JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:34 pm
Now for why I came here: I am concerned that the CDC changed its recommendations on wearing masks due to political pressure rather than science. I've seen talking heads who had been pressing for this say the reason is that the information has changed. Specifically, they say we now know there can be asymptomatic infections that can spread the disease and that we now know the disease can be transmitted via aerosols.
But I have been following those things. It was known that asymptomatic infections could transmit since at least as early as February and it has been known that it could be transmitted in aerosols since at least as early as early March. This is not something that happened because the CDC suddenly got information that those things could happen. They already knew that. And they were already operating under the assumptions that the disease could be transmitted by asymptomatic infections as well as via aerosols.
My belief is that the CDC took the position it was taking because it judged that whatever would be gained by telling everyone to wear masks would be outweighed by what we be lost through behavioral changes.
This morning I went to a grocery store while wearing a home made mask for the first time. One thing I noticed immediately is that my glasses would fog when I exhaled. That means the mask was not containing the aerosols I was exhaling, I'm sure it was stopping some of it. But definitely not all.
That mask was made by my wife. She sewed it during an effort to provide home made masks to health care providers. I had another errand to run and she made me one created according to the Surgeon General's instructions. Again, my glasses fogged every time I exhaled. It was not containing aerosols.
This kind of thing, where you have public pressure to change a public health posture, always worries me. I have seen a number of instances before where I had direct knowledge of what was going on and things were done just because, regardless of what the data said, it became clear that pandering to public perception was necessary.
I do hope this is not one of those cases. But I suspect that it is.
Dr tried to explain that the virus was originally thought to be airbourne thru coughing and sneezing. It's been found that the virus is lighter than previously thought. This means it can become airbourne from talking. When it becomes airbourne, it drops towards the ground in the first few feet. This is why the mask are suggested and the 6 foot rule.
Would be good to be 7 ft tall now...
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:34 am
by Skjellyfetti
AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:58 am
THE GROWTH RATE IS NOT EXPONENTIAL!!!!!! FFS, I wish people would stop saying that.
Yes it is. I showed it in the other thread and pretty sure convinced 89.
What gets me is that we have about half the population that approves of the job Trump's been doing on this. I mean come ON. How obvious could it be that he's screwed up? We have stuff like him saying on February 26, "When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."
How obvious could it be, at THIS point, that he didn't get it?'
I guess it's fair to understand that most people don't follow things closely enough to know that he should have known his partial travel ban would not have much of an effect. But, I mean, we now have by far the most cases in the world. We are currently third in deaths and are rapidly overtaking the two countries (Italy and Spain) ahead of us. How could ANYONE think Trump has been doing a good job with this?
Again: Especially because it is so clear from his own statements over time that he completely under estimated the threat and got caught with his pants down.
It really is like a cult.
It really is....but it goes beyond that. Trump cultists are much like him....they don't want to be told what to do....by anyone. If you know more than them you are considered an "elitist" (even if your facts are backed by scientific data). Ands science.....they HATE science. They can't function completely in their alternate reality when scientific fact gets in the way. Yes, Trump is like a yuge swath of America.....with a bigger checkbook and the pulpit of the Presidency.
I really am struggling to figure out what our future is though......we can't function day to week to month to year like we currently are. Maybe this will magically get better when Trump leaves office and/or dies.....but I doubt it. I know that the dissolution of our country into smaller separate entities might be impossible......but these days....never say never. . It would seem that both RED and BLUE states and citizens have called for secession over the past decade. We better figure this out though.....I feel like th pot is reaching the boiling point.
mainejeff wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:54 am
People need to stop criticizing Trump & Pence. They are our President & Vice President! I'm glad that President Trump put Vice President Pence in charge of the Corona Virus. He is not only a smart level headed person.....but he has a close personal relationship with God. Maybe he can pray the virus away.
mainejeff wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:11 am
He really is. I want President Trump for 4 more years, but this could bring him down. I hope that I am wrong!
mainejeff wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:40 pm
Can't believe that the libtards have destroyed the stock market.
They'll do anything to bring down President Trump.
AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:58 am
THE GROWTH RATE IS NOT EXPONENTIAL!!!!!! FFS, I wish people would stop saying that.
