The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

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The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Col Hogan » Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:47 am

The polls were unequivocal. In 2016, two days before Michigan’s Democratic primary, the respected Marist poll predicted that Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide, with 57 percent of the vote to Bernie Sanders’s 40 percent. On the morning of the March 8 primary, James Hohmann of The Washington Post wrote, “Michigan should have been fertile territory for Bernie Sanders’s populist and protectionist message, but he’s expected to lose the Democratic primary there today by double digits.” That night is mostly remembered for the marathon coverage of a bizarre press conference in which Donald Trump, who had just won three primaries of his own, shamelessly hawked Trump Steaks and Trump Wine. But if TV viewers had squinted at the crawl, they would have noticed that Sanders was pulling off a stunning, poll-defying upset—defeating Clinton by 1.5 percent. At the time, Nate Silver called it “among the greatest polling errors in primary history.”


https://newrepublic.com/article/154124/ ... try-crisis

And yet the media (liberal and conservative alike) continue running story after story using polling data that is not worth much at all...and people like our own poll expert here CS continue defending them...

To take roughly one week in May, they produced such headlines as, “Biden dominates Dem rivals in new early primary polls” (Politico), “Warren’s rebound? Massachusetts senator gains footing in polls” (Fox News), and “Brutal new 2020 numbers for Beto O’Rourke and Bill de Blasio” (The Washington Post). What these stories didn’t mention is that today, seven months before Iowa, polls are about as accurate as a blunderbuss, and most pollsters know it.


So, how can an industry that has had so many big misses continue to thrive...and grow...

Well, the 24 hour news cycle is a major reason...the need for political news is inordinate and “polls” can be done by each side to show their “strength “ with voters...

To explain the wild fluctuations in their numbers, pollsters and their eager enablers in the press have created an artificial narrative of candidates bouncing up and down as if the campaign were conducted on pogo sticks. As Karlyn Bowman, a polling analyst for American Enterprise Institute, said, “Pollsters think that it’s good for business to have a new poll almost every morning.” Some are experimenting with online and texting polls. But until they come up with a reliable substitute, almost all of them are forced to fudge the numbers, artificially inflating the responses they get from, say, young voters.


The press pack, for its part, cannot shake its addiction to polls any more than candidates can resist the lure of TV cameras. Even if reporters could return to practicing retro journalism—divining the leaders, not with polls, but by talking to voters, county party officials, and other insiders—all those people are now glued to the polls, too, and their responses are as canned as an MSNBC talking head’s. We’re left with no other choice than to endure horse race journalism while the horses are still doing their morning workouts.
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby CAA Flagship » Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:52 am

:o "Say it ain't so"
- JSO

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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Ivytalk » Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:53 am

Congrats to Hogie for his masterful, detailed troll of JSO.
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Chizzang » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:42 am

Remember: almost nobody voted for Trump

:nod:

and only two Republicans on this forum (to this day) admit to voting for Trump
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Ivytalk » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:55 am

Chizzang wrote:Remember: almost nobody voted for Trump

:nod:

and only two Republicans on this forum (to this day) admit to voting for Trump


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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Chizzang » Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:00 am

Ivytalk wrote:
Chizzang wrote:Remember: almost nobody voted for Trump

:nod:

and only two Republicans on this forum (to this day) admit to voting for Trump


Why would anyone ever lie on an Internet political forum?



:lol:
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Ivytalk » Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:46 am

Chizzang wrote:Remember: almost nobody voted for Trump

:nod:

and only two Republicans on this forum (to this day) admit to voting for Trump


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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Col Hogan » Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:29 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
Chizzang wrote:Remember: almost nobody voted for Trump

:nod:

and only two Republicans on this forum (to this day) admit to voting for Trump


Alfie and BDK. Did I miss anyone?


Cleats thinks only republicans voted for Trump...
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Chizzang » Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:35 pm

Col Hogan wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:
Alfie and BDK. Did I miss anyone?


Cleats thinks only republicans voted for Trump...


