Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Winterborn »

kalm wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:31 pm
Winterborn wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:58 pm


What point is that?
We still don’t know much about and it’s short term and long effects.
I can see those points and figured that is what you meant but wanted to make sure. :thumb:

Short term I would argue that we know enough to make a good decision for the overall general wellbeing of society. Long term based on what some indications from the general population cases is that some people will have long term side effects but over all it will be within a percentage point or two of other similar viruses.

From my perspective there are two overall viewpoints/camps: Academic vs. Practical/Business.

You have the academic side in which they are used to having all the data and then making a decisions (much like the simulations I ran in college for my engineering and business classes) and where there was a certain threshold of data needed to make it comfortable to make a decision. One can never have too much data before making a decision.

On the other side is the practical/business side in which one is weighing other factors (economic, etc.) in the decision making and realizing that you cannot wait for all the data but need to make a decision based on what is known now and adjust later.

I see this quite often in professors that try to move over to the corporate side and get frustrated when they are not allowed all the time/money to gather the data they feel is necessary to make a decision. Or when they do have enough time they wait too long and wind up missing the market. There is also the fact of moving too quickly as some business leaders are apt to do and wind up with similar results. It boils down to a balance call between the two (Flaggy has said this on numerous occasions) and much of it comes down to leadership (to your point from a few days/weeks ago).

Earlier this year I definitely think we needed to know more about COVID before making a decision and that a shutdown was warranted till more information was known. Now the length of that shutdown can be argued either way but that is the befit of hind site. What we do know is that it is no where near as lethal and that for the vast majority of the population it isn't going to interfere with life and their activities. The media likes to hype the outliers or the uncertainty as that is what makes people tune in and in many cases have gone too far down that path, IMHO. For a situation such as this one must not look at the outliers but the overall effect on the general population as they are the ones you have to be concerned with. The 95 percentile of the population is where you concentrate at. Not saying you ignore the other 5% but over all you put the resources where it will do the most good and that is where your decision making process should end and start.

People (and their followers) for the most part fall into those two camps. And you don't have to look much further than this very board.

I completely ignored the whole emotional response (or lack thereof) in this whole matter, as while it does play into peoples thought/decision process, the breakdown is widely the same as the two camps I mentioned above. This whole subject would make a fascinating psychology PhD research paper and maybe if I go back to school I will get around to it. :)
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

Winterborn wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:35 pm
kalm wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:31 pm


We still don’t know much about and it’s short term and long effects.
I can see those points and figured that is what you meant but wanted to make sure. :thumb:

Short term I would argue that we know enough to make a good decision for the overall general wellbeing of society. Long term based on what some indications from the general population cases is that some people will have long term side effects but over all it will be within a percentage point or two of other similar viruses.

From my perspective there are two overall viewpoints/camps: Academic vs. Practical/Business.

You have the academic side in which they are used to having all the data and then making a decisions (much like the simulations I ran in college for my engineering and business classes) and where there was a certain threshold of data needed to make it comfortable to make a decision. One can never have too much data before making a decision.

On the other side is the practical/business side in which one is weighing other factors (economic, etc.) in the decision making and realizing that you cannot wait for all the data but need to make a decision based on what is known now and adjust later.

I see this quite often in professors that try to move over to the corporate side and get frustrated when they are not allowed all the time/money to gather the data they feel is necessary to make a decision. Or when they do have enough time they wait too long and wind up missing the market. There is also the fact of moving too quickly as some business leaders are apt to do and wind up with similar results. It boils down to a balance call between the two (Flaggy has said this on numerous occasions) and much of it comes down to leadership (to your point from a few days/weeks ago).

Earlier this year I definitely think we needed to know more about COVID before making a decision and that a shutdown was warranted till more information was known. Now the length of that shutdown can be argued either way but that is the befit of hind site. What we do know is that it is no where near as lethal and that for the vast majority of the population it isn't going to interfere with life and their activities. The media likes to hype the outliers or the uncertainty as that is what makes people tune in and in many cases have gone too far down that path, IMHO. For a situation such as this one must not look at the outliers but the overall effect on the general population as they are the ones you have to be concerned with. The 95 percentile of the population is where you concentrate at. Not saying you ignore the other 5% but over all you put the resources where it will do the most good and that is where your decision making process should end and start.

People (and their followers) for the most part fall into those two camps. And you don't have to look much further than this very board.