Yes it is. I showed it in the other thread and pretty sure convinced 89.
No it’s not. But thanks for playing.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:57 am
by ∞∞∞
The growth is logarithmic.
But this entire argument is dumb.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:01 pm
by BDKJMU
From what I've heard homemade masks are good in that they could cut down on asymptomatic from spreading, apparently a big problem now. On the other hand, for the healthy, limited effectiveness in preventing from catching.
Homemade masks are bad in that they:
-Could provide a false sense of security (Dr Birx mentioned this few days ago- lax on staying home more, hand washing, touching face, physical distancing.
-Cause people to touch their faces even more, without cleaned fingers, fiddling with their masks. At least some docs think more cases are contracted by hands to face, as opposed to airborne.
-Cause the population to use masks that could go to health providers (even though they stressed don't use N95 or surgical).
CDC thinks good outweighs the bad, but doesn't appear to be overwhelming.
It was known that it was likely to be carried in aerosols well before this change. I do not think decision to reverse course and recommend mask wearing was due to new information in that regard.
I doubt that it changes the risk picture much either way. But I have been on the inside of responding to potential human health concerns associated with big news events like the Deepwater Horizon incident and Hurricane Katrina and I have seen agencies have to do things because of public perception and pressure rather than on the basis of what historical information and current data indicate. I don't like that when i see it and I suspect I just saw that with this CDC change in its position on masks. Especially since they are saying to wear home made masks.
Again: They knew in late February that it could be transmitted by asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infected persons and they've known that it MAY be transmitted via aerosols since at least as early as early March. I emphasize MAY because they still don't really know:
If it IS transmitted via aerosols they are now telling people to wear home made masks such that a lot of the aerosols they exhale are just going to shoot out through the edges of those masks and hang in the air for other people to walk through. I'm talking about indoors such as in a supermarket. Meanwhile, no matter how much they say a home made mask won't protect you, there are going to be plenty of people who think that it does. Those people may to some extent be "social distancing" because they are worried about GETTING the virus. But, while it's not what they are worried about, the effect would be to have them also protecting others if they happen to be, say, asymptomatic infections. Changing to recommending wearing a home made mask could make them think they are at least somewhat protected and change their behavior. And I think that is what CDC has been worried about.
After having worn two different home made masks yesterday I also think it is likely that people are going to touch the edges of it, the edges that have been exposed to the aerosols shooting out, because they're going to feel like they need to adjust the position. Then they're going to touch things in the store.
What's the conspiracy? Maybe they feel comfortable that enough medical grade masks are on the way for the professionals so they are now recommending voluntary mask wearing. They know a lot of people will get their hands on medical grade masks. I just got back from the grocery store 15 minutes ago. I saw at least 10 people wearing masks. All but one was medical grade (none were N95 though).
Hitting grocery store for the 1st time in 2 weeks tomorrow, I was debating on wearing a neck gaiter, or 1 of a handful of surgical masks. Not wearing my 1 old/expired N95 mask. Would probably get a lot of dirty looks.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:11 pm
by JohnStOnge
Could've put his in the other sports thread but just as well fits here. A legend succumbs:
BDKJMU wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:10 pm
Hitting grocery store for the 1st time in 2 weeks tomorrow, I was debating on wearing a neck gaiter, or 1 of a handful of surgical masks. Not wearing my 1 old/expired N95 mask. Would probably get a lot of dirty looks.
AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:58 am
THE GROWTH RATE IS NOT EXPONENTIAL!!!!!! FFS, I wish people would stop saying that.
You could probably derive an exponential function that fits the curve pretty well. It's definitely not linear.
You've given me something to do now.
Yes, part of a logarithmic function is typically a section of exponential growth, so it's not completely wrong to say it grows exponentially.
