Chinese Trade War

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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CAA Flagship »

GannonFan wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
We have to resist the Chinese on multiple fronts. Tariffs are a part of that formula. Why you think we shouldn't be resisting China's aggressive predatory practices with every tool in the box just because of who the President is .... is beyond me
Well, that and the fact that JSO can't see that China, trade war or not, is not in some invincible position economically. They are already dealing with the negative impact of the state being the owner of so much in the economy that the inefficient parts of the economy don't get removed as they would in a more open system, they are already dealing with significant cuts in their economic growth when they are absolutely dependent on growing far faster than they are currently, they are already dealing with no longer being the low cost manufacturer of choice, as there are plenty of other developing countries that have already stolen significant business from China, and they are also dealing with the difficulty of still being vastly behind in terms of overall technological adoption in all parts of their country compared to most Western nations. There is no absolute certainty in any shape or form that China will be the dominant economic country in the years, or century, to come. I'm not sure there's even a moderate certainty of that. JSO's knowledge of economics is his weak spot - it's like Chizzy on things not related to Comcast. :coffee:
Why did China agree to this Phase 1 deal? Especially when Trump is going through impeachment and it's only 11 months until the next election. They need cash badly. Sure, they have no intention of following any of the conditions, but it buys them time to figure something else out.

JSO thinks they are in a stronger position than the US. :lol:
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CID1990 »

houndawg wrote:
CID1990 wrote:It is disingenuous to call China “capitalist” because it implies that everyone in China enjoys the free practice of capitalism. (Clitz knows this)

China’s government generates revenue through allowing capitalist freedoms to the Chinese elites (coincidentally also Party members or closely connected to them). They allow corporate ownership of nonstrategic industries.

However, all Chinese companies are ultimately state owned. The means of production are state owned. The Central Committee 100% picks the corporate winners and losers (there are no losers though.... there are well connected corporate officers who are either in favor or out of favor). Chinese companies still must get Party sign-off on all major corporate decisions.

The average Chinese citizen still very much lives in a Communist dictatorship. He lives where he is told based on his household registration. He cannot just up and move to a new province to look for work where pay is better. His wages are fixed by the state. There is no significant profit sharing.

Outside of a food cart or garment shop that generates less than about 10,000 dollars per year, he cannot start up a company that he owns, and if he does start one it will be ultimately State owned and cannot directly compete with other companies (think all those gaps are filled? Yes they are.)

China as a country engages in capitalistic practices and participates in global markets but they are most definitely a command economy, single party dictatorship. There are few to zero comparisons with free market capitalist systems alongside guarantees of personal liberties like what we are accustomed to in the West.

They don’t “do capitalism” better than we do because they don’t “do capitalism”.




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Then its disingenuous to call the US "capitalist" too, if thatt implies that everyone in the US enjoys the free practice of capitalism. Only a very small number of Americans really have any chance to own the means of production.
That’s a flimsy way of masking the fact that you understand very little about the realities of China’s economic model.

If you think the US government tells people they cannot start a business, or that they cannot move to a different state to pursue better economic opportunities, or that they cannot attend certain colleges based on their socioeconomic status, or that they must work a certain job or else be unemployed, then yeah... in your mind then the US cannot be considered a capitalist country
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by houndawg »

CID1990 wrote:
houndawg wrote:
Then its disingenuous to call the US "capitalist" too, if thatt implies that everyone in the US enjoys the free practice of capitalism. Only a very small number of Americans really have any chance to own the means of production.
That’s a flimsy way of masking the fact that you understand very little about the realities of China’s economic model.

If you think the US government tells people they cannot start a business, or that they cannot move to a different state to pursue better economic opportunities, or that they cannot attend certain colleges based on their socioeconomic status, or that they must work a certain job or else be unemployed, then yeah... in your mind then the US cannot be considered a capitalist country
I don't think any of that stuff at all thats just you being dramatic because apparently you're in your peevish-bitch- with-a-yeast-infection mode. Of course nobody is forbidden from starting a steel mill but only a few dozen people in the US can. But yeah, if you include street food vendors then we're capitalist. China too.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by Chizzang »

the last two pages of this thread...

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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CID1990 »

houndawg wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
That’s a flimsy way of masking the fact that you understand very little about the realities of China’s economic model.

