Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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“Tolerance and Apathy are the last virtues of a dying society.” Aristotle

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by UNI88 »

Col Hogan wrote: Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:30 am
That fvckup trump fast-tracked an inadequate vaccine. It's all his fault! ;)
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Col Hogan wrote: Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:30 am
A coordinated campaign of lies put forth by officials at the highest levels of government through early-mid 2021, and if you pointed out otherwise on the biggest social media platforms, you would get banned. Truly Orwellian.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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The only thing she's missing is the funny little mustache.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Like I said before, the most destructive health sector bureaucrat in the history of the US, and he can’t be gone soon enough.
Anthony Fauci Says If We Could Do It Again, COVID-19 Restrictions Would Be 'Much, Much More Stringent'
https://reason.com/2022/07/25/anthony-f ... ons-masks/
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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BDKJMU wrote: Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:42 pm Like I said before, the most destructive health sector bureaucrat in the history of the US, and he can’t be gone soon enough.
Anthony Fauci Says If We Could Do It Again, COVID-19 Restrictions Would Be 'Much, Much More Stringent'
https://reason.com/2022/07/25/anthony-f ... ons-masks/
The CDC, FDA, Fauci and the medical community have done untold damage to the industry. Good luck getting anyone to give a shit when it may really be needed. COVID was not the hill to die on.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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A win for facial freedom. At this point, no school should be mandating masks..
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s executive order that forbids school districts from imposing mask mandates on schools to prevent the spread of COVID-19 has been upheld by a divided federal appeals court panel.

The ruling from the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ended a lower federal court injunction allowing such mandates….
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/appea ... ar-AAZZPx3
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Biden with the China Virus:
Thur, 7/21: Tests positive.
7/22-7/25: ?
Tues, 7/26: Tests negative.
Wed, 7/27: Tests negative.
Thur, 7/28: Tests negative.
Fri, 7/29: Tests negative.

Sat, 7/30: Tests positive.
Sun, 7/31: Tests positive.
Mon, 8/1: Tests positive.
Tues, 8/2 Tests positive, return of symptoms
Wed, 8/3: Tests positive.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Family finally got COVID last week. Youngest came home from Boy Scout camp and caught it there (which is odd, the camp was basically outdoors in the woods, not really any inside time). Just had some mild generic symptoms and we were set to start our vacation week down the shore so we didn't test right away (have only sparingly tested the kids during this pandemic, can't test for every cold/allergy symptom when they pop up). Got down there Saturday, by Monday the wife wasn't feeling great. Tested her and the kid and both were positive. Took the wife home to isolate and stayed with the kids at the beach house (already paid up for the week). By Thursday I was having symptoms. All went home on Friday. I started the Paxvolid then and my wife had been on it for 3 days. Didn't care for it at all. Mouth tasted all metalic and had nausea so I stopped after just one of ten doses and my wife stopped I guess after 6 or 7. Didn't take all that long to feel better, and back into work by Wednesday (work has a strict rule of isolation from day 0 - day you test - to day 5. Strange, work only recommends wearing a mask when coming back, I'm wearing one just "out of an abundance of caution" :) ). Everyone in the family is vaccinated and fully boosted.

Definitely, at this point, I don't see much value in the current vaccine. If we still have any mandates on it I think we're being incredibly naive. Just doesn't do much against the current virus. We have the Paxvolid for the unvaccinated if they want it (my doctor had told me for the vaccinated and the under 70 crowd, it didn't make much sense to take it - just as much chance to have a negative side effect from it as to benefit from it - I felt that with the nausea and just stopped taking it immediately). The vaccine served it's purpose and I don't regret getting it or boosted, but heck, I was boosted in early November so that was ages ago.

