Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:17 am
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:43 am

20 plus percent of people that have had a positive covid test, did not create antibodies, while others would get more protection from getting a serious infection.
So maybe those 20% had a false positive. Got any links?
You didn't watch the video I posted a couple days ago. Stats are in that video.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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93henfan wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:16 am Image
That’s some hard core shit right there! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

In case this hasn't been referenced yet:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/09 ... eaks-3-5x/

"Schools with universal masking were 3.5 times less likely to have a COVID-19 outbreak and saw rates of child COVID-19 cases 50 percent lower in their counties compared with schools without mask requirements. That's according to two new studies published Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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A COVID outbreak at a school? The horror!!!

Of the 688,000 Americans who have died from COVID, less than 500 were children.

COVID is way behind automobiles, pools, weather, and horny uncles on the list of concerns for kids in this country.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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93henfan wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:33 pm A COVID outbreak at a school? The horror!!!

Of the 688,000 Americans who have died from COVID, less than 500 were children.

COVID is way behind automobiles, pools, weather, and horny uncles on the list of concerns for kids in this country.
We are trying to control and hopefully end a pandemic. It is important that we reduce circulation of the pathogen (or pathogens if you consider variants different pathogens) to the greatest extent possible. I don't know why so may people don't get that.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... 20COVID-19.
Similar to adults with SARS-CoV-2 infections, children and adolescents can spread SARS-CoV-2 to others when they do not have symptoms or have mild, non-specific symptoms and thus might not know that they are infected and infectious.
Also, there are a lot of parents who would rather their kids not get COVID-19. When one person's kid goes into a group of other kids without a mask, that is not a "personal choice to take my own risk" thing. That's another thing a lot of people don't seem to get. Especially Trump-fan type people.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Just thought I'd go ahead and post that I saw Peter Hotez on TV saying that he thinks it would take a 90% fully vaccinated rate to achieve the population effect we need to end the pandemic. You may already be familiar with him but I'll link something to establish his credentials:

https://www.texaschildrens.org/find-a-d ... tez-md-phd

I'd heard that before from other experts in the field but I've had a hard time finding it in writing on the internet. I have been able to find stuff like this:

https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/co ... d-immunity
Experts estimate that herd immunity would require around 80-90% of the population to have COVID-19 immunity, either through prior infection or vaccination.
Anyway, that kind of thing is why I shake my head when people refer to ANY jurisdiction having a "high" vaccination rate. The highest fully vaccinated rate we have among States right now is Vermont at 69%. That's not nearly enough to do it.

And it's very sad because safe and effective vaccines that would do the trick if they were sufficiently administered are readily available so that the only reason we can't get a sufficient rate is people listening to misinformation. Very sad.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:59 pm
93henfan wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:33 pm A COVID outbreak at a school? The horror!!!

Of the 688,000 Americans who have died from COVID, less than 500 were children.

COVID is way behind automobiles, pools, weather, and horny uncles on the list of concerns for kids in this country.
We are trying to control and hopefully end a pandemic. It is important that we reduce circulation of the pathogen (or pathogens if you consider variants different pathogens) to the greatest extent possible. I don't know why so may people don't get that.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... 20COVID-19.
Similar to adults with SARS-CoV-2 infections, children and adolescents can spread SARS-CoV-2 to others when they do not have symptoms or have mild, non-specific symptoms and thus might not know that they are infected and infectious.
Also, there are a lot of parents who would rather their kids not get COVID-19. When one person's kid goes into a group of other kids without a mask, that is not a "personal choice to take my own risk" thing. That's another thing a lot of people don't seem to get. Especially Trump-fan type people.
So what. The China Virus has killed 400 some kids under the age of 18, out of 80 or so million, in a yr and a half. That’s far less than than seasonal flu. Far less than car accidents. Did we make kids wear masks in schools before the China Virus? No. Do we let kids ride in cars?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:14 pm Just thought I'd go ahead and post that I saw Peter Hotez on TV saying that he thinks it would take a 90% fully vaccinated rate to achieve the population effect we need to end the pandemic. You may already be familiar with him but I'll link something to establish his credentials:

https://www.texaschildrens.org/find-a-d ... tez-md-phd

I'd heard that before from other experts in the field but I've had a hard time finding it in writing on the internet. I have been able to find stuff like this:

https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/co ... d-immunity
Experts estimate that herd immunity would require around 80-90% of the population to have COVID-19 immunity, either through prior infection or vaccination.
Anyway, that kind of thing is why I shake my head when people refer to ANY jurisdiction having a "high" vaccination rate. The highest fully vaccinated rate we have among States right now is Vermont at 69%. That's not nearly enough to do it.

