2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:27 pm
And BTW the voter suppression effort on the part of Republicans is obvious. Like this:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/91928379 ... -fight-bac

I don't think I even need to comment on what's obviously going on there. But I will. Highly populated areas are more likely to vote Democrat. Rural areas are more likely to vote Republican. The order will obviously impede voting in highly populated areas. To suggest allowing only ONE drop box in a county (Harris) of almost 5 million people and 1,777 square miles absurd.

This is just one thing. It is OBVIOUS that Republicans are trying to suppress voting among groups likely to vote Democrat.

There is no contest. The Republican claims of massive voter fraud are false. The Democrat claims of Republican voter suppression efforts are true.
There are thousands of drop boxes all over the county. They're called mail boxes. Mail in ballots...mail boxes, they kinda go hand in hand. :dunce:

Your 'voter suppression' strawman is a myth.

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:27 pm
And BTW the voter suppression effort on the part of Republicans is obvious. Like this:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/91928379 ... -fight-bac

I don't think I even need to comment on what's obviously going on there. But I will. Highly populated areas are more likely to vote Democrat. Rural areas are more likely to vote Republican. The order will obviously impede voting in highly populated areas. To suggest allowing only ONE drop box in a county (Harris) of almost 5 million people and 1,777 square miles absurd.

This is just one thing. It is OBVIOUS that Republicans are trying to suppress voting among groups likely to vote Democrat.

There is no contest. The Republican claims of massive voter fraud are false. The Democrat claims of Republican voter suppression efforts are true.
Republicans might think Texas is legitimately in play.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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Trump after COVID!

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by mainejeff »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:22 pm
Trump after COVID!

He wishes. :-P
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SDHornet »

GannonFan wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:34 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:58 pm


I did not say there were zero problems. It's same old same old with the Republicans using the "voter fraud" bogeyman to justify voter suppression efforts. There are problems that are expressed at a minimal frequency that is very unlikely to have an impact on who wins or loses an election. There are also problems like that with ordinary voting.

To the extent that there ARE problems with vote by mail, they are predominately NOT fraud problems. And we are in a situation where those problems of not having votes counted are being exacerbated by Republican efforts to suppress vote by mail because they think that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail this time. It's as corrupt a situation as it gets.
If no one ever looks for fraud, and if there's no way to detect fraud, how can we be sure there is no fraud? We were told countlessly in the runup to the 2016 election that our system was pure and could never be impacted by a foreign power, and then we just spent the last 4 years talking about how Russia stole our election.

If there's ballot harvesting, which there is in many places, and if ballots can be in someone else's control between the time the voter cast the ballot and the time that the election official counts the vote, then fraud can happen. It's like why the airports ask if your bag has been in your possession the entire time since you packed it. There are clearly holes in our electoral system that should be fixed - denying that the holes exist, or worse, admitting that there are holes but because we haven't caught anyone using those holes (or we did catch them but it's probably just an isolated event, nothing to see here thing) then we won't fix the holes, is asinine.

Republicans are full of crap for trying to make it harder for people to vote and Democrats are full of crap for trying to let anyone vote even if they aren't eligible, and they both do their crap because they want to win elections and be in power, the voters be damned. Fix the system and stop deflecting that the system is either not broken, or that no one would ever possibly take advantage of a broken system.
:nod:

Purging the voter rolls of duplications and deceased folks is a simple way to reduce a lot of the potential fraud out there. Hey JSO, care to guess which party is against this cleanup? :coffee:

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

Baldy wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:39 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:27 pm
And BTW the voter suppression effort on the part of Republicans is obvious. Like this:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/91928379 ... -fight-bac

I don't think I even need to comment on what's obviously going on there. But I will. Highly populated areas are more likely to vote Democrat. Rural areas are more likely to vote Republican. The order will obviously impede voting in highly populated areas. To suggest allowing only ONE drop box in a county (Harris) of almost 5 million people and 1,777 square miles absurd.

This is just one thing. It is OBVIOUS that Republicans are trying to suppress voting among groups likely to vote Democrat.

