Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:43 pm I hadn't looked at this sort of thing for a while. Just did and what's going on is pretty dramatic.

Check out the top 15 States in terms of cumulative COVID-19 cases per million population right now:

1. Tennessee
2. North Dakota
3. Florida
4. South Carolina
5. Arkansas
6. Mississippi
7. South Dakota
8. Rhode Island
9. Alabama
10. Louisiana
11. Utah
12. Oklahoma
13. Wyoming
14. Kentucky
15. Iowa

All but one of the top 15 are "red" states. Louisiana has an asterisk because it's got a Democrat governor. But the State went for Trump by 59% to 40%.

It's not quite as "red" when it comes to cumulative deaths per million population but still red. Here's how that ranking goes:

1. Mississippi
2. New Jersey
3. Louisiana
4. New York
5. Alabama
6. Arizona
7. Massachussetts
8. Rhode Island
9. Arkansas
10. Florida
11. Georgia
12. South Dakota
13. Connecticut
14. South Carolina
15. Indiana

9 of the 15 are "red" states. Another thing: New Jersey and New York are up there but they're up there because of what happened right at the start of the epidemic in the United States. The "blue" states improved in a relative sense over time. The "red" states did not. See graphs below for the top two death rate states:

Mississippi:
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New Jersey:
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The cliff notes version: NY and NJ killed off their vulnerable population early, so now they perform better. :coffee:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

Similar comparison involving New York and Florida. New York got hit early when nobody understood what was going on. So they went way up in the death rate. But New York has improved its situation. Florida has not.

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And then there is Texas:

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Fellas, its time to admit that the performance of Governors like DeSantis and Abbot has not been good.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:36 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:27 pm

By all the people who understand studies and statistics.
Oh! Those guys! :lol:
Rates right up there with mediabiasfactcheck!
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by UNI88 »

SeattleGriz wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:09 pm By who?
By all the people who understand studies and statistics.
Cyber Ninjas?

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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UNI88 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:17 pm
SeattleGriz wrote:
By all the people who understand studies and statistics.
Cyber Ninjas?

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It has many flaws, questions and key omissions:

1. It uses a “case-control” methodology that reverses the logic of more intuitive methods, by first identifying cohorts of re-infected individuals and their vaccination rate, and comparing it to a randomly selected, demographically similar control group. Using this method, they queried the Kentucky state’s database of COVID individuals, and found only 246 people who again tested positive for the virus in May/June of 2021. Of these people, they found 72.8% were unvaccinated, compared to 57.7% of the control group. This suggests reinfected individuals would have benefited from the vaccine. The problem? In the communication, they OMIT the denominator of total COVID recovered patients in KY in 2020, but this independently reported in public databases as ~275,000 cases. This means only 246/275,000 patients got reinfected in May/June, resulting in 0.05%/month re-infection rate. This is ridiculously small, given the breakthrough rate for vaccines is on the order of 5-10%!

2. While the reinfected patients necessarily had a positive test result, the control group did not have any testing requirements. This is problematic, because asymptomatic individuals will rarely get tested, and vaccinated individuals may still not get tested even if symptomatic. The end result is that the total number of re-infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic) in the vaccinated group are underestimated. To their credit, the authors acknowledge this, but do not qualify its potential impact.

3. The study curiously looked at reinfections that occurred specifically and only in May and June of 2021. Why not look at all reinfections after the vaccine was made available, in January 2021? The authors justify this decision by saying, “because of vaccine supply and eligibility requirement considerations; this period was more likely to reflect resident choice to be vaccinated, rather than eligibility.” But it is preposterous to believe that an individual’s choice of vaccination impact the efficacy of vaccination. More likely, perhaps cynically, these months were selected to give the authors a desired result that the full time period did not.

4. The authors write in their limitations, “these findings cannot be used to infer causation.” However, by its release and amplification in mainstream media, the causation is clearly being inferred by the public!
Not to mention the study was performed in all 50 states, but they only chose Kentucky data.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:27 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:09 pm

By who?
By all the people who understand studies and statistics.
I understand studies and statistics. Looks like a pretty standard case control study to me. Case control studies have issues by their nature but they are widely used and widely accepted in epidemiology. Give me somebody's specific critique.

My guess is that whoever you give me is not going to have the credibility (to any reasonably objective person at least) that the CDC does. I realize that we are in a time when people on the right are attacking the CDC. But the CDC is the best epidemiology entity in the world.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:21 pm
1. It uses a “case-control” methodology that reverses the logic of more intuitive methods, by first identifying cohorts of re-infected individuals and their vaccination rate, and comparing it to a randomly selected, demographically similar control group.
Underline added for emphasis. That right there pretty much nukes the credibility of the person who wrote it. The controls were not randomly selected. That's not what happens in a case control study. There may be "random matching" of some controls to cases. But the controls are not randomly selected. The controls are selected using judgment involving making them similar to the cases.

