Chinese Trade War

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Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby JohnStOnge » Thu May 09, 2019 5:59 pm

CID1990 wrote:
mainejeff wrote:
On Jan. 23, 2009 when Obama took office.....the Dow stood at 8077. When he left office it was 19827 on Jan.20, 2017. That's +11750 (+168%).

When Trump took office on Jan.20, 2017 the Dow stood at 19827. It now stands at 25967. That's +6140 (+31%)

You must be one of those horrible emotional investors if you didn't get higher returns from 2009-2017. :thumb:

:coffee:


Where’s JSO?

He usually vets numbers and stuff


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It's not numbers in this case. In my opinion it is and always has been the positions to two governments are in along with the fact that US consumers have become accustomed to cheap Chinese goods.

I saw a female talking head say something about it the other day. I can't remember it exactly but it was basically that China thinks in terms of centuries and millenia while the US thinks in terms of days and months.

There's also the fact that China's government doesn't have to worry about being overturned during elections. They can take short term perturbations.

I continue to think Trump will lose on this matter. I think that if Trump thinks he has the advantage in this he could not be more wrong. We'll see.
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Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby Ivytalk » Thu May 09, 2019 6:54 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
Where’s JSO?

He usually vets numbers and stuff


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It's not numbers in this case. In my opinion it is and always has been the positions to two governments are in along with the fact that US consumers have become accustomed to cheap Chinese goods.

I saw a female talking head say something about it the other day. I can't remember it exactly but it was basically that China thinks in terms of centuries and millenia while the US thinks in terms of days and months.

There's also the fact that China's government doesn't have to worry about being overturned during elections. They can take short term perturbations.

I continue to think Trump will lose on this matter. I think that if Trump thinks he has the advantage in this he could not be more wrong. We'll see.

Perturbations? Like a 500% tariff on eggrolls and cheap appliances?
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby mainejeff » Fri May 10, 2019 4:18 am

SeattleGriz wrote:
mainejeff wrote:
You must be one of those people that puts all of their money in cash when someone you don't like is running things. Pathetic.

:coffee:


By putting it all in cash, you mean letting the financial advisor run your 401, then yes, I am guilty.

Twice the man, twice the return.


You need to fire your financial advisor.

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby ALPHAGRIZ1 » Fri May 10, 2019 8:44 am

mainejeff wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:Nope. Obama 7.5% Trump 15%
Twice as good and twice the man.


You must be one of those people that puts all of their money in cash when someone you don't like is running things. Pathetic.

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Using Obama logic, the Muslim was reaping the benefits of Bushs economy

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Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby houndawg » Fri May 10, 2019 7:13 pm

CID1990 wrote:I enjoy seeing people who criticized Trump for trashing the TPP also criticizing him about trade negotiations with China

TPP - we lose no matter what

Trade negotiations with China (with tariff lever) - maybe we lose


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I'm OK with putting tariffs on the Chinese, it doesn't have much impact on me, but getting tough with your banker....? Good luck with that...
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby AZGrizFan » Fri May 10, 2019 7:18 pm

mainejeff wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:Not as well as it is now.


On Jan. 23, 2009 when Obama took office.....the Dow stood at 8077. When he left office it was 19827 on Jan.20, 2017. That's +11750 (+168%).

When Trump took office on Jan.20, 2017 the Dow stood at 19827. It now stands at 25967. That's +6140 (+31%)

You must be one of those horrible emotional investors if you didn't get higher returns from 2009-2017. :thumb:

:coffee:


145%, not 168%.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby SeattleGriz » Fri May 10, 2019 10:21 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
mainejeff wrote:
On Jan. 23, 2009 when Obama took office.....the Dow stood at 8077. When he left office it was 19827 on Jan.20, 2017. That's +11750 (+168%).

When Trump took office on Jan.20, 2017 the Dow stood at 19827. It now stands at 25967. That's +6140 (+31%)

You must be one of those horrible emotional investors if you didn't get higher returns from 2009-2017. :thumb:

:coffee:


145%, not 168%.


You need to fire yourself.

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby UNI88 » Sat May 11, 2019 11:22 am

AZGrizFan wrote:
mainejeff wrote:
On Jan. 23, 2009 when Obama took office.....the Dow stood at 8077. When he left office it was 19827 on Jan.20, 2017. That's +11750 (+168%).

