Coronavirus COVID-19

[Gil Dobie]

Still way over the average CDC recorded number of flu deaths of 3000-15,000 deaths per season, by quite a bit.

And your point? The unnecessary and totally fabricated fear porn destroyed the global economy.

Another attempt at fear mongering, global economy is destroyed. It's a setback and numbers are similar to the great depression. But it's a different circumstance. Many of the workers will be back to work within a year, many can collect unemployment which did not exist in 1929. Sure there will be some that have to make changes. Places are opening up again, we have been eating from the same restaurants, just eating at home. Getting the same groceries, only picking them up instead of going to the store. It's not the great depression as the fear mongers and media are projecting.

[GannonFan]

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/fl ... 8-2019.htm

Last 2 flu seasons were 79k (2017-2018) and 61k (2018-2019).

Those are estimates from CDC models and algorithms, I said actual reported flu deaths.

So you're undercounting on purpose then, no?

[UNI88]

And your point? The unnecessary and totally fabricated fear porn destroyed the global economy.

Another attempt at fear mongering, global economy is destroyed. It's a setback and numbers are similar to the great depression. But it's a different circumstance. Many of the workers will be back to work within a year, many can collect unemployment which did not exist in 1929. Sure there will be some that have to make changes. Places are opening up again, we have been eating from the same restaurants, just eating at home. Getting the same groceries, only picking them up instead of going to the store. It's not the great depression as the fear mongers and media are projecting.

Gil, I don't think it's fear mongering to say that if we don't open things back up (and I support being reasonably cautious) and get people back to work that the number of unemployed will overwhelm the governments' (plural) ability provide unemployment and other services. I don't know how it will compare to the Great Depression but this has the potential to make 2008 look like a hiccup. The answer isn't to "listen to the doctors." The answer is to balance what the doctors are saying with economic, sociological and psychological considerations.

Has anyone addressed AZ's (and SD's) point about 10x as many people being infected as originally thought?

[Gil Dobie]

Those are estimates from CDC models and algorithms, I said actual reported flu deaths.

So you're undercounting on purpose then, no?

Actual count, yes.

[Gil Dobie]

Another attempt at fear mongering, global economy is destroyed. It's a setback and numbers are similar to the great depression. But it's a different circumstance. Many of the workers will be back to work within a year, many can collect unemployment which did not exist in 1929. Sure there will be some that have to make changes. Places are opening up again, we have been eating from the same restaurants, just eating at home. Getting the same groceries, only picking them up instead of going to the store. It's not the great depression as the fear mongers and media are projecting.

Gil, I don't think it's fear mongering to say that if we don't open things back up (and I support being reasonably cautious) and get people back to work that the number of unemployed will overwhelm the governments' (plural) ability provide unemployment and other services. I don't know how it will compare to the Great Depression but this has the potential to make 2008 look like a hiccup. The answer isn't to "listen to the doctors." The answer is to balance what the doctors are saying with economic, sociological and psychological considerations.

Has anyone addressed AZ's (and SD's) point about 10x as many people being infected as originally thought?

We are opening up. I've said that in every post. And and don't agree with AZ and SD point about 10x as many people being infected. It's probably more like 30x as many have been infected, 10% of the US population. It still doesn't make it any less deadly to the people that get very sick. The entire world is affected and the entire world will recover in time. It may be quicker than most think, it may not. With the way the government and businesses have approached this, I'm looking at sooner rather than later.

[GannonFan]

And your point? The unnecessary and totally fabricated fear porn destroyed the global economy.

Another attempt at fear mongering, global economy is destroyed. It's a setback and numbers are similar to the great depression. But it's a different circumstance. Many of the workers will be back to work within a year, many can collect unemployment which did not exist in 1929. Sure there will be some that have to make changes. Places are opening up again, we have been eating from the same restaurants, just eating at home. Getting the same groceries, only picking them up instead of going to the store. It's not the great depression as the fear mongers and media are projecting.

I think to date you are correct, to a point. We'll still be burdened by the debt of all of this for years to come, so there'll be a price to pay for that. That's a pretty big "setback". We'll still have to see how many of the 30M people in just the US are back in jobs within a year. Some places are definitely shut down for good now and aren't coming back. I'll argue that to some extent, it's not a terrible thing that businesses that were barely hanging on are gone, but it still creates a tough road to hoe for those impacted. I think, though, it all depends on the next few months. That $600 a week unemployment bounce only runs through the end of July and I don't think most places could wait that long to get started - if we keep opening up things as we're starting to see then I think we'll generally be okay, but if we don't open things up in the next few weeks and this lingers on through the summer in lockdown then all bets are off.

