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Lowest 30 year bond rate EVER.



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-y ... 31971.html

Buckle up, kids! Gonna be a bumpy ride!

On a positive note, if you've got any $$ in precious metals, those are going through the roof in the past couple days...up over 10% in just the past month alone.

https://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/ag1825nyb.html

Durrr ORANGE MAN BAD Durrrrahhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!

Don't forget, he is bringing China to it's knees:

China's economy worsens in July, industrial growth at 17-year low as trade war escalates

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1V404X

The inverted yield curve has accurately predicted 50 of the last 5 recessions.

CitadelGrad wrote:The inverted yield curve has accurately predicted 50 of the last 5 recessions.

oooohhhh….SO, so close...

Thanks for playing!

CAA Flagship wrote:Don't forget, he is bringing China to it's knees:

China's economy worsens in July, industrial growth at 17-year low as trade war escalates

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1V404X

Hyperbole much...

Chizzang wrote:

CAA Flagship wrote:Don't forget, he is bringing China to it's knees:

China's economy worsens in July, industrial growth at 17-year low as trade war escalates

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1V404X

Hyperbole much...

Agreed. The trade war is one factor, but it's one of many affecting Chinese growth. Some are self-inflicted, but ultimately the natural growth from an agrarian-to-industrial society is going to be much larger than an industrialized nation becoming more industrialized (which is now the case with China).

A projected growth of 5.8% is still no joke though; we'd be ecstatic for those numbers.

DUrrrr ORANGE MAN REALLY BAD DURRAHHHHHHHH!

∞∞∞ wrote:

Chizzang wrote:
Hyperbole much...

Agreed. The trade war is one factor, but it's one of many affecting Chinese growth. Some are self-inflicted, but ultimately the natural growth from an agrarian-to-industrial society is going to be much larger than an industrialized nation becoming more industrialized (which is now the case with China).

A projected growth of 5.8% is still no joke though; we'd be ecstatic for those numbers.

That's akin to a recession for China.

AZGrizFan wrote:

CitadelGrad wrote:The inverted yield curve has accurately predicted 50 of the last 5 recessions.

oooohhhh….SO, so close...

Thanks for playing!

I can't count the number of times some dude on CNBC predicted a recession that never occurred because the yield curve was inverted.

CitadelGrad wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:

oooohhhh….SO, so close...

Thanks for playing!

I can't count the number of times some dude on CNBC predicted a recession that never occurred because the yield curve was inverted.

Inverted yield curve is batting 1000 since 1970. Its not instantanous, however. An inverted yield curve has preceded EVERY recession by 6-9 months since 1970. So buckle up.

AZGrizFan wrote:On a positive note, if you've got any $$ in precious metals, those are going through the roof in the past couple days...up over 10% in just the past month alone.

https://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/ag1825nyb.html

Been watching this one...metals balance out my portfolio, so while one is down, the other is up...significantly...

And yesterday the 30 year went BELOW 2%, sitting at 1.98%. The entire curve is now officially inverted. That means recession before next spring.

Looks like JSO and Bill Maher are going to get their wish. Fucking assholes wishing ill will on all Americans because they don't like somebody. 300 million people have to suffer so they can get their way.

Honestly, I think we're in uncharted waters and no economist really knows where things will go.

You've got a trade deal going on and you have talks at the fed of cutting interest rates after an extended period of growth. I'm not so sure how using historical data really applies here.

Pwns wrote:Honestly, I think we're in uncharted waters and no economist really knows where things will go.

You've got a trade deal going on and you have talks at the fed of cutting interest rates after an extended period of growth. I'm not so sure how using historical data really applies here.

Well, lets hope the last 50 years of economic data are somehow wrong.

AZGrizFan wrote:And yesterday the 30 year went BELOW 2%, sitting at 1.98%. The entire curve is now officially inverted. That means recession before next spring.

Looks like JSO and Bill Maher are going to get their wish. Fucking assholes wishing ill will on all Americans because they don't like somebody. 300 million people have to suffer so they can get their way.

Inversion doesn't have anything to do with what level a bond yield is at. It has to do with the bond yield relative to the other bond yields. The 30 year yield was still above the 2, 5, and 10 year yields where it belongs. So not sure what you are saying there.

CAA Flagship wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:And yesterday the 30 year went BELOW 2%, sitting at 1.98%. The entire curve is now officially inverted. That means recession before next spring.

Looks like JSO and Bill Maher are going to get their wish. Fucking assholes wishing ill will on all Americans because they don't like somebody. 300 million people have to suffer so they can get their way.

Inversion doesn't have anything to do with what level a bond yield is at. It has to do with the bond yield relative to the other bond yields. The 30 year yield was still above the 2, 5, and 10 year yields where it belongs. So not sure what you are saying there.

True. I misspoke slightly...I was looking at the ENTIRE curve, including the 1 mo and 2 mo bills....we might yet be safe!

When even Paul Krugman says you shouldn't panic yet...
Though the idea that doesn't have any good historical comparisons isn't really a reassuring thing.

Well recessions are a bit born from self-fulfilling prophecies.

Theoretically, you can have an indefinitely strong economy without ever running across a recession (as long as good economic practices are maintained). Of course human irrationality makes it nearly impossible. We see "signs" of a recession, horde money, stop investing, sell assets, not hiring, etc...and create a recession.

I believe a recession will happen not because of the inverted yield curve or any other "sign," but companies, investors, and even regular people are beginning to act like a recession is going to happen.

Pwns wrote:When even Paul Krugman says you shouldn't panic yet...

Though the idea that doesn't have any good historical comparisons isn't really a reassuring thing.

That is a pretty hilarious article written a day before Lehman Bros imploded.

∞∞∞ wrote:Well recessions are a bit born from self-fulfilling prophecies.

Theoretically, you can have an indefinitely strong economy without ever running across a recession (as long as good economic practices are maintained). Of course human irrationality makes it nearly impossible. We see "signs" of a recession, horde money, stop investing, sell assets, not hiring, etc...and create a recession.

I believe a recession will happen not because of the inverted yield curve or any other "sign," but companies, investors, and even regular people are beginning to act like a recession is going to happen.

Holy SHIT. Treep and I agree on something!!!

I guess the recession was postponed for another day today.

Skjellyfetti wrote:

Pwns wrote:When even Paul Krugman says you shouldn't panic yet...

Though the idea that doesn't have any good historical comparisons isn't really a reassuring thing.

That is a pretty hilarious article written a day before Lehman Bros imploded.

One of the funniest KB scenes EVER.

Pwns wrote:When even Paul Krugman says you shouldn't panic yet...

Though the idea that doesn't have any good historical comparisons isn't really a reassuring thing.

As usual, when Krugman the Economist writes something, it’s 20% economics and 80% liberal Archie Bunker


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