Not sure why we don't have a better vaccine out there for the Omicron variant. We've known about it for a good 8-9 months now. Unless we all hide in our homes then there's certainly a decent chance to get it. And given that it's not very impactful (hospitalization and/or death wise) this seems to be trending towards the flu kind of protocol - get a shot or nasal spray once a year (twice if we think we need to be that reactive) that targets the version of the virus that's actually out there and move on. My dad's over 80 and I know he got another booster (his second booster) in June and even he thought what is the purpose of a booster for a version of the virus that isn't circulating any more. No more boosters for me until they come up with something that's relevant.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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GannonFan wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:20 am Family finally got COVID last week. Youngest came home from Boy Scout camp and caught it there (which is odd, the camp was basically outdoors in the woods, not really any inside time). Just had some mild generic symptoms and we were set to start our vacation week down the shore so we didn't test right away (have only sparingly tested the kids during this pandemic, can't test for every cold/allergy symptom when they pop up). Got down there Saturday, by Monday the wife wasn't feeling great. Tested her and the kid and both were positive. Took the wife home to isolate and stayed with the kids at the beach house (already paid up for the week). By Thursday I was having symptoms. All went home on Friday. I started the Paxvolid then and my wife had been on it for 3 days. Didn't care for it at all. Mouth tasted all metalic and had nausea so I stopped after just one of ten doses and my wife stopped I guess after 6 or 7. Didn't take all that long to feel better, and back into work by Wednesday (work has a strict rule of isolation from day 0 - day you test - to day 5. Strange, work only recommends wearing a mask when coming back, I'm wearing one just "out of an abundance of caution" :) ). Everyone in the family is vaccinated and fully boosted.

Definitely, at this point, I don't see much value in the current vaccine. If we still have any mandates on it I think we're being incredibly naive. Just doesn't do much against the current virus. We have the Paxvolid for the unvaccinated if they want it (my doctor had told me for the vaccinated and the under 70 crowd, it didn't make much sense to take it - just as much chance to have a negative side effect from it as to benefit from it - I felt that with the nausea and just stopped taking it immediately). The vaccine served it's purpose and I don't regret getting it or boosted, but heck, I was boosted in early November so that was ages ago.

Not sure why we don't have a better vaccine out there for the Omicron variant. We've known about it for a good 8-9 months now. Unless we all hide in our homes then there's certainly a decent chance to get it. And given that it's not very impactful (hospitalization and/or death wise) this seems to be trending towards the flu kind of protocol - get a shot or nasal spray once a year (twice if we think we need to be that reactive) that targets the version of the virus that's actually out there and move on. My dad's over 80 and I know he got another booster (his second booster) in June and even he thought what is the purpose of a booster for a version of the virus that isn't circulating any more. No more boosters for me until they come up with something that's relevant.

Glad to hear you and your family made it through relatively unscathed. Sorry to hear it messed with your vacation.

In regards to why we don't have a better vaccine, Covid simply mutates too fast. It's why the manufacturers asked for a "future formulations" approval. Get to skip clinical trials and get the reformulated version out quicker.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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All cause mortality is up. Wonder what could be causing that. Hmmm.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Denmark with the wise decision. No one under 18 is allowed to get COVID vaccinations unless they have an underlying issue.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Huh. Who pointed this out with the Stanford U study months ago? Me.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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This is a REALLY long post but I had fun doing the statistics. The end of the story is that you can "do your own research" by looking directly at data available on line to generate results consistent with the belief that there have been a lot fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States than there would have been without vaccinations. If it's not out there already I would love to see somebody who likes to publish things take a look at this using something like Poisson regression. States with higher vaccination rates have generally had lower cumulative case and death rates. And it's not unreasonable to think that vaccination has prevented hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 deaths.

There is a “statistically significant” association such that States with higher vaccination rates tend to have lower cumulative COVID-19 case and death rates. I say that based on looking at the State by State fully vaccinated rates and boosted rates as of August 3, 2022 indicated at https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... ter%20dose. and the State by State by State case and death rates as of August 10, 2022 indicated at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/.

Here are some Pearson correlation coefficients (r) for associations (n = 50 in each case):

% Fully Vaccinated vs. Case Rate, r = -0.317, 97.5% confidence.

% Boosted vs. Case Rate, r = -0.358, 98.9% confidence.

% Fully Vaccinated vs. Death Rate, r = -0.507, 99.99% confidence.

% Boosted vs. Death Rate, r = -0.567, >99.99% confidence.

I also did some ordinary least squares regression (OLS) analysis. That is not ideal because the dependent variable in each case is rate data. Poisson regression would be more appropriate. But I do not have the software for that and I could not find an on line Poisson regression calculator. Also, I think the practical reality is that the results of OLS regression should be similar to those of Poisson regression in this circumstance. See https://timeseriesreasoning.com/content ... data-sets/. I tested residuals of each regression I did for evidence of departure from normal distribution of residuals using Shaprio Wilk at 90% confidence.

