JohnStOnge wrote:UNI88 wrote:
I know Trump is a con man. But I'm also able to be intellectually honest and admit he's done some good things and had positive accomplishments.
You focus on quantitative evidence and ignore qualitative evidence.
First I must say that I woke up on November 9, 2016, thinking the economy was going to suffer from Trump being elected. I thought, for example, that people would flee the stock market because an unstable, mentally ill person was going to be in that position. I did not think people would want to bet on the future under that circumstance and that they would try to cut their losses. And I thought that if he launched into the protectionist economic plans that would hurt the economy.
The data do not suggest that happened so I was wrong. I have no problem saying that.
I do focus on quantitative evidence and I think that if someone is going to claim they've improved something they need to be able to measure that improvement. I think there are instances in which quantitative assessment is not needed. If you're walking through Chicago, you see someone shoot someone else, and the someone else dies you don't need quantitative analysis to say getting shot resulted in death. But something like saying a President caused a change in the economy is different. In my opinion you can never show cause and effect. And if one is going to say that there is even suggestion of cause and effect one needs to, or SHOULD need to, show that there is evidence in the economic data of a change beyond the variation that has been occurring in the recent past.
John, there you go moving the goalposts back to where you feel comfortable. The argument isn't that the economy got better under Trump compared to Obama (although in types of jobs created I would argue that it did) but that Trump's "accomplishment" was to keep the economy chugging along despite severe headwinds that Obama didn't face. You can't prove/disprove the headwinds with statistics so you ignore it and argue against something you can use statistics against.
We're in the midst of what I believe is the 2nd longest economic expansion in US history. It might make it to #1 before it ends. That is significant.
On my type of jobs comment. Slightly more jobs were created at the end of Obama's presidency than at the start of Trump's but look at the type of jobs created. More government jobs were created under Obama while more manufacturing and other private sector jobs were created under Trump. I believe that private sector jobs are much more valuable to the economy than government jobs.
The economy isn't as simple as numbers that give you a line on a graph. There are a myriad of variables and factors that impact it. How well it is doing depends on your perspective and priorities.
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