When Trump took office on Jan.20, 2017 the Dow stood at 19827. It now stands at 25967. That's +6140 (+31%)

You must be one of those horrible emotional investors if you didn't get higher returns from 2009-2017. :thumb:

:coffee:


145%, not 168%.


Good catch. It also helps to understand that the gain from 2009 to 2017 averages out to an approximately 11.88% increase per year for Obama. The average annual increase for Trump over his first 2.25 years was approximately 12.67%. The numbers tell a different story when you look at them on an annual rather than total basis.

The numbers probably aren't nearly as close if you use election day as the starting point since the market dropped nearly 20% between Obama's election and inauguration and it went up approximately 8% for Trump.

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Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby mainejeff » Mon May 13, 2019 3:57 am

Another $200 Billion tax increase being passed on to U.S. consumers by the Republican Donald J. Trump. :ohno:

#Sad.

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Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby SeattleGriz » Mon May 13, 2019 4:58 am

What about Trump's Asian tour in November of 2017? Seems he was setting up trade with all the countries near China. It's like he expected the Chinese to pull their crap.

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Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby mainejeff » Mon May 13, 2019 5:07 am

If this was a Dem President instead of a Republican "negotiating" with China.....you guys would be flipping out. :thumb:

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Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby mainejeff » Mon May 13, 2019 7:36 am

Glub Glub.

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby AZGrizFan » Mon May 13, 2019 7:53 am

SeattleGriz wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
145%, not 168%.


You need to fire yourself.

:coffee:


I fire 6.93% of myself every day. :coffee: :coffee:
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby AZGrizFan » Mon May 13, 2019 7:55 am

UNI88 wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
145%, not 168%.


Good catch. It also helps to understand that the gain from 2009 to 2017 averages out to an approximately 11.88% increase per year for Obama. The average annual increase for Trump over his first 2.25 years was approximately 12.67%. The numbers tell a different story when you look at them on an annual rather than total basis.

The numbers probably aren't nearly as close if you use election day as the starting point since the market dropped nearly 20% between Obama's election and inauguration and it went up approximately 8% for Trump.


Uhhh….145%/8 years = 18.125%/ year.
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby UNI88 » Mon May 13, 2019 7:55 am

mainejeff wrote:If this was a Dem President instead of a Republican "negotiating" with China.....you guys would be flipping out. :thumb:

:coffee:
True but the reverse is also true for you and others if it were a Democrat.

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby UNI88 » Mon May 13, 2019 7:56 am

AZGrizFan wrote:
UNI88 wrote:
Good catch. It also helps to understand that the gain from 2009 to 2017 averages out to an approximately 11.88% increase per year for Obama. The average annual increase for Trump over his first 2.25 years was approximately 12.67%. The numbers tell a different story when you look at them on an annual rather than total basis.

The numbers probably aren't nearly as close if you use election day as the starting point since the market dropped nearly 20% between Obama's election and inauguration and it went up approximately 8% for Trump.


Uhhh….145%/8 years = 18.125%/ year.


Compounding.

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby AZGrizFan » Mon May 13, 2019 8:03 am

UNI88 wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Uhhh….145%/8 years = 18.125%/ year.


Compounding.

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Chinese Trade War

Postby mainejeff » Mon May 13, 2019 10:02 am

#Winning.

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby mainejeff » Mon May 13, 2019 6:06 pm

mainejeff wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:Not as well as it is now.


On Jan. 23, 2009 when Obama took office.....the Dow stood at 8077. When he left office it was 19827 on Jan.20, 2017. That's +11750 (+168%).

When Trump took office on Jan.20, 2017 the Dow stood at 19827. It now stands at 25967. That's +6140 (+31%)

You must be one of those horrible emotional investors if you didn't get higher returns from 2009-2017. :thumb:

:coffee:


Guess that this will have to be re-calculated.

:coffee:
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby UNI88 » Mon May 13, 2019 6:31 pm

mainejeff wrote:
mainejeff wrote:
On Jan. 23, 2009 when Obama took office.....the Dow stood at 8077. When he left office it was 19827 on Jan.20, 2017. That's +11750 (+168%).