I completely ignored the whole emotional response (or lack thereof) in this whole matter, as while it does play into peoples thought/decision process, the breakdown is widely the same as the two camps I mentioned above. This whole subject would make a fascinating psychology PhD research paper and maybe if I go back to school I will get around to it. :)
Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.

Here’s another interesting read on infections, long term effects and deaths in young adults. Forget about “tough luck, grandma”, 1/3 are obese, 1/4 are morbidly obese, and many of them work for small businesses which represent 80% of US companies and can’t easily absorb months of sick leave. It’s becoming apparent that it isn’t as simple as being down for a few days like the flu.
New findings published this month further reveal how severely Covid-19 can affect young adults. A research paper published in JAMA Internal Medicine found that among more than 3,200 adults ages 18 to 34 who were hospitalized with the disease, 21 percent required intensive care, 10 percent required mechanical ventilation and nearly 3 percent — 88 patients — died. Of those who survived, 3 percent — 99 patients — had to be discharged to another health care facility to continue their recoveries.....

Solomon and colleagues used a large health care database to look at serious Covid-19 illnesses in young adults hospitalized in April, May or June. Of the more than 1,000 U.S. hospitals in the database, which treated a total of 63,103 Covid-19 patients during the study period, 3,222 patients, or 5 percent, were young adults admitted to 419 hospitals.

Overall, 58 percent of the young adult patients were men, and 57 percent were Black or Hispanic. More than a third were obese, including 25 percent who were morbidly obese (with body mass indexes of 40 or higher), 18 percent had diabetes, and 16 percent had hypertension. The young adult patients who had more than one of those underlying health conditions had the same risks from Covid-19 as middle-age adults without those conditions, the study found
.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... bCQe4HzyTI
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by CAA Flagship »

kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:20 am
More than a third were obese, including 25 percent who were morbidly obese (with body mass indexes of 40 or higher)
#FatLivesMatter

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by 89Hen »

kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:20 am
Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.

Here’s another interesting read on infections, long term effects and deaths in young adults. Forget about “tough luck, grandma”, 1/3 are obese, 1/4 are morbidly obese, and many of them work for small businesses which represent 80% of US companies and can’t easily absorb months of sick leave. It’s becoming apparent that it isn’t as simple as being down for a few days like the flu.
All the media tries to manipulate the data to pull on heartstrings.

Last week on ABC national news, they did a segment on people who died from Covid. The big graphic behind David Muir was a collage of photos, probably 100ish. I froze the picture and quickly started counting how many of the photos were of folks under 60 in my quick estimation... 70% of them. Sure enough, they start profiling people who have died... a 9 year old, a 29 year old, a 35 year old.... Now, had they said this virus doesn't only impact the elderly that might be one thing. But it was clear their intent was to try to spin this. 92% of deaths are > 55. 1% are < 35.

The next night they did the segment again, and quickly mentioned the same 9 yo, 29 yo, and 35 yo.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by CAA Flagship »

89Hen wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:44 am
kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:20 am
Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.

Here’s another interesting read on infections, long term effects and deaths in young adults. Forget about “tough luck, grandma”, 1/3 are obese, 1/4 are morbidly obese, and many of them work for small businesses which represent 80% of US companies and can’t easily absorb months of sick leave. It’s becoming apparent that it isn’t as simple as being down for a few days like the flu.
All the media tries to manipulate the data to pull on heartstrings.

Last week on ABC national news, they did a segment on people who died from Covid. The big graphic behind David Muir was a collage of photos, probably 100ish. I froze the picture and quickly started counting how many of the photos were of folks under 60 in my quick estimation... 70% of them. Sure enough, they start profiling people who have died... a 9 year old, a 29 year old, a 35 year old.... Now, had they said this virus doesn't only impact the elderly that might be one thing. But it was clear their intent was to try to spin this. 92% of deaths are > 55. 1% are < 35.

The next night they did the segment again, and quickly mentioned the same 9 yo, 29 yo, and 35 yo.
When Biden wins, it will be interesting to see how the narrative changes.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

89Hen wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:44 am
kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:20 am
Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.

Here’s another interesting read on infections, long term effects and deaths in young adults. Forget about “tough luck, grandma”, 1/3 are obese, 1/4 are morbidly obese, and many of them work for small businesses which represent 80% of US companies and can’t easily absorb months of sick leave. It’s becoming apparent that it isn’t as simple as being down for a few days like the flu.
All the media tries to manipulate the data to pull on heartstrings.