I used various regressions to do point estimates of decline in death rate, on average, for each percentage point increase in vaccination rate. This is what I got:

1357 decline in Case Rate and 45 decline in Death Rate for each percentage point increase in %Fully Vaccinated. Note: There is significant departure from normality in distribution of residuals for regression involving Case Rate but not for regression involving Death Rate.

1701 decline in Case Rate and 56 decline in Death Rate for each percentage point increase in % Boosted. Note: There is significant departure from normality in distribution of residuals for regression involving Case Rate but not for regression involving Death Rate.

I also looked at the effects of State by State % population >65 years old using data at https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us- ... he-oldest/ and State by State population densities (persons per square mile) using data at https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... -densities . These are the Case and Death rate models I ended up selecting as best (given the way I did things):

Case Rate = 421711 – (228844 x %Fully Vaccinated) + (57 x Population Density)

Death Rate = 3371 – (8138 x %Boosted + (11647 x %Population >65) +
(1.35 x Population Density)

Using those, the point estimate for the decline in Case Rate for each percentage point increase in % Fully Vaccinated when Population Density is held constant is 2,288 and the decline in Death Rate for each percentage point increase in % Boosted when % Population > 65 and Population Density are held constant is 81. Distributions of residuals for those two models do not significantly depart from normality.

Additional thoughts:

As one would expect, % Fully Vaccinated and % Boosted are highly correlated (r = 0.905).

The analyses are about association and cannot be used to infer cause and effect. Other factors could be involved. For example: States with higher percentages of persons being Fully Vaccinated and Boosted may tend to also have higher percentages of persons engaging in other behaviors, such as masking and social distancing, that reduce risk.

Nevertheless, the associations are consistent with the belief that vaccination does reduce the adverse impacts. Using the point estimate for the single independent variable % Boosted regression to roughly approximate by applying it to the population of the United States, one would expect a 10% positive change in Boosted rate to be associated with 187,632 fewer deaths. That is 18% of the total US COVID-19 deaths so far.

And recall that a lot of those total deaths occurred before vaccinations were available and especially before people began to get boosters.

I did a couple of logistic regression models including the same independent variables as those in the two multiple regression models listed above. I coded Case and Death Rates greater than the median of each as 1 and those below the median as 0. The logistic regression models are consistent with the OLS models in terms of all independent variables being significant at >95% confidence, the order in terms of the significance levels of independent variable coefficients relative to each other, and the +/- signs of the coefficients.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

GannonFan wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:20 am Family finally got COVID last week. Youngest came home from Boy Scout camp and caught it there (which is odd, the camp was basically outdoors in the woods, not really any inside time). Just had some mild generic symptoms and we were set to start our vacation week down the shore so we didn't test right away (have only sparingly tested the kids during this pandemic, can't test for every cold/allergy symptom when they pop up). Got down there Saturday, by Monday the wife wasn't feeling great. Tested her and the kid and both were positive. Took the wife home to isolate and stayed with the kids at the beach house (already paid up for the week). By Thursday I was having symptoms. All went home on Friday. I started the Paxvolid then and my wife had been on it for 3 days. Didn't care for it at all. Mouth tasted all metalic and had nausea so I stopped after just one of ten doses and my wife stopped I guess after 6 or 7. Didn't take all that long to feel better, and back into work by Wednesday (work has a strict rule of isolation from day 0 - day you test - to day 5. Strange, work only recommends wearing a mask when coming back, I'm wearing one just "out of an abundance of caution" :) ). Everyone in the family is vaccinated and fully boosted.

Definitely, at this point, I don't see much value in the current vaccine. If we still have any mandates on it I think we're being incredibly naive. Just doesn't do much against the current virus. We have the Paxvolid for the unvaccinated if they want it (my doctor had told me for the vaccinated and the under 70 crowd, it didn't make much sense to take it - just as much chance to have a negative side effect from it as to benefit from it - I felt that with the nausea and just stopped taking it immediately). The vaccine served it's purpose and I don't regret getting it or boosted, but heck, I was boosted in early November so that was ages ago.