On a bright side, and I missed this earlier, the provost for Harvard said on Monday that they are planning as if students will be on campus come the fall. Since as Harvard goes so goes most of the rest of academia, I think that's a huge thing. Colleges were staring at disaster if they didn't have kids on campus in the fall - you heard tons of talk of kids taking a gap year if that was the case (you can stomach paying for online college to end a semester like they did in the spring, but you'd see a huge exodus, or a huge cut in tuition, if it went to online learning for the entirety of the fall semester). Not that I'm adverse to the crappier of the colleges going the way of the dodo, but there'd be a lot of economic impact if colleges stay shut into the fall semester. And if colleges go back then they provide a model for high schools and lower schools to go back as well.

[GannonFan]

So you're undercounting on purpose then, no?

Actual count, yes.

Even though you said in your post several pages ago that doctors don't even test for the flu in many cases where it's suspected? So you know it's an undercount that you're posting?

[Gil Dobie]

Actual count, yes.

Even though you said in your post several pages ago that doctors don't even test for the flu in many cases where it's suspected? So you know it's an undercount that you're posting?

I'm not looking at total cases, looking at reported deaths. Been reading so much about people saying the COVID-19 death are exaggerated, but when some one mentions the flu deaths are exaggerated, why can't that be true. Prior to COVID, pneumonia deaths were included in flu deaths.

[AZGrizFan]

And your point? The unnecessary and totally fabricated fear porn destroyed the global economy.

Another attempt at fear mongering, global economy is destroyed. It's a setback and numbers are similar to the great depression. But it's a different circumstance. Many of the workers will be back to work within a year, many can collect unemployment which did not exist in 1929. Sure there will be some that have to make changes. Places are opening up again, we have been eating from the same restaurants, just eating at home. Getting the same groceries, only picking them up instead of going to the store. It's not the great depression as the fear mongers and media are projecting.

I’m sure those are comforting words to the tens of thousands of people who lost their businesses. Very comforting indeed. Sure, you’re 55, 60 years old. Just start over, you big pussy. Right?

[BDKJMU]

Well it would seem the majority of vets who voted for Trump didn't agree with your assessment.

They couldn't have voted for him despite agreeing with my assessment? What part of "held their nose" do you not understand? There were a myriad of other reasons for veterans to support Trump despite what he said about McCain and POWs. The fact that they voted for him in no way shows they didn't agree with my assessment.

Next contortion please ...

The fact that they voted for him in no way shows they did agree with your assessment. I believe the majority thought he was referring to McCain only, but I have no way to prove that. And you have no way to prove the opposite. So we'll have to agree to disagree.

[89Hen]

Another attempt at fear mongering, global economy is destroyed. It's a setback and numbers are similar to the great depression. But it's a different circumstance. Many of the workers will be back to work within a year, many can collect unemployment which did not exist in 1929. Sure there will be some that have to make changes. Places are opening up again, we have been eating from the same restaurants, just eating at home. Getting the same groceries, only picking them up instead of going to the store. It's not the great depression as the fear mongers and media are projecting.

Just some food for thought (ha)...

Folks who live paycheck to paycheck will miss payments. That can be devastating to credit reports for MANY years. That will drive up their revolving costs, future car loans, could block them from getting a mortgage, etc...

As for restaurants, it recently hit me that although some are doing good carry out business, most of them are missing out on their #1 revenue... beverages. I think it's common knowledge that beverages, especially alcohol are the biggest profit margin for restaurants. My guess is we will see far more restaurants out of business.

This could be anecdotal, but my last two months credit card bills have been less than 50% of my norm (not exaggerating). Keep in mind that I charge everything I can on the card for miles and pay each month. Gas certainly has something to do with it since I have four drivers who charge their gas to me. But the large bulk of it is restaurants. I'd say we used to eat out at least 2 times a week and as many as 4. Now... we've done pizza twice and that's about it.

This WILL be the great depression for many folks IMO.

[UNI88]

They couldn't have voted for him despite agreeing with my assessment? What part of "held their nose" do you not understand? There were a myriad of other reasons for veterans to support Trump despite what he said about McCain and POWs. The fact that they voted for him in no way shows they didn't agree with my assessment.

Next contortion please ...

The fact that they voted for him in no way shows they did agree with your assessment. I believe the majority thought he was referring to McCain only, but I have no way to prove that. And you have no way to prove the opposite. So we'll have to agree to disagree.

I think we do agree ... that we have no way to prove that the majority of vets who voted for Trump agreed or disagreed with my assessment.

