2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

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∞∞∞ wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:48 am
BDKJMU wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:05 pm

And if there's was no China Virus, the economy would be roaring, Biden would have to come out and campaign, and we would be looking at a Trump landslide.
Yup, Trump and his merry band of f*uck-ups did what f*ck-ups do: f*ck-up.

All they had to do was listen to science and say, "wear a mask and stay 6 feet apart."

But that's not what happened. People are dying, the economy is in the sh*tter, and there's civil unrest throughout. And now we'll likely have to deal with white supremacists with a dumb name and an election where the results are being undermined.

Y'all truly made America great again. Best democracy I've ever lived through. Good job. :clap:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by 89Hen »

∞∞∞ wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:48 am
Yup, Trump and his merry band of f*uck-ups did what f*ck-ups do: f*ck-up.

All they had to do was listen to science and say, "wear a mask and stay 6 feet apart."

But that's not what happened. People are dying, the economy is in the sh*tter, and there's civil unrest throughout. And now we'll likely have to deal with white supremacists with a dumb name and an election where the results are being undermined.

Y'all truly made America great again. Best democracy I've ever lived through. Good job. :clap:
TDS on 11. :lol:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

With respect to the idea that Trump getting 304 electoral votes was extremely unlikely, here is a graph from the 2016 538 forecast showing the results of repeated simulations:

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Anybody who knows how to read a graph like that knows that it is not correct to say that the 538 forecast indicated that Trump getting >304 electoral votes was extremely unlikely.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »



:lol:

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

Baldy wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:24 pm


:lol:
Here's the difference:

https://www.newsweek.com/biden-campaign ... nt-1527230

Trump doesn't do that. He equivocates. He also does stuff like act like he doesn't know who David Duke is when he obviously does and act like he's never heard of the Proud Boys when he obviously has.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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N.J. is sending out mail-in ballots to dead and out-of-state voters.
...Mallach’s experience highlights the complexities of maintaining updated voter rolls in New Jersey, an issue that’s become readily transparent as the state has sent out mail-in ballots to approximately 5.7 million active registered voters. Some ballots have gone out to people who moved out of state, some family members have received ballots for relatives who have died, while others have received duplicate ballots with the same name, voters and election officials said.

The system is designed to protect voters from being wrongly purged from the rolls, officials said, but that same system keeps voters on the rolls longer than they should be because it relies heavily on voters to alert counties when they move or when a family member has died. That frequently doesn’t happen, county officials say. While the voting rolls may have been previously outdated, this is the first time the state has sent out unsolicited ballots in an effort to protect people from COVID-19 while still encouraging voting during the pandemic....
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nj-is ... r-BB19CtHl

Going to be seeing more and more stories like this..
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:48 pm
Baldy wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:24 pm


:lol:
Here's the difference:

https://www.newsweek.com/biden-campaign ... nt-1527230

Trump doesn't do that. He equivocates. He also does stuff like act like he doesn't know who David Duke is when he obviously does and act like he's never heard of the Proud Boys when he obviously has.
Orly?

To quote your friends at FACTCHECK.ORG, and we all know how you love your friends at Fact Check. :nod:

Trump Has Condemned White Supremacists
Former Vice President Joe Biden wrongly claimed President Donald Trump has “yet once to condemn white supremacy, the neo-Nazis.”

Trump drew criticism for his condemnation of “hatred, bigotry and violence on many sides” after a rally organized by a white nationalist in Charlottesville in 2017, and for saying there were “very fine people on both sides.” But, contrary to Biden’s claim, the president twice specifically condemned white supremacists and neo-Nazis, and he has repeated that condemnation since.

On ABC’s “This Week,” Biden was asked what the consequences would be of a Trump victory in 2020. Biden responded that Trump would “go on dividing us based on race.”

Biden has said that Trump’s comments in the aftermath of the Charlottesville rally convinced him to run for president. In a video announcing his candidacy, Biden said Trump’s “very fine people on both sides” comment “assigned a moral equivalence between those spreading hate and those with the courage to stand against it” and “shocked the conscience of the nation.”

Trump has said his “very fine people” comment referred not to white supremacists and neo-Nazis but to “people that went because they felt very strongly about the monument to Robert E. Lee — a great general, whether you like it or not.” Some have argued that explanation doesn’t hold up, because Trump referred in that statement to a protest “the night before” when — it was widely reported — white nationalists burned tiki torches and chanted anti-Semitic and white nationalist slogans. We’ll leave it to readers to make up their minds on Trump’s remarks, but Biden’s comment that Trump has “yet once to condemn white supremacy” is not accurate.