Last week on ABC national news, they did a segment on people who died from Covid. The big graphic behind David Muir was a collage of photos, probably 100ish. I froze the picture and quickly started counting how many of the photos were of folks under 60 in my quick estimation... 70% of them. Sure enough, they start profiling people who have died... a 9 year old, a 29 year old, a 35 year old.... Now, had they said this virus doesn't only impact the elderly that might be one thing. But it was clear their intent was to try to spin this. 92% of deaths are > 55. 1% are < 35.

The next night they did the segment again, and quickly mentioned the same 9 yo, 29 yo, and 35 yo.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by CAA Flagship »

There has been a lot of talk about the Flu season being layered on top of the pandemic.
I'm guessing it won't be a big factor. I think the practices that many people are doing (masks, physical distancing, etc.) will keep the flu from being what it normally would be. It will be interesting to see if more flu shots are administered this year.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:20 am
Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.
And cancer cause 200-250 9/11s every year
And heart disease causes 200-250 9/11s every year.

Have a population of over 330 million where several million people die every year. If the China Virus death count isn't inflated, it has killed about 6 one hundreths of 1 percent of the population..
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Skjellyfetti »

What percentage of the US population did Ebola kill?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:38 am
kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:20 am
Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.
And cancer cause 200-250 9/11s every year
And heart disease causes 200-250 9/11s every year.

Have a population of over 330 million where several million people die every year. If the China Virus death count isn't inflated, it has killed about 6 one hundreths of 1 percent of the population..
It interrupted the economy of the USA, most entertainment and sports industries. JMU isn't playing football this fall because of it. All we had to do is wear mask, social distance and wash hands, and we could have had a fall football season. People like you didn't care enough.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by GannonFan »

Gil Dobie wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:54 am
BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:38 am

And cancer cause 200-250 9/11s every year
And heart disease causes 200-250 9/11s every year.

Have a population of over 330 million where several million people die every year. If the China Virus death count isn't inflated, it has killed about 6 one hundreths of 1 percent of the population..
It interrupted the economy of the USA, most entertainment and sports industries. JMU isn't playing football this fall because of it. All we had to do is wear mask, social distance and wash hands, and we could have had a fall football season. People like you didn't care enough.
A good chunk of the country - namely the Northeast, has been wearing masks, socially distancing, and washing hands, and the case counts are down as a result, and those areas of the country aren't any closer to having a fall football season than the areas you are complaining about that actually are having a fall football season. Once this thing got out there (and we're talking late March, early April timeframe) it was always going to be all bets off until we get a vaccine. Just too contagious and too widespread by that point. There's enough fear out there now that there can't be anything remotely close to normal without a vaccine.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:20 am
Winterborn wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:35 pm


I can see those points and figured that is what you meant but wanted to make sure. :thumb:

Short term I would argue that we know enough to make a good decision for the overall general wellbeing of society. Long term based on what some indications from the general population cases is that some people will have long term side effects but over all it will be within a percentage point or two of other similar viruses.

From my perspective there are two overall viewpoints/camps: Academic vs. Practical/Business.

You have the academic side in which they are used to having all the data and then making a decisions (much like the simulations I ran in college for my engineering and business classes) and where there was a certain threshold of data needed to make it comfortable to make a decision. One can never have too much data before making a decision.

On the other side is the practical/business side in which one is weighing other factors (economic, etc.) in the decision making and realizing that you cannot wait for all the data but need to make a decision based on what is known now and adjust later.

I see this quite often in professors that try to move over to the corporate side and get frustrated when they are not allowed all the time/money to gather the data they feel is necessary to make a decision. Or when they do have enough time they wait too long and wind up missing the market. There is also the fact of moving too quickly as some business leaders are apt to do and wind up with similar results. It boils down to a balance call between the two (Flaggy has said this on numerous occasions) and much of it comes down to leadership (to your point from a few days/weeks ago).

Earlier this year I definitely think we needed to know more about COVID before making a decision and that a shutdown was warranted till more information was known. Now the length of that shutdown can be argued either way but that is the befit of hind site. What we do know is that it is no where near as lethal and that for the vast majority of the population it isn't going to interfere with life and their activities. The media likes to hype the outliers or the uncertainty as that is what makes people tune in and in many cases have gone too far down that path, IMHO. For a situation such as this one must not look at the outliers but the overall effect on the general population as they are the ones you have to be concerned with. The 95 percentile of the population is where you concentrate at. Not saying you ignore the other 5% but over all you put the resources where it will do the most good and that is where your decision making process should end and start.