Case closed. The person who wrote the critique does not understand case control studies.

Again: Case control studies are widely accepted as valid in epidemiology. Valid in terms of showing an association, that is. If this person is saying using case control methodology is a problem, HE is a problem.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:21 pm

Not to mention the study was performed in all 50 states, but they only chose Kentucky data.
Can you document that?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:52 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:21 pm

Not to mention the study was performed in all 50 states, but they only chose Kentucky data.
Can you document that?
Yeah, sure. As soon as you provide a study showing the unvaccinated are driving the variants.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:54 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:52 pm

Can you document that?
Yeah, sure. As soon as you provide a study showing the unvaccinated are driving the variants.
They’re driving the hospitalizations and deaths.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:55 pm Similar comparison involving New York and Florida. New York got hit early when nobody understood what was going on. So they went way up in the death rate. But New York has improved its situation. Florida has not.

Image
Image

And then there is Texas:

Image

Fellas, its time to admit that the performance of Governors like DeSantis and Abbot has not been good.
Scoreboard: Deaths per million.
2. NJ
4. NY
10. FL
19. TX
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:25 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:27 pm

By all the people who understand studies and statistics.
I understand studies and statistics. Looks like a pretty standard case control study to me. Case control studies have issues by their nature but they are widely used and widely accepted in epidemiology. Give me somebody's specific critique.

My guess is that whoever you give me is not going to have the credibility (to any reasonably objective person at least) that the CDC does. I realize that we are in a time when people on the right are attacking the CDC. But the CDC is the best epidemiology entity in the world.
-You mean the agency that issued the unconstitutional eviction moratorium, which was nothing more than de facto govt seizure of private property without due process, and threatened property owners who violated their edict with mutiple yr prison terms and multiple 6 figure fines?
-The agency who pushes the use of the vaccine to stop the spread, but says nothing of hundreds of thousands of illegals pouring across our southern border and being released en masse into the interior of the US, untested and unvaccinated?
-The agency who’s head recently wemt against the recommendationns of her own panel in endorsing boosters?
-The agency who just had 2 top officials resign, warning against the use of boosters?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SDHornet »

Hey klammy...you factor nurse shortages due to terminations into your "but hospitalizations" narrative, or no? Weren't these same nurses who are getting fired heroes just a year go?

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:55 pm Similar comparison involving New York and Florida. New York got hit early when nobody understood what was going on. So they went way up in the death rate. But New York has improved its situation. Florida has not.

Image
Image

And then there is Texas:

Image

Fellas, its time to admit that the performance of Governors like DeSantis and Abbot has not been good.
Florida used to be 20th, now 10th, and they used to be around 100 deaths per million more than California, now around 800 more per million. They moved up a lot during their last surge.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

SDHornet wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:39 pm Hey klammy...you factor nurse shortages due to terminations into your "but hospitalizations" narrative, or no? Weren't these same nurses who are getting fired heroes just a year go?

Wouldn’t that make reducing hospitalizations and getting vaccinated even more important? :suspicious:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

Terrific and fairly optimistic read on the history of viruses, the latest studies, and where we’re likely headed…
Boghuma Kabisen Titanji was just 8 years old when the hyper-contagious virus swept through her classroom. Days later, she started to feel feverish, and developed a sparse, rosy rash. Three years after being fully dosed with the measles vaccine, one of the most durably effective immunizations in our roster, Titanji fell ill with the very pathogen her shots were designed to prevent.

Her parents rushed her to a pediatrician, worried that her first inoculations had failed to take. But the doctor allayed their fears: “It happens. She’ll be fine.” And she was. Her fever and rash cleared up in just a couple of days; she never sickened anyone else in her family. It was, says Titanji, now an infectious-disease physician and a researcher at Emory University, a textbook case of “modified” measles, a rare post-vaccination illness so mild and unthreatening that it doesn’t even deserve the full measles name.

The measles virus is ultra-infectious, much more so than SARS-CoV-2, and kills many of the uninoculated children it afflicts. But for those who have gotten all their shots, it’s a less formidable foe, which we’ve learned to live with long-term. That’s the direction that many experts hope we’re headed in with SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic, as my colleague Sarah Zhang has written.