Let’s revisit Trump’s comments in the days after the Charlottesville rally. That rally turned violent, and one person, Heather Heyer, was killed and many others injured, when a man with a history of making racist comments plowed his car into a group of counterprotesters.

The day of that incident Trump said, “We condemn in the strongest possible terms this egregious display of hatred, bigotry and violence, on many sides. On many sides.” Trump said he had spoken to Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, and “we agreed that the hate and the division must stop, and must stop right now. We have to come together as Americans with love for our nation and true affection — really — and I say this so strongly — true affection for each other.”

Two days later, on Aug. 14, 2017, Trump issued a statement from the White House, and referred to “KKK, neo-Nazis, white supremacists, and other hate groups that are repugnant to everything we hold dear as Americans.”
Trump was calling white supremacists repugnant long before Sleepy Joe.

EDIT:
Please show me where Trump stated that he didn't know who David Duke was. Here he is DENOUNCING David Duke during a debate in 2016.


Why do you idiots make me defend this guy? Jesus H. Christ you people are raving fucking lunatics. :lol:

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Re: 2020 General Election

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US economy adds 661,000 jobs in September amid coronavirus pressure
https://nypost.com/2020/10/02/jobs-repo ... 9-percent/

The V recovery has started to taper:
-No new stimulus (I'm sure we'll get one after the election).
-Blue states remaining shutdown, with the claim by donks in those states its due to the China Virus. That's secondary. The main reason they are remaining partially shuttered is to intentionally delay the economic recovery in order to hinder Trump's reelection chances . Watch soon after the election all these blue states (NY, NJ, CA, IL, VA, etc) open up to the same degree most of the red states have already.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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BDKJMU wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:39 am
US economy adds 661,000 jobs in September amid coronavirus pressure
https://nypost.com/2020/10/02/jobs-repo ... 9-percent/

The V recovery has started to taper:
-No new stimulus (I'm sure we'll get one after the election).
-Blue states remaining shutdown, with the claim by donks in those states its due to the China Virus. That's secondary. The main reason they are remaining partially shuttered is to intentionally delay the economic recovery in order to hinder Trump's reelection chances . Watch soon after the election all these blue states (NY, NJ, CA, IL, VA, etc) open up to the same degree most of the red states have already.
If Biden wins, they can reopen and claim Biden caused the economic windfall. :lol:

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Re: 2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

SDHornet wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:31 pm
BDKJMU wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:39 am
US economy adds 661,000 jobs in September amid coronavirus pressure
https://nypost.com/2020/10/02/jobs-repo ... 9-percent/

The V recovery has started to taper:
-No new stimulus (I'm sure we'll get one after the election).
-Blue states remaining shutdown, with the claim by donks in those states its due to the China Virus. That's secondary. The main reason they are remaining partially shuttered is to intentionally delay the economic recovery in order to hinder Trump's reelection chances . Watch soon after the election all these blue states (NY, NJ, CA, IL, VA, etc) open up to the same degree most of the red states have already.
If Biden wins, they can reopen and claim Biden caused the economic windfall. :lol:
Absolutely. But they’re going to reopen regardless next month, becauae even if Trump wins, there isn’t much benefit to staying shutdown past the election. Plus they’ll start feeling more heat from the general populace and within their own party.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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BDKJMU wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:37 pm
SDHornet wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:31 pm


If Biden wins, they can reopen and claim Biden caused the economic windfall. :lol:
Absolutely. But they’re going to reopen regardless next month, becauae even if Trump wins, there isn’t much benefit to staying shutdown past the election. Plus they’ll start feeling more heat from the general populace and within their own party.
You are overestimating the competency of the DNC.