People (and their followers) for the most part fall into those two camps. And you don't have to look much further than this very board.

I completely ignored the whole emotional response (or lack thereof) in this whole matter, as while it does play into peoples thought/decision process, the breakdown is widely the same as the two camps I mentioned above. This whole subject would make a fascinating psychology PhD research paper and maybe if I go back to school I will get around to it. :)
Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.

Here’s another interesting read on infections, long term effects and deaths in young adults. Forget about “tough luck, grandma”, 1/3 are obese, 1/4 are morbidly obese, and many of them work for small businesses which represent 80% of US companies and can’t easily absorb months of sick leave. It’s becoming apparent that it isn’t as simple as being down for a few days like the flu.
New findings published this month further reveal how severely Covid-19 can affect young adults. A research paper published in JAMA Internal Medicine found that among more than 3,200 adults ages 18 to 34 who were hospitalized with the disease, 21 percent required intensive care, 10 percent required mechanical ventilation and nearly 3 percent — 88 patients — died. Of those who survived, 3 percent — 99 patients — had to be discharged to another health care facility to continue their recoveries.....

Solomon and colleagues used a large health care database to look at serious Covid-19 illnesses in young adults hospitalized in April, May or June. Of the more than 1,000 U.S. hospitals in the database, which treated a total of 63,103 Covid-19 patients during the study period, 3,222 patients, or 5 percent, were young adults admitted to 419 hospitals.

Overall, 58 percent of the young adult patients were men, and 57 percent were Black or Hispanic. More than a third were obese, including 25 percent who were morbidly obese (with body mass indexes of 40 or higher), 18 percent had diabetes, and 16 percent had hypertension. The young adult patients who had more than one of those underlying health conditions had the same risks from Covid-19 as middle-age adults without those conditions, the study found
.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... bCQe4HzyTI
That's a weird article as it talks mainly about the adults, ages 18 to 34, who were hospitalized. Isn't it true that the vast majority of those folks in that age group who have or may have had COVID are either asymptomatic or had such mild symptoms that they didn't require hospitalization?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by UNI88 »

Winterborn wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:35 pm
kalm wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:31 pm

We still don’t know much about and it’s short term and long effects.
I can see those points and figured that is what you meant but wanted to make sure. :thumb:

Short term I would argue that we know enough to make a good decision for the overall general wellbeing of society. Long term based on what some indications from the general population cases is that some people will have long term side effects but over all it will be within a percentage point or two of other similar viruses.

From my perspective there are two overall viewpoints/camps: Academic vs. Practical/Business.

You have the academic side in which they are used to having all the data and then making a decisions (much like the simulations I ran in college for my engineering and business classes) and where there was a certain threshold of data needed to make it comfortable to make a decision. One can never have too much data before making a decision.

On the other side is the practical/business side in which one is weighing other factors (economic, etc.) in the decision making and realizing that you cannot wait for all the data but need to make a decision based on what is known now and adjust later.

I see this quite often in professors that try to move over to the corporate side and get frustrated when they are not allowed all the time/money to gather the data they feel is necessary to make a decision. Or when they do have enough time they wait too long and wind up missing the market. There is also the fact of moving too quickly as some business leaders are apt to do and wind up with similar results. It boils down to a balance call between the two (Flaggy has said this on numerous occasions) and much of it comes down to leadership (to your point from a few days/weeks ago).

Earlier this year I definitely think we needed to know more about COVID before making a decision and that a shutdown was warranted till more information was known. Now the length of that shutdown can be argued either way but that is the befit of hind site. What we do know is that it is no where near as lethal and that for the vast majority of the population it isn't going to interfere with life and their activities. The media likes to hype the outliers or the uncertainty as that is what makes people tune in and in many cases have gone too far down that path, IMHO. For a situation such as this one must not look at the outliers but the overall effect on the general population as they are the ones you have to be concerned with. The 95 percentile of the population is where you concentrate at. Not saying you ignore the other 5% but over all you put the resources where it will do the most good and that is where your decision making process should end and start.

People (and their followers) for the most part fall into those two camps. And you don't have to look much further than this very board.

