there I’ve got some oceanfront property in Arizona I’d like to sell you. Newsflash: There is NO politician out there with any desire to deliver some form of benevolent leadership for the good of all mankind. They ALL have an agenda. And once they’re elected, the tip top item on that agenda becomes getting RE-ELECTED. By any means possible. Trump’s “flaw” (your word, not mine) are no better or worse than any other crook who’s occupied that office in the last hundred years. I couldn’t care less if he “lacks empathy.” He’s done a dozen really, really good things for this country’s long-term future...who gives a shit if he’s brash and crass about it.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by SDHornet »

Heard an interesting tidbit on the radio today. With the impeachment inquiry being formalized, all the senators will have to ditch the campaign trail to sit in on the proceedings...all except the gay dude and Gil's gal...

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by css75 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Glad to hear that you think a person can take a dump wherever he or she wants, John. But Warren has absolutely no instinct or core belief in personal liberty. She’s an unrelenting statist. Which makes you a fellow traveler, and (as 88 correctly points out) a hypocrite of the first order.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/where-p ... marijuana/

She's got an "A" grade from NORML.

Great an endorsement from a bunch of people whose goal in life is to be stoned. Wonderful. Which might explain some of your posts.


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by Ibanez »

Yesterday on CNN, a former economic adviser to Obama was asked about Warrens healthcare plan. His response was, “Her plan basically says we’re going to buy a unicorn with unicorn. It’s unattainable.”



I had a good laugh as did the people on the show.


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by kalm »

css75 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/where-p ... marijuana/

She's got an "A" grade from NORML.

Great an endorsement from a bunch of people whose goal in life is to be stoned. Wonderful. Which might explain some of your posts.


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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by CAA Flagship »

kalm wrote: Now, where we?
:facepalm:

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

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CAA Flagship wrote:
kalm wrote: Now, where we?
:facepalm:
See? :coffee:
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by CAA Flagship »

kalm wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote: :facepalm:
See? :coffee:
:lol:

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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by Ibanez »

SDHornet wrote:Heard an interesting tidbit on the radio today. With the impeachment inquiry being formalized, all the senators will have to ditch the campaign trail to sit in on the proceedings...all except the gay dude and Gil's gal...
And Biden. And Steyer.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:I would much prefer that we didn't have a population in this country such that somebody like Trump could ever have a snowball's chance in hell of ever getting elected President. As I've said before: Trump is a symptom. The real problem is that we have people in this country who would vote for somebody like that.
You keep touching on the real reason Trump won, and might win again, and yet you don't see it.

You would vote for an abhorrent candidate because that candidate is, by your perception, the lesser of two evils. You say it over and over yourself. Your mindset is the same as those who voted for Trump.
No, because I am correct when I identify the lesser of two evils. The People who voted for Trump on that basis were not correct. Also, I think an awful lot of people who voted for Trump voted for him as a matter of affirmative support for a jackass like that. They were not thinking in terms of the lesser of two evils. Those people are a problem for this country.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

Another encouraging output from the Gold Standard ABC News/Washington Post Poll. An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted October 27 - 30. It's described at https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conte ... ection.pdf.

Among registered voter respondents:

Biden beat Trump by 56% to 39% (17 percentage points)
Sanders beat Trump by 55% to 41% (14 percentage points)
Warren beat Trump by 55% to 40% (15 percentage points)
Buttigieg beat Trump by 52% to 41% (11 percentage points)
Harris beat Trump by 51% to 42% (9 percentage points)

To get my own idea as to how this A+ rated poll has performed recently, I looked at how its estimates compared to actual results in national elections going back through 2006 (House and Presidential elections).

I used the Real Clear Politics site and was able to find 7 instances during the period when this poll was conducted close enough to the election to be counted in the Real Clear Politics average. The average of the extent to which it was off with respect to the margin between two candidates (President) or Parties (House) for those 7 polls is 1.4 percentage points. The MAXIMUM extent to which it was off 2.8 percentage points.

Looking at that and also looking at the 538 summary on how this poll performed in the 63 of its testable efforts included in the 538 analysis that was JUST updated today, I am very encouraged.

If the election were held tomorrow, I am confident that Trump would not just lose the popular vote to any of those candidates. He would get blown out. The poll is of registered voters. But polling likely voters would not make nearly enough difference to change the basic picture in this case. Is it possible he could win the Electoral College while losing by popular vote by double digits or close to it? Yes. Is it likely? I don't think so.

The candidate that's won the popular vote has won the Electoral College 92% of the time. Also, the biggest margin by which a candidate has lost the popular vote while winning the Electoral College is 3 percentage points. What we're seeing here suggests that if the election were held tomorrow Trump would lose the popular vote by a lot more than that.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

Just adding this to put the performance of the ABC News/Washington Post poll into perspective by comparing it to a poll conservatives like: The Rasmussen poll.

I looked at instances in which results for each poll appeared in those used to calculate Real Clear Politics averages in national elections 2006 through 2018. I found 7 instances for each poll.

Unbiased is 0. The bias of the ABC News/Washington Post poll 0.4 towards the Democrats. The bias of the Rasmussen poll is 2.8 towards Republicans. Check one for the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

The simple average error...the average of the extent to which a poll is off regardless of direction...of the ABC News/Washington Post poll is 1.4. The simple average error of the Rasmussen poll is 3.4. Check two for the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

The MAXIMUM absolute error...how far off a poll is regardless of direction...of the ABC News Washington Post poll is 2.8 percentage points. The maximum absolute error for the Rasmussen poll is 9.4 percentage points. Emphatically check three for the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Also, if we use just the point estimate of each poll, the ABC News/Washington Post poll was correct in all 7 instances. The Rasmussen poll was correct in 4 instances and incorrect in two. In one instance it predicted a tie.

Remember that sort of thing when you're trying to decide whether to believe something like the ABC News/Washington Post poll or believe something like the Rasmussen poll.
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by Col Hogan »

But, both polls only mean something if there is no Electoral College...
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Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

Post by UNI88 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
You keep touching on the real reason Trump won, and might win again, and yet you don't see it.

You would vote for an abhorrent candidate because that candidate is, by your perception, the lesser of two evils. You say it over and over yourself. Your mindset is the same as those who voted for Trump.
No, because I am correct when I identify the lesser of two evils. The People who voted for Trump on that basis were not correct. Also, I think an awful lot of people who voted for Trump voted for him as a matter of affirmative support for a jackass like that. They were not thinking in terms of the lesser of two evils. Those people are a problem for this country.
You are having a difficult time understanding the difference between your opinion and fact. Maybe you should check yourself into a mental hospital where they might be able to help you manage your rage and understand the difference.

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