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Re: 2020 General Election

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SDHornet wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:33 pm
At this point anyone who doesn’t think mass unsolicted mail in is a complete farce, needs to have their head examined.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

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If anything good could come out of this election (and don't worry, it won't happen, so nothing good will come out of this) it would be a renewed, bipartisan effort to standardize voting nationwide (I know states ultimately control voting so at least coming up with proposed standards) that the federal government could help the states adopt. It's sheer lunacy that we have 50 different systems of voting, and that includes everything from the voting length of time, the location of voting, the method of voting, the distribution of polling places, the requirement for ID for voting status, the method/timing to count the votes, etc. I know both major parties have zero interest in correcting or standardizing any of this, as the fractured chaos of it fits nicely into both parties being able to work it to their advantage to win elections, which is their primary goal, but it would go a long way to ensuring that everyone who's eligible to vote can easily vote and that everyone's vote isn't diluted by intentional or unintentional errors. I could get behind someone who would champion that cause.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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GannonFan wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:55 pm
If anything good could come out of this election (and don't worry, it won't happen, so nothing good will come out of this) it would be a renewed, bipartisan effort to standardize voting nationwide (I know states ultimately control voting so at least coming up with proposed standards) that the federal government could help the states adopt. It's sheer lunacy that we have 50 different systems of voting, and that includes everything from the voting length of time, the location of voting, the method of voting, the distribution of polling places, the requirement for ID for voting status, the method/timing to count the votes, etc. I know both major parties have zero interest in correcting or standardizing any of this, as the fractured chaos of it fits nicely into both parties being able to work it to their advantage to win elections, which is their primary goal, but it would go a long way to ensuring that everyone who's eligible to vote can easily vote and that everyone's vote isn't diluted by intentional or unintentional errors. I could get behind someone who would champion that cause.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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SDHornet wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:33 pm
Assuming that is true (and we don't know that it is), there are controls in place to make sure ballots that do get sent back are legitimate and won't be counted if they are not.

As I've said many times before: The biggest problem with mail in ballots is not fraud. Fraud is difficult. Not impossible. But difficult.

The biggest problem is that people will not have their votes counted. They can make mistakes. the mail can get screwed up.

If Frank A. lives at an address and moves then a ballot is sent to him at his old address, it is very unlikely that someone else is going to cast that ballot in his name in his stead. But he doesn't get the ballot.

This whole thing of raising doubt about mail in ballots is a total crock.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

The newest 538 Election Forecast page at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/ has one really good graphic that gives an idea of just how much uncertainty there is. I really do not think most people understand.

As of now the graphic looks like the image below. It's a sample of 100 simulations they ran. If you go to the page you can hover over each dot and see the results of the simulation for that dot. But here is the bottom line:

10 of the dots...or 10% since there are 100 of them...represent scenarios in which, if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would win by more than 77 electoral votes. So you would not be wrong in betting that if you had to bet that Trump would not win by more than 77 electoral votes. But, at the same time, I don't think you would say him winning by more than 77 electoral votes is "extremely unlikely."

Here's another way to look at it: If you constructed a 90% confidence interval for the outcome, it would be from Trump winning by 113 electoral votes to Biden winning by 368 electoral votes. So if you went by the conventions of statistics Trump winning by 77 electoral votes would not be considered remarkable at all. It is well within the range of reasonably expected outcomes.

The reason I reference 77 electoral votes is because that's the margin by which Trump beat Clinton. When he did that, the election eve 538 forecast showed 71% confidence that Clinton would win. The stuff I just discussed with respect to the current 538 display below is associated with 79% confidence that, if the election were held tomorrow, Biden would win. Trump winning by 77 electoral votes in 2016 was even less remarkable than Trump winning by 77 electoral votes would be if the election were held tomorrow. It was not nearly the surprise that popular perception suggests. An upset, yes. An unbelievably unlikely outcome that should make people think the polls were completely whacked, no.

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Re: 2020 General Election

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JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:25 pm
As I've said many times before: The biggest problem with mail in ballots is not fraud. Fraud is difficult. Not impossible. But difficult.

The biggest problem is that people will not have their votes counted. They can make mistakes. the mail can get screwed up.

If Frank A. lives at an address and moves then a ballot is sent to him at his old address, it is very unlikely that someone else is going to cast that ballot in his name in his stead. But he doesn't get the ballot.

This whole thing of raising doubt about mail in ballots is a total crock.
So you describe problems and then say there are no problems. Check. :coffee:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

89Hen wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:49 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:25 pm
As I've said many times before: The biggest problem with mail in ballots is not fraud. Fraud is difficult. Not impossible. But difficult.

The biggest problem is that people will not have their votes counted. They can make mistakes. the mail can get screwed up.

If Frank A. lives at an address and moves then a ballot is sent to him at his old address, it is very unlikely that someone else is going to cast that ballot in his name in his stead. But he doesn't get the ballot.