Not sure why we don't have a better vaccine out there for the Omicron variant. We've known about it for a good 8-9 months now. Unless we all hide in our homes then there's certainly a decent chance to get it. And given that it's not very impactful (hospitalization and/or death wise) this seems to be trending towards the flu kind of protocol - get a shot or nasal spray once a year (twice if we think we need to be that reactive) that targets the version of the virus that's actually out there and move on. My dad's over 80 and I know he got another booster (his second booster) in June and even he thought what is the purpose of a booster for a version of the virus that isn't circulating any more. No more boosters for me until they come up with something that's relevant.
I think a booster that is more effective against Omicron will be probably be available this fall. The current vaccines do reduce the risk of being a case and more so of becoming seriously ill is you stay up to date with vaccine recommendations (which means being fully vaccinated and boosted...which only 32% of the population has done). I can provide some literature on that if somebody doubts it. But I'm not going to do that now because I have stuff to do to day and already spent a bunch of time doing the analyses and writing up the stuff you see in the last post.

It's still not like the seasonal flu. It's not as bad as it was but the average daily death rate for the United States over the week ending yesterday is 315.7 (to the nearest 10th). That average rate over a year would mean 115,235 deaths.

At https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html you can see that the highest estimated number of deaths for any of the flu seasons ending with 2019 - 2020 is 52,000. Even if you look at the upper limit of 95% confidence for the estimate, that's 95,500.

We have had and are having a lot fewer cases and especially deaths than we would be having without vaccinations in spite of the fact that public health officials are trying to herd cats devoted to misinformation and therefore can't get the "up to date" vaccination rate up to anything close to the level we really need. And I think public health officials are just becoming resigned to the fact that they can't fix stupid.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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There have been over 94,000,000 cases (and that’s just confirmed tested positive cases) in the US. Just over 1,000,000 deaths. 955,000 of those deaths are age 50 and over. And well over half are aged 75 and over. You have (collectively) about a 1.1% chance of dying if you contract COVID. And that goes WAY down the younger you are and the healthier you are beforehand.

I’ll take my chances. No more shots or boosters for this guy. And any political moron (redundant, I know) that mandates masks for kindergarteners should be drawn and quartered.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:26 am This is a REALLY long post but I had fun doing the statistics. The end of the story is that you can "do your own research" by looking directly at data available on line to generate results consistent with the belief that there have been a lot fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States than there would have been without vaccinations. If it's not out there already I would love to see somebody who likes to publish things take a look at this using something like Poisson regression. States with higher vaccination rates have generally had lower cumulative case and death rates. And it's not unreasonable to think that vaccination has prevented hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 deaths.

There is a “statistically significant” association such that States with higher vaccination rates tend to have lower cumulative COVID-19 case and death rates. I say that based on looking at the State by State fully vaccinated rates and boosted rates as of August 3, 2022 indicated at https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... ter%20dose. and the State by State by State case and death rates as of August 10, 2022 indicated at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/.

Here are some Pearson correlation coefficients (r) for associations (n = 50 in each case):

% Fully Vaccinated vs. Case Rate, r = -0.317, 97.5% confidence.

% Boosted vs. Case Rate, r = -0.358, 98.9% confidence.

% Fully Vaccinated vs. Death Rate, r = -0.507, 99.99% confidence.

% Boosted vs. Death Rate, r = -0.567, >99.99% confidence.

I also did some ordinary least squares regression (OLS) analysis. That is not ideal because the dependent variable in each case is rate data. Poisson regression would be more appropriate. But I do not have the software for that and I could not find an on line Poisson regression calculator. Also, I think the practical reality is that the results of OLS regression should be similar to those of Poisson regression in this circumstance. See https://timeseriesreasoning.com/content ... data-sets/. I tested residuals of each regression I did for evidence of departure from normal distribution of residuals using Shaprio Wilk at 90% confidence.

I used various regressions to do point estimates of decline in death rate, on average, for each percentage point increase in vaccination rate. This is what I got:

1357 decline in Case Rate and 45 decline in Death Rate for each percentage point increase in %Fully Vaccinated. Note: There is significant departure from normality in distribution of residuals for regression involving Case Rate but not for regression involving Death Rate.

1701 decline in Case Rate and 56 decline in Death Rate for each percentage point increase in % Boosted. Note: There is significant departure from normality in distribution of residuals for regression involving Case Rate but not for regression involving Death Rate.

I also looked at the effects of State by State % population >65 years old using data at https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us- ... he-oldest/ and State by State population densities (persons per square mile) using data at https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... -densities . These are the Case and Death rate models I ended up selecting as best (given the way I did things):

Case Rate = 421711 – (228844 x %Fully Vaccinated) + (57 x Population Density)

Death Rate = 3371 – (8138 x %Boosted + (11647 x %Population >65) +
(1.35 x Population Density)

Using those, the point estimate for the decline in Case Rate for each percentage point increase in % Fully Vaccinated when Population Density is held constant is 2,288 and the decline in Death Rate for each percentage point increase in % Boosted when % Population > 65 and Population Density are held constant is 81. Distributions of residuals for those two models do not significantly depart from normality.

