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Who will win Iowa?

Also, post your top 3 finishers.

I say Biden wins with the top 3 being:
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Mayor Pete

What, no pee in the butt?

Bernie
Biden
Butt

No homo

Ivytalk wrote:What, no pee in the butt?

Bernie
Biden
Butt

No homo

Didn't I put Elizabeth Warren in there....?

The winner will be Trump.

CAA Flagship wrote:The winner will be Trump.

No kidding.

Two old white males and a young Butt

Bernie
Biden
Buttigieg

I’ve heard several times now that Bernie’s organizational game is strong which helps in a state like Iowa. It sounds even stronger in Cali. His biggest threat comes from the DNC but similar to Trump he seems to take the shots well so far and move up in the polls. The Dem convention could be a real shit show.

Bernie
Biden
Fauxcahontas

The Dem caucus rules are not very democratic and can skew the vote which makes it hard to predict. First it is not a secret ballot. Everybody "goes to their corner" for their candidate. This can lead to peer pressure issues. Then your candidate has to be "viable" by having enough people voting for the candidate to earn a delegate. If your candidate is not viable you can then move to your second choice. A lot of lobbying and peer pressure at this point. Two non-viable candidates might band together to get at least one of them to be viable. This 2nd chance voting will likely help Biden the most. Klobuchar voters will likely go to Biden. Same with Buttigeg voters if he is not viable in a precinct. Bernie will benefit from this some as well, likely some Yang and Gabbard. The 2nd chance voting will lift Biden up. If it was like the Rep. caucus with one person one vote Pedo Joe would be 4th or 5th.

Warren has a pretty good ground game going which will help her. I even had someone contact me personally. I think Bernie has a good ground game in certain areas. That helps but delegates are awarded by precinct, not total vote so he'll win the college towns and other metro areas but will likely get smoked in the rural areas.

Yang might be the surprise of the night. I think his problem will be viability in many caucus locations.

I still have to decide if I want to switch party registration and go tonight just to watch the shitshow and to stir the pot by voting for Bernie.

HI54UNI wrote:
Everybody "goes to their corner" for their candidate. This can lead to peer pressure issues. Then your candidate has to be "viable" by having enough people voting for the candidate to earn a delegate. If your candidate is not viable you can then move to your second choice. A lot of lobbying and peer pressure at this point. Two non-viable candidates might band together to get at least one of them to be viable. This 2nd chance voting will likely help Biden the most. Klobuchar voters will likely go to Biden. Same with Buttigeg voters if he is not viable in a precinct. Bernie will benefit from this some as well, likely some Yang and Gabbard. The 2nd chance voting will lift Biden up. If it was like the Rep. caucus with one person one vote Pedo Joe would be 4th or 5th.

This sounds like a game played in kindergarten. Are these voters 6?

Bernie
Biden
Butt

Trump wins IA in November

HI54UNI wrote:Bernie
Biden
Fauxcahontas

The Dem caucus rules are not very democratic and can skew the vote which makes it hard to predict. First it is not a secret ballot. Everybody "goes to their corner" for their candidate. This can lead to peer pressure issues. Then your candidate has to be "viable" by having enough people voting for the candidate to earn a delegate. If your candidate is not viable you can then move to your second choice. A lot of lobbying and peer pressure at this point. Two non-viable candidates might band together to get at least one of them to be viable. This 2nd chance voting will likely help Biden the most. Klobuchar voters will likely go to Biden. Same with Buttigeg voters if he is not viable in a precinct. Bernie will benefit from this some as well, likely some Yang and Gabbard. The 2nd chance voting will lift Biden up. If it was like the Rep. caucus with one person one vote Pedo Joe would be 4th or 5th.

Warren has a pretty good ground game going which will help her. I even had someone contact me personally. I think Bernie has a good ground game in certain areas. That helps but delegates are awarded by precinct, not total vote so he'll win the college towns and other metro areas but will likely get smoked in the rural areas.

Yang might be the surprise of the night. I think his problem will be viability in many caucus locations.

I still have to decide if I want to switch party registration and go tonight just to watch the shitshow and to stir the pot by voting for Bernie.

Do you guys look at your boots and kick the dirt while you’re working this all out?

(Thanks for the refresher)

Biden I think will win.

Top three are Biden, Bernie, and Pete.

Should be Sanders, probably will be Biden. Because DNC.