If you think the US government tells people they cannot start a business, or that they cannot move to a different state to pursue better economic opportunities, or that they cannot attend certain colleges based on their socioeconomic status, or that they must work a certain job or else be unemployed, then yeah... in your mind then the US cannot be considered a capitalist country
I don't think any of that stuff at all thats just you being dramatic because apparently you're in your peevish-bitch- with-a-yeast-infection mode. Of course nobody is forbidden from starting a steel mill but only a few dozen people in the US can. But yeah, if you include street food vendors then we're capitalist. China too.
Steel mill = straw man


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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

China sticking it to Trump again, right StOnge?
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true
China will lower tariffs on products ranging from frozen pork and avocado to some types of semiconductors next year as Beijing looks to boost imports amid a slowing economy and a trade war with the United States
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SDHornet »

SeattleGriz wrote:China sticking it to Trump again, right StOnge?
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true
China will lower tariffs on products ranging from frozen pork and avocado to some types of semiconductors next year as Beijing looks to boost imports amid a slowing economy and a trade war with the United States
So much winning. 8-)
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CID1990 »

This is sort of related, and should warm all of our hearts a little bit

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... _Most_Read

But the real problem is that we don’t practice realpolitik anymore, and therefore can’t leverage Russian angst over China to improve relations/cooperation


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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by AZGrizFan »

mainejeff2 wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:China sticking it to Trump again, right StOnge?
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true
Wall Street is shrugging this morning......must be already baked in.

:coffee:
Yeah. I hate it when the market goes up EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. :rofl: :rofl:
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by Ivytalk »

CID1990 wrote:This is sort of related, and should warm all of our hearts a little bit

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... _Most_Read

But the real problem is that we don’t practice realpolitik anymore, and therefore can’t leverage Russian angst over China to improve relations/cooperation


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Schadenfreude strikes again! :rofl:

So we’re not the only victims of Red Chunk Tech pilferage. Hu Nu? :lol:

Not sure I share your views about the Russians. Given the Russian history of oppressive regimes, whether headed by a Romanov, a Stalinist, or a vain KGB apparatchik, I have to think that there’s another farm system of autocrats below Putin, just waiting to feed the Russians’ insecurity and anti-American grievance machine. Gorby’s “era of good feeling” lasted just a few years, and Yeltsin was a bumbling clown. Why should we expect the Russians to cooperate with us with the type of long-term thinking necessary to combat the Chinese? (Not that the USA provides a shining example of reasoned and effective realpolitik, diplomacy, or whatever you want to call it. Our policy vis-a-vis Russia — not to mention our “allies” — has been reactive and ad hoc.)
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by Skjellyfetti »

President Donald Trump’s strategy to use import tariffs to protect and boost U.S. manufacturers backfired and led to job losses and higher prices, according to a Federal Reserve study released this week.

“We find that the 2018 tariffs are associated with relative reductions in manufacturing employment and relative increases in producer prices,” concluded Fed economists Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce, in an academic paper.

While the tariffs did reduce competition for some industries in the domestic U.S. market, this was more than offset by the effects of rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs, the study found.

“While the longer-term effects of the tariffs may differ from those that we estimate here, the results indicate that the tariffs, thus far, have not led to increased activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector,” the study said.

Tit-for-tat trade retaliation is an idea best relegated to the past, given the presence of globally interconnected supply chains, the Fed researchers found.

The top ten manufacturing industries hit by foreign retaliatory tariffs were producers of: magnetic and optical media, leather goods, aluminum sheet, iron and steel, motor vehicles, household appliances, sawmills, audio and video equipment, pesticide, and computer equipment.

The top ten industries hit by higher prices were: aluminum sheet, steel product, boilers, forging, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum smelting, architectural metals, transportation equipment, general purpose machinery and household appliances.

The researchers don’t measure the effects on business confidence resulting from the uncertainty regarding U.S. international trade policy. Many economists see this doubt about future government policy as a primary driver in the decline in business investment this year.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-s ... 2019-12-27
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CID1990 »

Ivytalk wrote:
CID1990 wrote:This is sort of related, and should warm all of our hearts a little bit

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... _Most_Read

But the real problem is that we don’t practice realpolitik anymore, and therefore can’t leverage Russian angst over China to improve relations/cooperation


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Schadenfreude strikes again! :rofl:

So we’re not the only victims of Red Chunk Tech pilferage. Hu Nu? :lol:

Not sure I share your views about the Russians. Given the Russian history of oppressive regimes, whether headed by a Romanov, a Stalinist, or a vain KGB apparatchik, I have to think that there’s another farm system of autocrats below Putin, just waiting to feed the Russians’ insecurity and anti-American grievance machine. Gorby’s “era of good feeling” lasted just a few years, and Yeltsin was a bumbling clown. Why should we expect the Russians to cooperate with us with the type of long-term thinking necessary to combat the Chinese? (Not that the USA provides a shining example of reasoned and effective realpolitik, diplomacy, or whatever you want to call it. Our policy vis-a-vis Russia — not to mention our “allies” — has been reactive and ad hoc.)
You’ve just said what I’ve been saying here for a long time - Russia’s stance towards up is nothing more than grievance politics. And our policies towards them since 1991 have been precisely the worst possible - it is as if we were intentionally alienating them and daring them to become defensive about it.

