China

[BDKJMU]

So, do you think Taiwan has any chance to hold them off? How do you see it playing out?

I think that depends on Miley still being "in-charge"

I’m sure General Benedict is calling his Chicom counterpart saying don’t worry about us, we won’t attack….

[andy7171]

Xi has wedded his political legacy to “reunification”. He says it out loud, and so do the “wolf diplomats” and state media. They are going to cash that check - they have whipped up enough nationalist fervor that it would be a devastating blow to the CCP to NOT make a play.

But ... Biden says he and China's Xi agree to abide by Taiwan agreement

"I've spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree ... we'll abide by the Taiwan agreement," he said. "We made it clear that I don't think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement."

Who's buying this?

Which agreement is he speaking of? The international one, or the one Hunter arranged.

[Winterborn]

That would put it to around March 1st, 2022. Someone should give Taiwan a nuke for one last FU to the CCP & PLA.

FYP

Officially they do not have them, though they did have a program in the past.

[UNI88]

FYP

Officially they do not have them, though they did have a program in the past.

Rumor has it that on January 19, Trump provided Taiwan with an undetermined number of small, mobile nuclear devices. Taiwan has positioned these devices in strategic locations in China to be detonated if the republic is invaded and overthrown.

Note: this is not a disinformation campaign meant to throw the PLA and CCP into a tizzy searching for nukes that don't exist.

[Winterborn]

Officially they do not have them, though they did have a program in the past.

Rumor has it that on January 19, Trump provided Taiwan with an undetermined number of small, mobile nuclear devices. Taiwan has positioned these devices in strategic locations in China to be detonated if the republic is invaded and overthrown.

Note: this is not a disinformation campaign meant to throw the PLA and CCP into a tizzy searching for nukes that don't exist.

Hopefully they were some of our Neutron bombs that were just lying around.

[CID1990]

Xi has wedded his political legacy to “reunification”. He says it out loud, and so do the “wolf diplomats” and state media. They are going to cash that check - they have whipped up enough nationalist fervor that it would be a devastating blow to the CCP to NOT make a play.


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So, do you think Taiwan has any chance to hold them off? How do you see it playing out?

Nope.

I don’t think it will be completely kinetic, either. The PRC will cripple the C&C structure with massive cyber attacks, some targeted assassinations, and they’ll spoof nav gear.

They’ll sabotage infrastructure with military uses - using the hundreds of thousands of agents they already have in the country.

The PLA will be mopping up surrounded Taiwanese units within two weeks of their landings, barring any outside interventions. And those landings will be backed up by a missile defense system that will make intervention a VERY costly affair.

My main worry is whether or not China will decide it is necessary to take some kind of action against us to prevent an intervention, or whether we decide to intervene.

Make no mistakes though - China invading Taiwan would divide the world over time in some very interesting ways.


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[GannonFan]

So, do you think Taiwan has any chance to hold them off? How do you see it playing out?

Nope.

I don’t think it will be completely kinetic, either. The PRC will cripple the C&C structure with massive cyber attacks, some targeted assassinations, and they’ll spoof nav gear.

They’ll sabotage infrastructure with military uses - using the hundreds of thousands of agents they already have in the country.

The PLA will be mopping up surrounded Taiwanese units within two weeks of their landings, barring any outside interventions. And those landings will be backed up by a missile defense system that will make intervention a VERY costly affair.

My main worry is whether or not China will decide it is necessary to take some kind of action against us to prevent an intervention, or whether we decide to intervene.

Make no mistakes though - China invading Taiwan would divide the world over time in some very interesting ways.


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What do you mean by that?

[BDKJMU]

And people think the chip shortage is bad now. One company in Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. – accounts for more than half of the world’s semiconductor chips..

[BDKJMU]

When China invades, how far does the Dow fall? 10%? 20% 30%?

[CID1990]

Nope.

I don’t think it will be completely kinetic, either. The PRC will cripple the C&C structure with massive cyber attacks, some targeted assassinations, and they’ll spoof nav gear.

They’ll sabotage infrastructure with military uses - using the hundreds of thousands of agents they already have in the country.

The PLA will be mopping up surrounded Taiwanese units within two weeks of their landings, barring any outside interventions. And those landings will be backed up by a missile defense system that will make intervention a VERY costly affair.

My main worry is whether or not China will decide it is necessary to take some kind of action against us to prevent an intervention, or whether we decide to intervene.

Make no mistakes though - China invading Taiwan would divide the world over time in some very interesting ways.


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What do you mean by that?