AZGrizFan wrote:

HI54UNI wrote:
Everybody "goes to their corner" for their candidate. This can lead to peer pressure issues. Then your candidate has to be "viable" by having enough people voting for the candidate to earn a delegate. If your candidate is not viable you can then move to your second choice. A lot of lobbying and peer pressure at this point. Two non-viable candidates might band together to get at least one of them to be viable. This 2nd chance voting will likely help Biden the most. Klobuchar voters will likely go to Biden. Same with Buttigeg voters if he is not viable in a precinct. Bernie will benefit from this some as well, likely some Yang and Gabbard. The 2nd chance voting will lift Biden up. If it was like the Rep. caucus with one person one vote Pedo Joe would be 4th or 5th.

This sounds like a game played in kindergarten. Are these voters 6?

Sounds like something Trip would want implemented nation-wide.

∞∞∞ wrote:Should be Sanders, probably will be Biden. Because DNC.

Agree, DNC and corporate dems are in panic mode of this Bernie surge. I want Bernie to ride this wave as far as it will take him because the DNC outcry will be epic.

AZGrizFan wrote:

HI54UNI wrote:
Everybody "goes to their corner" for their candidate. This can lead to peer pressure issues. Then your candidate has to be "viable" by having enough people voting for the candidate to earn a delegate. If your candidate is not viable you can then move to your second choice. A lot of lobbying and peer pressure at this point. Two non-viable candidates might band together to get at least one of them to be viable. This 2nd chance voting will likely help Biden the most. Klobuchar voters will likely go to Biden. Same with Buttigeg voters if he is not viable in a precinct. Bernie will benefit from this some as well, likely some Yang and Gabbard. The 2nd chance voting will lift Biden up. If it was like the Rep. caucus with one person one vote Pedo Joe would be 4th or 5th.

This sounds like a game played in kindergarten. Are these voters 6?

Well they are Democrats......

Steyer is getting some support in the polls but I'm not sure how real it is. Where will his supporters go if he's not viable in a precinct? My guess would be Biden but I don't know.

Saw an ad last night by some Dem PAC telling people not to vote for Bernie because he can't win the general. Biden's been pushing the "I'm the only one that can beat Trump" a lot in his ads. With the TDS many Dems have that does resonate with some.

^Which is unfortunate because people should vote who they're most excited about.

The electability trap is a real (and dangerous) thing.

∞∞∞ wrote:Should be Sanders, probably will be Biden. Because DNC.

Will Bernie game the system to his advantage?

Rivals warn Sanders campaign plans to game Iowa results

A claim of victory after the first vote could encourage supporters of weaker candidates to leave the caucuses early without realigning with another candidate. Or it could create an artificial bandwagon effect by encouraging some caucus-goers to jump to Sanders’ side under the belief that he will be the victor.

Either scenario stands to hurt the campaigns that are more reliant than Sanders on the realignment round that happens after the first preference vote is cast. During realignment, supporters of candidates who failed to hit a 15 percent threshold in the first vote are freed up to switch to another candidate.

Doesn't sound very democratic to me.

Any truth to this reporting Fiver?

UNI88 wrote:Doesn't sound very democratic to me.

Any truth to this reporting Fiver?

If Iowa DNC is going to have open rounds, I don't see how it's undemocratic to say "I won the first round" after you win the first round.

Isn't the whole point to convince other voters to join your side as each round proceeds?

edit: I do think this whole thing is stupid though; Iowa DNC should just do a closed-box ballot.

∞∞∞ wrote:

UNI88 wrote:Doesn't sound very democratic to me.

Any truth to this reporting Fiver?

If Iowa DNC is going to have open rounds, I don't see how it's undemocratic to say "I won the first round" after you win the first round.

Isn't the whole point to convince other voters to join your side as each round proceeds?

edit: I do think this whole thing is stupid though; Iowa DNC should just do a closed-box ballot.

Followed properly, it's very democratic. You go into the caucus and indicate who you support. Supporters of candidates with enough support then try to honestly convince supporters of those without enough support to support their candidate. It happens in the room and it stays in the room until it's finished. It takes time to determine the final results and it bubbles up from each caucus location. Prematurely reporting the results might impact candidate support in other caucus locations and is dishonestly subverting the democratic process. I thought you were all for more democracy but I guess that only applies when your candidate or cause benefits.

Bernie, Biden, Buttpirate

SDHornet wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:
This sounds like a game played in kindergarten. Are these voters 6?

Sounds like something Trip would want implemented nation-wide.

Nah, I'm about closed-ballot voting, with each vote weighted equally.

I'm also for everyone being able to vote, at entry of high-school. Also immigrants, long-term residents, felons and ex-felons, etc. If government has say in your life, you should have say in government.

That's democracy.