One thing that we could do right now is to call a permanent moratorium on NATO expansion. Our dealings with Georgia, Ukraine, *Montenegro (whose membership Trump signed off on... not exactly the work of a Russian agent) have been the direct irritant prompting Russian belligerence.

Russia, for all its faults, has a long memory and if there is any country on this earth that comes by paranoia honestly, it is them. We don’t have to be BFFs with Russia (impossible given their economic/political structures today) but we can certainly exploit those areas where we have common ground and this is one of those.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by houndawg »

CID1990 wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Schadenfreude strikes again! :rofl:

So we’re not the only victims of Red Chunk Tech pilferage. Hu Nu? :lol:

Not sure I share your views about the Russians. Given the Russian history of oppressive regimes, whether headed by a Romanov, a Stalinist, or a vain KGB apparatchik, I have to think that there’s another farm system of autocrats below Putin, just waiting to feed the Russians’ insecurity and anti-American grievance machine. Gorby’s “era of good feeling” lasted just a few years, and Yeltsin was a bumbling clown. Why should we expect the Russians to cooperate with us with the type of long-term thinking necessary to combat the Chinese? (Not that the USA provides a shining example of reasoned and effective realpolitik, diplomacy, or whatever you want to call it. Our policy vis-a-vis Russia — not to mention our “allies” — has been reactive and ad hoc.)
You’ve just said what I’ve been saying here for a long time - Russia’s stance towards up is nothing more than grievance politics. And our policies towards them since 1991 have been precisely the worst possible - it is as if we were intentionally alienating them and daring them to become defensive about it.

One thing that we could do right now is to call a permanent moratorium on NATO expansion. Our dealings with Georgia, Ukraine, *Montenegro (whose membership Trump signed off on... not exactly the work of a Russian agent) have been the direct irritant prompting Russian belligerence.

Russia, for all its faults, has a long memory and if there is any country on this earth that comes by paranoia honestly, it is them. We don’t have to be BFFs with Russia (impossible given their economic/political structures today) but we can certainly exploit those areas where we have common ground and this is one of those.

They're commies, dude. You're the last person here I expected to go all soft and weepy about the commies. Just have the Space Force drop a few rods to remind them who's the Superpower and who's the third world country with hypersonic missiles. :ohno:
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CID1990 »

houndawg wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
You’ve just said what I’ve been saying here for a long time - Russia’s stance towards up is nothing more than grievance politics. And our policies towards them since 1991 have been precisely the worst possible - it is as if we were intentionally alienating them and daring them to become defensive about it.

One thing that we could do right now is to call a permanent moratorium on NATO expansion. Our dealings with Georgia, Ukraine, *Montenegro (whose membership Trump signed off on... not exactly the work of a Russian agent) have been the direct irritant prompting Russian belligerence.

Russia, for all its faults, has a long memory and if there is any country on this earth that comes by paranoia honestly, it is them. We don’t have to be BFFs with Russia (impossible given their economic/political structures today) but we can certainly exploit those areas where we have common ground and this is one of those.

They're commies, dude. You're the last person here I expected to go all soft and weepy about the commies. Just have the Space Force drop a few rods to remind them who's the Superpower and who's the third world country with hypersonic missiles. :ohno:
Immaterial and incorrect

De jure Houndawg


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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by houndawg »

CID1990 wrote:
houndawg wrote:

They're commies, dude. You're the last person here I expected to go all soft and weepy about the commies. Just have the Space Force drop a few rods to remind them who's the Superpower and who's the third world country with hypersonic missiles. :ohno:
Immaterial and incorrect

De jure Houndawg


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You take yourself way too seriously. :nod:

Detracts from the aw shucks I'm just a country boy thing. :geek:
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CAA Flagship »

mainejeff2 wrote:Good god.....this Trump speech.....talk about rambling. :lol:
:lol: :lol: :nod: :nod:

Let him go. It's one of those rare times where he doesn't sound demented.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by 89Hen »

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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by Ivytalk »

89Hen wrote:Image
I think Mike Pence is a cyborg. Just had to get that off my chest.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by Ibanez »

Ivytalk wrote:
89Hen wrote:Image
I think Mike Pence is a cyborg. Just had to get that off my chest.
Aliens definitely exist, Britain's first astronaut has said -- and it's possible they're living among us on Earth but have gone undetected so far.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by AZGrizFan »

Skjellyfetti wrote:
President Donald Trump’s strategy to use import tariffs to protect and boost U.S. manufacturers backfired and led to job losses and higher prices, according to a Federal Reserve study released this week.