I completely ignored the whole emotional response (or lack thereof) in this whole matter, as while it does play into peoples thought/decision process, the breakdown is widely the same as the two camps I mentioned above. This whole subject would make a fascinating psychology PhD research paper and maybe if I go back to school I will get around to it. :)
I'm assuming that the Practical/Business camp includes some people who feel that this isn't the flu and that reasonable precautions should be taken as well as the this is a hoax/the flu/no big deal people. That's a pretty big tent or do the hoaxers/flu/no big deal people have their own camp on the edge of civilization or are they so far out in Spandos territory that we're not even counting them?

Curious what your opinion is on what we should be doing at this point in time?

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:38 am
kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:20 am
Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.
And cancer cause 200-250 9/11s every year
And heart disease causes 200-250 9/11s every year.

Have a population of over 330 million where several million people die every year. If the China Virus death count isn't inflated, it has killed about 6 one hundreths of 1 percent of the population..
Cancer and heart disease aren’t contagious and we have decades of modern medical knowledge to understand them.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:05 am
Gil Dobie wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:54 am


It interrupted the economy of the USA, most entertainment and sports industries. JMU isn't playing football this fall because of it. All we had to do is wear mask, social distance and wash hands, and we could have had a fall football season. People like you didn't care enough.
A good chunk of the country - namely the Northeast, has been wearing masks, socially distancing, and washing hands, and the case counts are down as a result, and those areas of the country aren't any closer to having a fall football season than the areas you are complaining about that actually are having a fall football season. Once this thing got out there (and we're talking late March, early April timeframe) it was always going to be all bets off until we get a vaccine. Just too contagious and too widespread by that point. There's enough fear out there now that there can't be anything remotely close to normal without a vaccine.
Because we’re not German?
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Gil Dobie
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

GannonFan wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:05 am
Gil Dobie wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:54 am


It interrupted the economy of the USA, most entertainment and sports industries. JMU isn't playing football this fall because of it. All we had to do is wear mask, social distance and wash hands, and we could have had a fall football season. People like you didn't care enough.
A good chunk of the country - namely the Northeast, has been wearing masks, socially distancing, and washing hands, and the case counts are down as a result, and those areas of the country aren't any closer to having a fall football season than the areas you are complaining about that actually are having a fall football season. Once this thing got out there (and we're talking late March, early April timeframe) it was always going to be all bets off until we get a vaccine. Just too contagious and too widespread by that point. There's enough fear out there now that there can't be anything remotely close to normal without a vaccine.
Everyone wasn't and isn't wearing mask and following suggested protocol out east. If everyone followed it, the government would not have to get involved.

I asked a woman at the post office to pull her mask up today. She was standing in front of the drop-off window with here mask down. She told me I had mine on, and I said, it doesn't protect me, it prevents people from spreading. She put it up and and I thanked her and dropped off my packages.

We have a casino here that has mask and temps required to enter, and they have setup social distancing inside. No known cases have walked out the door since the June opening. A few employees have shown up to work with covid symptoms, and been sent home and tested positive. This weekend, see if the Bison fans can keep their mask on and social distance at the game. Temp checks and masks required, 8000 fans can spread out if they want, in a 18,000 seat stadium.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:09 am
kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:20 am


Risk aversion definitely influences emotions on the matter. Covid has caused seventy 9/11’s. For some (often the same people who were saying we shouldn’t close down back in the Spring) that still means it’s just the flu , we have enough information, let’s find normal again. Chasing normal either from a public health perspective or an economic one is irrational at this point. Simply opening back up is not a guarantee of economic revival either...for numerous reasons.

Here’s another interesting read on infections, long term effects and deaths in young adults. Forget about “tough luck, grandma”, 1/3 are obese, 1/4 are morbidly obese, and many of them work for small businesses which represent 80% of US companies and can’t easily absorb months of sick leave. It’s becoming apparent that it isn’t as simple as being down for a few days like the flu.

.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... bCQe4HzyTI
That's a weird article as it talks mainly about the adults, ages 18 to 34, who were hospitalized. Isn't it true that the vast majority of those folks in that age group who have or may have had COVID are either asymptomatic or had such mild symptoms that they didn't require hospitalization?
That’s kind of the point of the article. We might need to remain vigilant in the face of “it’s the flu”, “it’s an old person’s disease”.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:40 am
BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:38 am

And cancer cause 200-250 9/11s every year
And heart disease causes 200-250 9/11s every year.

