Coronavirus COVID-19
- UNI88
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
SG and Trip - Immunity? Or resistance? Do we have immunity to the flu or have we built up a resistance where we can survive it?SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:36 amHere is the definition of herd immunity.∞∞∞ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:17 am
It did not work, but that's not how herd immunity works!
Let's get a major point out of the way first: vaccines are not 100%. However, they are fantastic at preventing serious illness.
Second major point: We don't know what Covid-19 vaccination rate is needed for herd immunity, but it seems like ~85%. This isn't far off from other viruses. As BDK said, some are naturally immune; 85% vaccination rate plus whatever natural immunity probably gets us there.
Now back to herd immunity: it works by employing layers and layers of protection (like a good IT system). If the virus breaks through one layer (me in this example), it's got a high chance being snuffed out at the next layer. Multiply that scenario over hundreds and thousands of individuals and you've got a good chance at severely limiting how much the virus can spread and do damage. At that point you reach herd immunity and while infection exists, life is normalized to the point where the risk is acceptable.
Take it even further - if humanity has the will - but do that over an incredibly long period of time and you could contain and then completely wipe out a virus. Of course the virus will mutate, but being vaccinated can help prevent mutations from spreading.
"Resistance to the spread of an infectious disease within a population that is based on pre-existing immunity of a high proportion of individuals as a result of previous infection or vaccination."
If your vaccine induced immunity did NOT stop you from getting COVID and becoming symptomatic, then how is that going to help "resistance" to spread? It won't and totally shoots your goal of 85% vaccination rate in the butt. This discussion is playing out in real time in Israel and the UK. Highest vaccination rates in the World and highest case counts since the start.
I'm totally fine with how the vaccines work, as they are preventing serious illness and death, which is what we want. Now hopefully those that have vaccine protection can catch COVID and develop a broader base of immunity without it really hammering them. Then we can start talking about a similar level of herd immunity like we have for the Flu. Just going to live with not eradicating COVID.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Herd immunity is resistance.
The vaccine protects you up to a certain percentage every time you encounter the virus, but with enough encounters, the odds catch up. But the more people vaccinated, the less encounters there will be (aka. resistance). However, some individuals are actually immune.
Influenza - while deadly - doesn't have the mortality rate which Covid-19 does. Nor are the vaccines as effective because it's a guessing game (although mRNA may be a game-changer). It's a unique virus in that way. We can resist influenza (masks, social distancing, vaccinations), but it's tough if not impossible to achieve herd immunity against it.
Sars-CoV-2 is a bit more traditional (so far). While there have been multiple strains, typically one ends up dominating the others. And up until now, the spike protein has been extremely similar in all. This makes it easier for vaccines to keep up despite multiple strains. Influenza attaches - at least from my understanding - through a chemical reaction and each strain has a different way of doing it. Influenza evolves much quicker too because of all the animals it can infect. Covid only seems to infect certain animals besides humans.
The vaccine protects you up to a certain percentage every time you encounter the virus, but with enough encounters, the odds catch up. But the more people vaccinated, the less encounters there will be (aka. resistance). However, some individuals are actually immune.
Influenza - while deadly - doesn't have the mortality rate which Covid-19 does. Nor are the vaccines as effective because it's a guessing game (although mRNA may be a game-changer). It's a unique virus in that way. We can resist influenza (masks, social distancing, vaccinations), but it's tough if not impossible to achieve herd immunity against it.
Sars-CoV-2 is a bit more traditional (so far). While there have been multiple strains, typically one ends up dominating the others. And up until now, the spike protein has been extremely similar in all. This makes it easier for vaccines to keep up despite multiple strains. Influenza attaches - at least from my understanding - through a chemical reaction and each strain has a different way of doing it. Influenza evolves much quicker too because of all the animals it can infect. Covid only seems to infect certain animals besides humans.
Last edited by ∞∞∞ on Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
- SeattleGriz
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Hmm. I would have to say your level of resistance is dependent on your immunity.UNI88 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:31 amSG and Trip - Immunity? Or resistance? Do we have immunity to the flu or have we built up a resistance where we can survive it?SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:36 am
Here is the definition of herd immunity.
"Resistance to the spread of an infectious disease within a population that is based on pre-existing immunity of a high proportion of individuals as a result of previous infection or vaccination."
If your vaccine induced immunity did NOT stop you from getting COVID and becoming symptomatic, then how is that going to help "resistance" to spread? It won't and totally shoots your goal of 85% vaccination rate in the butt. This discussion is playing out in real time in Israel and the UK. Highest vaccination rates in the World and highest case counts since the start.
I'm totally fine with how the vaccines work, as they are preventing serious illness and death, which is what we want. Now hopefully those that have vaccine protection can catch COVID and develop a broader base of immunity without it really hammering them. Then we can start talking about a similar level of herd immunity like we have for the Flu. Just going to live with not eradicating COVID.