There is no contest. The Republican claims of massive voter fraud are false. The Democrat claims of Republican voter suppression efforts are true.
There are thousands of drop boxes all over the county. They're called mail boxes. Mail in ballots...mail boxes, they kinda go hand in hand. :dunce:

Your 'voter suppression' strawman is a myth.
Republicans are also trying to muck up mail delivery.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:56 pm
Baldy wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:39 pm

There are thousands of drop boxes all over the county. They're called mail boxes. Mail in ballots...mail boxes, they kinda go hand in hand. :dunce:

Your 'voter suppression' strawman is a myth.
Republicans are also trying to muck up mail delivery.
Sure they are. :coffee:

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Re: 2020 General Election

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mainejeff wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:52 pm
SeattleGriz wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:22 pm
Trump after COVID!

He wishes. :-P
It's true.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:22 pm
Trump after COVID!

Odds are he will live through it. But he'll still be an obese blob who has the world's ugliest hair and a really tacky looking spray on tan.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

Baldy wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:27 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:56 pm


Republicans are also trying to muck up mail delivery.
Sure they are. :coffee:
Fake news!
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

Not an average of polls but Biden up 14 in general, showing leads or increasing leads in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Conditions in the country are volatile so no reason to believe polls cant be, but signals are not pointing in Trump’s direction.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

Baldy wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:39 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:27 pm
And BTW the voter suppression effort on the part of Republicans is obvious. Like this:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/91928379 ... -fight-bac

I don't think I even need to comment on what's obviously going on there. But I will. Highly populated areas are more likely to vote Democrat. Rural areas are more likely to vote Republican. The order will obviously impede voting in highly populated areas. To suggest allowing only ONE drop box in a county (Harris) of almost 5 million people and 1,777 square miles absurd.

This is just one thing. It is OBVIOUS that Republicans are trying to suppress voting among groups likely to vote Democrat.

There is no contest. The Republican claims of massive voter fraud are false. The Democrat claims of Republican voter suppression efforts are true.
There are thousands of drop boxes all over the county. They're called mail boxes. Mail in ballots...mail boxes, they kinda go hand in hand. :dunce:

Your 'voter suppression' strawman is a myth.
In addition to mailboxes, I have two ballot boxes within a mile from my house. One of them is located at my local grocery store and can be dropped off as you drive by.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:03 am
Baldy wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:39 pm

There are thousands of drop boxes all over the county. They're called mail boxes. Mail in ballots...mail boxes, they kinda go hand in hand. :dunce:

Your 'voter suppression' strawman is a myth.
In addition to mailboxes, I have two ballot boxes within a mile from my house. One of them is located at my local grocery store and can be dropped off as you drive by.
Well I guess that solves it then. :lol:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

kalm wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:42 am
Not an average of polls but Biden up 14 in general, showing leads or increasing leads in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Conditions in the country are volatile so no reason to believe polls cant be, but signals are not pointing in Trump’s direction.
Released the same day, 10/1, Biden up 3 in nationally, his lead narrowing after the debate.
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-bide ... tipp-poll/

The latest poll in Michigan, Trafalgar, has Trump up 1. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would win Michigan? Trafalgar.

The latest Trafalgar poll in PA (mid Sept), has Biden up 2. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would PA.? Trafalgar.

Now I expect a full JSO dissertation on why the NBC national poll is good, and the IBD-TIPP is bad, and why Trafalgar is bad, Nate Silver blah, blah blah, 538 blah, blah, blah..
Last edited by BDKJMU on Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

BDKJMU wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:30 pm
kalm wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:42 am
Not an average of polls but Biden up 14 in general, showing leads or increasing leads in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Conditions in the country are volatile so no reason to believe polls cant be, but signals are not pointing in Trump’s direction.
Released the same day, 10/1, Biden up 3 in nationally, the his lead narrowing after the debate.
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-bide ... tipp-poll/

The latest poll in Michigan, Trafalgar, has Trump up 1. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would win Michigan? Trafalgar.

The latest Trafalgar poll in PA (mid Sept), has Biden up 2. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would PA.? Trafalgar.

Now I expect a full JSO dissertation on why the NBC national poll is good, and the IBD-TIPP is bad, and why Trafalgar is bad, Nate Silver blah, blah blah, 538 blah, blah, blah..
At this stage of the campaign, any poll that polls registered voters instead of likely voters is pretty much useless...NBC.