You went from stating that "it would seem the majority of vets who voted for Trump didn't agree with your assessment" to "I have no way to prove that. And you have no way to prove the opposite." Not really a contortion but a nice backflip.

You sir, are a message board gymnast.

[Gil Dobie]

Another attempt at fear mongering, global economy is destroyed. It's a setback and numbers are similar to the great depression. But it's a different circumstance. Many of the workers will be back to work within a year, many can collect unemployment which did not exist in 1929. Sure there will be some that have to make changes. Places are opening up again, we have been eating from the same restaurants, just eating at home. Getting the same groceries, only picking them up instead of going to the store. It's not the great depression as the fear mongers and media are projecting.

I’m sure those are comforting words to the tens of thousands of people who lost their businesses. Very comforting indeed. Sure, you’re 55, 60 years old. Just start over, you big pussy. Right?

I've started over more than once and I can start over again. Can't start a new life from the grave.

I'm not in denial about people going out of business. It's tough, but it's possible that had we not had mitigation, there would have been a lot more going out of business. Businesses are opening up again and new ones will appear, hopefully the ones that went under will have former owners that make it thru this and can start anew.

[Ibanez]

They couldn't have voted for him despite agreeing with my assessment? What part of "held their nose" do you not understand? There were a myriad of other reasons for veterans to support Trump despite what he said about McCain and POWs. The fact that they voted for him in no way shows they didn't agree with my assessment.

Next contortion please ...

The fact that they voted for him in no way shows they did agree with your assessment. I believe the majority thought he was referring to McCain only, but I have no way to prove that. And you have no way to prove the opposite. So we'll have to agree to disagree.

He also boasts about being able to sexually assault women with impunity yet women voted for him. I think groups can be insulted and still have members of that group take no offense. It doesn't disprove the fact that he was insulting.

[Gil Dobie]

Another attempt at fear mongering, global economy is destroyed. It's a setback and numbers are similar to the great depression. But it's a different circumstance. Many of the workers will be back to work within a year, many can collect unemployment which did not exist in 1929. Sure there will be some that have to make changes. Places are opening up again, we have been eating from the same restaurants, just eating at home. Getting the same groceries, only picking them up instead of going to the store. It's not the great depression as the fear mongers and media are projecting.

Just some food for thought (ha)...

Folks who live paycheck to paycheck will miss payments. That can be devastating to credit reports for MANY years. That will drive up their revolving costs, future car loans, could block them from getting a mortgage, etc...

As for restaurants, it recently hit me that although some are doing good carry out business, most of them are missing out on their #1 revenue... beverages. I think it's common knowledge that beverages, especially alcohol are the biggest profit margin for restaurants. My guess is we will see far more restaurants out of business.

This could be anecdotal, but my last two months credit card bills have been less than 50% of my norm (not exaggerating). Keep in mind that I charge everything I can on the card for miles and pay each month. Gas certainly has something to do with it since I have four drivers who charge their gas to me. But the large bulk of it is restaurants. I'd say we used to eat out at least 2 times a week and as many as 4. Now... we've done pizza twice and that's about it.

This WILL be the great depression for many folks IMO.

I just got a spam call about my power bill. The person said I had 45 minutes before they were going to shut-off my power if I didn't pay them. We don't owe anything, so I told them I was going to call the power company. They gave me another fake number. called the power company, and gave them the fake numbers and verified we didn't owe anything and the power was not going to get shut-off. The guy at the power company also mentioned that during the pandemic they are not shutting off anyone's power. There are a lot of companies and people working to help people get thru this, unlike the great depression. Won't be able to help everyone, but we can try.

[BDKJMU]

The fact that they voted for him in no way shows they did agree with your assessment. I believe the majority thought he was referring to McCain only, but I have no way to prove that. And you have no way to prove the opposite. So we'll have to agree to disagree.

I think we do agree ... that we have no way to prove that the majority of vets who voted for Trump agreed or disagreed with my assessment.

You went from stating that "it would seem the majority of vets who voted for Trump didn't agree with your assessment" to "I have no way to prove that. And you have no way to prove the opposite." Not really a contortion but a nice backflip.

You sir, are a message board gymnast.

It seems to me, or I believe that _X___
It seems to me, or I believe that _X___, but I have no way to prove that.
That's not a back flip.

[UNI88]

I think we do agree ... that we have no way to prove that the majority of vets who voted for Trump agreed or disagreed with my assessment.

You went from stating that "it would seem the majority of vets who voted for Trump didn't agree with your assessment" to "I have no way to prove that. And you have no way to prove the opposite." Not really a contortion but a nice backflip.