And it's very sad because safe and effective vaccines that would do the trick if they were sufficiently administered are readily available so that the only reason we can't get a sufficient rate is people listening to misinformation. Very sad.
And you’ve completely ignored natural immunity. If the 90% includes that, you may have a point.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Hey JSO, is this coronabro guy you?

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2021/09 ... -american/
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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BDKJMU wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:48 pm Hey JSO, is this coronabro guy you?

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2021/09 ... -american/
We can probably clog this entire thread with videos of covidiots harassing people at private establishments and chanting "you can take my land, but you'll never take my Panda Express!"
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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BDKJMU wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:26 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:14 pm Just thought I'd go ahead and post that I saw Peter Hotez on TV saying that he thinks it would take a 90% fully vaccinated rate to achieve the population effect we need to end the pandemic. You may already be familiar with him but I'll link something to establish his credentials:

https://www.texaschildrens.org/find-a-d ... tez-md-phd

I'd heard that before from other experts in the field but I've had a hard time finding it in writing on the internet. I have been able to find stuff like this:

https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/co ... d-immunity



Anyway, that kind of thing is why I shake my head when people refer to ANY jurisdiction having a "high" vaccination rate. The highest fully vaccinated rate we have among States right now is Vermont at 69%. That's not nearly enough to do it.

And it's very sad because safe and effective vaccines that would do the trick if they were sufficiently administered are readily available so that the only reason we can't get a sufficient rate is people listening to misinformation. Very sad.
And you’ve completely ignored natural immunity. If the 90% includes that, you may have a point.
It is a complex calculation. It has been pretty conclusively shown that, in this instance, having had COVID-19 is not as protective as being vaccinated is. Here is one study estimating that people who had COVID-19 but were not vaccinated were 2.34 times as likely to get COVID-19 again than people who got it then were later vaccinated were: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021 ... ction.html.

Another thing: If you just take the CDC estimate for number of infections and the number fully vaccinated and add them together it is about 92% of the US population. But you can't do that. Many of the 120 million infections that the CDC estimates there have been were asymptomatic. Many of those people undoubtably don't know they were infected and were vaccinated. There is also some number of people who do know they had it and were cases and still got vaccinated later.

So you've got some complications in assessing the extent of immunity. Hotez thinks it would take a 90% vaccination rate and I am confident he is aware of the potential impact of having been infected without having been vaccinated.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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93henfan wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:33 pm A COVID outbreak at a school? The horror!!!

Of the 688,000 Americans who have died from COVID, less than 500 were children.

COVID is way behind automobiles, pools, weather, and horny uncles on the list of concerns for kids in this country.
Yep. :lol:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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This discussion made me curious about how prevalent instances in which someone has been infected but also was vaccinated might be. For better or for worse, the most recent CDC estimate on number of infections was posted back on May 29. See https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... urden.html. The estimated number of infections was 120.2 million.

There was also an estimate of number of symptomatic cases. It was 101.8 million. But I think that, in thinking about how prevalent the "infected but also vaccinated" scenario might be, we should look at the number of reported cases because that's the number of cases that have been recognized. On May 29, according to WorldoMeters, the cummulative number of reported cases in the United States was 34,017,881. I'll round that to 34.0 million.