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

BDKJMU wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:30 pm
kalm wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:42 am
Not an average of polls but Biden up 14 in general, showing leads or increasing leads in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Conditions in the country are volatile so no reason to believe polls cant be, but signals are not pointing in Trump’s direction.
Released the same day, 10/1, Biden up 3 in nationally, his lead narrowing after the debate.
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-bide ... tipp-poll/

The latest poll in Michigan, Trafalgar, has Trump up 1. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would win Michigan? Trafalgar.

The latest Trafalgar poll in PA (mid Sept), has Biden up 2. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would PA.? Trafalgar.

Now I expect a full JSO dissertation on why the NBC national poll is good, and the IBD-TIPP is bad, and why Trafalgar is bad, Nate Silver blah, blah blah, 538 blah, blah, blah..
The IBD/TIPP poll is comparable to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll in the 538 ratings. NBC News/Wall Street Journal is rated A- while IBD/TIPP is rated A/B. If you read the 538 documentation, you will see that "A/B" means it's tough to tell because there haven't yet been enough of them to make a firm assessment but there are strong initial results. The NBC News Wall/Street poll, according to the 538 analysis, has had a 0.6 bias towards Democrats while the IBD/TIPP poll has had a 0.9 bias towards Republicans.

The Trafalgar poll conducted the latest polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Exit polling indicated that those who decided very late broke for Trump. Having said that, the Trafalgar poll has a bad grade historically at C-. It has not historically been one of the more reiable polls.

Right now the 538 election forecast makes Biden the favorite assuming people will be able to vote. But the 90% confidence interval is anywhere from Trump by 132 electoral votes through Biden by 344 electoral votes. If the election were to be held tomorrow, it would be too close to call in the electoral college. That's assuming everyone gets to vote and there are no problems associated with the COVID thing.

There is very high confidence that Biden would win the popular vote if the election were held tomorrow. I'd say the 90% confidence interval on that is something like Biden by 2 through Biden by 14.

Still, because of the archaic electoral college system, I'd say that if the election were held tomorrow it would be too close to call by the conventions used in statistics.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:15 pm
BDKJMU wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:30 pm


Released the same day, 10/1, Biden up 3 in nationally, his lead narrowing after the debate.
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-bide ... tipp-poll/

The latest poll in Michigan, Trafalgar, has Trump up 1. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would win Michigan? Trafalgar.

The latest Trafalgar poll in PA (mid Sept), has Biden up 2. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would PA.? Trafalgar.

Now I expect a full JSO dissertation on why the NBC national poll is good, and the IBD-TIPP is bad, and why Trafalgar is bad, Nate Silver blah, blah blah, 538 blah, blah, blah..
The IBD/TIPP poll is comparable to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll in the 538 ratings. NBC News/Wall Street Journal is rated A- while IBD/TIPP is rated A/B. If you read the 538 documentation, you will see that "A/B" means it's tough to tell because there haven't yet been enough of them to make a firm assessment but there are strong initial results. The NBC News Wall/Street poll, according to the 538 analysis, has had a 0.6 bias towards Democrats while the IBD/TIPP poll has had a 0.9 bias towards Republicans.

The Trafalgar poll conducted the latest polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Exit polling indicated that those who decided very late broke for Trump. Having said that, the Trafalgar poll has a bad grade historically at C-. It has not historically been one of the more reiable polls.

Right now the 538 election forecast makes Biden the favorite assuming people will be able to vote. But the 90% confidence interval is anywhere from Trump by 132 electoral votes through Biden by 344 electoral votes. If the election were to be held tomorrow, it would be too close to call in the electoral college. That's assuming everyone gets to vote and there are no problems associated with the COVID thing.

There is very high confidence that Biden would win the popular vote if the election were held tomorrow. I'd say the 90% confidence interval on that is something like Biden by 2 through Biden by 14.

Still, because of the archaic electoral college system, I'd say that if the election were held tomorrow it would be too close to call by the conventions used in statistics.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:15 pm
BDKJMU wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:30 pm


Released the same day, 10/1, Biden up 3 in nationally, his lead narrowing after the debate.
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-bide ... tipp-poll/

The latest poll in Michigan, Trafalgar, has Trump up 1. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would win Michigan? Trafalgar.