So while technically logarithmic, most people understand exponents better and it makes sense to explain the urgency that way.
edit: I'm wrong. I'm confusing logarithmic scale and logarithmic growth. To explain the growth, putting it in a logarithmic scale makes more sense than putting it in a linear scale. But linear scale certainly makes urgency clearer to people, and that's ok with me.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:47 pm
by JohnStOnge
Ok. Just for fun I kind of played around a little while with different exponential functions. Here is what the current "active cases" COVID 19 growth rate looks like as I type:
Here is what it looks like when you start at 2 then do an exponential increase whereby each day you raise the amount from the pervious day to the 1.015th power for 100 days:
Not a perfect match but similar. And one could keep messing with the power to make the shapes get closer and closer. Like you could try making the daily exponential increase th 1.016th and 1.014th. You could keep getting more precise by adding more digits the right of the decimal point.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:54 pm
by CAA Flagship
Why the hell did you use "cases". It's flawed info as a factor of time.
We have been through this 1000 times.
Use deaths. It's more accurate.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:07 pm
by Gil Dobie
CAA Flagship wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:54 pm
Why the hell did you use "cases". It's flawed info as a factor of time.
We have been through this 1000 times.
Use deaths. It's more accurate.
Mr redundant is why. Even people with COVID 19 are not tested.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:16 pm
by JohnStOnge
Now an exponential function of the form y = a raised to the xth power where a = 1.045:
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:18 pm
by kalm
CAA Flagship wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:54 pm
Why the hell did you use "cases". It's flawed info as a factor of time.
We have been through this 1000 times.
Use deaths. It's more accurate.
Agree to an extent, but both are also tied to mitigation/suppression and population density strategies.
It's pretty easy to lose your command on an aircraft carrier. I did two floats on an aircraft carrier for helicopters and both times the CO was relieved. One for running aground on a reef (he was asleep when it happened) and I don't know what the second one did.
Funny story, the one that hit the reef sent all the aircraft in the air then ordered all the Marines aboard to the flight deck. Then made them run from one side to the other in an attempt to rock the ship off the reef. The tide rising was the solution.
They are a capitol ships and very much in the spotlight. One has to do everything perfectly to advance.
I feel a little bad for the guy. He made a big mistake, was rightfully removed. From what I read yesterday, was facing further discipline. He's a 50 yr old Naval Academy grad, so probably served 28 years mas or menos. Hopefully he'll recover from the Chinese Virus and be allowed to retire with current rank & bennies.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:59 pm
by Gil Dobie
JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:16 pm
Now an exponential function of the form y = a raised to the xth power where a = 1.045:
So what do the axis represent?
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:01 pm
by Gil Dobie
Boris Johnson admitted to hospital after 10 days of Cornona.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:13 pm
by dbackjon
Gil Dobie wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:01 pm
Boris Johnson admitted to hospital after 10 days of Cornona.
Best wishes.
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:38 pm
by Skjellyfetti
CAA Flagship wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:54 pm
Why the hell did you use "cases". It's flawed info as a factor of time.
We have been through this 1000 times.
Use deaths. It's more accurate.
Here's a regression I did for deaths a week or two ago in the Locker Room thread.
Its r^2 was 0.99 for an exponential curve... which is extremely good.
I can update the numbers Thursday when I go back to work. But, from eyeballing it... it's clearly still exponential and the deaths followed this curve fairly predictibly
I prefaced all my other posts in that thread that it won't continue to be exponential forever and, hopefully it stops sooner, rather than later. It will end up looking more logarithmic as Trip said. This general shape:
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:10 pm
by ALPHAGRIZ1
Why is the line blue?
Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:12 pm
by SDHornet
CAA Flagship wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:54 pm
Why the hell did you use "cases". It's flawed info as a factor of time.
We have been through this 1000 times.
Use deaths. It's more accurate.
This.
Case count is useless, especially since the US is crushing testing compared to the Euro countries now. US up 1.75M to Germany at 0.91M, Russia and Italy are at 0.69M.
Also was hoping the "serious cases" count would return as I found that valuable second only to death count. But alas, no such luck.
They can't function completely in their alternate reality when scientific fact gets in the way. 
Yes, Trump is like a yuge swath of America.....with a bigger checkbook and the pulpit of the Presidency.
Maybe this will magically get better when Trump leaves office and/or dies.....but I doubt it. I know that the dissolution of our country into smaller separate entities might be impossible......but these days....never say never. 
. It would seem that both RED and BLUE states and citizens have called for secession over the past decade. We better figure this out though.....I feel like th pot is reaching the boiling point. 
The tide rising was the solution.