I'm pretty sure nobody did actually... (Depending on who you ask)

:lol:
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby ALPHAGRIZ1 » Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:50 pm

Chizzang wrote:Remember: almost nobody voted for Trump

:nod:

and only two Republicans on this forum (to this day) admit to voting for Trump



What republicans voted for Trump on here?
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Chizzang » Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:57 pm

*which
Q: Name something that offends Republicans?
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby ALPHAGRIZ1 » Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:00 pm

Answer the question you semantic jagoff
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby JohnStOnge » Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:24 pm

CAA Flagship wrote::o "Say it ain't so"
- JSO


Ok. It ain't so. The Michigan example from the 2016 Democrat primary is an example where the polls were indeed way off. But such examples are rare. The polls are correct WAY more often than they are not.

The polls suggested that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote.

The polls suggested that the Democrats would take the House in 2018. The Democrats took the House in 2018.

In the 2016 Presidential race, if you look at the State by State averages complied by RCP, the candidate that led in the RCP average of polls won in 42 of the 46 jurisdictions for which averages were reported.

It's absolutely ridiculous to say that the polls don't tell you anything. It's the "in" thing to to. But it's absurd. If you predict the winners of political races based on the polls you are going to be right WAY more often than you're going to be wrong. Like 90% of the time at least. And if you take random sampling error into account before you make a call you're going to be right a lot more often than that.
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby kalm » Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:07 pm

Col Hogan wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:
Alfie and BDK. Did I miss anyone?


Cleats thinks only republicans voted for Trump...


Pretty much. And a few conservatives and moderates who voted against Hillary. :lol:
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Ivytalk » Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:48 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote::o "Say it ain't so"
- JSO


Ok. It ain't so. The Michigan example from the 2016 Democrat primary is an example where the polls were indeed way off. But such examples are rare. The polls are correct WAY more often than they are not.

The polls suggested that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote.

The polls suggested that the Democrats would take the House in 2018. The Democrats took the House in 2018.

In the 2016 Presidential race, if you look at the State by State averages complied by RCP, the candidate that led in the RCP average of polls won in 42 of the 46 jurisdictions for which averages were reported.

It's absolutely ridiculous to say that the polls don't tell you anything. It's the "in" thing to to. But it's absurd. If you predict the winners of political races based on the polls you are going to be right WAY more often than you're going to be wrong. Like 90% of the time at least. And if you take random sampling error into account before you make a call you're going to be right a lot more often than that.

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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby CAA Flagship » Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:05 am

Ivytalk wrote:
Chizzang wrote:Remember: almost nobody voted for Trump

:nod:

and only two Republicans on this forum (to this day) admit to voting for Trump


Alfie and BDK. Did I miss anyone?

I voted for Trump over Clinton. I didn't vote for him in the primary.
When you are at bat with two strikes, you have to swing at anything that is close. :coffee:

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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby kalm » Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:15 am

CAA Flagship wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:
Alfie and BDK. Did I miss anyone?

I voted for Trump over Clinton. I didn't vote for him in the primary.
When you are at bat with two strikes, you have to swing at anything that is close. :coffee:


No you don't.
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby CAA Flagship » Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:22 am

kalm wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:I voted for Trump over Clinton. I didn't vote for him in the primary.
When you are at bat with two strikes, you have to swing at anything that is close. :coffee:


No you don't.

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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby bluehenbillk » Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:39 am

I voted for him.
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Chizzang » Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:28 am

Jill Stein is horrified by theses results...

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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Chizzang » Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:29 am

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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby CAA Flagship » Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:36 am

Chizzang wrote:Jill Stein is horrified by theses results...


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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby GannonFan » Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:01 am

Chizzang wrote:Jill Stein is horrified by theses results...

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There's my protest vote! :thumb:
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby ALPHAGRIZ1 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:41 am

I still want the list of republicans that voted for Trump.
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Re: The Polling Industry Is in Crisis

Postby Ivytalk » Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:53 am

ALPHAGRIZ1 wrote:I still want the list of republicans that voted for Trump.


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