The latest Trafalgar poll in PA (mid Sept), has Biden up 2. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would PA.? Trafalgar.

Now I expect a full JSO dissertation on why the NBC national poll is good, and the IBD-TIPP is bad, and why Trafalgar is bad, Nate Silver blah, blah blah, 538 blah, blah, blah..
The IBD/TIPP poll is comparable to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll in the 538 ratings. NBC News/Wall Street Journal is rated A- while IBD/TIPP is rated A/B. If you read the 538 documentation, you will see that "A/B" means it's tough to tell because there haven't yet been enough of them to make a firm assessment but there are strong initial results. The NBC News Wall/Street poll, according to the 538 analysis, has had a 0.6 bias towards Democrats while the IBD/TIPP poll has had a 0.9 bias towards Republicans.

The Trafalgar poll conducted the latest polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Exit polling indicated that those who decided very late broke for Trump. Having said that, the Trafalgar poll has a bad grade historically at C-. It has not historically been one of the more reiable polls.

Right now the 538 election forecast makes Biden the favorite assuming people will be able to vote. But the 90% confidence interval is anywhere from Trump by 132 electoral votes through Biden by 344 electoral votes. If the election were to be held tomorrow, it would be too close to call in the electoral college. That's assuming everyone gets to vote and there are no problems associated with the COVID thing.

There is very high confidence that Biden would win the popular vote if the election were held tomorrow. I'd say the 90% confidence interval on that is something like Biden by 2 through Biden by 14.

Still, because of the archaic electoral college system, I'd say that if the election were held tomorrow it would be too close to call by the conventions used in statistics.
The WSJ/NBC poll is trash because it is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. It also over samples Donks by at least 13%. It's useless.

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Re: 2020 General Election

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30 days to go till the election..
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Re: 2020 General Election

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JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:20 pm
GannonFan wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:34 pm

If no one ever looks for fraud, and if there's no way to detect fraud, how can we be sure there is no fraud? \
The Republicans have been looking for fraud for decades. I would link the Washington Post op ed by Ben Ginsburg but it requires a subscription. So I'll link this reference to it:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09 ... -lies.html

It's just not a significant factor. It's a White Whale. The premise that "no one ever looks for voter fraud" is false. People have looked for it. And they have not been able to identify it as a significant factor.
There is literally no way to catch fraud after the fact, unless someone videos themselves committing the fraud. Heck, in PA, there wasn't even a way to do recounts until this election - you literally pressed a button, hoped your vote was counted correctly, and walked away. No confirmation of who you picked, no way to check that the vote was tallied correctly, and no paper trail to even do a recount. And that was the case through 2016. The system we have for voting is absolutely terrible - again, the GOP is wrong for suppressing votes, and the Dems are wrong for refusing safeguards to make sure only legitimate voters can vote and that votes can't be tampered with. Until that gets fixed, we'll keep having these talks and people will keep have less and less faith in government. Both parties love the current corrupt system because they can use it to their advantage to try to swing elections and get power, because that's what they're all about.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Pwns »

Baldy wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:45 pm
The WSJ/NBC poll is trash because it is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. It also over samples Donks by at least 13%. It's useless.
I do seriously wonder about the sampling schemes and wondering if they go on assumptions that don't apply in this election.

I've never been polled on my presidential preferences and don't know a single person who has.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

GannonFan wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:02 am
JohnStOnge wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:20 pm


The Republicans have been looking for fraud for decades. I would link the Washington Post op ed by Ben Ginsburg but it requires a subscription. So I'll link this reference to it:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09 ... -lies.html