Additional thoughts:

As one would expect, % Fully Vaccinated and % Boosted are highly correlated (r = 0.905).

The analyses are about association and cannot be used to infer cause and effect. Other factors could be involved. For example: States with higher percentages of persons being Fully Vaccinated and Boosted may tend to also have higher percentages of persons engaging in other behaviors, such as masking and social distancing, that reduce risk.

Nevertheless, the associations are consistent with the belief that vaccination does reduce the adverse impacts. Using the point estimate for the single independent variable % Boosted regression to roughly approximate by applying it to the population of the United States, one would expect a 10% positive change in Boosted rate to be associated with 187,632 fewer deaths. That is 18% of the total US COVID-19 deaths so far.

And recall that a lot of those total deaths occurred before vaccinations were available and especially before people began to get boosters.

I did a couple of logistic regression models including the same independent variables as those in the two multiple regression models listed above. I coded Case and Death Rates greater than the median of each as 1 and those below the median as 0. The logistic regression models are consistent with the OLS models in terms of all independent variables being significant at >95% confidence, the order in terms of the significance levels of independent variable coefficients relative to each other, and the +/- signs of the coefficients.
1) What was your definition for vaccinated?
2) How did you compensate for the placing of everyone into the unvaccinated category until a person has 2 shots + 14 days.
3) Is this BA4/5 data?
4) What is your definition of boosted?
5) How did you resolve the known issue of those admitted to hospital being listed as unvaccinated, due to default, unless their vaccination status is within the Emergency Medical Records interface?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 4:38 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:26 am This is a REALLY long post but I had fun doing the statistics. The end of the story is that you can "do your own research" by looking directly at data available on line to generate results consistent with the belief that there have been a lot fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States than there would have been without vaccinations. If it's not out there already I would love to see somebody who likes to publish things take a look at this using something like Poisson regression. States with higher vaccination rates have generally had lower cumulative case and death rates. And it's not unreasonable to think that vaccination has prevented hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 deaths.

There is a “statistically significant” association such that States with higher vaccination rates tend to have lower cumulative COVID-19 case and death rates. I say that based on looking at the State by State fully vaccinated rates and boosted rates as of August 3, 2022 indicated at https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... ter%20dose. and the State by State by State case and death rates as of August 10, 2022 indicated at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/.

Here are some Pearson correlation coefficients (r) for associations (n = 50 in each case):

% Fully Vaccinated vs. Case Rate, r = -0.317, 97.5% confidence.

% Boosted vs. Case Rate, r = -0.358, 98.9% confidence.

% Fully Vaccinated vs. Death Rate, r = -0.507, 99.99% confidence.

% Boosted vs. Death Rate, r = -0.567, >99.99% confidence.

I also did some ordinary least squares regression (OLS) analysis. That is not ideal because the dependent variable in each case is rate data. Poisson regression would be more appropriate. But I do not have the software for that and I could not find an on line Poisson regression calculator. Also, I think the practical reality is that the results of OLS regression should be similar to those of Poisson regression in this circumstance. See https://timeseriesreasoning.com/content ... data-sets/. I tested residuals of each regression I did for evidence of departure from normal distribution of residuals using Shaprio Wilk at 90% confidence.

I used various regressions to do point estimates of decline in death rate, on average, for each percentage point increase in vaccination rate. This is what I got:

1357 decline in Case Rate and 45 decline in Death Rate for each percentage point increase in %Fully Vaccinated. Note: There is significant departure from normality in distribution of residuals for regression involving Case Rate but not for regression involving Death Rate.

1701 decline in Case Rate and 56 decline in Death Rate for each percentage point increase in % Boosted. Note: There is significant departure from normality in distribution of residuals for regression involving Case Rate but not for regression involving Death Rate.

I also looked at the effects of State by State % population >65 years old using data at https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us- ... he-oldest/ and State by State population densities (persons per square mile) using data at https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... -densities . These are the Case and Death rate models I ended up selecting as best (given the way I did things):

Case Rate = 421711 – (228844 x %Fully Vaccinated) + (57 x Population Density)

Death Rate = 3371 – (8138 x %Boosted + (11647 x %Population >65) +
(1.35 x Population Density)

Using those, the point estimate for the decline in Case Rate for each percentage point increase in % Fully Vaccinated when Population Density is held constant is 2,288 and the decline in Death Rate for each percentage point increase in % Boosted when % Population > 65 and Population Density are held constant is 81. Distributions of residuals for those two models do not significantly depart from normality.