Have a population of over 330 million where several million people die every year. If the China Virus death count isn't inflated, it has killed about 6 one hundreths of 1 percent of the population..
Cancer and heart disease aren’t contagious and we have decades of modern medical knowledge to understand them.
They're not contagious, no. But there are certainly steps that could be taken to reduce the # of deaths per year. Just like driving. We could reduce the # of driving deaths to near zero if we wanted to be draconian enough in our laws...you know, just to make sure everyone was "safe". But we don't. We accept the risk and move on, without destroying the economy to "save lives".
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

UNI88 wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:17 am
Winterborn wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:35 pm


I can see those points and figured that is what you meant but wanted to make sure. :thumb:

Short term I would argue that we know enough to make a good decision for the overall general wellbeing of society. Long term based on what some indications from the general population cases is that some people will have long term side effects but over all it will be within a percentage point or two of other similar viruses.

From my perspective there are two overall viewpoints/camps: Academic vs. Practical/Business.

You have the academic side in which they are used to having all the data and then making a decisions (much like the simulations I ran in college for my engineering and business classes) and where there was a certain threshold of data needed to make it comfortable to make a decision. One can never have too much data before making a decision.

On the other side is the practical/business side in which one is weighing other factors (economic, etc.) in the decision making and realizing that you cannot wait for all the data but need to make a decision based on what is known now and adjust later.

I see this quite often in professors that try to move over to the corporate side and get frustrated when they are not allowed all the time/money to gather the data they feel is necessary to make a decision. Or when they do have enough time they wait too long and wind up missing the market. There is also the fact of moving too quickly as some business leaders are apt to do and wind up with similar results. It boils down to a balance call between the two (Flaggy has said this on numerous occasions) and much of it comes down to leadership (to your point from a few days/weeks ago).

Earlier this year I definitely think we needed to know more about COVID before making a decision and that a shutdown was warranted till more information was known. Now the length of that shutdown can be argued either way but that is the befit of hind site. What we do know is that it is no where near as lethal and that for the vast majority of the population it isn't going to interfere with life and their activities. The media likes to hype the outliers or the uncertainty as that is what makes people tune in and in many cases have gone too far down that path, IMHO. For a situation such as this one must not look at the outliers but the overall effect on the general population as they are the ones you have to be concerned with. The 95 percentile of the population is where you concentrate at. Not saying you ignore the other 5% but over all you put the resources where it will do the most good and that is where your decision making process should end and start.

People (and their followers) for the most part fall into those two camps. And you don't have to look much further than this very board.

I completely ignored the whole emotional response (or lack thereof) in this whole matter, as while it does play into peoples thought/decision process, the breakdown is widely the same as the two camps I mentioned above. This whole subject would make a fascinating psychology PhD research paper and maybe if I go back to school I will get around to it. :)
I'm assuming that the Practical/Business camp includes some people who feel that this isn't the flu and that reasonable precautions should be taken as well as the this is a hoax/the flu/no big deal people. That's a pretty big tent or do the hoaxers/flu/no big deal people have their own camp on the edge of civilization or are they so far out in Spandos territory that we're not even counting them?

Curious what your opinion is on what we should be doing at this point in time?
Keep on trucking. Some progress is being made. A new test is coming soon tgat takes minutes. Testing accuracy needs to be improved. See Gil’s post.

Economic bailouts would be good too. Continued mortgage and lease extensions (commercial and residential) backed by the Fed to also protect landlords.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Winterborn »

UNI88 wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:17 am

I'm assuming that the Practical/Business camp includes some people who feel that this isn't the flu and that reasonable precautions should be taken as well as the this is a hoax/the flu/no big deal people. That's a pretty big tent or do the hoaxers/flu/no big deal people have their own camp on the edge of civilization or are they so far out in Spandos territory that we're not even counting them?

Curious what your opinion is on what we should be doing at this point in time?
No, I left the hoax folks out along with the Oh No's we are all going to die in a zombie plague. Figured it was fitting to leave the two extremes to themselves. :thumb:

My opinion would be to isolate those with the highest risk and those that need to interact with them undergo more precautions. Keep a close eye on hospitalizations and capacity, encourage mask use (not mandatory, up to a business), and social distancing on a business type case where you would spend time in close contact with others (restaurants, sporting events, etc). About 3/4 of ones normal capacity. As for the rest of the economy, I would leave to open up with a recommendation of how to clean and staff ones business. Everybody would be on the same page business wise, from a Walmart to a mom/pop store.