It's just not a significant factor. It's a White Whale. The premise that "no one ever looks for voter fraud" is false. People have looked for it. And they have not been able to identify it as a significant factor.
There is literally no way to catch fraud after the fact, unless someone videos themselves committing the fraud. Heck, in PA, there wasn't even a way to do recounts until this election - you literally pressed a button, hoped your vote was counted correctly, and walked away. No confirmation of who you picked, no way to check that the vote was tallied correctly, and no paper trail to even do a recount. And that was the case through 2016. The system we have for voting is absolutely terrible - again, the GOP is wrong for suppressing votes, and the Dems are wrong for refusing safeguards to make sure only legitimate voters can vote and that votes can't be tampered with. Until that gets fixed, we'll keep having these talks and people will keep have less and less faith in government. Both parties love the current corrupt system because they can use it to their advantage to try to swing elections and get power, because that's what they're all about.
Whenever you hear a Donk cry "voter suppression", it's almost always because GOP controlled states (like Georgia), who are actually maintaining, or attempting to maintain accurate voter registrations. When Georgia purges 500,000 voter registrations because people have died, moved 15 different times, gone to jail, or just decide not to participate any longer, Stacy Abrams' fat ass will get put on the TV and allowed to scream "voter suppression".

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by GannonFan »

Baldy wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:52 am
GannonFan wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:02 am


There is literally no way to catch fraud after the fact, unless someone videos themselves committing the fraud. Heck, in PA, there wasn't even a way to do recounts until this election - you literally pressed a button, hoped your vote was counted correctly, and walked away. No confirmation of who you picked, no way to check that the vote was tallied correctly, and no paper trail to even do a recount. And that was the case through 2016. The system we have for voting is absolutely terrible - again, the GOP is wrong for suppressing votes, and the Dems are wrong for refusing safeguards to make sure only legitimate voters can vote and that votes can't be tampered with. Until that gets fixed, we'll keep having these talks and people will keep have less and less faith in government. Both parties love the current corrupt system because they can use it to their advantage to try to swing elections and get power, because that's what they're all about.
Whenever you hear a Donk cry "voter suppression", it's almost always because GOP controlled states (like Georgia), who are actually maintaining, or attempting to maintain accurate voter registrations. When Georgia purges 500,000 voter registrations because people have died, moved 15 different times, gone to jail, or just decide not to participate any longer, Stacy Abrams' fat ass will get put on the TV and allowed to scream "voter suppression".
I get that, and there are certainly legit moves and policies that are implemented that are called voter suppression even though they aren't. However, there's certainly been steps made in some places to limit votes for Democrats, and legal ones such as gerrymandering. It happens, so why try to say it doesn't? I agree that people will inflate it out to be more than it is, but it happens. The bigger problem comes in the local aspects of elections - are there enough polling places, are there enough poll workers, etc. I don't like when that's called suppression because it just plainly isn't - some locales do a better job of planning for elections, while some do a poorer job of it. If you don't like the lines you have to wait in election after election, then get involved with the local politics and make sure it's something that gets changed. People falsely think that's a federal, party vs. party, thing, when it's really just local government not operating very well.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

Pwns wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:27 am
Baldy wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:45 pm
The WSJ/NBC poll is trash because it is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. It also over samples Donks by at least 13%. It's useless.
I do seriously wonder about the sampling schemes and wondering if they go on assumptions that don't apply in this election.

I've never been polled on my presidential preferences and don't know a single person who has.
I’ve had a couple voicemails on my landline this summer from public polling firms. Didn’t say what were polling. Blocked the #s. I never answer that phone and block any unrecognized numbers.

Same with cell phones if they don’t leave a voicemail/are spam. It seems to me they are polling whoever they can get willing to answer unrecognizable #s and be willing to be polled. Can’t be that accurate.
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Ibanez
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:47 am
Pwns wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:27 am


I do seriously wonder about the sampling schemes and wondering if they go on assumptions that don't apply in this election.

I've never been polled on my presidential preferences and don't know a single person who has.
I’ve had a couple voicemails on my landline this summer from public polling firms. Didn’t say what were polling. Blocked the #s. I never answer that phone and block any unrecognized numbers.

Same with cell phones if they don’t leave a voicemail/are spam. It seems to me they are polling whoever they can get willing to answer unrecognizable #s and be willing to be polled. Can’t be that accurate.
Also to get, for example, 500 res ponders they know that have to call 3000 people. It's casting a wide net. Something about statistics.....i dunno

I was called by a pollster 2 weeks ago. Answered every question honestly and it was only 5 minutes of my life. Not a big deal.
Turns out I might be a little gay. 89Hen 11/7/17

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