Additional thoughts:

As one would expect, % Fully Vaccinated and % Boosted are highly correlated (r = 0.905).

The analyses are about association and cannot be used to infer cause and effect. Other factors could be involved. For example: States with higher percentages of persons being Fully Vaccinated and Boosted may tend to also have higher percentages of persons engaging in other behaviors, such as masking and social distancing, that reduce risk.

Nevertheless, the associations are consistent with the belief that vaccination does reduce the adverse impacts. Using the point estimate for the single independent variable % Boosted regression to roughly approximate by applying it to the population of the United States, one would expect a 10% positive change in Boosted rate to be associated with 187,632 fewer deaths. That is 18% of the total US COVID-19 deaths so far.

And recall that a lot of those total deaths occurred before vaccinations were available and especially before people began to get boosters.

I did a couple of logistic regression models including the same independent variables as those in the two multiple regression models listed above. I coded Case and Death Rates greater than the median of each as 1 and those below the median as 0. The logistic regression models are consistent with the OLS models in terms of all independent variables being significant at >95% confidence, the order in terms of the significance levels of independent variable coefficients relative to each other, and the +/- signs of the coefficients.
1) What was your definition for vaccinated?
2) How did you compensate for the placing of everyone into the unvaccinated category until a person has 2 shots + 14 days.
3) Is this BA4/5 data?
4) What is your definition of boosted?
5) How did you resolve the known issue of those admitted to hospital being listed as unvaccinated, due to default, unless their vaccination status is within the Emergency Medical Records interface?
I just went with the data at https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... ter%20dose.

I assume that "fully vaccinated" means people either got two mRNA vaccine shots or one dose of J&J. I assume "boosted" means that they got at least one additional dose beyond that.

I think you are really reaching with #5. But give me a link to something where somebody is claiming that has a significant impact on the numbers.

In any case, all I did was look at overall vaccination rates in States vs. overall case and death rates. I don't see how what you're talking about with #5 impacts that. It has nothing to do with how people are tracked in hospitals. It's numbers of vaccinations in a given State and number of cases and deaths in a given State.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 5:10 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 4:38 pm

1) What was your definition for vaccinated?
2) How did you compensate for the placing of everyone into the unvaccinated category until a person has 2 shots + 14 days.
3) Is this BA4/5 data?
4) What is your definition of boosted?
5) How did you resolve the known issue of those admitted to hospital being listed as unvaccinated, due to default, unless their vaccination status is within the Emergency Medical Records interface?
I just went with the data at https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... ter%20dose.

I assume that "fully vaccinated" means people either got two mRNA vaccine shots or one dose of J&J. I assume "boosted" means that they got at least one additional dose beyond that.

I think you are really reaching with #5. But give me a link to something where somebody is claiming that has a significant impact on the numbers.

In any case, all I did was look at overall vaccination rates in States vs. overall case and death rates. I don't see how what you're talking about with #5 impacts that. It has nothing to do with how people are tracked in hospitals. It's numbers of vaccinations in a given State and number of cases and deaths in a given State.
So you have no idea who was thrown into the unvaccinated crowd. Awesome.

In regards to unvaccinated status at the hospital, If the patient's doctor's office information system doesn't have access to the hospital information system, vaccination status cannot be confirmed. Listed as unvaccinated. This vastly overinflates the unvaccinated as being the ones who were hospitalized.

When I worked clinical lab sales, only the largest clients had interfaces and a smaller amount had EPIC information systems, the #1 system.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:56 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 5:10 pm

I just went with the data at https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... ter%20dose.

I assume that "fully vaccinated" means people either got two mRNA vaccine shots or one dose of J&J. I assume "boosted" means that they got at least one additional dose beyond that.

I think you are really reaching with #5. But give me a link to something where somebody is claiming that has a significant impact on the numbers.

In any case, all I did was look at overall vaccination rates in States vs. overall case and death rates. I don't see how what you're talking about with #5 impacts that. It has nothing to do with how people are tracked in hospitals. It's numbers of vaccinations in a given State and number of cases and deaths in a given State.
So you have no idea who was thrown into the unvaccinated crowd. Awesome.