When COVID first hit, studies showed around 80% of the population had some level of immunity due to other viruses being similar enough. Obviously that protection didn't prevent some people from becoming symptomatic.
Now those that have actually caught the COVID recently are showing very high levels of immunity. The levels that would be considered sterilizing...meaning you don't pass it on.
The vaccines are doing the same thing. Offering a level of protection that will hopefully make it so when you catch the disease, it doesn't kill you.
A recent study showed that after natural infection, your immune system keeps "analyzing" COVID for up to 24 months and builds it response even further. With the vaccines, it was only 2-4 months of additional analyzing. The vaccines are very narrow, but still help.
Not sure if I answered your question though.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Fauci: 70% vaccination rate needed in U.S. before ‘normal’ returns∞∞∞ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:17 amIt did not work, but that's not how herd immunity works!SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:49 am
Did your vaccination prevent you from getting COVID? See my point? If you were vaccinated, got sick and displayed symptoms, you could have spread to someone else. You'll never reach herd immunity that way.
Let's get a major point out of the way first: vaccines are not 100%. However, they are fantastic at preventing serious illness.
Second major point: We don't know what Covid-19 vaccination rate is needed for herd immunity, but it seems like ~85%. This isn't far off from other viruses. As BDK said, some are naturally immune; 85% vaccination rate plus whatever natural immunity probably gets us there.
Now back to herd immunity: it works by employing layers and layers of protection (like a good IT system). If the virus breaks through one layer (me in this example), it's got a high chance being snuffed out at the next layer. Multiply that scenario over hundreds and thousands of individuals and you've got a good chance at severely limiting how much the virus can spread and do damage. At that point you reach herd immunity and while infection exists, life is normalized to the point where the risk is acceptable.
Take it even further - if humanity has the will - but do that over an incredibly long period of time and you could contain and then completely wipe out a virus. Of course the virus will mutate, but being vaccinated can help prevent mutations from spreading.
https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/f ... QC3JSZRMY/
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
You should read the first sentence in your article.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:38 amFauci: 70% vaccination rate needed in U.S. before ‘normal’ returns∞∞∞ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:17 am
It did not work, but that's not how herd immunity works!
Let's get a major point out of the way first: vaccines are not 100%. However, they are fantastic at preventing serious illness.
Second major point: We don't know what Covid-19 vaccination rate is needed for herd immunity, but it seems like ~85%. This isn't far off from other viruses. As BDK said, some are naturally immune; 85% vaccination rate plus whatever natural immunity probably gets us there.
Now back to herd immunity: it works by employing layers and layers of protection (like a good IT system). If the virus breaks through one layer (me in this example), it's got a high chance being snuffed out at the next layer. Multiply that scenario over hundreds and thousands of individuals and you've got a good chance at severely limiting how much the virus can spread and do damage. At that point you reach herd immunity and while infection exists, life is normalized to the point where the risk is acceptable.
Take it even further - if humanity has the will - but do that over an incredibly long period of time and you could contain and then completely wipe out a virus. Of course the virus will mutate, but being vaccinated can help prevent mutations from spreading.
https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/f ... QC3JSZRMY/
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
you should both read the DATE of that article.∞∞∞ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:44 amYou should read the first sentence in your article.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:38 am
Fauci: 70% vaccination rate needed in U.S. before ‘normal’ returns
https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/f ... QC3JSZRMY/
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
I did. Not sure the point.
Fauci made an educated guess of 70%-85% vaccination rate which is in-line with knowledge of other viruses/vaccines.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
You said we needed 85% with no acknolwledgement it could be 70%.
And last year the goal post mover was saying 60-70%.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
As we suspected, vaccine mandates are racist.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/black- ... yc-hostess
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/black- ... yc-hostess
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Dude. He's a civil engineer working as a substitute teacher.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
It didn't even change in this specific case. There was an estimated range predicted where things could be back to normal. Fauci didn't say 85% equals herd immunity. No one is saying Denmark has herd immunity either, just that things are looking up.
I personally said ~85% is where we see herd immunity for other viruses. Could obviously be more or less. Maybe never.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
∞∞∞ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:40 pmIt didn't even change in this specific case. There was an estimated range predicted where things could be back to normal. Fauci didn't say 85% equals herd immunity. No one is saying Denmark has herd immunity either, just that things are looking up.
I personally said ~85% is where we see herd immunity for other viruses. Could obviously be more or less. Maybe never.