We’re not yet at the point where we can officially label post-vaccination COVID-19 cases as “modified”; maybe we never will be. Some immunized people are still getting dangerously sick. But the shots are softening COVID-19’s sharp edges: On average, breakthrough infections seem to be briefer, milder, and less contagious. Among the fully immunized, catching the coronavirus doesn’t mean the same thing it did last year. “It’s a very different kind of infection than in people who are immunologically naive,” Lindsey Baden, an infectious-disease physician and COVID-19 vaccine researcher at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, told me.

If this virus becomes as inescapable as the culprits behind the colds and flus that trouble us most years, we could all have to grapple with one of these infections, and learn that lesson on a personal level. That’s the social tax of a forever virus: Nearly everyone may eventually know what it is to get COVID-19—but a tamer, more domesticated version of its pre-inoculation self.

Since the start, COVID-19 has been tough to define.

Part of the problem is that COVID-19 is the disease, not the virus. Actual microbes, compared with the problems they cause, are arguably neater conceptual packages. SARS-CoV-2 is a knowable pathogen, a tangle of genetic material swaddled in a protein coat; COVID-19 has fuzzier boundaries, dependent on both the virus and how our bodies react to it. To understand that interaction, researchers had to, unfortunately, wait for a decent number of people to get sick—to observe the virus screwing with us in real time.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... 6USbe3AZFA
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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I was joking with my wife by saying, "Watch. Pfizer's new daily pill to prevent Covid will be based on a protease inhibitor, just like Ivermectin". Was being a smartass and now read it IS based on a protease inhibitor.

Of course I don't know the formulation and the specifics yet, but find it rather odd the primary mechanism of action is the same as Ivermectin, especially since Ivermectin doesn't work... except in poor countries.

It's still early in this story, so I could easily be missing the mark, but find it rather curious.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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CID1990 wrote: Judas Tittifckn Christ dude

Just because you’ve pulled back from all the threads you’ve been wrong on doesn’t mean you have to post War and Fuckin Peace in the few where you have a little juice


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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by 89Hen »

JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:18 pm
89Hen wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:58 am Funny bit, but his point of "I wonder what else they'd bitch about if it just came out today." is not a right thing. Cancel culture is much more on the left.
I don't know if that's true.
It is true John. :coffee:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by 89Hen »

∞∞∞ wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:30 pm
89Hen wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:59 pm

Trader Joe's is one of the most overrated stores to ever exist. And Lidl and Aldi feel like you're shopping in 1980's Soviet Union.
Y'all have some strong and weird opinions on grocery stores. Lidl is like a 1980s Soviet Union store? :rofl:
Y'all as in me, or all of us other than you? Trader Joe's is only good if you're going for a specific item they have, but not to do a regular shop.

I will admit, I have not been in a Lidl, but I assume it's just like Aldi. It's a different way of shopping. Take what they have. I'd rather shop somewhere where I can get what I want. :geek:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

89Hen wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:52 am
∞∞∞ wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:30 pm

Y'all have some strong and weird opinions on grocery stores. Lidl is like a 1980s Soviet Union store? :rofl:
Y'all as in me, or all of us other than you? Trader Joe's is only good if you're going for a specific item they have, but not to do a regular shop.

I will admit, I have not been in a Lidl, but I assume it's just like Aldi. It's a different way of shopping. Take what they have. I'd rather shop somewhere where I can get what I want. :geek:
Lidl is similar to Aldi, but a notch up in quality..
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by CAA Flagship »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:31 am I was joking with my wife by saying, "Watch. Pfizer's new daily pill to prevent Covid will be based on a protease inhibitor, just like Ivermectin". Was being a smartass and now read it IS based on a protease inhibitor.

Of course I don't know the formulation and the specifics yet, but find it rather odd the primary mechanism of action is the same as Ivermectin, especially since Ivermectin doesn't work... except in poor countries.

It's still early in this story, so I could easily be missing the mark, but find it rather curious.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Ibanez »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:31 am I was joking with my wife by saying, "Watch. Pfizer's new daily pill to prevent Covid will be based on a protease inhibitor, just like Ivermectin". Was being a smartass and now read it IS based on a protease inhibitor.

Of course I don't know the formulation and the specifics yet, but find it rather odd the primary mechanism of action is the same as Ivermectin, especially since Ivermectin doesn't work... except in poor countries.

It's still early in this story, so I could easily be missing the mark, but find it rather curious.
HIV and Hep-C drugs are also protease inhibitors...perhaps those should be used for COVID. :mrgreen:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SDHornet »

Trip, Klammy, quick, a black guy off the mindthink reservation. Call the woke police!!!

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