In regards to unvaccinated status at the hospital, If the patient's doctor's office information system doesn't have access to the hospital information system, vaccination status cannot be confirmed. Listed as unvaccinated. This vastly overinflates the unvaccinated as being the ones who were hospitalized.

When I worked clinical lab sales, only the largest clients had interfaces and a smaller amount had EPIC information systems, the #1 system.
Such a problem would have no impact on statistics on overall State by State vaccination rates or State by State overall COVID-19 death rates.

i doubt if it has much impact on relative risk of COVID-19 hospitalization either. But send me a link that you think makes the case that it does. i strongly suspect that you got the idea from a questionable source that is exaggerating the issue. But i can't be sure about that until you give me a link.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:56 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 5:10 pm

I just went with the data at https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... ter%20dose.

I assume that "fully vaccinated" means people either got two mRNA vaccine shots or one dose of J&J. I assume "boosted" means that they got at least one additional dose beyond that.

I think you are really reaching with #5. But give me a link to something where somebody is claiming that has a significant impact on the numbers.

In any case, all I did was look at overall vaccination rates in States vs. overall case and death rates. I don't see how what you're talking about with #5 impacts that. It has nothing to do with how people are tracked in hospitals. It's numbers of vaccinations in a given State and number of cases and deaths in a given State.
So you have no idea who was thrown into the unvaccinated crowd. Awesome.

In regards to unvaccinated status at the hospital, If the patient's doctor's office information system doesn't have access to the hospital information system, vaccination status cannot be confirmed. Listed as unvaccinated. This vastly overinflates the unvaccinated as being the ones who were hospitalized.

When I worked clinical lab sales, only the largest clients had interfaces and a smaller amount had EPIC information systems, the #1 system.
BTW, this is anecdotal but i have no reason to believe the practice of the hospital involved is unique. My wife and i both went to the emergency room at a hospital in Baton Rouge this past December and my wife was admitted to the hospital. Both of us were asked for our vaccination status and both of us said we were fully vaccinated and boosted. The information was recorded. i seriously doubt that we went into the system as unvaccinated or would have because our status as we reported it could not be confirmed through an automated system.

Of course i also doubt that the systems aren't linked. i would like for you to provide a link so that i can see the claims about how much of a problem it is. i want to see if there is evidence that it really "vastly overinlfates the unvaccinated as being the ones who were hospitalized."

I also seriously doubt that, to the extent that it is a source of error. the people at places like CDC and State epidemiology agencies as well as in academia who are making the estimates are unaware of it and would not adjust for it it if is indeed a significant source of error.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 5:49 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:56 pm

So you have no idea who was thrown into the unvaccinated crowd. Awesome.

In regards to unvaccinated status at the hospital, If the patient's doctor's office information system doesn't have access to the hospital information system, vaccination status cannot be confirmed. Listed as unvaccinated. This vastly overinflates the unvaccinated as being the ones who were hospitalized.

When I worked clinical lab sales, only the largest clients had interfaces and a smaller amount had EPIC information systems, the #1 system.
Such a problem would have no impact on statistics on overall State by State vaccination rates or State by State overall COVID-19 death rates.

i doubt if it has much impact on relative risk of COVID-19 hospitalization either. But send me a link that you think makes the case that it does. i strongly suspect that you got the idea from a questionable source that is exaggerating the issue. But i can't be sure about that until you give me a link.
It would be a huge problem if those who died, were considered unvaccinated, which we have seen throughout this pandemic.

The below screenshot was taken from the official Alberta Covid website. They were listed as unvaccinated because they weren't two shots + 14 days out. Look at the death rate, so close to first vaccination. After this was brought to the attention of the public, they mysteriously stopped showing this chart.

Your data is unreliable and you still haven't answered the question of if you have any college level courses in either Virology or Immunology and Serology?