“If you really want true herd immunity, where you get a blanket of protection over the country ... you want about 75 to 85 percent of the country to get vaccinated,” Fauci, the longtime head of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a live-recorded interview with Rameswaram, the host of Today, Explained. “I would say even closer to 85 percent.”
https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19 ... unity-goal
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Well then I'm mistaken.89Hen wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:03 pm∞∞∞ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:40 pm
It didn't even change in this specific case. There was an estimated range predicted where things could be back to normal. Fauci didn't say 85% equals herd immunity. No one is saying Denmark has herd immunity either, just that things are looking up.
I personally said ~85% is where we see herd immunity for other viruses. Could obviously be more or less. Maybe never.“If you really want true herd immunity, where you get a blanket of protection over the country ... you want about 75 to 85 percent of the country to get vaccinated,” Fauci, the longtime head of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a live-recorded interview with Rameswaram, the host of Today, Explained. “I would say even closer to 85 percent.”
https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19 ... unity-goal
The article BDK posted is a prediction to "back to normal." Still, Fauci is giving people a range, not an exact number (I assume based on historical precedent). This is how science works and the data will constantly be evaluated.
Last edited by ∞∞∞ on Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
For the left when its convenient it isn’t settled and can change its mind.
When its not (global warming) its ‘settled science’
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
There are a lot of people that don't understand that, mostly the ones that crawl on the bottoms of the political spectrum.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Because it's settled science. We have decades of data that climate change is real and affecting us in profound ways.
For Covid-19, the vaccine is new and we don't have data about herd immunity besides predictive modeling. Nothing is settled.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Climate is always changing and the species that live on earth are changing to adapt to the new climate everyday. Do I wear a coat today, or a rain jacket? Political entities begging for money are trying to change something that can't be put back in a bottle.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Climate is always changing, but the rate of change has picked up rapidly the last few decades.Gil Dobie wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pmClimate is always changing and the species that live on earth are changing to adapt to the new climate everyday. Do I wear a coat today, or a rain jacket? Political entities begging for money are trying to change something that can't be put back in a bottle.
When we're talking timelines as long as Earth's, rapid rates of change only happen during catastrophic events. There shouldn't be a reason we're seeing changes so quick, but we do know how carbon dioxide interacts with other elements. We know we're dumping a ton of it in the air. We also know we've deforested large regions which convert CO2/H2O back to oxygen and glucose. The rapid changes coincide with humans doing this. At that point it's settled science. The trickier part is building good climate models and finding solutions. A good one is to stop dumping carbon dioxide.
Flat out denying humans are causing a major change is denying the science.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
I don’t even bother anymore.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
..peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard..
JMU Football: 2022 & 2023 Sun Belt East Champions...But you have to go home now. We have to have peace…
..I know how you feel, but go home, and go home in peace.
- Gil Dobie
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Science is never settled. If the science was settled, we would know exactly how to control the climate, we can't, that's why we adapt, if we can't adapt, then another species will. The climate change money mongers use the changing climate to line their pocket books, algore, and don't really care about anything else, algore. It helps to have millions of followers believing in their money scheme.∞∞∞ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:28 pmClimate is always changing, but the rate of change has picked up rapidly the last few decades.Gil Dobie wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm
Climate is always changing and the species that live on earth are changing to adapt to the new climate everyday. Do I wear a coat today, or a rain jacket? Political entities begging for money are trying to change something that can't be put back in a bottle.
When we're talking timelines as long as Earth's, rapid rates of change only happen during catastrophic events. There shouldn't be a reason we're seeing changes so quick, but we do know how carbon dioxide interacts with other elements. We know we're dumping a ton of it in the air. We also know we've deforested large regions which convert CO2/H2O back to oxygen and glucose. The rapid changes coincide with humans doing this. At that point it's settled science. The trickier part is building good climate models and finding solutions. A good one is to stop dumping carbon dioxide.
Flat out denying humans are causing a major change is denying the science.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
So science is only when you can control something?Gil Dobie wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:28 pmScience is never settled. If the science was settled, we would know exactly how to control the climate, we can't, that's why we adapt, if we can't adapt, then another species will. The climate change money mongers use the changing climate to line their pocket books, algore, and don't really care about anything else, algore. It helps to have millions of followers believing in their money scheme.∞∞∞ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:28 pm
Climate is always changing, but the rate of change has picked up rapidly the last few decades.
When we're talking timelines as long as Earth's, rapid rates of change only happen during catastrophic events. There shouldn't be a reason we're seeing changes so quick, but we do know how carbon dioxide interacts with other elements. We know we're dumping a ton of it in the air. We also know we've deforested large regions which convert CO2/H2O back to oxygen and glucose. The rapid changes coincide with humans doing this. At that point it's settled science. The trickier part is building good climate models and finding solutions. A good one is to stop dumping carbon dioxide.
Flat out denying humans are causing a major change is denying the science.
Are we really still arguing whether global warming is a hoax?