“We find that the 2018 tariffs are associated with relative reductions in manufacturing employment and relative increases in producer prices,” concluded Fed economists Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce, in an academic paper.

While the tariffs did reduce competition for some industries in the domestic U.S. market, this was more than offset by the effects of rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs, the study found.

“While the longer-term effects of the tariffs may differ from those that we estimate here, the results indicate that the tariffs, thus far, have not led to increased activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector,” the study said.

Tit-for-tat trade retaliation is an idea best relegated to the past, given the presence of globally interconnected supply chains, the Fed researchers found.

The top ten manufacturing industries hit by foreign retaliatory tariffs were producers of: magnetic and optical media, leather goods, aluminum sheet, iron and steel, motor vehicles, household appliances, sawmills, audio and video equipment, pesticide, and computer equipment.

The top ten industries hit by higher prices were: aluminum sheet, steel product, boilers, forging, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum smelting, architectural metals, transportation equipment, general purpose machinery and household appliances.

The researchers don’t measure the effects on business confidence resulting from the uncertainty regarding U.S. international trade policy. Many economists see this doubt about future government policy as a primary driver in the decline in business investment this year.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-s ... 2019-12-27
Very few here would argue that the short term impact of Trump's tariff war with China was net negative to the economy (one of the MANY underlying issues that make the economic performance over the past 30 months so amazing -- THAT'S FOR YOU, JSO). But, trying to measure the long term effect of the tariff activity this early is like trying to predict the two participants and the final score of the 2025 Super Bowl right now. In other words, a waste of time.

And secondly, while the author may be ultimately right (and I'm not suggesting he is), SOMETHING had to be tried other than the status quo. 50 years of the same approach and it getting worse and worse and worse wasn't going to get us anywhere. Trump is literally the only person willing to do that because he's not a politician. I'm fine with the effort and attempt, even if it ultimately doesn't work.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by UNI88 »

Ivytalk wrote:
89Hen wrote:Image
I think Mike Pence is a cyborg. Just had to get that off my chest.
I think he's wearing lady's underwear and daydreaming about being a tranny.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by HI54UNI »

Ivytalk wrote:
89Hen wrote:Image
I think Mike Pence is a cyborg. Just had to get that off my chest.
He's the Religious Terminator so could be......
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Very few here would argue that the short term impact of Trump's tariff war with China was net negative to the economy (one of the MANY underlying issues that make the economic performance over the past 30 months so amazing -- THAT'S FOR YOU, JSO). But, trying to measure the long term effect of the tariff activity this early is like trying to predict the two participants and the final score of the 2025 Super Bowl right now. In other words, a waste of time.

And secondly, while the author may be ultimately right (and I'm not suggesting he is), SOMETHING had to be tried other than the status quo. 50 years of the same approach and it getting worse and worse and worse wasn't going to get us anywhere. Trump is literally the only person willing to do that because he's not a politician. I'm fine with the effort and attempt, even if it ultimately doesn't work.
Me too mostly - I've noticed that some of the farmers around are a bit touchy about being called welfare queens though
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

houndawg wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Very few here would argue that the short term impact of Trump's tariff war with China was net negative to the economy (one of the MANY underlying issues that make the economic performance over the past 30 months so amazing -- THAT'S FOR YOU, JSO). But, trying to measure the long term effect of the tariff activity this early is like trying to predict the two participants and the final score of the 2025 Super Bowl right now. In other words, a waste of time.

And secondly, while the author may be ultimately right (and I'm not suggesting he is), SOMETHING had to be tried other than the status quo. 50 years of the same approach and it getting worse and worse and worse wasn't going to get us anywhere. Trump is literally the only person willing to do that because he's not a politician. I'm fine with the effort and attempt, even if it ultimately doesn't work.
Me too mostly - I've noticed that some of the farmers around are a bit touchy about being called welfare queens though

How's the growing season in that area?

I ask because where I grew up, the Golden triangle, farmers were done by mid August at the latest. Where my wife's family farms, still in Montana, they some years can't even get crops off the fields due to weather.
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by UNI88 »

mainejeff2 wrote:The old way farming is not going to cut it with the rapid change of environmental factors, the loss of agri land and the booming worldwide population......yet our Federal Government keeps throwing gobs of money at it for political gain and votes.
The booming worldwide population is the 800 lb gorilla that no one wants to address.

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