So, as of May 29, only (34/120.2) x 100 = 28 percent of infections were recognized. Another way to look at it is that there had been 120.2 - 34 = 86.2 million infections that hadn't been recognized as such. How many of those cases have been vaccinated as well as having been infected? No way to know for sure. And, again, we also have some number of instances in which we know people were infected as well as vaccinated. There have been cases in which people got infected then got vaccinated later as well as cases of people who got vaccinated then got infected later. I'm guessing CDC can and maybe has devised a way to estimate the total number of people who have been infected and/or vaccinated. But it's clearly not a matter of just adding the number who have been infected and the number who have been vaccinated.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:25 am
BDKJMU wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:26 pm
And you’ve completely ignored natural immunity. If the 90% includes that, you may have a point.
It is a complex calculation. It has been pretty conclusively shown that, in this instance, having had COVID-19 is not as protective as being vaccinated is. Here is one study estimating that people who had COVID-19 but were not vaccinated were 2.34 times as likely to get COVID-19 again than people who got it then were later vaccinated were: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021 ... ction.html.

Another thing: If you just take the CDC estimate for number of infections and the number fully vaccinated and add them together it is about 92% of the US population. But you can't do that. Many of the 120 million infections that the CDC estimates there have been were asymptomatic. Many of those people undoubtably don't know they were infected and were vaccinated. There is also some number of people who do know they had it and were cases and still got vaccinated later.

So you've got some complications in assessing the extent of immunity. Hotez thinks it would take a 90% vaccination rate and I am confident he is aware of the potential impact of having been infected without having been vaccinated.
Wrong- that has not been conclusively shown at all. You cite a a CDC study out of Kentucky with 246 participants. Well, The Israeli study (they have far better data than we do) had over 673k participants, and has shown that natural immunity is 26x better than the vaccine.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News ... spx/312538
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
The Cleveland Clinic study (52k participants) indicated natural immunity superior to vaccinated:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... study.aspx

Study out of Washington makes a strong case for natural immunity:
https://medicine.wustl.edu/news/good-ne ... rotection/
Last edited by BDKJMU on Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:04 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Gallup poll on vaccination requirements:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/354506/upd ... ments.aspx
Majorities of Americans now favor requiring people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to travel by airplane, stay in a hotel, attend events with large crowds, dine in a restaurant and go to their office or work site.
I wonder if the right-wingers that keep trying to cast vaccine mandates as some kind of totalitarian conspiracy are aware that the majority of the people in the country actually support them.

Again: Other people have a right to say you can't be around them if you're not vaccinated.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Natural immunity will be part of legal challenge to Biden’s unconstitutional mandate on private employees.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural- ... 06323.html
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:45 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:17 am

So maybe those 20% had a false positive. Got any links?
You didn't watch the video I posted a couple days ago. Stats are in that video.
Sorry. Don't have an hour and twenty three minutes to wait for the stat. Lol
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:25 am
BDKJMU wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:26 pm
And you’ve completely ignored natural immunity. If the 90% includes that, you may have a point.
It is a complex calculation. It has been pretty conclusively shown that, in this instance, having had COVID-19 is not as protective as being vaccinated is. Here is one study estimating that people who had COVID-19 but were not vaccinated were 2.34 times as likely to get COVID-19 again than people who got it then were later vaccinated were: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021 ... ction.html.

Another thing: If you just take the CDC estimate for number of infections and the number fully vaccinated and add them together it is about 92% of the US population. But you can't do that. Many of the 120 million infections that the CDC estimates there have been were asymptomatic. Many of those people undoubtably don't know they were infected and were vaccinated. There is also some number of people who do know they had it and were cases and still got vaccinated later.

So you've got some complications in assessing the extent of immunity. Hotez thinks it would take a 90% vaccination rate and I am confident he is aware of the potential impact of having been infected without having been vaccinated.
Sorry bro. That Kentucky CDC study got brutalized for it's assumptions and methodology.

Plus, even if you accepted all the flaws:
If you believe the CDC study, the 0.09% baseline risk of reinfection in the previously reinfected, would be reduced to roughly a 0.04% risk. This means, you would need to vaccinate 2,000 previously infected individuals to save ONE positive PCR test (and even that one would likely be mild)!
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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BDKJMU wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:57 am
JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:25 am

It is a complex calculation. It has been pretty conclusively shown that, in this instance, having had COVID-19 is not as protective as being vaccinated is. Here is one study estimating that people who had COVID-19 but were not vaccinated were 2.34 times as likely to get COVID-19 again than people who got it then were later vaccinated were: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021 ... ction.html.