When Trump took office on Jan.20, 2017 the Dow stood at 19827. It now stands at 25967. That's +6140 (+31%)

You must be one of those horrible emotional investors if you didn't get higher returns from 2009-2017. :thumb:

:coffee:


Guess that this will have to be re-calculated.

:coffee:
So Trump's annual average return isn't beating Obama's average annual return by quite as much?

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade Negotiations

Postby AZGrizFan » Mon May 13, 2019 6:59 pm

mainejeff wrote:
mainejeff wrote:
On Jan. 23, 2009 when Obama took office.....the Dow stood at 8077. When he left office it was 19827 on Jan.20, 2017. That's +11750 (+168%).

When Trump took office on Jan.20, 2017 the Dow stood at 19827. It now stands at 25967. That's +6140 (+31%)

You must be one of those horrible emotional investors if you didn't get higher returns from 2009-2017. :thumb:

:coffee:


Guess that this will have to be re-calculated.

:coffee:


Right. Because it NEVER went down during Oblowma’s presidency, right? :dunce:
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue May 14, 2019 3:24 pm

Heard a British Ambassador to China talking about it today on NPR. Her take included the idea that the Chinese political system is such that they can play the long game in a way US politicians cannot. Nevertheless, she was optimistic about things working out.

All other things aside, we have a complete idiot leading the US side. I think what's going to happen is that at some point Trump is going to claim victory when nothing really changed then periodically lie as necessary to reinforce the impression he hopes to create.

The well known true story about Trump having construction workers move dirt around on a development site ot make it look to investors like progress was being made when it really wasn't captures Trump in a nutshell. It's what he does. Con man to the core.
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Postby SeattleGriz » Tue May 14, 2019 4:05 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:Heard a British Ambassador to China talking about it today on NPR. Her take included the idea that the Chinese political system is such that they can play the long game in a way US politicians cannot. Nevertheless, she was optimistic about things working out.

All other things aside, we have a complete idiot leading the US side. I think what's going to happen is that at some point Trump is going to claim victory when nothing really changed then periodically lie as necessary to reinforce the impression he hopes to create.

The well known true story about Trump having construction workers move dirt around on a development site ot make it look to investors like progress was being made when it really wasn't captures Trump in a nutshell. It's what he does. Con man to the core.
Did you not pay attention to what Trump's team has been doing? They've been looking at this and preparing long before they started. Knew China was going to pull this and started negotiations with S Korea, Vietnam and a couple others in Nov, 2017 about replacing China as the supplier.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Postby CID1990 » Tue May 14, 2019 4:30 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:Heard a British Ambassador to China talking about it today on NPR. Her take included the idea that the Chinese political system is such that they can play the long game in a way US politicians cannot. Nevertheless, she was optimistic about things working out.

All other things aside, we have a complete idiot leading the US side. I think what's going to happen is that at some point Trump is going to claim victory when nothing really changed then periodically lie as necessary to reinforce the impression he hopes to create.

The well known true story about Trump having construction workers move dirt around on a development site ot make it look to investors like progress was being made when it really wasn't captures Trump in a nutshell. It's what he does. Con man to the core.


And if the trade war ends with favorable Chinese concessions you’ll be sure to say it didn’t happen

It’s ironic, you calling Trump predictable.... accusing him of having a regular MO


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Re: Chinese Trade War

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue May 14, 2019 5:13 pm

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:Heard a British Ambassador to China talking about it today on NPR. Her take included the idea that the Chinese political system is such that they can play the long game in a way US politicians cannot. Nevertheless, she was optimistic about things working out.

All other things aside, we have a complete idiot leading the US side. I think what's going to happen is that at some point Trump is going to claim victory when nothing really changed then periodically lie as necessary to reinforce the impression he hopes to create.

The well known true story about Trump having construction workers move dirt around on a development site ot make it look to investors like progress was being made when it really wasn't captures Trump in a nutshell. It's what he does. Con man to the core.


And if the trade war ends with favorable Chinese concessions you’ll be sure to say it didn’t happen

It'll be hard to tell if that happens because you go on knowing Trump is going to claim things went well whether they did or not.

If the "mainstream media" say the trade war ends with favorable Chinese concessions I will believe it. I will not believe it based on Trump and/or his administration saying it.
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