You sir, are a message board gymnast.

It seems to me, or I believe that _X___
It seems to me, or I believe that _X___, but I have no way to prove that.
That is not a back flip.

[89Hen]

Just some food for thought (ha)...

Folks who live paycheck to paycheck will miss payments. That can be devastating to credit reports for MANY years. That will drive up their revolving costs, future car loans, could block them from getting a mortgage, etc...

As for restaurants, it recently hit me that although some are doing good carry out business, most of them are missing out on their #1 revenue... beverages. I think it's common knowledge that beverages, especially alcohol are the biggest profit margin for restaurants. My guess is we will see far more restaurants out of business.

This could be anecdotal, but my last two months credit card bills have been less than 50% of my norm (not exaggerating). Keep in mind that I charge everything I can on the card for miles and pay each month. Gas certainly has something to do with it since I have four drivers who charge their gas to me. But the large bulk of it is restaurants. I'd say we used to eat out at least 2 times a week and as many as 4. Now... we've done pizza twice and that's about it.

This WILL be the great depression for many folks IMO.

I just got a spam call about my power bill. The person said I had 45 minutes before they were going to shut-off my power if I didn't pay them. We don't owe anything, so I told them I was going to call the power company. They gave me another fake number. called the power company, and gave them the fake numbers and verified we didn't owe anything and the power was not going to get shut-off. The guy at the power company also mentioned that during the pandemic they are not shutting off anyone's power. There are a lot of companies and people working to help people get thru this, unlike the great depression. Won't be able to help everyone, but we can try.

Odd story as I'm not sure how that is a response to my post. The power company not shutting anyone off is great, but that doesn't mean they're going to forgive debts.

[Gil Dobie]

I just got a spam call about my power bill. The person said I had 45 minutes before they were going to shut-off my power if I didn't pay them. We don't owe anything, so I told them I was going to call the power company. They gave me another fake number. called the power company, and gave them the fake numbers and verified we didn't owe anything and the power was not going to get shut-off. The guy at the power company also mentioned that during the pandemic they are not shutting off anyone's power. There are a lot of companies and people working to help people get thru this, unlike the great depression. Won't be able to help everyone, but we can try.

Odd story as I'm not sure how that is a response to my post. The power company not shutting anyone off is great, but that doesn't mean they're going to forgive debts.

They aren't turning off their power at this point, and I'm sure they are arranging payments. To relate to your post, there are more outlets for assistance than there were in the 1930's. It's good thing this didn't happen in the middle of winter when the heat bills are higher.

[89Hen]

Odd story as I'm not sure how that is a response to my post. The power company not shutting anyone off is great, but that doesn't mean they're going to forgive debts.

They aren't turning off their power at this point, and I'm sure they are arranging payments. To relate to your post, there are more outlets for assistance than there were in the 1930's. It's good thing this didn't happen in the middle of winter when the heat bills are higher.

There are more outlets. There are also nearly 3x as many folks in the US. Boiling this down to one utility bill is folly. I view credit reports all day. One $30 collection from a cable or phone company can tank your score.

[Gil Dobie]

They aren't turning off their power at this point, and I'm sure they are arranging payments. To relate to your post, there are more outlets for assistance than there were in the 1930's. It's good thing this didn't happen in the middle of winter when the heat bills are higher.

There are more outlets. There are also nearly 3x as many folks in the US. Boiling this down to one utility bill is folly. I view credit reports all day. One $30 collection from a cable or phone company can tank your score.

I'm sure that's going to happen during this.

[Gil Dobie]

From the Minnesota DFL Governors Office

[89Hen]

It is funny how much folks depend on and/or love infographics. USA Today had it right 30+ years ago.

[JohnStOnge]

Here is a good discussion of the problem with comparing estimates of flu deaths to counts of COVID-19 deaths that my daughter called my attention to:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... _IPObORbQc

A key quote:

In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

So if we want to compare apples to apples, we would need to compare the somewhere around 60,000 counted COVID-19 deaths to this point to the 15,620 counted flu deaths actually counted during the past six flu seasons.

I would qualify that some by saying I think COVID-19 deaths are more likely to be recognized because of the nature of the situation. But, still, when people compare number of flu deaths to number of COVID-19 deaths they are normally comparing an estimate that accounts for under-reporting to a hard count.

[JohnStOnge]

On another issue involving deaths ascribed to the flu. Here is a statement from the CDC page at https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm:

Seasonal influenza-related deaths are deaths that occur in people for whom influenza infection was likely a contributor to the cause of death, but not necessarily the primary cause of death.