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by GannonFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:41 am
GannonFan wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:20 am Family finally got COVID last week. Youngest came home from Boy Scout camp and caught it there (which is odd, the camp was basically outdoors in the woods, not really any inside time). Just had some mild generic symptoms and we were set to start our vacation week down the shore so we didn't test right away (have only sparingly tested the kids during this pandemic, can't test for every cold/allergy symptom when they pop up). Got down there Saturday, by Monday the wife wasn't feeling great. Tested her and the kid and both were positive. Took the wife home to isolate and stayed with the kids at the beach house (already paid up for the week). By Thursday I was having symptoms. All went home on Friday. I started the Paxvolid then and my wife had been on it for 3 days. Didn't care for it at all. Mouth tasted all metalic and had nausea so I stopped after just one of ten doses and my wife stopped I guess after 6 or 7. Didn't take all that long to feel better, and back into work by Wednesday (work has a strict rule of isolation from day 0 - day you test - to day 5. Strange, work only recommends wearing a mask when coming back, I'm wearing one just "out of an abundance of caution" :) ). Everyone in the family is vaccinated and fully boosted.

Definitely, at this point, I don't see much value in the current vaccine. If we still have any mandates on it I think we're being incredibly naive. Just doesn't do much against the current virus. We have the Paxvolid for the unvaccinated if they want it (my doctor had told me for the vaccinated and the under 70 crowd, it didn't make much sense to take it - just as much chance to have a negative side effect from it as to benefit from it - I felt that with the nausea and just stopped taking it immediately). The vaccine served it's purpose and I don't regret getting it or boosted, but heck, I was boosted in early November so that was ages ago.

Not sure why we don't have a better vaccine out there for the Omicron variant. We've known about it for a good 8-9 months now. Unless we all hide in our homes then there's certainly a decent chance to get it. And given that it's not very impactful (hospitalization and/or death wise) this seems to be trending towards the flu kind of protocol - get a shot or nasal spray once a year (twice if we think we need to be that reactive) that targets the version of the virus that's actually out there and move on. My dad's over 80 and I know he got another booster (his second booster) in June and even he thought what is the purpose of a booster for a version of the virus that isn't circulating any more. No more boosters for me until they come up with something that's relevant.
I think a booster that is more effective against Omicron will be probably be available this fall. The current vaccines do reduce the risk of being a case and more so of becoming seriously ill is you stay up to date with vaccine recommendations (which means being fully vaccinated and boosted...which only 32% of the population has done). I can provide some literature on that if somebody doubts it. But I'm not going to do that now because I have stuff to do to day and already spent a bunch of time doing the analyses and writing up the stuff you see in the last post.

It's still not like the seasonal flu. It's not as bad as it was but the average daily death rate for the United States over the week ending yesterday is 315.7 (to the nearest 10th). That average rate over a year would mean 115,235 deaths.

At https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html you can see that the highest estimated number of deaths for any of the flu seasons ending with 2019 - 2020 is 52,000. Even if you look at the upper limit of 95% confidence for the estimate, that's 95,500.

We have had and are having a lot fewer cases and especially deaths than we would be having without vaccinations in spite of the fact that public health officials are trying to herd cats devoted to misinformation and therefore can't get the "up to date" vaccination rate up to anything close to the level we really need. And I think public health officials are just becoming resigned to the fact that they can't fix stupid.
Eh, at this point, I think the reduction in serious illness or death, as compared to say a year ago, is more a factor of a less virulent form of the virus, rather than some protection people are getting from prior vaccination. Again, I'm not demeaning the vaccine, and if I had to do it all over again and go back in time I would still do the full vaccination and booster. But again, that was for the virus that was out there at the time. It's not really out there as much anymore. The virus that's out there now is the one we don't have a vaccine for at the moment (although as the UK showed today when they approved the Moderna version of the one targeting Omicron we're almost there). If I was unvaccinated right now, I would have significant reservations of getting a vaccine that was targeted for the older form of the virus - there's almost no benefit at this point. I'd wait a month until the vaccine comes out that's applicable to the virus that's out there.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:15 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 5:49 pm

Such a problem would have no impact on statistics on overall State by State vaccination rates or State by State overall COVID-19 death rates.

i doubt if it has much impact on relative risk of COVID-19 hospitalization either. But send me a link that you think makes the case that it does. i strongly suspect that you got the idea from a questionable source that is exaggerating the issue. But i can't be sure about that until you give me a link.
It would be a huge problem if those who died, were considered unvaccinated, which we have seen throughout this pandemic.

The below screenshot was taken from the official Alberta Covid website. They were listed as unvaccinated because they weren't two shots + 14 days out. Look at the death rate, so close to first vaccination. After this was brought to the attention of the public, they mysteriously stopped showing this chart.

Your data is unreliable and you still haven't answered the question of if you have any college level courses in either Virology or Immunology and Serology?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

Granted it's only one county, but that sure doesn't look like the vax + booster is helping.

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