For the most part everything would be open again, with some precautions. If one is younger or at low risk, life would be pretty normal right about now.

1) We know the hardest hit are the elderly and those with prior conditions that make them at risk
2) Young people have little to no risk due to a variety of reasons

COVID acts like the reverse of the flu in which the elderly are more effected than the younger portions of the population. The thing is people will die no matter what and with 330 million people in the United States one is always going to get outliers in the above just due to statistical variance. I feel for those people and their families but not to the point where I would shut everything down in the name of "one death is too many". The news likes to use them as examples of "common" occurrences, which is dishonest IMHO. In my job I deal with trends and data/risk analysis of people/machines (among other things) and the numbers are there to support the above, but emotion has entered the picture in a big way and too many people are making decisions based on emotion. Normally that is not a bad thing (and in some cases a very good thing), but in this cases that emotion is doing more harm than good.

I will admit I was nervous for about 2 weeks this spring but after that my understanding of how COVID acts and who is most at risk has increased and for me it is only something I am slightly more concerned with than the flu. I have 4 relatives that were all asymptomatic and tested positive. Two were in their late 20's and the other two were in early 60's. One of the late 20 year olds felt tired and sleepy (lost sense of smell as well) but that was it. The others had no symptoms.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:41 am
GannonFan wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:05 am


A good chunk of the country - namely the Northeast, has been wearing masks, socially distancing, and washing hands, and the case counts are down as a result, and those areas of the country aren't any closer to having a fall football season than the areas you are complaining about that actually are having a fall football season. Once this thing got out there (and we're talking late March, early April timeframe) it was always going to be all bets off until we get a vaccine. Just too contagious and too widespread by that point. There's enough fear out there now that there can't be anything remotely close to normal without a vaccine.
Because we’re not German?
I'm pretty sure we started letting people in the stands of football games before Germany started having fans in the stands for soccer games.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:07 am
kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:41 am


Because we’re not German?
I'm pretty sure we started letting people in the stands of football games before Germany started having fans in the stands for soccer games.
Nope.

But I was referring to restrictions.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

Gil Dobie wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:54 am
BDKJMU wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:38 am

And cancer cause 200-250 9/11s every year
And heart disease causes 200-250 9/11s every year.

Have a population of over 330 million where several million people die every year. If the China Virus death count isn't inflated, it has killed about 6 one hundreths of 1 percent of the population..
It interrupted the economy of the USA, most entertainment and sports industries. JMU isn't playing football this fall because of it. All we had to do is wear mask, social distance and wash hands, and we could have had a fall football season. People like you didn't care enough.
Wrong. All we had to do is do what IA conferences in the mostly red states did, and we could have had a football season. The 1st ones to cancel were in the most mask wearing, physically distancing states..
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

GannonFan wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:05 am
Gil Dobie wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:54 am


It interrupted the economy of the USA, most entertainment and sports industries. JMU isn't playing football this fall because of it. All we had to do is wear mask, social distance and wash hands, and we could have had a fall football season. People like you didn't care enough.
A good chunk of the country - namely the Northeast, has been wearing masks, socially distancing, and washing hands, and the case counts are down as a result, and those areas of the country aren't any closer to having a fall football season than the areas you are complaining about that actually are having a fall football season. Once this thing got out there (and we're talking late March, early April timeframe) it was always going to be all bets off until we get a vaccine. Just too contagious and too widespread by that point. There's enough fear out there now that there can't be anything remotely close to normal without a vaccine.
Yep.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:52 am
UNI88 wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:17 am


I'm assuming that the Practical/Business camp includes some people who feel that this isn't the flu and that reasonable precautions should be taken as well as the this is a hoax/the flu/no big deal people. That's a pretty big tent or do the hoaxers/flu/no big deal people have their own camp on the edge of civilization or are they so far out in Spandos territory that we're not even counting them?

Curious what your opinion is on what we should be doing at this point in time?
Keep on trucking. Some progress is being made. A new test is coming soon tgat takes minutes. Testing accuracy needs to be improved. See Gil’s post.

Economic bailouts would be good too. Continued mortgage and lease extensions (commercial and residential) backed by the Fed to also protect landlords.
Or, we could just reopen the fucking country. :coffee: :coffee:

But hey, what's 4-5 trillion more in bailouts/"stimulus" piled onto the national debt at this point, amirite?
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