There are several countries that would side with China, and those are already known -

Russia (tentatively)
Iran
N Korea
Venezuela

But then there are other countries that would block or hamper any real consequences for China in an economic sense. And some of those countries would continue with China as their primary trading partner

UAE (other Gulf States would eventually follow suit)
Germany
All of the Stans
most of the former Warsaw Pact, minus Poland and Hungary (maybe)
All of SE Asia
All of the Pacific maritime states
New Zealand

Pretty much our only allies would be Australia, India, Japan (precarious), UK, the Baltic States and Scandinavia, Canada, and a few minor states


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[AZGrizFan]

When China invades, how far does the Dow fall? 10%? 20% 30%?

50%?

[Winterborn]

What do you mean by that?

There are several countries that would side with China, and those are already known -

Russia (tentatively)
Iran
N Korea
Venezuela

But then there are other countries that would block or hamper any real consequences for China in an economic sense. And some of those countries would continue with China as their primary trading partner

UAE (other Gulf States would eventually follow suit)
Germany
All of the Stans
most of the former Warsaw Pact, minus Poland and Hungary (maybe)
All of SE Asia
All of the Pacific maritime states
New Zealand

Pretty much our only allies would be Australia, India, Japan (precarious), UK, the Baltic States and Scandinavia, Canada, and a few minor states


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Depending on the how the energy situation in the EU goes, Germany and the rest are tied at the hip to Russia.

The ones you listed as potential allies are for the most part energy independent. Who controls the flow of energy, controls the country.

[Winterborn]

When China invades, how far does the Dow fall? 10%? 20% 30%?

50%?

We will be luck to only have to worry about how far the DOW falls.

[SDHornet]

When China invades, how far does the Dow fall? 10%? 20% 30%?

50%?

Major buying opportunity when that happens.

[Ivytalk]

50%?

We will be luck to only have to worry about how far the DOW falls.

Time to head for the fallout shelters. Or Northern Idaho.

[Winterborn]

We will be luck to only have to worry about how far the DOW falls.

Time to head for the fallout shelters. Or Northern Idaho.

We have plenty of old missile silos up here that are available.

[AZGrizFan]

50%?

Major buying opportunity when that happens.

I think in the lead up to the CHI-NA olympics I’ll be moving all my positions to cash.

[Ibanez]

When China invades, how far does the Dow fall? 10%? 20% 30%?

Keep an eye on SPY and buy some puts...no reason why we can't profit off the turmoil. That's the American Way.

[andy7171]

50%?

We will be luck to only have to worry about how far the DOW falls.

This

[AZGrizFan]

When China invades, how far does the Dow fall? 10%? 20% 30%?

Keep an eye on SPY and buy some puts...no reason why we can't profit off the turmoil. That's the American Way.

I already have a heavy investment in SPY. But not puts....

[Ibanez]

Keep an eye on SPY and buy some puts...no reason why we can't profit off the turmoil. That's the American Way.

I already have a heavy investment in SPY. But not puts....

My man.

There was a meme stock that tanked on Monday or Tuesday (and it tanked b/c some shady capital firm manipulated the stock). I bought a bunch of calls and so far it's doing well. if it reaches the ATH today or the next trading day, i'll sell.

[CID1990]

Jazz Shaw over at HotAir has been on fire lately and I’ve posted more stuff from that single source than I would like to... but I do feel they have their finger squarely on the conservative middle way

So, here’s today’s piece on how China’s control of global supply lines is one of their greatest weapons and how our consumerist, non-labor based society is largely responsible

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2021/10/14 ... es-n422344


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[Ivytalk]

Jazz Shaw over at HotAir has been on fire lately and I’ve posted more stuff from that single source than I would like to... but I do feel they have their finger squarely on the conservative middle way

So, here’s today’s piece on how China’s control of global supply lines is one of their greatest weapons and how our consumerist, non-labor based society is largely responsible

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2021/10/14 ... es-n422344


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I’m down with that. It has boggled my mind that the US has lagged so far behind in chip production. We invented the fucking things!

[Winterborn]

Jazz Shaw over at HotAir has been on fire lately and I’ve posted more stuff from that single source than I would like to... but I do feel they have their finger squarely on the conservative middle way

So, here’s today’s piece on how China’s control of global supply lines is one of their greatest weapons and how our consumerist, non-labor based society is largely responsible

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2021/10/14 ... es-n422344


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I’m down with that. It has boggled my mind that the US has lagged so far behind in chip production. We invented the fucking things!

I think there are two plants planned to be built in the SouthWest, not sure on the size though.

[CID1990]

Jazz Shaw over at HotAir has been on fire lately and I’ve posted more stuff from that single source than I would like to... but I do feel they have their finger squarely on the conservative middle way

So, here’s today’s piece on how China’s control of global supply lines is one of their greatest weapons and how our consumerist, non-labor based society is largely responsible

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2021/10/14 ... es-n422344


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I’m down with that. It has boggled my mind that the US has lagged so far behind in chip production. We invented the fucking things!

Chips are like yachts... they require a certain infrastructure and skilled labor base to make... which is why they are both made in Taiwan.


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