This whole thing of raising doubt about mail in ballots is a total crock.
So you describe problems and then say there are no problems. Check. :coffee:
I did not say there were zero problems. It's same old same old with the Republicans using the "voter fraud" bogeyman to justify voter suppression efforts. There are problems that are expressed at a minimal frequency that is very unlikely to have an impact on who wins or loses an election. There are also problems like that with ordinary voting.

To the extent that there ARE problems with vote by mail, they are predominately NOT fraud problems. And we are in a situation where those problems of not having votes counted are being exacerbated by Republican efforts to suppress vote by mail because they think that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail this time. It's as corrupt a situation as it gets.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:58 pm
89Hen wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:49 pm


So you describe problems and then say there are no problems. Check. :coffee:
I did not say there were zero problems. It's same old same old with the Republicans using the "voter fraud" bogeyman to justify voter suppression efforts. There are problems that are expressed at a minimal frequency that is very unlikely to have an impact on who wins or loses an election. There are also problems like that with ordinary voting.

To the extent that there ARE problems with vote by mail, they are predominately NOT fraud problems. And we are in a situation where those problems of not having votes counted are being exacerbated by Republican efforts to suppress vote by mail because they think that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail this time. It's as corrupt a situation as it gets.
So you inject the voter suppression myth to deflect the voter fraud charge.

Typical JSO. :lol:

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Re: 2020 General Election

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JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:58 pm
89Hen wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:49 pm


So you describe problems and then say there are no problems. Check. :coffee:
I did not say there were zero problems. It's same old same old with the Republicans using the "voter fraud" bogeyman to justify voter suppression efforts. There are problems that are expressed at a minimal frequency that is very unlikely to have an impact on who wins or loses an election. There are also problems like that with ordinary voting.

To the extent that there ARE problems with vote by mail, they are predominately NOT fraud problems. And we are in a situation where those problems of not having votes counted are being exacerbated by Republican efforts to suppress vote by mail because they think that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail this time. It's as corrupt a situation as it gets.
If no one ever looks for fraud, and if there's no way to detect fraud, how can we be sure there is no fraud? We were told countlessly in the runup to the 2016 election that our system was pure and could never be impacted by a foreign power, and then we just spent the last 4 years talking about how Russia stole our election.

If there's ballot harvesting, which there is in many places, and if ballots can be in someone else's control between the time the voter cast the ballot and the time that the election official counts the vote, then fraud can happen. It's like why the airports ask if your bag has been in your possession the entire time since you packed it. There are clearly holes in our electoral system that should be fixed - denying that the holes exist, or worse, admitting that there are holes but because we haven't caught anyone using those holes (or we did catch them but it's probably just an isolated event, nothing to see here thing) then we won't fix the holes, is asinine.

Republicans are full of crap for trying to make it harder for people to vote and Democrats are full of crap for trying to let anyone vote even if they aren't eligible, and they both do their crap because they want to win elections and be in power, the voters be damned. Fix the system and stop deflecting that the system is either not broken, or that no one would ever possibly take advantage of a broken system.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by 89Hen »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:58 pm
It's same old same old with the Democrats using the "voter suppression" bogeyman to justify voter fraud efforts.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

GannonFan wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:34 pm

If no one ever looks for fraud, and if there's no way to detect fraud, how can we be sure there is no fraud? \
The Republicans have been looking for fraud for decades. I would link the Washington Post op ed by Ben Ginsburg but it requires a subscription. So I'll link this reference to it:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09 ... -lies.html

It's just not a significant factor. It's a White Whale. The premise that "no one ever looks for voter fraud" is false. People have looked for it. And they have not been able to identify it as a significant factor.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

And BTW the voter suppression effort on the part of Republicans is obvious. Like this:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/91928379 ... -fight-bac

I don't think I even need to comment on what's obviously going on there. But I will. Highly populated areas are more likely to vote Democrat. Rural areas are more likely to vote Republican. The order will obviously impede voting in highly populated areas. To suggest allowing only ONE drop box in a county (Harris) of almost 5 million people and 1,777 square miles absurd.

This is just one thing. It is OBVIOUS that Republicans are trying to suppress voting among groups likely to vote Democrat.

There is no contest. The Republican claims of massive voter fraud are false. The Democrat claims of Republican voter suppression efforts are true.
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