Another thing: If you just take the CDC estimate for number of infections and the number fully vaccinated and add them together it is about 92% of the US population. But you can't do that. Many of the 120 million infections that the CDC estimates there have been were asymptomatic. Many of those people undoubtably don't know they were infected and were vaccinated. There is also some number of people who do know they had it and were cases and still got vaccinated later.

So you've got some complications in assessing the extent of immunity. Hotez thinks it would take a 90% vaccination rate and I am confident he is aware of the potential impact of having been infected without having been vaccinated.
Wrong- that has not been conclusively shown at all. You cite a a CDC study out of Kentucky with 246 participants. Well, The Israeli study (they have far better data than we do) had over 673k participants, and has shown that natural immunity is 26x better than the vaccine.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News ... spx/312538
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
The Cleveland Clinic study (52k participants) indicated natural immunity superior to vaccinated:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... study.aspx

Study out of Washington makes a strong case for natural immunity:
https://medicine.wustl.edu/news/good-ne ... rotection/
Very good. I misstated what the CDC study shows. It did not compare natural infection alone vs. vaccination alone in terms of protection against getting infected in the future. It compared those who had been naturally infected then got vaccinated to those who had been naturally infected and did not get vaccinated. So it was natural infection + vaccination vs. natural infection alone. And it showed natural infection + vaccinated cuts the risk as compared to natural infection alone.

The authors of the Israeli study concluded that as well. I looked up a Fact Check on the Israeli study and found that there are some concerns about it (https://www.factcheck.org/2021/09/scich ... -immunity/). I also learned from the fact check that there is at least one study that indicated a different conclusion, at least for the Pfizer vaccine. You can see it at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 237v1.full. Here is a quote:
There was no evidence that the effectiveness of two ChAdOx1 vaccinations ≥14 days previously in preventing new PCR-positives differed from the protection afforded by previous natural infection without vaccination (heterogeneity p=0.33), whereas two BNT162b2 vaccinations afforded greater protection (p=0.04).
BNT162b2 is the Pfizer vaccine.

So the two studies have contradictory results. Neither has yet been through PEER review and publication. We'll see what happens with that.

The link on the Seattle thing brought me to the Israeli study.

The Cleveland Clinic study appears to be the outlier. All of the other ones including the CDC MMWR one indicate that being vaccinated lowers the risk regardless of whether the subject has been previously infected or not.

So, except from the Cleveland Clinic study, there is no disagreement about vaccination cutting the risk.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Here is what I think is a good and recent article on the question of Natural Immunity vs. Vaccination:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politi ... 37818.html

As an aside, I found this one where a health group unequivocally believes natural immunity is not as good:

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/covid ... accination

Another one that, I THINK appears to take that position:

https://www.immunology.org/coronavirus/ ... on-vaccine

And one that, I THINK, appears to say that there may be an advantage to natural infection:

https://www.rockefeller.edu/news/30919- ... es-emerge/

My bet is that, when all the dust settles, the conclusion will be that the vaccines confer better protection, on average, than natural infection does. That is in consideration of the belief that vaccines are more likely to protect you against new variants than natural infection by one variant will afford. But we'll see.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 12:21 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:45 am

You didn't watch the video I posted a couple days ago. Stats are in that video.
Sorry. Don't have an hour and twenty three minutes to wait for the stat. Lol
It's a good video, I would recommend it.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by HI54UNI »

Since we're 4 weeks into college FB with packed stadiums and little masking shouldn't we be seeing a huge increase in illness and death?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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HI54UNI wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:46 am Since we're 4 weeks into college FB with packed stadiums and little masking shouldn't we be seeing a huge increase in illness and death?
Should be seeing an increase in cases. Hospitalizations and deaths tend to lag. Many parts of the country are not doing well. Plus…the vaccine is working.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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kalm wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:33 am Plus…the vaccine is working.
Oh, now it's working
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